Missing the Playoffs would cause a shift in philosophy.

PuckDynasty

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May 3, 2014
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This is where it becomes obvious a lot of people are bad at math. Looking at those older draft classes where we have some history, a top 14 pick gives you a 66% chance (2009), a 50% chance (2008) or a 25% chance (2010) to get a guy who has the potential to be a dominant #1 d-man. Combine those classes and you have a 45% chance, nearly 1 in 2 to get that franchise d-man Holland has been unable to acquire via trade or UFA signing.

What are the odds you are going to get a dominant #1 d-man in picks 15-30? I'd say they are probably about 1 in 20. Get below the 30th pick and they probably drop to 1 in 50. In fact the Wings have drafted 35 d-men in that 15+ range since the 2001 draft and there isn't a single one that developed into a #1 d-man. It's not even close.

So I get that people will be "LOL OILERZ!!" but the fact of the matter is your best odds at filling the single biggest organizational need is picking in the top 14 or 15 of the draft. Holland has failed to address it via trades or free agency - and I get that it's hard to address that need via either of those paths.

However at some point something has got to give and if we miss the playoffs and get a reasonably high draft pick it will almost assuredly be a d-man. And that will give us our best odds at finally securing that dominant d-man who will help turn things around for the franchise.

I don't think anyone is arguing that you will have a better chance to get a franchise type player the higher you draft. Just that there's no guarantee of a Stanley Cup or even a consistent playoff team even if you do get that star player. The Oilers and the Blackhawks are the extremes on both sides of it.

Look at yesterdays opponent, the NYI. They got the star forward in Tavares, they got a good young defenseman in Hamonic (who now wants to be traded).They acquired a solid goalie in Halak, made some good pick ups on the blueline in Boychuck and Leddy and yet aren't even close to an elite team, despite many non playoff years.

I'd love it if the Wings were Cup contenders every year. But I realize that 4 Cups in 10 ish years is also pretty damn awesome and I know that a downslide is inevitable. Then again, that's what makes winning the Cup so special is because it's hard to win. Making the playoffs year after year beats the hell out of being out of the playoffs before Thanksgiving.
 

Run the Jewels

Make Detroit Great Again
Jun 22, 2006
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Making the playoffs year after year beats the hell out of being out of the playoffs before Thanksgiving.

The thing is as your elite talent moves on or retires - Chelios, Rafalski, Lidstrom, Yzerman, Shanahan, Fedorov, Franzen, Datsyuk - you need to replace them with high level hockey players. That clearly hasn't happened - particularly on defense - and it's why we've been fighting for our playoff lives the past 4 years. I'm not saying I would prefer to miss the playoffs; if Ryan Suter came to Detroit we'd be in perfectly fine shape. I am saying we are bound miss them in the near future given the dearth of talent on defense and it isn't the end of the world as it will likely give us our best shot at finally acquiring a franchise d-man.
 

Red Stanley

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Apr 25, 2015
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Stocking up on high-end draft picks would take blowing up the current team and spending years in the cellar. You want this to happen "for the long-term health of the organization" as the Wings are about to open a new arena. Are you serious?

Once again, having high draft picks guarantees nothing. You can, however, trade for them instead of tanking and sucking for 5-10 years at a time like every other NHL team. One of the reasons why the Wings are special is the fact that they haven't had to do that in a long time, cap or no cap. I completely understand the ownership and management not wanting to let go of that legacy as easily as some of the fans. What you call stagnation, others refer to as stability.

Can I borrow the crystal ball that lets you see into the future and shows you with utmost certainty the Wings will never win another Cup or draft another superstar without tanking for years and years?
 

PuckDynasty

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May 3, 2014
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The thing is as your elite talent moves on or retires - Chelios, Rafalski, Lidstrom, Yzerman, Shanahan, Fedorov, Franzen, Datsyuk - you need to replace them with high level hockey players. That clearly hasn't happened - particularly on defense - and it's why we've been fighting for our playoff lives the past 4 years. I'm not saying I would prefer to miss the playoffs; if Ryan Suter came to Detroit we'd be in perfectly fine shape. I am saying we are bound miss them in the near future given the dearth of talent on defense and it isn't the end of the world as it will likely give us our best shot at finally acquiring a franchise d-man.


:banghead: Holland should have just went down to the local Wal Mart and put a half dozen or so Hall of Famers in his cart at a bargain basement price to replace the old worn out ones? The system isn't set up for elite teams to stay that way. The bad teams get the higher draft picks. The way the CBA is set up limits the number of quality players in their prime to go the UFA route. This puts a high premium on mediocre players. Add to that the confines of a salary cap, and staying a Cup contender for two decades is a challenge to say the least.

They've been able to acquire a franchise goalie and a franchise forward without missing the playoffs or getting a top 5 pick. It isn't impossible to believe that they could do the same with a defenseman.
 

HockeyinHD

Semi-retired former active poster.
Jun 18, 2006
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So lemme get this straight, you think the Wings will always make the playoffs and even when they are on the downswing of their rebuild, they will have 40-50% chance of going on a deep run and when they are fully built up they will be at around 60% chance of going on a deep run? All because of this magical parity where teams in the bottom third in almost every category consistently go on deep runs?

Like I've said, you don't understand my position in specific and you've lost the general context of the discussion in general.

To recap for you, we're talking about whether missing the playoffs would change philosophy (it won't), and whether missing the playoffs to gain it's incumbent improvement in draft position is worth losing out on any chance at winning a round or two (it's not).

Do I think the Wings will ALWAYS make the playoffs? No, of course not. That's silly.
Do I think the the Wings (or any NHL team) have a decent chance at winning a round or two, even when they come in with a 5-8 seed? Yes.

I haven't exactly been hiding my candle under a basket here, man.

I'm the spoiled ignorant fan who only accepts winning, but is perfectly fine with the Wings missing the playoffs, but you are the mature and rational ran that expects the Wings to perpetually contend for the cup.

You will only allow a very short timeframe of losing before your demands for winning will re-assert themselves, though. And when they did they'd be ferocious. 'I allowed you idiots to stink for 2 years, and after that you're telling me the team is only going to get back to the general level they were at before they missed out on two playoffs!?! Yearrrrgh!'

You don't like being spoon fed cups, you just like being spoon fed a team that will never be bad.

Like I said, you don't understand my position. I liked the team in the 80's when winning a regular season game against Greztky was a huge accomplishment. I liked the team in the 90's when expectations and culture changed. I liked the team into the 2000's when the NHL was Three Titans and a bunch of Little Ladies. I like the team in the 2010's, with a league that requires constant correction.

If the Wings went on a 5 year run tomorrow and kicked everyone's butts, I'd like it. If they went on a 5 year nose-dive and struggled to make the postseasons, I'd like it. If they continue on as they are for 5 more years and hang around the top 10 in the NHL, I'd like it. I know those are all true because I've lived through all of them already and enjoyed following the sport in each.

But keep on believing you are some kind of special fan that truly gets "it" and us common folks just can't see the glory of Ken Holland.

Enh. You're just being hyperbolic. I think Holland's a good GM, and like anybody in any career makes mistakes and has successes. Having lived through years (and years and years and years) when the team was really bad at drafting and player development and only succeeded because they got on the European train early and were able to outspend everyone else, I enjoy seeing the team still be moderately successful with essentially the exactly opposite approach.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
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No GM is going to willingly blow up a team with a 25 year playoff streak and the reputation of the Wings.

They would have to get bad by organic means to get the type of pick some of you guys want. This team is not going to sell assets and embrace losing anytime soon. Maybe after Pavel and Z retire, and we move into the new building, but it's going to be strictly status quo til then.
 

HockeyinHD

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Jun 18, 2006
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They've been able to acquire a franchise goalie and a franchise forward without missing the playoffs or getting a top 5 pick. It isn't impossible to believe that they could do the same with a defenseman.

Just imagine how different things would be had Holland landed Parise and Suter back in 2012. No subsequent need to go Weiss/Richards or reacquire Quincey. Close one.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
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Just imagine how different things would be had Holland landed Parise and Suter back in 2012. No subsequent need to go Weiss/Richards or reacquire Quincey. Close one.

Never fielded a competitive offer for Parise. Would have been interesting to see what would happen if we had a strong offer out there for both. Would have had to shed salary and be more shrewd. Probably have a much better team overall, though.
 

Claypool

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Jan 12, 2009
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Just imagine how different things would be had Holland landed Parise and Suter back in 2012. No subsequent need to go Weiss/Richards or reacquire Quincey. Close one.

The team would be better in the short term, yes. Obviously Suter would be great to have, too. I don't really want Zach Parise for another nine more seasons at $7.5M.
 

BinCookin

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Feb 15, 2012
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I like hockey. I don't have to be spoon-fed endless decades of success to enjoy watching the Wings. I possess sufficient perspective to understand that there will be (occasionally long) stretches where the Wings won't be one of the best 5 or 6 teams in the league, so I know better than to tie all of my enjoyment to them being so.

Believe me, I get it. The 90's and 00's raised an entire generation of Wings fans who think the NHL owes them a Cup every 4 years and a Conference Finals every other season. When those fans don't get those outcomes, they start looking for people to blame because, hey, they always used to win before... obviously if something has changed it must be someone's fault.

Totally understandable. Oblivious, but understandable.

Very well said.

This is where it becomes obvious a lot of people are bad at math. Looking at those older draft classes where we have some history, a top 14 pick gives you a 66% chance (2009), a 50% chance (2008) or a 25% chance (2010) to get a guy who has the potential to be a dominant #1 d-man. Combine those classes and you have a 45% chance, nearly 1 in 2 to get that franchise d-man Holland has been unable to acquire via trade or UFA signing.

Common man, that wasnt the point.
1) FACT, we have a BETTER chance to get a good D man with an early pick obviously.

The point was, D men are sometimes hard to scout. Lots of early picks flame out, and a few late picks do well. But this could be said for every thing.


My corresponding point is this:

IF you think this team is doing it ALL wrong. And we need to go more FULL rebuild.

HOW do you do it. YOU ARE THE GM.... give me your plan.
Who do you sell. How many players do we need to sell. How much of the farm do we need to sell?
Do we sell our life long red wing vets?
Give me your opinion because i hear alot of criticism, but as usual nobody willing to risk putting their actual opinions of how a different rebuild would work. Sure its easy to say "more 1st rounders"... great type out who we trade away to get this done. How do you make sure you are not making us worse, but not bad enough. Let us see your plan. Its a fun discussion... Go.

I'm the spoiled ignorant fan who only accepts winning, but is perfectly fine with the Wings missing the playoffs, but you are the mature and rational ran that expects the Wings to perpetually contend for the cup.

You don't like being spoon fed cups, you just like being spoon fed a team that will never be bad.

I would say you are completely out of touch with reality and watch far too many Disney movies.

In your case, ignorance truly is bliss.

Also I don't think even you understand your position. Or you keep changing it in your head.

But keep on believing you are some kind of special fan that truly gets "it" and us common folks just can't see the glory of Ken Holland.

I'm done with you.

I would especially like to hear your plan!
 
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ap3x

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So, "blaming" Holland for not making the best out of our situation isn't allowed? It's just black (everything what Holland does sucks, I want to win as often as possible) or white (everything what Holland does is appropriate, I recognize that we can't make more out of the situation)?

What the hell is this board for?
 

BinCookin

Registered User
Feb 15, 2012
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London, ON
So, "blaming" Holland for not making the best out of our situation isn't allowed? It's just black (everything what Holland does sucks, I want to win as often as possible) or white (everything what Holland does is appropriate, I recognize that we can't make more out of the situation)?

What the hell is this board for?

This thread is hardly about praising holland or blaming holland. Obviously choices could be done differently, and we are welcome to argue/discuss these things forever. But This thread is about "How should we move forward?". "How would you build the team?", or specifically if you don't like theoreticals.. "what do you think needs to happen to make the organization change from the current status quo?"
 

ap3x

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Jan 31, 2014
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Yeah, and I contributed to that question before. Just referring to that discussion between WingedWheel1987 and HockeyInHd, which is going on for a while and more or less comes down to blaming or not blaming Holland.
 

WingedWheel1987

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Jan 11, 2011
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My plan would have involved not trading a single draft pick the three years after Lidstrom retired, and after that reassess. If the defense still looks like a pile of garbage, and there is nothing in the near future 1-2 years that might change that, i trade anyone over 30 for picks and prospects. I do not sign any role player or complementary talent that is about to become a UFA to 5,6 or 7 year contracts and move those players for picks and prospects, and fill those slots with prospects or 1-2 veterans on very short term deals if there is nothing in the pipeline that looks like they will amount to anything special in the NHL. If those veterans are having good seasons at the midway point, i trade them at the TDL to a contending team that might want the extra depth.

The goal is to acquire as many draft picks as possible in a short amount of time so that, ideally the next core will be drafted within 1-4 years of each other.

Wings won't be a playoff team, but it has a infinitely higher chance of succeeding than the current "rebuild on the fly" nonsense strategy, which is basically a fantasy.

People whine about drafting in the lottery not being a "sure thing" or a guarantee that the Wings end up being good again, but that strategy has a proven track record for success, and puts you in a position to draft ahead of 20-29 teams.

Whereas the current strategy has been successful once, and the one time it happened, the Wings had Nicklas Lidstrom to bridge the gap. A player that manged to play at an elite level up until the last two years before he retired.

You don't like tanking? Fine. Instead of going scorched Earth the past three years, you make high risk trades and signings that maximize the Wings ceiling to "go on a run." That means not trading for David Legwand or Marek Zidlicky or Kyle Quincey. You give up real assets for real talent. It could absolutely burn the franchise in the long run, but at least you tried to go out with a bang during Z/D's last few productive seasons. Instead of making moves that only go towards making the playoffs, you make trades that will win you playoff rounds.
 

HockeyinHD

Semi-retired former active poster.
Jun 18, 2006
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The team would be better in the short term, yes. Obviously Suter would be great to have, too. I don't really want Zach Parise for another nine more seasons at $7.5M.

I agree. Here's an interesting and wholly theoretical question, though: Would you accept the Parise deal if it made the difference between getting Suter?

Playing a little hindsighty with reality, that Parise deal likely freezes out Detroit from spending on Sammy at 3 per, then Weiss at 4.5 per, then Alfredsson for a couple at 5. Those seem like the patches the team tried for that scoring forward spot.

Moving forward, as in from here to the end... yeah. Parise may not provide much value.

I think I'd take both contracts rather than not getting either. It's not a slam-dunk though.
 

Claypool

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Jan 12, 2009
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I agree. Here's an interesting and wholly theoretical question, though: Would you accept the Parise deal if it made the difference between getting Suter?

Playing a little hindsighty with reality, that Parise deal likely freezes out Detroit from spending on Sammy at 3 per, then Weiss at 4.5 per, then Alfredsson for a couple at 5. Those seem like the patches the team tried for that scoring forward spot.

Moving forward, as in from here to the end... yeah. Parise may not provide much value.

I think I'd take both contracts rather than not getting either. It's not a slam-dunk though.

They may have very well won another championship with those two when signing them at the time. But add Parise and Suter to the current team and subtract a lot of the younger players, including Larkin, and I'm not sure they'd be competing with the likes of Chicago and Los Angeles. They would have been great short-term signings.
 

HockeyinHD

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Jun 18, 2006
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My plan would have involved not trading a single draft pick the three years after Lidstrom retired, and after that reassess.

In those three years 1987 cited the Wings were 'short' exactly one second round pick. Over the whole three years. 1 #2.

If the defense still looks like a pile of garbage, and there is nothing in the near future 1-2 years that might change that, i trade anyone over 30 for picks and prospects.

So, Edmonton... except by not also trading the current good players on the team who are under 30 1987's really only tanking to get a pick in the 10-15 range, at best. He's also bleeping all over vets like D, Z, and Kronwall, many of whom took deals at the time a bit less than market to stay in Detroit, meaning players in the future will see that, and learn from it, and not do it.

People whine about drafting in the lottery not being a "sure thing" or a guarantee that the Wings end up being good again, but that strategy has a proven track record for success, and puts you in a position to draft ahead of 20-29 teams.

There are a few teams who have succeeded doing that. There are 3-4 times more teams who have not succeeded doing that.

You don't like tanking? Fine. Instead of going scorched Earth the past three years, you make high risk trades and signings that maximize the Wings ceiling to "go on a run." That means not trading for David Legwand or Marek Zidlicky or Kyle Quincey. You give up real assets for real talent.

... which is just a different way to say 'delayed reaction tanking', because all that strategy does is bares your prospect pipeline to push all your chips forward into a 2-3 year window, at the conclusion of which the team will be empty and they'll have to tank.

That's why guys like 1987 have such a different view of running an organization. They want to win now. Right now. The 2016 Cup is more important than the one in 2017, or 2018, or 2019, or 2024.

Detroit seems to view all future Cups as fairly equally important, so they tend to avoid moves that will hurt them excessively in future campaigns just to goose their chances somewhat in the current one. That's not strictly accurate, of course... pretty much any deadline deal pays out more in future assets than it gets back in current value, but my point is that Detroit's more conservative with those future assets.
 

chances14

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Jan 7, 2010
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the thing is eventually you have to go into a win now mode or you will never win. You will always be looking to future cups.

Holland's recent deadline moves weren't win now moves. They were "extend the playoff streak" kind of moves

But with the obvious decline of datsyuk, zetterberg, and kronwall this season, I think the wing are past the point of realistically making win now moves
 

Claypool

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Jan 12, 2009
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the thing is eventually you have to go into a win now mode or you will never win. You will always be looking to future cups.

Holland's recent deadline moves weren't win now moves. They were "extend the playoff streak" kind of moves

But with the obvious decline of datsyuk, zetterberg, and kronwall this season, I think the wing are past the point of realistically making win now moves

I'm sure you'd be a happy man if Holland traded Larkin for Myers last season.

Detroit's "win now" window is probably three or four seasons away.
 

HockeyinHD

Semi-retired former active poster.
Jun 18, 2006
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the thing is eventually you have to go into a win now mode or you will never win. You will always be looking to future cups.

There's a level of degrees to that which is important to note, though.

There has to be a balance between the value of winning today and the value of winning tomorrow... because even 'win now' trades don't actually result in the win part of that transaction all that often.

Holland's recent deadline moves weren't win now moves. They were "extend the playoff streak" kind of moves

But with the obvious decline of datsyuk, zetterberg, and kronwall this season, I think the wing are past the point of realistically making win now moves

Yep, I agree. I think the Wings want to keep the ship afloat through the first two or three years after the new barn opens. Then, if they do end up having to engage in a more serious rebuild, they can do it under a much much better financial position and probably end up making 20 mil a year while they re-tool the roster.

Don't get me wrong, I think that strategy is really gross and embarrassing given how much the team soaked the city to get that building, but I can completely see why they'd do that.
 

PuckDynasty

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May 3, 2014
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I guess I'm the only one, but I don't feel the new building has anything to do with anything. As I said before, the new building itself will bring in the crowds, just like Comerica, Ford Field and most other new venues.

I don't think it's about keeping the streak alive either. He's trying to rebuild the team into a contender, despite not having high draft picks, bad contracts (his fault), injuries and underachievers. You can't keep draft picks, keep the small amount of talent you have and make trades to get quality guys.
 

InjuredChoker

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Dec 25, 2011
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I agree. Here's an interesting and wholly theoretical question, though: Would you accept the Parise deal if it made the difference between getting Suter?

Playing a little hindsighty with reality, that Parise deal likely freezes out Detroit from spending on Sammy at 3 per, then Weiss at 4.5 per, then Alfredsson for a couple at 5. Those seem like the patches the team tried for that scoring forward spot.

Moving forward, as in from here to the end... yeah. Parise may not provide much value.

I think I'd take both contracts rather than not getting either. It's not a slam-dunk though.

sammy was signed before parise and suter signed. 3 days before.
 

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