TSN: McKenzie's Take On The Habs

[Monctonscout]

If you look around the division for players born in 1989 or later you'll see that every single team has young players that could improve.

Boston has Tyler Seguin, who has significant margin of possible improvement.
Buffalo has Ennis, Myers,
Ottawa has Turris, Karlsson,
Toronto has Kadri, JVR, Gardiner,
and Montreal has... Eller and Subban born in 1989 and not one young player born in 1990 or later with significant possibility of improvement.

We have no more young players poised for improvement than the rest of the division, and the quality is no higher.

It's not just "young" players it's guys that can bounce back from injury/poor season as well as youngER guys just breaking into the league that can move up to bigger roles.

Markov Gionta White Moen Armstrong we can reasonably expect more given any kind of better health. They only combined for about 120 games last year between them.

Bourque Kaberle and possibly Gomez even if they are halfway between last year and their career average it's a big jump forward.

Diaz Eller Emelin Subban are either on the 2nd year or still on their way to their "prime". I think Diaz and Emelin showed nice things last yaer but should take a big step forward this year. Eller showed flashes of #2 center(16 goals) play last year and hopefully will continue progressing that way. Subban is already "good" but has the potential to be "great". We could lump Price in here, he had a solid year but subpar by his stanadards, slow start and struggled in OT/SO which cost us points.

 

[DAChampion]

It's not just "young" players it's guys that can bounce back from injury/poor season as well as youngER guys just breaking into the league that can move up to bigger roles.

Markov Gionta White Moen Armstrong we can reasonably expect more given any kind of better health. They only combined for about 120 games last year between them.

Bourque Kaberle and possibly Gomez even if they are halfway between last year and their career average it's a big jump forward.

Diaz Eller Emelin Subban are either on the 2nd year or still on their way to their "prime". I think Diaz and Emelin showed nice things last yaer but should take a big step forward this year. Eller showed flashes of #2 center(16 goals) play last year and hopefully will continue progressing that way. Subban is already "good" but has the potential to be "great". We could lump Price in here, he had a solid year but subpar by his stanadards, slow start and struggled in OT/SO which cost us points.

You are assuming two things:

- That the Habs have way more mature players who can bounce back from crappy seasons than the other teams: That there are no underperforming or previously injured Mike Komisareks and Nathan Hortons in the rest of the division.

- That for every Habs player who progresses from a down year, there won't be another habs player bouncing back from a great year. Several habs had great years last year: Gorges, Pacioretty, Desharnais, Cole, etc.

- That for every injury recovery this year, e.g. Markov, there won't be any new injuries to take their place. Markov isn't the only player who can get injured. Last year, our best dman (Subban) didn't get injured and neither did Gorges. Our best overall forward (Plekanec) didn't get injured, neither did Desharnais, Pacioretty, Cole, Eller... let alone Price. I think Price missed the last three games due to a concussion.

In conclusion:

With the 4th overall pick, the Montreal Canadiens select Elias Lindholm !!!

 

[tinyzombies]

Regardless of Gomez's abysmal play, he is still a highly profiled player and if last season is any indication, management will make use of him. That is what Bobby Mac was eluding to more than whether Gomez deserves a top nine roster spot. How long did we see Gomez floating on the second line last season? Hopefully Galchenyuk cracks the lineup and Gomez becomes forgotten nightmare.

Gomez was injured last year, he'll definitely be the third line center, Eller has looked weak in the middle. "torn lat in October, a torn groin in November, then suffered an eye injury and a concussion in March."

But that creates the problem of small up the middle and small on defense (except for Emelin). And then there's Markov's knee. We go as far as that knee goes, I don't think line combinations matter.

 

[SeriousHabs]

You are assuming two things:

- That the Habs have way more mature players who can bounce back from crappy seasons than the other teams: That there are no underperforming or previously injured Mike Komisareks and Nathan Hortons in the rest of the division.

- That for every Habs player who progresses from a down year, there won't be another habs player bouncing back from a great year. Several habs had great years last year: Gorges, Pacioretty, Desharnais, Cole, etc.

- That for every injury recovery this year, e.g. Markov, there won't be any new injuries to take their place. Markov isn't the only player who can get injured. Last year, our best dman (Subban) didn't get injured and neither did Gorges. Our best overall forward (Plekanec) didn't get injured, neither did Desharnais, Pacioretty, Cole, Eller... let alone Price. I think Price missed the last three games due to a concussion.

In conclusion:

With the 4th overall pick, the Montreal Canadiens select Elias Lindholm !!!

Bang on. Go read pre-season posts from last year, and you will hear the same thing. The young will improve, injuries will dissapear, no one will regress! And then, we finish 15th, because the young didn't improve, injuries didn't dissapear and many regressed.

EDIT: We will pick Drouin with that pick!

 

[K2MyEverest]

What the hell is wrong with people here getting angry because we say Montreal doesn't have a lot of chance to makes the playoffs? Get real guys... that line up won't win a Stanley Cup. I would love to but it ain't gonna happen. Does it makes us bad fans? Not at all.

I'll hope for wins but at least I'm not blinded by my love of the CH. I can judge the line-up with a cold head and there's majors holes to fill. Like another poster said, the future is bright... this year will be a lot of testing.

Bergevin will see what are his assets and hopefully gives the team back to the young core of the team next season.

I'm so happy that hockey's back anyway but we gotta be realistic. This line up sucks, our best players are all under 26 years old approx. Good times ahead but don't get your expectations too high for this year because the wake up call might be a little brutal.

 

[Monctonscout]

You are assuming two things:

- That the Habs have way more mature players who can bounce back from crappy seasons than the other teams: That there are no underperforming or previously injured Mike Komisareks and Nathan Hortons in the rest of the division.

- That for every Habs player who progresses from a down year, there won't be another habs player bouncing back from a great year. Several habs had great years last year: Gorges, Pacioretty, Desharnais, Cole, etc.

- That for every injury recovery this year, e.g. Markov, there won't be any new injuries to take their place. Markov isn't the only player who can get injured. Last year, our best dman (Subban) didn't get injured and neither did Gorges. Our best overall forward (Plekanec) didn't get injured, neither did Desharnais, Pacioretty, Cole, Eller... let alone Price. I think Price missed the last three games due to a concussion.

In conclusion:

With the 4th overall pick, the Montreal Canadiens select Elias Lindholm !!!

Horton could bounce back and have a big year, though concussions can be a big problem(see Crosby, Savard, Pronger etc). Boston lost it's star player though, so that might hurt even if they score more goals. Rask is a good young goalie but not having Thomas there, there is no plan B if he falters.

For every Habs player that had a great year(like 4), there were two that had crappy/injured years so the law of averages is on out side.


Also, don't forget that most of our losses were 1 goal games and our GF/GA was not that bad, meaning a small improvement could be a big boost in the standings. Lots of teams above us could drop like Ottawa Florida New Jersey Boston.

 

[tinyzombies]

Horton could bounce back and have a big year, though concussions can be a big problem(see Crosby, Savard, Pronger etc). Boston lost it's star player though, so that might hurt even if they score more goals. Rask is a good young goalie but not having Thomas there, there is no plan B if he falters.

For every Habs player that had a great year(like 4), there were two that had crappy/injured years so the law of averages is on out side.


Also, don't forget that most of our losses were 1 goal games and our GF/GA was not that bad, meaning a small improvement could be a big boost in the standings. Lots of teams above us could drop like Ottawa Florida New Jersey Boston.

Rask is a much steadier goalie than Thomas. Thomas would lose games and steal games. Rask will be more consistent. They are a better team with him in there I fear.

 

[Et le But]

EDIT: We will pick Drouin with that pick!

Drouin is going top 3, the Kane by way of Giroux comparisons have only gotten louder after the WJC and some teams are still Europhobic.

I'd pick Lindholm over Drouin personally but it's close.

 

[cphabs]

The mentality is.. if we're going to miss the play-offs.. we might as well miss it horrendously. Were you around during the era that we missed the play-offs but always picked 10-12th? We couldn't get our hands on any superstars and thus continued to toil in mediocrity.

I was! I think we should create a support group

 

[tinyzombies]

All 14 non-playoff teams have a shot at the #1 pick now. New rule. No reason to tank.

 

[SeriousHabs]

All 14 non-playoff teams have a shot at the #1 pick now. New rule. No reason to tank.

Except that the last team has roughly 50x more chances than the 17th place. Also, if you are last and you lose the lottery, you still get to pick 2nd.

Go look at the historical difference between 2nd and 5th overall, just for an example. It is stunning.

 

[Halifaxhab*]

What the hell is wrong with people here getting angry because we say Montreal doesn't have a lot of chance to makes the playoffs? Get real guys... that line up won't win a Stanley Cup. I would love to but it ain't gonna happen. Does it makes us bad fans? Not at all.

I'll hope for wins but at least I'm not blinded by my love of the CH. I can judge the line-up with a cold head and there's majors holes to fill. Like another poster said, the future is bright... this year will be a lot of testing.

Bergevin will see what are his assets and hopefully gives the team back to the young core of the team next season.

I'm so happy that hockey's back anyway but we gotta be realistic. This line up sucks, our best players are all under 26 years old approx. Good times ahead but don't get your expectations too high for this year because the wake up call might be a little brutal.

They "could" make it if things go well

They "could" compete for a spot but fall just short

They "could" get a top 5 pick.


They key to this season is to just let the guys play. give the young guys leading roles in Hamilton win-lose or draw, it will only help them develop (look at Tinordi). Give expanded roles to guys like Eller and Emelin. It's really time to see what our guys can do. If they do well, we can be sellers in a way moving some older players. Heck, we can leave Gomez in the press box all year and give his icetime to someone like Eller, White, heck, my dog even.


Basically, I am going into this season with ZERO expectations and am interested in storylines, not necessarily in the outcome.

Next season, after Bergevin has time to assess and make moves, then I'll be more critical

 

[tinyzombies]

Expect that the last team has roughly 50x more chances than the 17th place.

They haven't said so yet. There's no way this team is going to tank. We have a good young core and a decent farm. It is just not going to happen. This isn't Toronto.

 

[SeriousHabs]

They haven't said so yet. There's no way this team is going to tank. We have a good young core and a decent farm. It is just not going to happen. This isn't Toronto.

This team finished behind Toronto last year. Just saying.

 

[Halifaxhab*]

They haven't said so yet. There's no way this team is going to tank. We have a good young core and a decent farm. It is just not going to happen. This isn't Toronto.

It could happen, but its not likely.

 

[tinyzombies]

They "could" make it if things go well

They "could" compete for a spot but fall just short

They "could" get a top 5 pick.


They key to this season is to just let the guys play. give the young guys leading roles in Hamilton win-lose or draw, it will only help them develop (look at Tinordi). Give expanded roles to guys like Eller and Emelin. It's really time to see what our guys can do. If they do well, we can be sellers in a way moving some older players. Heck, we can leave Gomez in the press box all year and give his icetime to someone like Eller, White, heck, my dog even.


Basically, I am going into this season with ZERO expectations and am interested in storylines, not necessarily in the outcome.

Next season, after Bergevin has time to assess and make moves, then I'll be more critical

I don't agree. Eller will have to win his role from Gomez. And if he loses that, likely, then he'll have to win a role on the wing and score. If he doesn't score, he's not going to play as much. Next season when Gomez is bought out, do they try him in the middle again? Maybe. He hasn't looked good there to me.

 

[groovejuice]

All 14 non-playoff teams have a shot at the #1 pick now. New rule. No reason to tank.

That's true. But the lottery is weighted, so the bottom seed will still have by far the best chance to pick first. The 14th place team may be 70 to 1 against or worse.

 

[tinyzombies]

This team finished behind Toronto last year. Just saying.

If Markov gets injured, we're a bubble team. Otherwise, this team should be middle of the pack, even with the size problems. If Gomez is healthy, he'll be fine. DD has to prove he can do it again or Gomez will take his spot pretty quickly (but I have confidence in DD).

 

[SeriousHabs]

If Markov gets injured, we're a bubble team. Otherwise, this team should be middle of the pack, even with the size problems.

The same can be said about Price (instant 15th place), Subban, Gorges, Pacioretty, Cole, Plekanec and Desharnais.

 

[tinyzombies]

The same can be said about Price (instant 15th place), Subban, Gorges, Pacioretty, Cole, Plekanec and Desharnais.

True, but Markov is the one I'm worried about. He has 20 games under his belt since that ugly stint last spring. And in that fight he had, he obviously favored his right leg. His left leg looked crazy strong tho@!

Not to be pessimistic, but I expect him to get injured and us to finish 9th or 10th.

Bergevin has already not done a good job dealing with our defense. And he was a defenseman! That makes me nervous too.

 

[Halifaxhab*]

I don't agree. Eller will have to win his role from Gomez. And if he loses that, likely, then he'll have to win a role on the wing and score. If he doesn't score, he's not going to play as much. Next season when Gomez is bought out, do they try him in the middle again? Maybe. He hasn't looked good there to me.

My point was basically give him the shot. If he's destined to be a winger, that's fine, but my ice-time comment was based more at PP time. Eller deserves the PP time WAY more. Unless you are really "banking on tanking" now a TM

I just don't see Gomez doing anything to really help the team on-ice unless he suddenly brings back the Gomez of post lockout 2005.

 

[Monctonscout]

What the hell is wrong with people here getting angry because we say Montreal doesn't have a lot of chance to makes the playoffs? Get real guys... that line up won't win a Stanley Cup. I would love to but it ain't gonna happen. Does it makes us bad fans? Not at all.

I'll hope for wins but at least I'm not blinded by my love of the CH. I can judge the line-up with a cold head and there's majors holes to fill. Like another poster said, the future is bright... this year will be a lot of testing.

Bergevin will see what are his assets and hopefully gives the team back to the young core of the team next season.

I'm so happy that hockey's back anyway but we gotta be realistic. This line up sucks, our best players are all under 26 years old approx. Good times ahead but don't get your expectations too high for this year because the wake up call might be a little brutal.

Being realisic means looking at what happened last year logically. Even with the players they had last yaer they had bad luck finishing 28th. Comapre the GF/GA to playoff teams like Ottawa and Florida.

So just going back to average luck and nothing else puts them around 10-12 instead of 15. That's without considering a healthier lineup, young/newer players developping, more grit coming in and a new coach and/GM(which usually lights a fire under teams).

The team has question marks but at least there are internal options to potentially fill them...and every team has holes. A lot of teams in the East went backwards by losing big players, a few more overachieved last year and a few are just plain bad(NYI Toronto). Not too many teams in the East got better.

 

[Monctonscout]

I don't agree. Eller will have to win his role from Gomez. And if he loses that, likely, then he'll have to win a role on the wing and score. If he doesn't score, he's not going to play as much. Next season when Gomez is bought out, do they try him in the middle again? Maybe. He hasn't looked good there to me.

Eller has already "erned" his spot on the top 9. He scored 16 goals last year playing mostly with crappy linemates(due to trade/injury) and with virtually no PP time.

 

[tinyzombies]

Eller has already "erned" his spot on the top 9. He scored 16 goals last year playing mostly with crappy linemates(due to trade/injury) and with virtually no PP time.

He'll be in the top 9, but will he be in the middle? I don't think so.

 

[Myron Gaines*]

I don't agree. Eller will have to win his role from Gomez. And if he loses that, likely, then he'll have to win a role on the wing and score. If he doesn't score, he's not going to play as much. Next season when Gomez is bought out, do they try him in the middle again? Maybe. He hasn't looked good there to me.

Gomez has to win a role in the starting lineup. Eller is our 3rd centre and has earned it.