I think Sully should be the front runner at this stage, I think what's he done to turnaround last season's team and get consistency out of a team that's always changing and usually 10m+ under the cap in term of the on ice roster any given day is remarkable, but a lock with 20+ games to go? Nope. Things could still go sour for him. Things could still go amazingly for the coaches that are close.
I'd also wonder if, should it be a close race between him and Torts, whether it mightn't go to Sully simply because Torts has 2 and Sully's done some outstanding work without credit, because voters are like that sometimes.