Mendes: Trading For Hemsky Earlier Wouldn't Make Differrence

[Berserker*]

And we're what? 29th in GA?

And nice of you to throw in there that I know little about hockey. Times are changing, speed, possession and hockey IQ are way more important than toughness; just ask the post lockout leafs.

Times are changing, but they have very little barring on physical play.
Big, physical teams like the Bruins, Kings, Ducks, Blues and Sharks are still among the elite in this league. The only implications on physical play is that dirty hits are all but eliminated as well as physical players that have very little hockey skill (aside from the few heavyweight enforcers that remain). Aside from that, the playoffs are still very physical and it is important to have a physical team in order to be successful.

Certainly the qualities you are mentioned are very important and more important than pure toughness but they are still inferior to a combination of toughness and skill. Pure skill teams are basically built for the regular season. They can dominate teams during the regular season and create the impression that they are a vastly superior team. But as we see time and time again, pure skill teams can't hack it in the playoffs. They don't have the requisite grit and toughness to compete with the bigger more physical teams. This is a big reason why the Sens dominated the regular season for years on end only to lose quickly in the playoffs.

This team is arguably fairly weak in both departments. The players either aren't skilled enough or our skilled players are simply too inconsistent and we don't have a very physical team. A pure finesse team can rely on their skill to win them games and pure tough team can rely on physical play and intimidation to win. We can't really rely on either. The makeup of this team is a recipe for mediocrity. In order for us to be successful going forward, we need more skilled players AND more tougher/physical players. Or ideally more tough/physical skill players.

 

[Berserker*]

This has nothing to do with what type of hockey I enjoy, or what leagues I prefer to watch. I applauded the point about Smith line already getting too much ice time because they do. That line gives up more goals than it scores, is almost continually hemmed in our D zone for long stretches at a time, and is a minus most games. I have no issue with role players and grinders, provided they get the appropriate number of minutes. On our team they do not. As I see it, adding more players who hit because they never have the puck is not the road to improving our team.

Well our "first line" isn't any better defensively. The Greening-Smith-Neil line is a combined -30, while the Michalek-Spezza-Hemsky line is a combined -39. So we are at a bigger risk of getting a goal scored against us with Spezza's line on the ice than when Smith's line is on the ice.

MacLean may overuse the GSN line but often that is because it is the only line that can fore check and cycle the puck effectively. That line has its limitations but it is usually the only player that plays hard game in game out. MacLean may be sending them out there to try and set the example of how he would like our other lines to play. If our other lines played harder, then we wouldn't have to rely so much on the GSN line.

 

[DrEasy]

Last year was absolutely a defensive system. They played passive and clogged up hockey. The forwards played less risky and backchecked more. Everything was to the outside in the Dzone.

Now this year we're back to a more offensive system, with riskier players, a lot of players that have regressed defensively and brutal goaltending for the most part.

Exactly, and so the trick was to incorporate Ryan, MacArthur and returning Spezza, Karlsson and Michalek in a way that would help improve our offense without hurting our great defense, especially given that defensively responsible players such as Alf, Gonchar and Silf were gone. Stache has failed in that respect, but it's not a small turnover (especially involving guys who eat up a lot of minutes of ice time) and therefore not an easy task when you think about it.

The quality of chances we give up in our D zone is very different from last year's. You can often predict those shots that are going to go in this year. You can often hear me sigh a tenth of a second before the goal is actually scored.

 

[Goat Boy]

Brilliant article by Mendes, as usual. Gives it straight.

One wonders if this was partially intended to gently point out the obvious to Murray and co...

 

[Baby Ryan]

Exactly, and so the trick was to incorporate Ryan, MacArthur and returning Spezza, Karlsson and Michalek in a way that would help improve our offense without hurting our great defense, especially given that defensively responsible players such as Alf, Gonchar and Silf were gone. Stache has failed in that respect, but it's not a small turnover (especially involving guys who eat up a lot of minutes of ice time) and therefore not an easy task when you think about it.

The quality of chances we give up in our D zone is very different from last year's. You can often predict those shots that are going to go in this year. You can often hear me sigh a tenth of a second before the goal is actually scored.

That's the really sad part.
Last year, I would be yelling at my TV asking how is that possible.

This year, I just know it's going to happen before the shot is actually taken.
Our defense last year was awesome, we were noted by several fans of other teams to be very "boring" similar to how Canada was "boring".
Both played defensive hockey and succeeded. Well, at least we succeeded way beyond belief with the roster we had.
We literally choked the life out of the other team and practically made it look like a practice, the other team were getting choked to death, hence by the third period our epic comebacks.
This year it's an All-Star game, except our team doesn't qualify as an "All-Star" team while we make the other look like one.

 

[Qward]

Having Hemsky earlier would have given us better puck possession earlier. Better puck possession, less time the other team has the ability to score.
More goals for us, less for them. We have 12 OT/Shootout losses.
You cannot help but think he would have an influence on us either winning in regulation preventing the OT or help us in OT/shoot outs.

 

[BonkTastic]

If we miss the playoffs by ~4 points, I guarantee you it will have mattered, because with the number of close games that we've lost this year, there's no way Hemsky wouldn't have helped us turn two 1 goal losses into two potential 1 goal wins over the course of an 82 game season.

I think on this team, with the lack of legit top-6 players we had until getting Hemsky, that his presence on our team over the course of a full year is worth at least 4 total points in the standings, easy.

We'll see.

 

[DrEasy]

How's Hemsky in the SO? Don't know where to look for SO% data...

 

[GreatStateofHockey]

The team sucks this year because our defense is bottom 5 in the league. Our offense is average to above average, and our goaltending is mediocre. Besides Karlsson, no one on the team has been a consistent top 4 defender this year.

 

[DylanSensFan]

I think that this team is a lot like Chicago. Young D core that needs to come into its own. Keith and Seabrook took a little while to develop as did the rest of Chicago's young d core. When they got that cup Chicago knew who to lock down. Now, if we can get a Hjarlmarsson type of D for the second pairing out of one of our prospects we will be doing alright.

 

[StefanW]

How's Hemsky in the SO? Don't know where to look for SO% data...

Go to http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-shootout-goals/2013/

It does not appear that Hemsky has any attempts this year. Last year he was 1/3.

 

[FireMelnyk]

Mendez is out to lunch. I have no doubt that if we had picked up Hemsky in October/November that we would be a playoff team now. We lost so many points early because Turris' line was the only one going and Spezza's was spending too much time in their own end and not generating 5on5 offense. Having 2 '#1' lines early in the year would have us sitting in the playoffs. Also, in the short time Hemsky has been here he is the one back checking hard for that line and allowing the D to step up and turn the puck up the ice which would have limited the amount Spezza had to defend.

 

[BonkTastic]

go to http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-shootout-goals/2013/

it does not appear that hemsky has any attempts this year. Last year he was 1/3.

2013 - 1/3
2011/12 - 3/6
2010/11 - 0/3
2009/10 - 2/4
2008/09 - 2/6
2007/08 - 6/16
2006/07 - 1/6
2005/06 - 5/14


*EDIT*
Since DrEasy asked, his career totals are 20/58, or a ~35% career shootout success rate.

 

[DrEasy]

Go to http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-shootout-goals/2013/

It does not appear that Hemsky has any attempts this year. Last year he was 1/3.

Yeah that's as far as I could investigate as well. I was looking for a place that would have nicely compiled his career SO% (guess I could just lookup year by year. I was feeling lazy...hold on for a sec...).

OK so he went 3 for 6 in 2011, 0 for 3 in 2010, 2 for 4 in 2009. Not bad. Might have helped us with a point or two in SO games.

But on that Edmonton team with Hall, Eberle and co I can see why he didn't get any SO attempts.

edit: Bonk stole my thunder. And did a better job too.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I dunno.

While I love the nice passing and skill of Hemsky-Spezza, something has been bothering me and I think I know what it is. The first two periods of the Nashville game, the Preds played a physical style and limited the time and space of our offense. That rendered our guys invisible. Nashville eased up in the third and basically went on cruise control, and the guys took advantage of it.

Be aggressive and forecheck the top line and you neutralize them. Not hard to figure out. Ryan definitely wouldn't fit on this line...need a mucker and grinder. Someone with decent hands who can make room for them.

 

[SelleckStache]

Mendes is right about the goaltending giving fans a false sense of security. Better goaltending would have certainly helped our PK this year.

Taking fewer penalties would have helped our PK as well, but that's another story.

 

[YNWA14]

I think most rational fans realize that our success last season was based on historically incredible goaltending, and that the lack of success this year isn't just because Spezza and Karlsson have rejoined the team and Alfredsson left.

However, having Hemsky all year very well could have made a difference. A bunch of one goal games could have been won rather than lost TBQH, and games lost by more than one could have been closer, or even gone into overtime. Pretty shortsighted article IMO.

 

[SlapJack]

He's right. I've said it before, but with parity and how tight the NHL is right now, confidence is a huge factor in many teams' performances. Ottawa lost 2 key veterans, had a tough schedule to start the season, and the goaltending has not been at the same level as last year. This is also a young team with inexperienced defencemen. Last year when the D made mistakes they got bailed out and there was actually less pressure to win since everyone wrote the team off after all the big injuries. This year there's never been a good run to build on.

Hemsky is a good add but I doubt that would've made the difference given all the things that have gone wrong this season. How many games have they lost this year where the 2 points were supposed to be a given? Too many. Hemsky might have helped but he couldn't have fixed the whole team.

 

[HSF]

you guys are fools if you think 1 player is the difference between being a playoff team and a non-playoff team

MAYBE..MAYBE if that one player is someone like Crosby or Stamkos but in my experience in hockey it is usually not 1 player that makes a difference but how the whole team players together

 

[Icelevel]

you guys are fools if you think 1 player is the difference between being a playoff team and a non-playoff team

MAYBE..MAYBE if that one player is someone like Crosby or Stamkos but in my experience in hockey it is usually not 1 player that makes a difference but how the whole team players together

we're 2 or 3 wins out of a playoff spot. that could be 3 goals total. take phillips out of the lineup and we're in the playoffs.

 

[DrakeAndJosh]

you guys are fools if you think 1 player is the difference between being a playoff team and a non-playoff team

MAYBE..MAYBE if that one player is someone like Crosby or Stamkos but in my experience in hockey it is usually not 1 player that makes a difference but how the whole team players together

One player can easily make a four point difference.

 

[Micklebot]

you guys are fools if you think 1 player is the difference between being a playoff team and a non-playoff team

MAYBE..MAYBE if that one player is someone like Crosby or Stamkos but in my experience in hockey it is usually not 1 player that makes a difference but how the whole team players together

IDK, I think one top 4 Dman might have been enough; if we had Erhoff or Edler to bump the inexperienced guys down the depth chart and Phillips off the PP, I could easily see us having got an extra 4-5 pts which could easily end up being enough to be the difference.

I'm not sure Hemsky would have made the difference since we were already fairly effective offensively, though chemistry can have exponential effects, so it's still plausible that his addition would have gotten Spezza clicking earlier too.

In the end, Defense was and still is the problem more than anything though

 

[WhiteLight*]

Also the fact that this fan base complains about the ice time of the GSN line is a strong indication of what they know about hockey. That line is used to shutdown the top line of the opposition, therefore they need to be one the ice every time the oppositions first line is out there. Hence the amount of ice time they get.

omg




Oh the irony. GSN is the problem

 

[WhiteLight*]

IDK, I think one top 4 Dman might have been enough; if we had Erhoff or Edler to bump the inexperienced guys down the depth chart and Phillips off the PP, I could easily see us having got an extra 4-5 pts which could easily end up being enough to be the difference.

I'm not sure Hemsky would have made the difference since we were already fairly effective offensively, though chemistry can have exponential effects, so it's still plausible that his addition would have gotten Spezza clicking earlier too.

In the end, Defense was and still is the problem more than anything though

That's an incredibly simplistic way of looking at things.

Defense does not equal the defense corps 1 through 7. Last year the team was fine with similar or worse personnel. There's a lot more to defense than just defensemen, just like there is a lot more to offense than just forwards.

 

[CanadianHockey]

The D was better last year than this year. The goaltending was also better last year than this year. Both were helped by the relatively shorter season.

I don't buy at all the argument that the defence is only as bad this year as it was last year.