"Mid Summer" Sabres top prospect rankings poll #5

[Jim Bob]

I'm surprised tage is getting so much love

New shiny toy bias.

 

[stokes84]

New shiny toy bias.

He was selected 7 spots in front of Asplund and already has NHL experience. It looks more like familiarity bias.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

People seem to be giving too much weight to how soon the player projects to be in the NHL.

I went with Samuelsson, big dman most had as a 1st round pick, who went 32nd overall.

Marcus Davidsson for some reason gets very little attention from Sabres fans, he actually had a better draft+1 season in the SHL than Asplund. He scored 9 goals to Asplund's 6. Asplund had 8 this past season.

Kris Baker tweeted a couple weeks ago Davidsson might be at Sabres training camp - this seemed weird to me, the SHL season I think would already be underway. So I asked Baker and he said they have been in talks with Davidsson.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

doh - i mixed up prospects, it's Laakssonen he said might be at main training camp, which is also weird.

i had asked him if we ever found out why Laakssonen wasn't at development camp in early July.

his reply:


@SabresProspects Aug 2
Wasn’t addressed but good chance he’s coming over for main camp

 

[dotcommunism]

He was selected 7 spots in front of Asplund and already has NHL experience. It looks more like familiarity bias.

As if seven spots of draft position, at that point in the draft, means much of anything, especially two years later.

 

[Snippit]

Asplund’s production from D+1 to D+2 didn’t increase all that much.

Can’t attest to how he improved in other areas of course. But Davidsson seems like the more interesting prospect to me.

 

[Jim Bob]

He was selected 7 spots in front of Asplund and already has NHL experience. It looks more like familiarity bias.

If they were familiar with what he has done as a pro, they wouldn't be biased.

 

[stokes84]

If they were familiar with what he has done as a pro, they wouldn't be biased.

He produced more in the AHL than Asplund did in the SHL, so...

It’s actually pretty hard (impossible?) to make a fact based argument as to why Asplund would be ahead of Thompson.

 

[Jim Bob]

He produced more in the AHL than Asplund did in the SHL, so...

It’s actually pretty hard (impossible?) to make a fact based argument as to why Asplund would be ahead of Thompson.

Ummm, I actually did the math and over their two post-draft seasons, Asplund's SHL PPG is better than Thompson's AHL PPG.

And Asplund outscored Thompson at the 2017 WJCs.

Asplund has 47 pts in 89 SHL games the past two seasons for a 0.53 PPG.

Thompson has 20 pts in 46 AHL games the past two seasons for a 0.43 PPG.

And Asplund has the far superior all around game.

But yeah, there isn't a good facts based argument for why Asplund would be considered a better prospect than Thompson.

The two things Thompson has going for him are his size and the fact that the Blues were decimated by injuries last year and Thompson was rushed to the NHL before he was ready.

Well, make that second thing Thompson has in his favor is his ability to shoot on the PP.

 

[jc17]

He was selected 7 spots in front of Asplund and already has NHL experience. It looks more like familiarity bias.

I'll give you the NHL experience but using draft position to evaluate a prospect is in line with using TOI to evaluate a player's talent.

 

[stokes84]

He produced more in the AHL than Asplund did in the SHL, so...

It’s actually pretty hard (impossible?) to make a fact based argument as to why Asplund would be ahead of Thompson.

Ummm, I actually did the math and over their two post-draft seasons, Asplund's SHL PPG is better than Thompson's AHL PPG.

And Asplund outscored Thompson at the 2017 WJCs.

Asplund has 47 pts in 89 SHL games the past two seasons for a 0.53 PPG.

Thompson has 20 pts in 46 AHL games the past two seasons for a 0.43 PPG.

And Asplund has the far superior all around game.

But yeah, there isn't a good facts based argument for why Asplund would be considered a better prospect than Thompson.

The two things Thompson has going for him are his size and the fact that the Blues were decimated by injuries last year and Thompson was rushed to the NHL before he was ready.

Well, make that second thing Thompson has in his favor is his ability to shoot on the PP.

.6 ppg in the AHL to .56 ppg in the SHL this year. As 19 year olds. Keep reaching and spinning.

 

[Dirty Dog]

New shiny toy bias.

Sure insult people’s thinking, as if having Thompson at five is objectively wrong.

I have asplund ahead of him but there’s an argument other than “shiny new toy syndrome.” Maybe we should give those posters a little more respect?

 

[Jim Bob]

.6 ppg in the AHL to .56 ppg in the SHL this year. As 19 year olds. Keep reaching and spinning.

So, only this past season counts?

That's interesting....

But, that is the only way to look at what they have done since they have been drafted and keep your narrative intact.

 

[Jim Bob]

Sure insult people’s thinking, as if having Thompson at five is objectively wrong.

I have asplund ahead of him but there’s an argument other than “shiny new toy syndrome.” Maybe we should give those posters a little more respect?

I see lots of people overrating Thompson because he is newly acquired and it isn't just in this conversation.

They don't know as much about him as guys that have been Sabres prospects.

Part of the shiny toy bias is that they haven't had time to learn their flaws and they are looking at him with rose colored glasses.

I did it for a while and then I dug deeper into what Blues fans thought of him prior to the trade.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Ummm, I actually did the math and over their two post-draft seasons, Asplund's SHL PPG is better than Thompson's AHL PPG.

And Asplund outscored Thompson at the 2017 WJCs.

Asplund has 47 pts in 89 SHL games the past two seasons for a 0.53 PPG.

Thompson has 20 pts in 46 AHL games the past two seasons for a 0.43 PPG.

And Asplund has the far superior all around game.

But yeah, there isn't a good facts based argument for why Asplund would be considered a better prospect than Thompson.

The two things Thompson has going for him are his size and the fact that the Blues were decimated by injuries last year and Thompson was rushed to the NHL before he was ready.

Well, make that second thing Thompson has in his favor is his ability to shoot on the PP.

Thompson has a great shot also, but I have no hesitation putting Asplund ahead of him. Rasmus is a complete 200' forward who I have no qualms projecting as a 2/3C in the NHL. The amount of responsibility he was given, and what he accomplished, as a teenager in the SHL is just impressive. He's not going to be a prolific NHL scorer, but he can skate, make plays, and has a highly developed defensive game for his age. Thompson's size and shot make him interesting, especially looking at the Cs he may get to play with in Buffalo, but he's got a number of weaknesses to his game, too.

 

[jc17]

I did it for a while and then I dug deeper into what Blues fans thought of him prior to the trade.

If anything fan bases overrate their own prospects though.

I'm sure hurricane fans are happy with what the read about pu. This board has been very high on plenty of guys that never sniffed the league

 

[Sabre the Win]

Thompson NHL experience wasn't because he earned it so using that as a basis on his skill is premature at best.

 

[Wisent42]

Pretty crazy to decide between

Asplund
Olofsson
Thompson
Samuelsson
UPL
Ullmark

Thats the top 5-11 any way you look at it. Please don't trade any of them.

I'm not sure about cutting Pilut and Borgen out of that mix. Which makes it even crazier.

 

[tsujimoto74]

I'm not sure about cutting Pilut and Borgen out of that mix. Which makes it even crazier.

Yeah, I think Pilut is a legit top 4 D prospect. Being named the SHL defenseman of the year at 22 is nothing to sneeze at. Borgen I'm not as sure about since he doesn't have a lot of offensive tools, but he has at least bottom pairing + PK upside. Like I said earlier, I really like the depth in our pool right now. It'll probably take a few years to come together, but filling those guys in around Eichel, Mitts, Dahlin, Risto, and Reinhart could lead to some very nice things.

 

[1TuchAnd1NoTuch]

Yeah, I think Pilut is a legit top 4 D prospect. Being named the SHL defenseman of the year at 22 is nothing to sneeze at. Borgen I'm not as sure about since he doesn't have a lot of offensive tools, but he has at least bottom pairing + PK upside. Like I said earlier, I really like the depth in our pool right now. It'll probably take a few years to come together, but filling those guys in around Eichel, Mitts, Dahlin, Risto, and Reinhart could lead to some very nice things.

I actually have a lot of confidence in Borgen developing into a solid NHL player. His positioning and IQ just seem to translate so well from level to level

 

[NotABadPeriod]

I'm not sure about cutting Pilut and Borgen out of that mix. Which makes it even crazier.

Hell, I think CJ Smith should be in the discussion as well. I feel like he gets overlooked because he wasn't drafted, but he would have been playing in Buffalo at the end of the year if he wasn't hurt. He may not have the same ceiling as some of these guys but he's going to be challenging for a roster spot in camp and that means something.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

He produced more in the AHL than Asplund did in the SHL, so...

It’s actually pretty hard (impossible?) to make a fact based argument as to why Asplund would be ahead of Thompson.

Because hes the new beloved 3c prospect around here. No reason Thompson is behind Asplund besides among Sabre fans. But alas it doesnt matter how good TT is. Since he was the most important or second most important piece of the ror trade he will be unfairly hated and criticized.

But yeah the guy with no nhl experience drafted several spots after Thompson is better then the guy who has improved year by year more then Asplund and actually has nhl experience. On a good team too.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Because hes the new beloved 3c prospect around here. No reason Thompson is behind Asplund besides among Sabre fans. But alas it doesnt matter how good TT is. Since he was the most important or second most important piece of the ror trade he will be unfairly hated and criticized.

But yeah the guy with no nhl experience drafted several spots after Thompson is better then the guy who has improved year by year more then Asplund and actually has nhl experience. On a good team too.

There are 2 reasons Thompson has NHL experience:
1) The Blues had a lot of injuries pile up last year
2) The Blues did not control their own farm team last year, so Thompson wasn't being developed to their liking in the AHL.
You'll notice that neither of those reasons is that he earned it. That he got playing time in the NHL should not get him any points for the purposes of this poll.

 

[dotcommunism]

The difference between being the 26th overall pick and the 33rd overall pick is entirely a matter of how teams drew up their draft boards and absolutely not indicative of some vast gulf in draft prospect status. Look at their pre-draft rankings and they're pretty much interchangeable.

Of course beyond that, these players have two years of post-draft development. Who gives a shit about when they were drafted at this point?

 

[Royal Thunder]

Asplund has a real polish to his game that you notice when you watch him and that's why I picked him. His skating is strong and he's got enough skill to make some plays. With his compete level and smarts he is a safe bet to be a full-time NHLer at minimum. By all accounts he stood out at development camp too.