True - judging from the way they generally shy away from doing that in-game I'd hazard a guess that it's not a priority in practices at all.
They were out chanced and out played by both Chicago and Dallas. If you're going to rely on possession/chance stats, at least be honest with what they're showing.
Actually, I'm willing to bet that Fenwick and Corsi will be dumped within a year or two. Very interesting things going on at the last MIT sports analytics conference.
Actually, I take that back. They have a company so they'll probably keep it all proprietary and we'll still be using Fenwick and Corsi lol.
dallas chances, dallas possession. note that 15 is almost double 8 for EV
chicago they didn't deserve to win, but whatever, that's one of the six or seven games he listed and i got it mixed up in my memory
yeah, until the nhl starts tracking zone time/literal possession again, thats the best we get.
although "dumped" would be a really strong reaction, lol
If some of these new stats like expected goals are better correlated than Fenwick/Corsi (which are not that well correlated to be honest) then there's no real reason to keep using them.
They're going to come up with better fitting stats eventually IMO since advanced statistics in hockey is pretty green compared to Sabremetrics. And shots directed as a metric of possession is a bit of a reach if you think about it. It just happened that all our other traditional stats sucked so badly that these gave us a much more complete story. But I don't think that's going to last too much longer.
it seems like you're under the impression that someone is going to generate a statistic that
A: is tracked
B: has a useable sample size throughout the entire year
C: is better in all regards than the ones in use now
any two of these would be an accomplishment in of itself, all three would be a minor miracle
If Colton Orr takes a shot from the top of the circle it should not carry the same weight as a Stamkos shot from the top of the circle. They are not equal, they do not represent an equal opportunity to score. That's the problem i have using ''shots'' and ''scoring chances'' because even when you take away all the other variables those events need to be weighted in a way that's basically impossible to do for the stat to matter at all.
If Colton Orr takes a shot from the top of the circle it should not carry the same weight as a Stamkos shot from the top of the circle. They are not equal, they do not represent an equal opportunity to score. That's the problem i have using ''shots'' and ''scoring chances'' because even when you take away all the other variables those events need to be weighted in a way that's basically impossible to do for the stat to matter at all.
But Ehrhoff is a 50 point defenceman, and was a key cog in the Canucks machine. Helped to define a new style of play which galvanized our team.
I see both Garrison and Ehrhoff has valuable (it's a matter of opinion as to who is more valuable) but Ehrhoff was the better fit for our team.
I disagree in your assessment that this team is better at ES than the 2011 team, yes. I would agree that the PP and goaltending is responsible for a decline in the standings, but I also think that the defense can influence both the PP and goaltending, and our defensive pairings have been such a mess they are part of the issue - along with our goaltender's play this year and Newell Brown.
And here is the crux of our disagreement. I think this is a ridiculous way to approach building a team, and history has proven (a la the Ranger of the late 90's) that this is a bad way to approach free agency.
The draft? Sure, go BPA. But in the offseason you need to find players that the team lacks, and that fill a hole or need. Not add to an area of strength when there are glaring holes that need to be filled.
Since you've ignored my hypothetical Lundvist example, I'll use a forward one instead.
The team has 2 top 6 centres in Kesler and Sedin. Let's say we trade Schneider for Couturier just for funsies, and that gives 3 very good C's down the middle. Let's further say that Weiss loves Vancouver, and is willing to sign in Vancouver for 4.5M per season, despite being horrible on the wing. Now - Purcell is available at an identical cap hit, for future considerations. According to your philosophy we should pick up Weiss instead of Purcell, as he's the "better forward", regardless of his fit on the team.
Sorry - I think that is an awful way to build a team. You are completely missing the forest for the trees. In my scenario, we should get Purcell, as the 2nd line needs a playmaking winger far more then a C who plays worse on the wing. Regardless of who the better player is.
This is why, unless we are trading Edler, signing Garrison was a less than ideal move. Our d pairings are a mess. And none of the combinations have worked particularly well.
Thread getting derailed much ?
Mike Gillis somehow managed to devolve this team of skill. He traded the right prospects and acquired the right roster players to have exactly no finesse and skill outside of the Sedins.
Thread getting derailed much ?
Mike Gillis somehow managed to devolve this team of skill. He traded the right prospects and acquired the right roster players to have exactly no finesse and skill outside of the Sedins.
MG drank the "tuffness" kool aid and now the team lacks the high skilled puck possession identity it used to have into a mish mash of not enough skill and not enough tough ness.
None of the players we've acquired go counter to our supposed puck possession style of hockey (which we're slowly getting away from because of AV's coaching).
I don't get how we are moving away from possession when we are actually, to my mind, better at possession that we were before? The recent acquisitions/additions like Booth, Garrison, Kassian et. al have helped that, not hindered it. They all drive play very well.
Further, how did we go from a skilled team to a non-skilled team by essentially switching Ehrhoff for Garrison. There's no market difference in skill between the other changes. And so, can one player be that important in defining the direction of the team? Apparently.
I think it's a by-product of over-emphasizing possession. Often the winger is already going into places where they would retrieve the puck to continue their zone time, while the centres on most of our lines hang back too high to be able to get there in time.
How do you figure derailed? A big talking point about Gillis has done is the Garrison vs. Ehrhoff in a nutshell.
How much skill has actually been jettisoned by Gillis though? There's Ehrhoff, Hodgson and Samuelsson/Grabner vs. Garrison, Kassian and Booth. I don't see a marked difference between Samuelsson/Grabner and Booth. Next is Hodgson vs. Kassian, where Hodgson's calling card has been high hockey IQ and not necessarily pure skill. Kassian is also very skilled, getting draft high himself at 13. The biggest change is Ehrhoff vs. Garrison, a PMD vs. a DFD. And really, that alone shouldn't be the difference between a skilled team vs. a "tough" team.
I don't see a huge shift here.
None of the players we've acquired go counter to our supposed puck possession style of hockey (which we're slowly getting away from because of AV's coaching).
@DiamondDog:
Better fit depends on what you are trying to do. VAN isn't trying to be the team they were with Ehrhoff: The softer ES team that got shut down in the playoffs.
50 points is relative. Edler is a 50 point guy essentially, yet we see people calling for his head after each game. That's how I felt about Ehrhoff sometimes after playoff games. And in those games, I couldn't care less what he did in the regular season. Did you?
How can you disagree? Possession stats have them at 5 or 6 without a 2nd or 3rd line C. Further, they were leading the division with an 0-36 PP run. This team is wholly reliant on ES play, while the 2011 team had more reliance on the PP and got burned eventually because of that dependence.
The team's D has been a "mess" due to other factors unrelated to a PMD. Hamhuis and Bieksa are playing like crap and Edler has been hit or miss. That's why the D has struggled, not strictly due to the pairings. Again, I think people are making way too big a deal of balancing the pairings. A system shouldn't be so brittle.
You're advocating taking a weaker Dman and I'm missing the forest for the trees. Lol. Re-evaluate. Fast.
Let me spell out for you again: Jason Garrison has been the _best_ Dman, on balance, for this team this year. But somehow he's unnecessary or too redundant to be required? Give me a break. I'd hate to think where this D would be without him.
In your scenario you take Weiss 10 times out of 10, if you feel he's the better forward, and brings great value per that 4.5m hit. Then you worry about "fit". Move Kesler to the wing if need be. But it's a concern for after you get the player, not before. Always choose the better asset, save for a very few exceptions. It's why PIT ran Crosby-Malkin-Staal for so long --> Quality trumps position.
Why do this? Because you don't know how a roster will shake out over years of time. Look at the situation now, where Kesler injured. Which do you need more, a C or a W? Further, what if later they decide to push Kesler to the wing? What's more valuable, Weiss/Purcell? Depth for positional needs is fine, but any time you are passing one quality for sub-optimal players that fit positional needs instead, you are making the wrong decision.
I never called for his head after each game, regardless of whether it was the regular season or the playoffs. In fact I can't even remember any bonehead plays that cost us goals, or games, when he played here.
I care about both what he does in the regular season and in the playoffs. And I was fine with his play in the playoffs. You've created this mythical scenario (he was putrid in the playoffs) and are now passing it off as fact. You have to actually establish that he was that bad in the first place before running with it.
How can I disagree? Well by looking at these stats you keep trotting out for one. Regardless of our injury status, we were 4th in possession stats in 2011. This year we are, as you said, 5th or 6th. I don't really care about the circumstances. Let's break this down. 4 > 5. We were better at ES in 2011. In addition, our goal differential was better as well. Sure there are reasons for all of this - ie goaltending, PP, injuries, etc - but the fact is we were better at ES in 2011.
I disagree that the pairings haven't played a huge role in why the D has struggled, but apparently for you 3 of our top 4 defencemen are all having off-years.
Hook, line and sinker.
First of all your Pittsburgh analogy is poor, and would only be valid if Pittsburgh added another top 6 C to their roster. They didn't, instead they focused on wingers and defenceman each and every offseason with that particular lineup. Let's extend this scenario further, remembering that Weiss is awful on the wing.
We head into the season with
Booth - Kesler - Weiss. It turns out to be ineffective, and AV tries a few different combinations (as he is wont to due) with Weiss on the 1st line, then on the 3rd line, and then centring Kesler as you suggest. The 2nd line never really clicks, and the three players finish with 45 points, 60 points, and 51 points respectively. Weiss is handy when Kesler is thrown out of draws, being a good faceoff guy himself, and helps the team when Kesler is injured for lets say 10 games.
Now with Purcell we head into the season with
Booth - Kesler - Purcell, and it turns out to be a very effective line. Purcell is an excellent playmaking winger, who finds and sets iup Kesler and Booth nicely over the season. The line remains stable throughout the year, excepting a few injuries here and there. The three players finish with 58 points, 70 points, and 65 points respectively. The faceoff percentage suffers a bit, and Schroeder is called up and does a mediocre job for the 10 games Kesler is injured.
The team wins more games in the latter example. It's ridiculous to add to a position of strength, or to positions that have already been filled, when there are glaring holes in other areas of the team.
With your focus on BPA in free agency you are missing the forest for the trees, despite shrugging that comment off, and forgetting hockey is a team game. You are advocating having an insurance policy, regarding positions of strength, much like Gillis has done with Ballard. Unfortunately it's a poor way to manage assets and cap space.
Quality trumps position in a vacuum. Not when there is a surplus of talent at that position and a dearth of talent in other positions.
Gillis changed his mindset after the cup loss. I don't think Nonis would have had it in him to go after guys like Samuelson,Demitra(rip) or Sundin. But Gillis did.
The old Gillis with Nonis's core was successful. The new Gillis with Nonis's core is a disaster.
You didn't see any holes in Ehrhoff's play, but yet Gillis chose to hard line him and eventually dump him for a 4th? How do we resolve this? Was it his 50 point regular season that deterred Gillis... Or was it something that left a bad impression with regards to the playoffs? Don't take my word for it, the proof is right there in what Gillis did. That's a _fact_.
For me to establish it beyond that, what would you like? Advanced stats? Put the games on here? Many people thought he played poorly. Perhaps peruse the older threads? If we disagree subjectively, what objective data would you require to be proven wrong?
Lol. Curious. If I know that I've posted that they are 5-6 at close Fenwick. And I _know_ they were 4th in close Fenwick in 2011... Why do you think I have drawn the conclusion that they are better at ES now? Think it through... slowly.
And as mentioned by opendoor: A sv% adjustment this year would top the differential found in 2011, so that point is moot.
The pairings have played a part in this team's struggles, but not nearly "huge". Look at what you are seeing at ES right now: Garrison is destroying the competition at ES on the _right_side_ next to Hamhuis. What now?
I'm going to have a to post a TLDR here because I think your first hypothetical was poor enough, and I made a mistake by answering it. This one I didn't even bother reading.
I'm just going to pose this question to you again. Garrison has played with Hamhuis at ES, on the right side, for a good chunk here. They are doing very well against the competition. Both posting positive Corsi facing tough competition. Something Hamhuis wasn't doing earlier one when paired with Bieksa. So what's more useful right now? The fact that they have Garrison to place there, on the right-side, and improve the play of even Hamhuis, or getting a middling D option that is a right shot that can't supplant Bieksa in this time of need.
The evidence is pretty damning against your case. You can choose to accept, or continue to push an Ian White for Jason Garrison fantasy deal just because you think a right shot is that important. You make the call.