Player Discussion Mike Matheson

[Miller Time]

Years played or not, the key is amount of games. They talk about 300 games for defensemen being the norm (on average, not every player is the same of course) where they are truly comfortable in the league and really find their footing. All of that is great news as all of our defensemen still have a ways to go before they reach their true potential.

So obvious and easy to understand... Yet too difficult for some apparently.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Brayden Point has finished top 10 in Selke votes 3 times in his career? Have you ever watched a single hockey game in your life? I'm sorry but you deserve to be ridiculed for this. Brayden point is a multiple time 40+ goals scorer and one of the best playoff performer in league history.

I've watched thousands of games, and in recent years the Selke voting is off the beaten path. Doug Jarvis, Bob Gainey and Guy Carbonneau could probably never win it today.

In February 2019, on the very day Claude Julien made the decision to demote Jesperi Kotkaniemi to 4th liner / spare forward, some TSN pundits suggested on-air the rookie get some SELKE consideration.

I no longer pay attention to Selke voting.

Re Brayden Point, I know he had some great playoffs in the past, but I find he is getting sloppy the last two seasons. At 28 years old and with his small frame, I would not want his contract of $9.5M for the next 6 years. TB may want to trade him and yes they will get a lot more than Matheson for him.

Anyway, next year maybe Matheson's numbers revert towards the mean, and he gets 50ish points with a +5. He will be a lot less polarizing then.

 

[Habnot]

Interesting that the Matheson haters hang on the +/- stat as their evidence that he sucks - possibly the most flawed metric that exists.

Is he an elite D? No - but he's a legit first pairing defenseman. Before throwing him on the scrap heap, let's have one of the young D's actually step up and take away some minutes (earned not given).

 

[Mrb1p]

Interesting that the Matheson haters hang on the +/- stat as their evidence that he sucks - possibly the most flawed metric that exists.

Is he an elite D? No - but he's a legit first pairing defenseman. Before throwing him on the scrap heap, let's have one of the young D's actually step up and take away some minutes (earned not given).

+/- isnt a good metric but it's pretty telling when the swing is that big. What's more telling is his 5v5 gf% and sf% metrics. Hint: they're the worst on the team.

Guhle is a better D than him and he's a left D, so it's a moot point whether there's someone that's steps up, he already did.

 

[Habnot]

+/- isnt a good metric but it's pretty telling when the swing is that big. What's more telling is his 5v5 gf% and sf% metrics. Hint: they're the worst on the team.

Guhle is a better D than him and he's a left D, so it's a moot point whether there's someone that's steps up, he already did.

It is or it isn't - you don't get to parse. Also all the stats are skewed by the amount of minutes he plays.

And exactly what has Guhle shown that would lead you to believe that he can get anywhere close to the production Matheson brings to the team?

And this does not include how valuable Matheson is in the dressing room. I wouldn't be surprised if Matheson is signed to a new contract.

You want to make sure you turn into the Ottawa Senators? Get rid of all your veterans.

But don't take my word...

Chronique de Billy Bertrand : Mike Matheson, un joueur responsable | RDS

Mike Matheson continue son excellente saison, Josh Anderson met fin à une longue disette, et le Canadien fait des heures supplémentaires.

www.rds.ca

 

[Mrb1p]

It is or it isn't - you don't get to parse. Also all the stats are skewed by the amount of minutes he plays.

And exactly what has Guhle shown that would lead you to believe that he can get anywhere close to the production Matheson brings to the team?

And this does not include how valuable Matheson is in the dressing room. I wouldn't be surprised if Matheson is signed to a new contract.

You want to make sure you turn into the Ottawa Senators? Get rid of all your veterans.

He's outproduced Matheson at 5v5. I mean, that's pretty telling lol.

The Sens have been holding on to Matheson types though. Guys who've never won and sacrifice even strength play for production. He's a literal clone of Chychrun.

And no it isn't skewed by minutes played, it's all ice time rates. The only thing skewed is well... his hockey DB page, which is the only thing that looks good about Matheson, and the only reason why you're making this post.

 

[Nicko999]

No the Habs wouldn't be bottom 3 without him. He contributed very little to the score sheet at 5v5.

His on-ice shot attempt is lower than every Habs D.
His fenwick is lower than every D except Savard.
His goal % is the lowest on the team.
He has the worst raw differential
He has the worst raw shot differential
His goals created on rebounds is a team worse.

He's basically last or bottom two in every single offensive (and of course defensive) stats at 5v5.

I don't care about advanced stats. A goal is goal (which ultimately results in pts).

Habs have 4 forwards with 30 pts this year.

Columbus has 6, Anaheim has 5, Seattle has 6 (potentially 7 by the end of the season)
Even Chicago has 5.
Tied with Washington at 4.
Only SJ is worst with 3.

Among the worst 6 offenses, only MTL stands out with great production from a D-man (Washington with Carlsson as well to a lesser extent).

The situation is shown perfectly by San Jose. 7th worst offense last year on the back of Erik Karlsson's 101 pts. You take him out, and they become the 2nd worst offense (and that is because of Chicago's hilariously bad offense this year).
And no, I am not comparing Matheson to Karlsson last year. Not even in the same stratosphere. But the impact of a #1D production is one of the most underrated things in here.

 

[BaseballCoach]

He's outproduced Matheson at 5v5. I mean, that's pretty telling lol.

The Sens have been holding on to Matheson types though. Guys who've never won and sacrifice even strength play for production. He's a literal clone of Chychrun.

And no it isn't skewed by minutes played, it's all ice time rates. The only thing skewed is well... his hockey DB page, which is the only thing that looks good about Matheson, and the only reason why you're making this post.

At all EV, Matheson has 32 points and Guhle 22. Did you mean by minute played?

 

[Mrb1p]

I don't care about advanced stats. A goal is goal (which ultimately results in pts).

Habs have 4 forwards with 30 pts this year.

Columbus has 6, Anaheim has 5, Seattle has 6 (potentially 7 by the end of the season)
Even Chicago has 5.
Tied with Washington at 4.
Only SJ is worst with 3.

Among the worst 6 offenses, only MTL stands out with great production from a D-man (Washington with Carlsson as well to a lesser extent).

The situation is shown perfectly by San Jose. 7th worst offense last year on the back of Erik Karlsson's 101 pts. You take him out, and they become the 2nd worst offense (and that is because of Chicago's hilariously bad offense this year).
And no, I am not comparing Matheson to Karlsson last year. Not even in the same stratosphere. But the impact of a #1D production is one of the most underrated things in here.

A goal is a goal, that's why having a 44% GF is bad, lol. It's not very hard to understand. That means he's been on the ice for 56% more goals than he's scored at 5v5. It's telling when he's the worst on the team.

Your whole argument is dismantled when last year he was playing much better defensively (Still f***ing bad.) and we finished with a better GF, with our best D being Petry and Wideman we finished with a better 5v5 GF (21st in the league, vs 26 and 27 the years he's been here.) This year the Habs have an actual very good GA at 5v5, were 13th in the league, he was on the ice for 60 goals, while getting the best on-ice goaltending at .922. Those are ridiculous numbers.

With him, at 5v5 were a 153 GF 160 GA team.
Without him, at 5v5 were a 106 GF -100 GA team.

Lets say Savard, since he had a similar deployment, were at 72 gf and 65 GA when he's on the ice. massive difference at 5v5, of course Savy played 30 odd less games than Matheson so it's hard to see in context but watch the difference, you can just assume that over a similar rate, we'd be close to a 150-160 difference with Savard on the ice.

At all EV, Matheson has 32 points and Guhle 22. Did you mean by minute played?

even strength is not 5v5. Even strength counts in 3v3, 4v4, 5v5 and even 6v6 if it ever happens.
We all know Matheson is amazing at 3v3 and 4v4, I have no issues with him there. He's at 21 points, tied with Savard and Guhle has 19, they've both played a lot less minutes and games than him.

 

[Nicko999]

With him, at 5v5 were a 153 GF 160 GA team.
Without him, at 5v5 were a 106 GF -100 GA team.

So 44% more likely to score with him on the ice. That is significant.

We all know his defensive mistakes, not arguing that. I am looking things from an offensive point of view. He is also having the toughest marchups with Ghule so that affects thar GA numbers. When he is off the ice, it's more likely that the opponent 1st line is not on.

 

[Mrb1p]

So 44% more likely to score with him on the ice. That is significant.

We all know his defensive mistakes, not arguing that. I am looking things from an offensive point of view. He is also having the toughest marchups with Ghule so that affects thar GA numbers. When he is off the ice, it's more likely that the opponent 1st line is not on.

Thats... not how it works lmao.

 

[Galchenyuk15]

I hope the staff will have a good evaluation of what to do with Mike Matheson because thing can became a real horror story if they fall in love with him, keep him and sign him for too much money, and doing a lot more damage in the long run than good!!

He have a fantastic year, he can play 25 minutes a night, with Montreal he found a extra gear and he is a super elite skater but playing a lot of minutes with offensive production and being effective is two different thing! Devin Toews is 3x times the d-man Mike Matheson will never be whatever the numbers they have.

Matheson play the same kind of game here than Chabot with Ottawa and I think they hurt the team more than they really help them because they can't shutdown the others teams when they need it and have tendancy to have some brain camps; the syndrome D. Jekyll - Mr. Hyde way too much for a d-man playing that kind of minutes!

To resume, a first pairing D by default because of the team they played with more than anything else and with the success their teams have, we can understand the points are not everything for a effective top pairing D! Even if they produce well, they are not good enough on their zone to justify their salary once they are establish; we are lucky here to have Matheson under a fair contract!

If they try to use him to maximize his value in thinking to trade him in the next 2 years, the way we use him now it's perfect with the salary he has, Guhle and Hutson are slow down by him before their new contract but if they use him like that with the thinking to built with him, we are in deep trouble!

I don't like Guhle on his bad side, I understand we have nothing better at the moment, but in the long run I don't believe in the RD we have, I can't see Mailloux and/or Barron having success with close to none PP, at least not that kind of d-man I will target to fulfill my squad and in the big picture, I can see 4 LD be use at middle/long term. It's the reason I understand why they give Guhle some experience on that side because at some point a LD will need to do it; Guhle, Hutson, Xhekaj or Engstrom!

Even if Matheson really love Montreal and ready to take a home discount to stay, he will look for big bucks because he have pretty good leverage with his production and his ice-time and with the prospect we have I just don't see how we can justify his salary after his new contract! If Hutson establish himself within 2 two years, he will play between 75 and 118 seconds for the next 10-12-15 years in each PP and Matheson will not being able to came close of what they do now in production!

And my major issue with him, it's his confidence. Now everything it's fine, good or bad, he play 3 shifts on 7 on average and have all the opportunity in the world but how they will respond when they will have a more limited use, penalize for his mistake and someone will have the job to play with the puck other than him when we will need a goal. With the way he play I think he will try to force the play way too much and he can became a real issue because we will see the bad side of him, like every teams has before us!

Never forget where he came from and think at Florida even if he was really young. After signing him for 8 years and thinking he was a piece of the foundation, they have do everything to trade him because he have lost his game once he got paid for what he his suppose to do. Now, he is Superman the way we used him but don't take him for granted because thing can change fast!

I don't want to resign Matheson because I think he can became a real disaster even if he have some elite tools because he would be paid way too much for what he will do and because of his history with confidence and the assets we have in place, I just don't see him keep his game like last year when the team would be at maturity and I don't see him becoming effective enough without the puck to justify the salary he would have!

We would not being able to replace him by one player but a comity. Hutson will have is duty to produce with the puck and the time will be taken by Reinbacher and someone else if needed. In the long run, we will have a better guy to have with or without the puck not name Matheson!

 

[Habs Halifax]

+/- isnt a good metric but it's pretty telling when the swing is that big. What's more telling is his 5v5 gf% and sf% metrics. Hint: they're the worst on the team.

Guhle is a better D than him and he's a left D, so it's a moot point whether there's someone that's steps up, he already did.

Matheson gets a 8.5 or 9 / 10 on the skating/mobility/offense area. For D coverage, I would have him around 7. Not his strength but he's not horrible at the same time. He's our M Rielly but with a better shot.

You always have to take +/- with a grain of salt. Suzuki is -14 by Evans is -1 for example. Big swing right? Sometimes usage make it look worse.

One area to dig into deeper than +/- is the giveaways and takeaways per 60.
* 2.17 Giveaways/60. (Guhle is 1.76)
* 1.4 Takeaways/60 (Guhle is 1.02)

Matheson's Giveaway/Takeaways are very close to T Harley on the Stars.

 

[JoelWarlord]

Matheson was -10 at 5v5, the rest of his +/- is mostly shorties and empty net noise, stop using +/- but especially don't use it for the OFD on a bad team that will be on the ice with the goalie pulled.

Remember when we had the Alzner-Petry pairing and Petry was like -25 and Alzner was -7? Massively skewed for the EN guy on bad teams

 

[Mrb1p]

Matheson was -10 at 5v5, the rest of his +/- is mostly shorties and empty net noise, stop using +/- but especially don't use it for the OFD on a bad team that will be on the ice with the goalie pulled.

Remember when we had the Alzner-Petry pairing and Petry was like -25 and Alzner was -7? Massively skewed for the EN guy on bad teams

Are you trying to make a -11 differential at 5v5 for a 30 years old vet look good ? Is giving up shorties a good thing now ? 6 goals at 5v4 and he also gave up a lot of goals at both 4v4 and 3v3.

You can try to rationalize Mathesons +/- or just accept he isn't that good of a defender and we're probably better off focusing on the future rather than the rag-tag crew.

 

[Andrei79]

I don't think Matheson is going anywhere. The coaching staff is high on him. They're also high on Guhle. Robidas was praising both recently, but seemed to be particularly impressed by Guhle.

 

[JoelWarlord]

Are you trying to make a -11 differential at 5v5 for a 30 years old vet look good ?

No? I never said it was good, I said stop using +/- because I think it's dumb to use +/- and it's particularly bad for OFD on bad teams specifically because it includes garbage like SHG and empty nets. I don't think that 5v5 number is "good", but I don't think it's horrible either in the context of his usage on a 28th place team like the raw +/- would suggest.

Is giving up shorties a good thing now ? 6 goals at 5v4 and he also gave up a lot of goals at both 4v4 and 3v3.

Of course it's not a good thing, it's just something that will happen a handful of times to every team 82 and it creates a warping effect on +/- as it can not be counteracted by any positive contributions on the power play while the negatives in the form of SHGs which happen to every team a handful of times are locked in as minuses.

You can try to rationalize Mathesons +/- or just accept he isn't that good of a defender

I don't think Matheson is a particularly good defender. IMO he's an OK-mediocre defender in a 2nd pair role and overmatched to poor defensively as a top pair D. I never said he was a good defender either, I am saying that looking at +/- to say his -24 vs the next lowest -8 and say "it's pretty telling when the swing is that big" to imply he's a total sieve is a deeply flawed argument, because the swing is made up of junk like shorties and empty nets that have little to do with his 5v5 defensive ability.

Looking at Evolvinghockey for 5v5 Guhle is -11 and Matheson was -10 for instance. I do not think Matheson is equal or better defensively than Guhle either. Guhle is the superior defender and the gap will only widen with time. I bring it up to point out that the 5v5 numbers are nowhere close to the +/-, and that the swing in +/- is as meaningless as it was when it was Petry at -30 and Alzner was at -7 a season before he was banished to the AHL.

In broader terms I don't agree with your arguments that he's a DeAngelo/Gostisbehere pure PP merchant who's a bottom pair scrub other than point totals. I think he's a flawed but useful 2nd pair OFD and I'm not particularly concerned that he looks overmatched when deployed as a #1 to insulate younger players. If he's not traded, I hope that his usage ratchets down this year as I think Guhle/Xhekaj are ready to take on a bigger share of the top 4 minutes and I hope Hutson takes over as the main PP1 guy.

and we're probably better off focusing on the future rather than the rag-tag crew.

Maybe. I've said many times that I'm not really opposed to trading Matheson, I just don't share the same urgency to do it as others. I don't think his trade value is as high as the general consensus on this board, and I don't think it'll be much different at the 2025 or 2026 deadlines. Other teams understand his 60 points are a little smoke and mirrors, and nobody acquiring him would think he's a bonafide top pair D.

I just don't buy into the idea that there are going to be premium prospects/young players and top 15 picks on the table for Matheson that we're just stubbornly turning down. If those offers are actually available then by all means we should pounce ASAP, but I would expect his value is probably closer to a playoff team's 1st + some throw in C+/B- prospect, and I correspondingly don't share the same urgency to trade him RIGHT NOW at that valuation.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

I'm fine with Matheson's play and his current contract. I do not want the Habs to extend him. I would like them to trade him at some point. Whether to trade him now or later, that's a bit tougher to say for certain.

 

[Mrb1p]

Trade Matheson for a young forward and use his money to acquire Pesce.

Win win for everyone.

 

[Deebs]

Trade Matheson for a young forward and use his money to acquire Pesce.

Win win for everyone.

So Pesce is 30 years old this year and slowing down....what type of contract are you offering him to be our penalty killing, defensive defenseman?

 

[NORiculous]

NJ’s first is on the market and looking for established players (it would seem)

So How about something around
Harris and Matheson vs. NJ 2024 1st + Holtz.

 

[CanadienShark]

I don't care about advanced stats. A goal is goal (which ultimately results in pts).

Habs have 4 forwards with 30 pts this year.

Columbus has 6, Anaheim has 5, Seattle has 6 (potentially 7 by the end of the season)
Even Chicago has 5.
Tied with Washington at 4.
Only SJ is worst with 3.

Among the worst 6 offenses, only MTL stands out with great production from a D-man (Washington with Carlsson as well to a lesser extent).

The situation is shown perfectly by San Jose. 7th worst offense last year on the back of Erik Karlsson's 101 pts. You take him out, and they become the 2nd worst offense (and that is because of Chicago's hilariously bad offense this year).
And no, I am not comparing Matheson to Karlsson last year. Not even in the same stratosphere. But the impact of a #1D production is one of the most underrated things in here.

Tough year to be me.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

Other teams understand his 60 points are a little smoke and mirrors, and nobody acquiring him would think he's a bonafide top pair D.

If anything, when other teams look at the rag tag type of forwards and young defencemen that Matheson is playing with I think most teams are impressed with his 60 points.

Think what Matheson’s point totals would be if he had more than a handful of quality NHL forwards to play with. Imagine if he was passing to and supporting a Matthews, or a McDavid level player. Imagine what his point total would have been if he was playing for a contending team.

Other contending teams are thinking / imagining the same.

There’s an old saying: Statistics are for losers. More importantly, Matheson passes the eye test: he has great mobility, he plays huge minutes, he has good offensive skills and he’s dirt cheap by today’s standards.

Hughes understands this and won’t trade this key player, who is a team leader, unless he can get a king’s ransom. Who knows, there may well be a team out there who will pay same.

I know the Leafs, and their now former coach, Keefe, wishes they had.

 

[Mrb1p]

NJ’s first is on the market and looking for established players (it would seem)

So How about something around
Harris and Matheson vs. NJ 2024 1st + Holtz.

With Siegenthaler and Hughes I'm not sure there's room for Matheson in NJ.

So Pesce is 30 years old this year and slowing down....what type of contract are you offering him to be our penalty killing, defensive defenseman?

Mathesons money

He's a RD and it let's us have
Guhle
Hutson
Xhekaj

Also, it let's Guhle be the man offensively.

 

[Tyson]

If anything, when other teams look at the rag tag type of forwards and young defencemen that Matheson is playing with I think most teams are impressed with his 60 points.

Think what Matheson’s point totals would be if he had more than a handful of quality NHL forwards to play with. Imagine if he was passing to and supporting a Matthews, or a McDavid level player. Imagine what his point total would have been if he was playing for a contending team.

Other contending teams are thinking / imagining the same.

There’s an old saying: Statistics are for losers. More importantly, Matheson passes the eye test: he has great mobility, he plays huge minutes, he has good offensive skills and he’s dirt cheap by today’s standards.

Hughes understands this and won’t trade this key player, who is a team leader, unless he can get a king’s ransom. Who knows, there may well be a team out there who will pay same.

I know the Leafs, and their now former coach, Keefe, wishes they had.

On this site Matheson gets Brisebois level respect which is unwarranted. Solid player for the money.