We won't be 15th but highly unlikely we make the playoffs.
Lets recap, which teams in the east are definitely better than us, Philly, Pittsburgh, Boston, Rangers, Jersey and Washington for sure. So thats 6 spots. Carolina will be much better with the other Staal. That leaves us, Ottawa, Buffalo, Florida, Tampa all battling for 8th, I can't say with any conviction that we are any better than any of these teams. So basically we have a 20% chance of making playoffs, sounds about right to me.
According to this mindset, 16 months ago we were a lock to make the playoffs because we finished a strong 6th in 2011, while weak teams like NJ didn't have a hope in hell of making the playoffs. My point isn't that Montreal has fixed all its issues from last year, but that you shouldn't fall into the trap of predicting next season based on a repeat of last season. This season's standings will be a total surprise, just like they were last year. The Rangers and Penguins will probably stay consistent in the EC, but the other 13 teams are gigantic question-marks, including the Habs.
Washington - Different coach, different system, new goalie, healthy Backstrom. Could be their year if all the pieces fit, or the pieces could come apart and this could be the end of their regular season dominance.
Boston - New starting goalie, Chara's a year older. The league has caught up to their bullying style and adapted. Boston's jumped the shark and could start a decline.
Philly - Bryz could find his groove, Couturier could blossom, young defense could solidify. If so, they're a serious contender; if not, their leaky boat is up a creak without a Pronger.
Toronto - Reimer and a healthy JVR mature and rocket them into the playoffs. Or not...
NJ - Age catches up.
Carolina - Staal and Semin spark a dynamite offense and they squeak into the playoffs, or fall just short.