Proposal: Mitch Marner for Seth Jones

[6 Karlsson 5]

How did did you get chased away? Was asking for a rationale behind ranking Matthews as the 17th best centre causing you too much stress?



LOL. You guys are understandably stressed about losing Karlsson so I won't judge you by this ludicrous opinion. And BTW, the question was what would have to be added to Nylander to make it fair, or are you suggesting that Matthews would be the add?

There is not a realistic trade that can be built around either winger, in my opinion.

and my opinion is based off of eye test and advanced analytics, but yea bro, i'm so worried about karlsson it is altering my ability to think.
If you go through my post history, you will see i analyze all players the exact same way.

 

[NoName]

sens fan. AM for SJ is about as equal 1v1 as you can get. If I'm a GM of either team, i probably slightly favour AM, but it is hella close.

no, that is not the theory. It is basic stats. The more matthews plays, the more likely his per 60 numbers will regress to the mean

All the advanced stats, as well as both NHL player and hockey pundit perceptions (all posted perviously), suggest your opinions here are not very common among the experts.

In addition, the quality of the minutes Matthews plays, not whether their are more or less will likely be the big determining factor beyond his own elite skill in shaping his per 60 min stats. Given he now has lines around him that have Tavares and Kadri sucking up top checking lines, even with a moderate increase in TOI Matthews per 60 stats should rise this season since he won't have to constantly eat the top checking lines of the opposition, again. Not unless opposing teams want to let Tavares and to a lesser extent Kadri run wild over them.

 

[BAM]

Well, that playoff series( the only one that mattered) is conclusive proof that Matthews will never perform in the playoffs. Besides he will sign an offer sheet for 5000000 to play in Arizona. Marner plays on the wing and we don't like that so there.

It's funny how they reference the Boston series but completely ignore the Caps series against the president's trophy winners where he had 5 points (4 goals) in 6 games.

 

[Gary Nylund]

There is not a realistic trade that can be built around either winger, in my opinion.

Fair enough.

and my opinion is based off of eye test and advanced analytics, but yea bro, i'm so worried about karlsson it is altering my ability to think.
If you go through my post history, you will see i analyze all players the exact same way.

Eh, I was just kidding about Karlsson, don't be so sensitive. As far your advanced analytics, I call BS. Feel free to prove me wrong by showing your work (funny how all the people bleating 17th best centre flee in terror when asked to do this, perhaps you'll be different).

As far as your post history, obviously time consuming and not worth the effort - I'm just not that interested. I'll settle for judging your posts on their own merit.

 

[NoName]

How did did you get chased away? Was asking for a rationale behind ranking Matthews as the 17th best centre causing you too much stress?

17th? I saw people here repeatedly saying "20-25th". Funnily enough they never gave me a proper response when I asked them to list the 20+ centres they would rank above Auston Matthews

Well, we just gave them a boatload of advanced and traditional stats to look at as well as media and NHL player surveys all demonstrating that Matthews is regarded as an elite centre and overall one of the absolute most valuable players in the NHL. We are open to rebuttals.

 

[Leaf Fans]

It's funny how they reference the Boston series but completely ignore the Caps series against the president's trophy winners where he had 5 points (4 goals) in 6 games.

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There has to be some way to devalue him. Crow, I have heard, is not the best tasting bird even with all that extra salt.

 

[Gary Nylund]

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There has to be some way to devalue him. Crow, I have heard, is not the best tasting bird even with all that extra salt.

They should try hot sauce. Hot sauce makes almost everything taste better!

 

[NoName]

.
There has to be some way to devalue him. Crow, I have heard, is not the best tasting bird even with all that extra salt.

They should try hot sauce. Hot sauce makes almost everything taste better!

It is worth remembering that these are some of the same fans who said Connor McDavid wasn't worth trading Jones for. They might have a slightly jaundiced view with their evaluations of other teams' talent.

 

[tacogeoff]

Columbus says no quite easily. Toronto would have to add.

 

[NoName]

Columbus says no quite easily. Toronto would have to add.

Yeah, that does seem to be the consensus that I have run across and upon after all these pages, listening to the arguments, it seems relatively sound.
Maybe this changes after next season, but for now 1-for-1 Marner for Jones seems like something the Leafs would agree to but not the Jackets.

 

[6 Karlsson 5]

Fair enough.



Eh, I was just kidding about Karlsson, don't be so sensitive. As far your advanced analytics, I call BS. Feel free to prove me wrong by showing your work (funny how all the people bleating 17th best centre flee in terror when asked to do this, perhaps you'll be different).

As far as your post history, obviously time consuming and not worth the effort - I'm just not that interested. I'll settle for judging your posts on their own merit.

Ok, have you seen the goals above replacement model that suggests TO has the best 1-2 C punch in the league? I think it is by Bill Comeau. That exact same model suggests Seth Jones was the 2nd best dman last year. Corsica also has GAR model (WAR converted to GAR). That model likes Matthews more than Jones, but the d rankings in that model are really weird, but i still have to give credit to AM, and i have only read half the write up on the model. It's kinda long, and i started doing it at work, so i didn't have much time.
Andrew Berkshires' model had Jones as the 14th best dman before this season. After this one, he would most likely move into the top 10.
Basically jones is somewhere in the top 10 dmen (5-10), where matthews is around the 10th best C (8-12). Thus, i think they are pretty equal, but AM looks really good to me, not that jones does not, so i pick him

 

[BAM]

Ok, have you seen the goals above replacement model that suggests TO has the best 1-2 C punch in the league? I think it is by Bill Comeau. That exact same model suggests Seth Jones was the 2nd best dman last year. Corsica also has GAR model (WAR converted to GAR). That model likes Matthews more than Jones, but the d rankings in that model are really weird, but i still have to give credit to AM, and i have only read half the write up on the model. It's kinda long, and i started doing it at work, so i didn't have much time.
Andrew Berkshires' model had Jones as the 14th best dman before this season. After this one, he would most likely move into the top 10.
Basically jones is somewhere in the top 10 dmen (5-10), where matthews is around the 10th best C (8-12). Thus, i think they are pretty equal, but AM looks really good to me, not that jones does not, so i pick him

Jones also has 3 more years on Matthews and Matthews doesn't really get the ice time he deserves yet (41st among C's last year)

 

[Gary Nylund]

It is worth remembering that these are some of the same fans who said Connor McDavid wasn't worth trading Jones for. They might have a slightly jaundiced view with their evaluations of other teams' talent.

I believe I mentioned earlier that there were FLA fans telling me they wouldn't trade Ekblad for McDavid a while back, I wonder how foolish those people feel today? I can't help but see the parallels here re. Jones/Matthews.

Columbus says no quite easily. Toronto would have to add.

Agree 100%. I'd ask what Toronto would have to add except that I don't want to trade Marner. I'd be interested if what would have to be added to Nylander to make a deal (as long as it's not Matthews).

Yeah, that does seem to be the consensus that I have run across and upon after all these pages, listening to the arguments, it seems relatively sound.
Maybe this changes after next season, but for now 1-for-1 Marner for Jones seems like something the Leafs would agree to but not the Jackets.

Agreed. The consensus seemed sound to me from the start, it's just that that Marner kid is so incredibly unique and special and Toronto fans are so in love with him that the very idea of trading him just doesn't compute. If there was ever a player who I never want to see wear another uniform it's Marner.

So yeah as of today, Jones > Marner. I think there's an excellent chance though that in a year or two, this will no longer be the case.

 

[6 Karlsson 5]

Jones also has 3 more years on Matthews and Matthews doesn't really get the ice time he deserves yet (41st among C's last year)

Offence in a lot of those metrics is on a per 60 basis. It should not really hurt him. Dmen, in general, take longer to develop, so i'm not too worried about that

 

[BAM]

Offence in a lot of those metrics is on a per 60 basis. It should not really hurt him. Dmen, in general, take longer to develop, so i'm not too worried about that

By that same token, Matthews now goes from facing top shutdown lines and top pairing D-men to having Tavares and Marner on another line which should see him get easier matchups

 

[6 Karlsson 5]

By that same token, Matthews now goes from facing top shutdown lines and top pairing D-men to having Tavares and Marner on another line which should see him get easier matchups

QoC is hard to quanitfy. It has low st.dev among all players; however, the models take QoC into accout. I seriously like this back and forth, good stuff. Most people just get angry at stats

this post has such bad grammer lmao

 

[The Man with a Plan]

Sure it was, he didn't ask who the 16 players ahead of him were, he asked how he got to 17. The simple answer is, 16 players are ahead of him. If you want names, ask for the names.

You and posts like this are exactly what is wrong with this place.

Anyone with a ounce of common sense and brains would know exactly what was being asked or meant.

Keep on trolling tho. Mods will eventually see you.

 

[BAM]

QoC is hard to quanitfy. It has low st.dev among all players; however, the models take that into account. I seriously like this back and forth, good stuff

Same it's a good conversation, I just think it just plain hockey terms, Matthews last year faced the Bergeron line and Chara in the playoffs for a majority of the game which obviously hurt his production, now teams like the Bruins or any team for that matter have to decide if they want to play their best defenders against Marleau-Matthews-Nylander or Hyman-Tavares-Marner

 

[Colt55]

The reason Matthews is number 2 on that list is because he says younger than malkin and Crosby and he's already amazing. Malkin and Crosby are better though.

I missed that then my bad. As far as young next gen centers he is def great.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Ok, have you seen the goals above replacement model that suggests TO has the best 1-2 C punch in the league? I think it is by Bill Comeau. That exact same model suggests Seth Jones was the 2nd best dman last year. Corsica also has GAR model (WAR converted to GAR). That model likes Matthews more than Jones, but the d rankings in that model are really weird, but i still have to give credit to AM, and i have only read half the write up on the model. It's kinda long, and i started doing it at work, so i didn't have much time.
Andrew Berkshires' model had Jones as the 14th best dman before this season. After this one, he would most likely move into the top 10.
Basically jones is somewhere in the top 10 dmen (5-10), where matthews is around the 10th best C (8-12). Thus, i think they are pretty equal, but AM looks really good to me, not that jones does not, so i pick him

That's interesting, thanks! I gotta give you credit here as you put some thought into this as opposed to just spewing as many are doing ITT. When I asked to show you your work my main thought was good luck using advanced analytics to compare centres to Dmen, any such attempt I believe would be speculative at best. What you've done though is a reasonable approach so good on you.

I would only add one thought - if you were picking a team to play one season than this analysis is somewhat useful as it's measuring the players as of today. If you are talking trade though, you have to consider that Jones is 3 years older and has 5 years under his belt already. Matthews is 3 years younger, only has 144 games played and I think any reasonable person would concede that he is almost guaranteed to be a much better player 2-3 years from now in the same way that Jones (and typically other young stars) improved with age and experience. So while today their on-ice value may be close, it's quite likely that in the not too distant future, Matthews will surpass Jones by a good margin. Projecting this improvement (plus the factor that 3 years younger is a benefit in itself) is such a huge factor that that there would have to be a very substantial add to Jones to make such a trade even worth considering. JMHO.

 

[Colt55]

It's almost like the Pens were back to back cup champs and didn't need to go balls to the wall in the regular season...and wrong, Matthews's TOI last year was 18.08, Malkin playing behind Crosby still had 19.00 minutes of TOI a game. Crosby for reference had 20.41 of ice time.

Matthews had the 41st most ice time among centers in the NHL last year and was still on pace for 83 points...what do you think is going to happen when he plays around 20 minutes? or 21 minutes like McDavid.

In 225.79 more minutes than Matthews last year, Jack Eichel had 1 more point...LOL

In 116.85 more minutes than Matthews last year, Mark Scheifele had 3 less points...LOL


Babcock prefers to balance his ice time among his forwards and defensemen...which does no favours for their individual point totals. Considering the team success though from being dead last 2 years ago to 6th best record last year and 2 years of playoffs, it's not like his method isn't seeing results. As opposed to McDavid and Barkov playing 22 minutes a game for their team to have a shot at winning.

Potential is like getting laid. It's always there but you never know if you will reach it or get shut down. To say I'm gonna get laid tonight and be 100% sure is one he'll of a bad gsmble.

 

[BAM]

Potential is like getting laid. It's always there but you never know if you will reach it or get shut down. To say I'm gonna get laid tonight and be 100% sure is one he'll of a bad gsmble.

Potential is when you draft a player and hope they become what you envision in them. Matthews has already done that, on pace for 45 goals and 83 points in his second year. 20 minutes a night is nothing earth-shattering for a star player. I can't take you seriously if you know that little about hockey that Matthews can't play 20 minutes a night, he's not a fatass he's a pro hockey player

 

[DickSmehlik]

Marner will hit 100 points this year

On his driver's license maybe.

 

[NoName]

Marner will hit 100 points this year

That is maybe a bit ambitious of a goal. I think he can hit a ppg pace though give all the Leafs new depth. Will be interesting to see if Jones manages to crack 60 points as well.

 

[Garbageyuk]

And apparently you know that? He plays limited minutes because the leafs are a deep team and their 1st powerplay unit run by Marner is one of the best if not the best in the league. It has nothing to do with the potential to "struggle under heavy workloads" lol. Leafs have a deep forward core and use it. Considering how strong of a team they were/are its not really that hard to understand.

I said he likely would. Learn how to read. Like I said, if Babcock thought it would help the team to play him more, he would. He's not that good.