Mcdavid vs Matthews (This season)

[snipes]

McDavid.

By seasons end he’ll likely have 20+ more points than Matthews as he’s been heating up after a brutal 2 month stretch under Tippett where everyone struggled.

 

[Regal]

you do realize on ice save % is not a definitive stat

McDavid and company could be better at playing his position and his man, hence making the save easier for his goalie

if Matthews and linemates have a horrible on ice save %, it could be because he's allowing unchecked shots to go through to his goalie more often which results in a lower save %


or if you just want to admit Oilers defense is superior to Leafs and Koski/Smith are vezina caliber goalies thats fine with me too

In general it’s been shown that players have little impact on on-ice save percentage, especially once accounting for xGA rather than just shots against. Coming into this year, Matthews’ career 5v5 on-ice SV% was .922, and his actual GA/60 (2.43) was slightly lower than his expected GA/60 (2.58). This year, his 5v5 on-ice SV% is .885, and his actual GA/60 (3.09) is over a goal above his expected GA/60 (2.07). Unless we want to believe that Matthews suddenly became much worse at “allowing unchecked shots to go through to his goalie”, it’s unlikely that this is more than just poor luck/variance.

 

[Zybalto]

Looking at the 86 centers that have played 700+ 5v5 minutes this season, here are the best centers for both shot suppression and xGA/60 for both overall numbers and REL:

Best:

Shots/60:
1. Bergeron
2. Backlund
3. Staal
4. Coleman
5. Cirelli
(6. Matthews)

Shots/60 REL:
1. Asplund
2. Bergeron
3. O'Reilly
4. Matthews
5. Hischier

xGA/60:
1. Bergeron
2. Cirelli
3. Matthews
4. Backlund
5. Smith

xGA/60 REL:
1. Bergeron
2. Asplund
3. Lowry
4. O'Reilly
5. Suzuki
(6. Matthews)

Just outside the top 5 in two of the categories but pretty damn good.
Straight goals against is never a good way to judge D with its highly volatile goaltending variable leading the issue with it. (He's beaten Selke winners in the past for goals against including Barkov last year but It's unreliable so why dwell right?)

All in all, Matthews has put up those crazy numbers with some pretty crazy D numbers as well.

 

[Deadly Dogma]

I had AM ahead before this 5-0-1 stretch of must win games with McDavid putting up 12 points (6 goals too). It's really close though, not mad with anyone who votes AM he's having a hell of a year and in my mind has surpassed MacK as the 2nd best forward in the World right now.

I had McDavid still in front, but IMO Matthews closed to gap to the point that its crosby vs Ovi pt 2 lol

 

[authentic]

you do realize on ice save % is not a definitive stat

McDavid and company could be better at playing his position and his man, hence making the save easier for his goalie

if Matthews and linemates have a horrible on ice save %, it could be because he's allowing unchecked shots to go through to his goalie more often which results in a lower save %


or if you just want to admit Oilers defense is superior to Leafs and Koski/Smith are vezina caliber goalies thats fine with me too

Neither of those things are true though. One player has little to no effect on their on ice sv%, nevermind the idea that McDavid suddenly became the first player who was so good defensively he had such a drastic positive effect while Matthews simultaneously became the first player to be so bad defensively he had such a drastic negative effect lol

You won't find a single defensive measure where McDavid is superior to Matthews except maybe hits? It's really not close defensively between them no matter how hard you try to deny it, and their offensive gap this season is hardly substantial enough to make up for it despite McDavid scoring 2 points per game lately.

 

[authentic]

McDavid is average defensively and Matthews is above average. Any talk of them being Selke level is BS.

However McDavid is always the better player including this year

Calling Matthews simply above average defensively is such an ignorant opinion that isn't backed up by any defensive measure and it really makes it apparent you don't watch him or don't have a clue what you're watching.

 

[Zybalto]

Quick repost to show McDavid's ranking on the list of the 86 centers:

Best:

Shots/60:
1. Bergeron
2. Backlund
3. Staal
4. Coleman
5. Cirelli
(6. Matthews)
(38. McDavid)

Shots/60 REL:
1. Asplund
2. Bergeron
3. O'Reilly
4. Matthews
5. Hischier
(35. McDavid)

xGA/60:
1. Bergeron
2. Cirelli
3. Matthews
4. Backlund
5. Smith
(36. McDavid)

xGA/60 REL:
1. Bergeron
2. Asplund
3. Lowry
4. O'Reilly
5. Suzuki
(6. Matthews)
(35. McDavid)

Despite what some people try to say, he's really improved his defensive play and is above average on these lists.

 

[authentic]

I know it's also a popular opinion that defensive play is largely a matter of effort and with McDavid's speed and ability to strip players of the puck and read the play and intercept passes he's certainly no slouch in defensive ability but truthfully he's never been close to Matthews there. When Matthews consistently brings it on the defensive end like he has for much of this season there aren't many forwards who compare, especially when you combine that with his puck possession and offense.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Quick repost to show McDavid's ranking on the list of the 86 centers:

Best:

Shots/60:
1. Bergeron
2. Backlund
3. Staal
4. Coleman
5. Cirelli
(6. Matthews)
(38. McDavid)

Shots/60 REL:
1. Asplund
2. Bergeron
3. O'Reilly
4. Matthews
5. Hischier
(35. McDavid)

xGA/60:
1. Bergeron
2. Cirelli
3. Matthews
4. Backlund
5. Smith
(36. McDavid)

xGA/60 REL:
1. Bergeron
2. Asplund
3. Lowry
4. O'Reilly
5. Suzuki
(6. Matthews)
(35. McDavid)

Despite what some people try to say, he's really improved his defensive play and is above average on these lists.

In general, and not specific to either guy in this topic, I think xGA is still incredibly flawed and is way more reliant on how good a team is defensively (or at least a line is) than the individual players.

For instance, Pastrnak and Hall are ranked 2nd and 3rd, respectively, among all forwards who've played at least 700 minutes at 5on5 (score and venue adjusted). I don't think anyone would suggest either of those guys are anywhere near the 2nd or 3rd best defensive forwards in the league. On the other end of the spectrum, Ryan O'Reilly is only fractionally ahead of Connor McDavid at 2.39 xGA/60 versus 2.41 xGA/60. So unless the argument is that's proof McDavid is on O'Reilly's level defensively, it's another example of the questionable accuracy of that stat and what it actually tells you.

 

[Regal]

In general, and not specific to either guy in this topic, I think xGA is still incredibly flawed and is way more reliant on how good a team is defensively (or at least a line is) than the individual players.

For instance, Pastrnak and Hall are ranked 2nd and 3rd, respectively, among all forwards who've played at least 700 minutes at 5on5 (score and venue adjusted). I don't think anyone would suggest either of those guys are anywhere near the 2nd or 3rd best defensive forwards in the league. On the other end of the spectrum, Ryan O'Reilly is only fractionally ahead of Connor McDavid at 2.39 xGA/60 versus 2.41 xGA/60. So unless the argument is that's proof McDavid is on O'Reilly's level defensively, it's another example of the questionable accuracy of that stat and what it actually tells you.

Like anything, xGA needs the context of team, linemates and competition. Relative and regression numbers are important to consider.

 

[Petey But Really Jim]

Matthews will never have the value of McDavid, no matter how badly hf Toronto wants it. There are just different tiers of player. McDavid is his own. Matthews can’t even smell McDavid’s farts.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Like anything, xGA needs the context of team, linemates and competition. Relative and regression numbers are important to consider.

I'm talking specifically about xGA and how some folks seem to just plop it down as a "this shows a player's defensive performance" evidence. I think the stat, on its own, doesn't do nearly enough to cancel out the "noise" of a bunch of other factors that go into a player's xGA number (case in point those examples I gave) for it to be considered a good indicator of individual defensive play.

 

[Dion TheFluff]

Quick repost to show McDavid's ranking on the list of the 86 centers:

Best:

Shots/60:
1. Bergeron
2. Backlund
3. Staal
4. Coleman
5. Cirelli
(6. Matthews)
(38. McDavid)

Shots/60 REL:
1. Asplund
2. Bergeron
3. O'Reilly
4. Matthews
5. Hischier
(35. McDavid)

xGA/60:
1. Bergeron
2. Cirelli
3. Matthews
4. Backlund
5. Smith
(36. McDavid)

xGA/60 REL:
1. Bergeron
2. Asplund
3. Lowry
4. O'Reilly
5. Suzuki
(6. Matthews)
(35. McDavid)

Despite what some people try to say, he's really improved his defensive play and is above average on these lists.

where does Draisaitl rank?

 

[Paul4587]

Matthews has been really good defensively and is the best goal scorer in the league. That said McDavid is still a step ahead now he’s come out of his slump. As his on ice shooting percentages continue to normalise I think he separates himself even more from the pack.

It’s certainly helped that McDavid has gained a competent LW for the first time in a long while in Kane even if I don’t think they have a lot of chemistry, it sure beats the hell out of having Perlini or Foegele on his LW like he did around New Years when RNH, Hyman and others were hurt.

 

[Paul4587]

where does Draisaitl rank?

really low. Draisaitls defensive metrics are terrible. He does get asked to play some tough matchups and his deployment isn’t as easy as Matthews or McDavid but even with that context there’s no reason they should be as bad as they are.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Matthews is scoring at a crazy pace, and connor Mcdavid has not been a slouch either. The question is, who do you consider to be having more of an impressive season?

McDavid.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Was matthews but 14 points is 14 points

 

[BlueBaron]

14 points is big. How many minutes are they apart?

 

[TheGoldenJet]

It’s McDavid.

 

[The90]

Was matthews but 14 points is 14 points

Yes it is. However, McDavid has played 6 more games. Matthews prorated ppg is 87 points in 63 games. Let’s say a safe 85 points to take away a hot streak. With Matthews being the better defensive player, they’re closer than in years past if single digit points apart.

 

[Dion TheFluff]

14 points is big. How many minutes are they apart?

Matthews has played 6 less games. Would only be a 6 point gap if Matthews were to play those 6 games at the current pace he has so far this season. That's close enough for me to give the edge to Matthews considering the edge he has in both goal scoring and defensive play.

 

[Zybalto]

where does Draisaitl rank?

Up to 89 players with 700+ 5v5 minutes after last night and here are the numbers:

Shots/60:
1. Bergeron
2. Backlund
3. Staal
4. Coleman
5. Matthews
(36. McDavid)
(62. Draisaitl)

Shots/60 REL:
1. Asplund
2. Bergeron
3. O'Reilly
4. Matthews
5. Hischier
(37. McDavid)
(60. Draisaitl)

xGA/60:
1. Bergeron
2. Cirelli
3. Matthews
4. Smith
5. Backlund
(38. McDavid)
(54. Draisaitl)

xGA/60 REL:
1. Bergeron
2. Asplund
3. Lowry
4. Suzuki
5. O'Reilly (tie)
5. Matthews (tie)
(36. McDavid)
(65. Draisaitl)


Draisaitl has never had great defensive numbers and still doesnt.

Just after last night games, Matthews now back up into the top 5 in all 4 categories.

 

[Zybalto]

Dup

 

[Zybalto]

In general, and not specific to either guy in this topic, I think xGA is still incredibly flawed and is way more reliant on how good a team is defensively (or at least a line is) than the individual players.

For instance, Pastrnak and Hall are ranked 2nd and 3rd, respectively, among all forwards who've played at least 700 minutes at 5on5 (score and venue adjusted). I don't think anyone would suggest either of those guys are anywhere near the 2nd or 3rd best defensive forwards in the league. On the other end of the spectrum, Ryan O'Reilly is only fractionally ahead of Connor McDavid at 2.39 xGA/60 versus 2.41 xGA/60. So unless the argument is that's proof McDavid is on O'Reilly's level defensively, it's another example of the questionable accuracy of that stat and what it actually tells you.

A lot of the answers are right there in what you wrote.

The best defensive team in the league by quite a margin this season has been the Bruins, let down by a few things (including goaltending) so it's not a surprise to see wingers for that team near the top of the xGA charts.

The McDavid vs. O'Reilly thing is right there in the REL numbers. Overall xGA they may be close but there sits O'Reilly in the top 5 for both REL categories (and he plays tougher usage than most centers).

You have to look at everything and not just dismiss one stat OOC.

 

[authentic]

14 points is big. How many minutes are they apart?

McDavid has played 6 more games and averages 3:53 in PP time to 2:55 for Matthews. Then you add in all the goals scored and people really think there's a noticeable offensive gap there?