PuckDynasty
Registered User
- May 3, 2014
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This is where it becomes obvious a lot of people are bad at math. Looking at those older draft classes where we have some history, a top 14 pick gives you a 66% chance (2009), a 50% chance (2008) or a 25% chance (2010) to get a guy who has the potential to be a dominant #1 d-man. Combine those classes and you have a 45% chance, nearly 1 in 2 to get that franchise d-man Holland has been unable to acquire via trade or UFA signing.
What are the odds you are going to get a dominant #1 d-man in picks 15-30? I'd say they are probably about 1 in 20. Get below the 30th pick and they probably drop to 1 in 50. In fact the Wings have drafted 35 d-men in that 15+ range since the 2001 draft and there isn't a single one that developed into a #1 d-man. It's not even close.
So I get that people will be "LOL OILERZ!!" but the fact of the matter is your best odds at filling the single biggest organizational need is picking in the top 14 or 15 of the draft. Holland has failed to address it via trades or free agency - and I get that it's hard to address that need via either of those paths.
However at some point something has got to give and if we miss the playoffs and get a reasonably high draft pick it will almost assuredly be a d-man. And that will give us our best odds at finally securing that dominant d-man who will help turn things around for the franchise.
I don't think anyone is arguing that you will have a better chance to get a franchise type player the higher you draft. Just that there's no guarantee of a Stanley Cup or even a consistent playoff team even if you do get that star player. The Oilers and the Blackhawks are the extremes on both sides of it.
Look at yesterdays opponent, the NYI. They got the star forward in Tavares, they got a good young defenseman in Hamonic (who now wants to be traded).They acquired a solid goalie in Halak, made some good pick ups on the blueline in Boychuck and Leddy and yet aren't even close to an elite team, despite many non playoff years.
I'd love it if the Wings were Cup contenders every year. But I realize that 4 Cups in 10 ish years is also pretty damn awesome and I know that a downslide is inevitable. Then again, that's what makes winning the Cup so special is because it's hard to win. Making the playoffs year after year beats the hell out of being out of the playoffs before Thanksgiving.