McDavid - 20/21 vs. Crosby 10/11

[authentic]

"People don't agree with me, which makes them "haters" and "kissers" who are just jealous.... wahhh!"

Take off the homer glasses, kid.


I'd like to see you try and prove that.

It was arguably Crosby around the 41 game mark, McDavid has upped his production and dominance too high though.

 

[authentic]

Why does McDavids feel more sustainable? Maybe I’m just biased?

Because it is.

 

[Regal]

How one felt a month ago about this poll shouldn't change based on performance in April and May.

-If you felt McDavid was better a month ago, then you should still feel that way.
-If you felt Crosby was better a month ago, then you should still feel that way.

McDavid getting super hot these last dozen games shouldn't change that view, just like if McDavid had gone ice cold it shouldn't have changed that view.

I think that's part of the problem with HF as a whole. People will change their opinions on players based on recency bias way more than they should.

Both seasons are such a small sample size though, so shouldn't hot streaks have significant effects? I mean, McDavid's last 10 games is almost a quarter of Crosby's games played and over 40% of his point total. It'd be different if we were judging 3 year samples or something

 

[authentic]

This is so, so wrong. As someone who has watched his entire career, I'm honestly more open to MJ's argument that Crosby has never been good defensively (although I don’t believe that either) than the idea he significantly improved his defensive abilities in the last few years.

It's perfectly right based on what I've seen. Find some stats that prove otherwise.

 

[authentic]

How one felt a month ago about this poll shouldn't change based on performance in April and May.

-If you felt McDavid was better a month ago, then you should still feel that way.
-If you felt Crosby was better a month ago, then you should still feel that way.

McDavid getting super hot these last dozen games shouldn't change that view, just like if McDavid had gone ice cold it shouldn't have changed that view.

I think that's part of the problem with HF as a whole. People will change their opinions on players based on recency bias way more than they should.

Or when it's so close to begin with it's possible for a player to sway an opinion in his favour with a higher level of play. I've gone back and forth on who's better before because they have been close enough in their careers after the same amount of games that I don't think there is a clearcut answer. But now just this season vs. Crosby's 2010-11 it's hard to argue with McDavid's dominance.

 

[bobholly39]

How one felt a month ago about this poll shouldn't change based on performance in April and May.

-If you felt McDavid was better a month ago, then you should still feel that way.
-If you felt Crosby was better a month ago, then you should still feel that way.

McDavid getting super hot these last dozen games shouldn't change that view, just like if McDavid had gone ice cold it shouldn't have changed that view.

I think that's part of the problem with HF as a whole. People will change their opinions on players based on recency bias way more than they should.

What do you mean?

Aren't we asked to judge a season's performance? I think those extra games precisely are key to make a difference. I think it was close a month ago - McDavid has now played more games, and scored at an even higher pace than before, which creates distance.

Maybe if we were asking in a vacuum who the better player is - I'd agree that a ~12 game sample shouldn't determine things. But we're being asked to compare 2 seasons. This is exactly what should matter

 

[TheGuiminator]

McDavid’s last month performance has sealed the deal. His PPG is significantly better than Crosby’s, while playing a dozen more games. His dominance over peers is also better than Crosby’s. Then you add the Hart, Ross & Lindsay as the cherry on top.

That version of McDavid is better than any version of Crosby, Ovechkin or even Jagr. What he’s doing right now is simply insane and his level of dominance this season is entering Gretzky/Lemieux territory.

 

[slapKing]

Or when it's so close to begin with it's possible for a player to sway an opinion in his favour with a higher level of play. I've gone back and forth on who's better before because they have been close enough in their careers after the same amount of games that I don't think there is a clearcut answer. But now just this season vs. Crosby's 2010-11 it's hard to argue with McDavid's dominance.

yeah I agree. what Sid during that season was incredible, and it's a shame injuries ruined it. But what McDavid is doing is insane. He separating his peers to a higher degree than Sid or Ovie ever did.

 

[Plural]

How one felt a month ago about this poll shouldn't change based on performance in April and May.

-If you felt McDavid was better a month ago, then you should still feel that way.
-If you felt Crosby was better a month ago, then you should still feel that way.

McDavid getting super hot these last dozen games shouldn't change that view, just like if McDavid had gone ice cold it shouldn't have changed that view.

I think that's part of the problem with HF as a whole. People will change their opinions on players based on recency bias way more than they should.

In a question where we're comparing 40-55 games, 10 games absolutely matters. Claiming otherwise is either idiotic or biased.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Both seasons are such a small sample size though, so shouldn't hot streaks have significant effects? I mean, McDavid's last 10 games is almost a quarter of Crosby's games played and over 40% of his point total. It'd be different if we were judging 3 year samples or something

But it's changing opinions on a 10 game sample rather than what your opinion is over the previous 40. Small sample or not, it's still a case of placing more importance over 10 games rather than the previous 41.

Let's look at it the opposite way. If someone believed McDavid was the superior player at Game 41 for each guy, then McDavid went on to score 5 points in the past 10 games, they shouldn't then use those 10 games to switch their vote to Crosby.

So then why would someone who thought Crosby was the better of the two when comparing their first 41 games suddenly feel McDavid is now the superior player after 10 extra games?

Also, this idea it's "bias" on my part (not you who suggested it) as a defense of Crosby are missing my entire point. I don't give a shit if someone chose McDavid. If you feel he's the superior player, then vote for him. What I'm saying is though it shouldn't be entirely because McDavid got red-hot over the past 10 games. Likewise, if McDavid had gone ice-cold over those 10 games, you shouldn't suddenly think Crosby was better based on McDavid's pace falling off.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Maybe if we were asking in a vacuum who the better player is - I'd agree that a ~12 game sample shouldn't determine things. But we're being asked to compare 2 seasons. This is exactly what should matter

The OP poll question specifically asks "who is better". That phrasing isn't asking who had a better season.

 

[Plural]

Who's saying it's entirely because of the past 10 or so games? You're creating a strawman.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Who's saying it's entirely because of the past 10 or so games? You're creating a strawman.

I'm saying *IF* someone's opinion has changed based off the past 10 games, that's where I think recency bias comes in. I'm not saying everyone voting McDavid is basing it off of the last 10 games.

I'm saying *IF* someone thought Crosby was better after game 41, but now thinks McDavid is better because of how he's produced these past 10 games, that's my issue.

I literally said if you've voted for McDavid even at the 41 game mark then there's zero issue from me.

 

[nowhereman]

McDavid is at 28 points in the last 10 games I believe. That's nearly 3 ppg. There is no comparison who the more dominant forward is.

Again, it's like there's almost no context whatsoever.

The guy just put up 9 points in 3 games against a Canucks team that has seen it's entire roster derailed by Covid-19 and most of the guys on the team are AHLers and waiver wire pick-ups. The rest of that stretch is just bottom-of-the-barrel games against Ottawa, Calgary and a Winnipeg team who doesn't even have a first-pairing defenseman. Those teams have already given up on the season and McDavid is just poaching points at this point. Crosby didn't have any games like that in his schedule, since his stretch was cut mid-season.

McDavid loves to pile up points almost as much as OV loves to score goals. Obviously, he's good enough to do it and deserves kudos for this ridiculous stretch that he's on but people need to pump the brakes. It's actually hilarious that people think McDavid's season is "more sustainable" than Crosby's, given all the asterisks next to this season.

If McDavid sustains this production into the playoffs and on to the next healthy season with proper divisions, I'll eat crow. Until then...

 

[Plural]

I'm saying *IF* someone's opinion has changed based off the past 10 games, that's where I think recency bias comes in. I'm not saying everyone voting McDavid is basing it off of the last 10 games.

I'm saying *IF* someone thought Crosby was better after game 41, but now thinks McDavid is better because of how he's produced these past 10 games, that's my issue.

I literally said if you've voted for McDavid even at the 41 game mark then there's zero issue from me.

10 games is more or less 1/5th of the season. We're comparing their seasons (even though you pretend we're not) and taking in to account one fifth of McDavid's season and changing mind because of it is in no way irrational. I honestly can't understand your thought process here at all.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

10 games is more or less 1/5th of the season. We're comparing their seasons (even though you pretend we're not) and taking in to account one fifth of McDavid's season and changing mind because of it is in no way irrational. I honestly can't understand your thought process here at all.

The poll question asks who is better, not who had the better season.

Because of course the guy who played the full season will end up winning the poll if it's the latter. If the question is who had the better season, it should be 100% of the votes McDavid because Crosby missed half of his and McDavid played his entire year. But that's not what the poll question asked.

 

[Plural]

The poll question asks who is better, not who had the better season.

Because of course the guy who played the full season will end up winning the poll if it's the latter. If the question is who had the better season, it should be 100% of the votes McDavid because Crosby missed half of his and McDavid played his entire year. But that's not what the poll question asked.

But who's better is determined by their performance in the games they did play. McDavid's performance in the past 10 games is essential part of it. You're making no sense.

Sorry to imply you were being biased though, I now see that's not the case. Your thought process here is just, well it's weird.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

But who's better is determined by their performance in the games they did play. McDavid's performance in the past 10 games is essential part of it. You're making no sense.

Sorry to imply you were being biased though, I now see that's not the case. Your thought process here is just, well it's weird.

It's only "weird" because you think it's me trying to defend Crosby.

It applies to the opposite hypothetical scenario where someone chose McDavid after 41 games, but then switched to Crosby if McDavid had slumped over these past 10 games instead of getting hot.

If McDavid's pace had slowed over these past 10 games, do you think it makes sense for someone who previously thought he was better than Crosby at the 41 game mark to suddenly change their view that he's no longer better because of his most recent 10 games?

 

[TopShelfYzerman]

McDavid is toying with 6 teams in a division (yes he'd win the ross in any division or a normal season too). Crosby was toying with the league.

Just like tops player Howe toyed around with the same 5 teams

 

[Plural]

It's only "weird" because you think it's me trying to defend Crosby.

It applies to the opposite hypothetical scenario where someone chose McDavid after 41 games, but then switched to Crosby if McDavid had slumped over these past 10 games instead of getting hot.

If McDavid's pace had slowed over these past 10 games, do you think it makes sense for someone who previously thought he was better than Crosby at the 41 game mark to suddenly change their view that he's no longer better because of his most recent 10 games?

It absolutely would make sense. Because those games have impact on how he played. But I'm starting to get where you're coming from. You are comparing how they performed at the time this poll was made and no additional games for McDavid should be weighed in. That's not as absurd as I first thought. I disagree with the idea, since the spirit of the poll clearly is intended to compare these two players during their said seasons. McDavid is finishing up on his and Crosby has already done what he did.

 

[nowhereman]

Just like tops player Howe toyed around with the same 5 teams

Talent was a little differently distributed back then. Not even close to the same situation.

 

[TopShelfYzerman]

Talent was a little differently distributed back then. Not even close to the same situation.

Oh so you mean just north Americans not the best of the world?

Guys who smoked regularly and worked full time jobs?

 

[bobholly39]

The OP poll question specifically asks "who is better". That phrasing isn't asking who had a better season.

I don't know to me I clearly take this poll as who has the better season. It specifically calls out the 2 seasons. And comparing these 2 - I think it was close a month ago, but now it's a close but clear edge to McDavid imo.

 

[bobholly39]

Again, it's like there's almost no context whatsoever.

The guy just put up 9 points in 3 games against a Canucks team that has seen it's entire roster derailed by Covid-19 and most of the guys on the team are AHLers and waiver wire pick-ups. The rest of that stretch is just bottom-of-the-barrel games against Ottawa, Calgary and a Winnipeg team who doesn't even have a first-pairing defenseman. Those teams have already given up on the season and McDavid is just poaching points at this point. Crosby didn't have any games like that in his schedule, since his stretch was cut mid-season.

McDavid loves to pile up points almost as much as OV loves to score goals. Obviously, he's good enough to do it and deserves kudos for this ridiculous stretch that he's on but people need to pump the brakes. It's actually hilarious that people think McDavid's season is "more sustainable" than Crosby's, given all the asterisks next to this season.

If McDavid sustains this production into the playoffs and on to the next healthy season with proper divisions, I'll eat crow. Until then...

I don't know how sustainable or not McDavid's season is. But at some point - you have to simply recognize a better offensive output when comparing 2 seasons.

You should apply a lot of context - and "adjust" scoring rates accordingly. Higher scoring league, better teammate (Drai 2021 > Malkin 2011), etc etc. But I think any sensible "adjustment" you do - McDavid's scoring rate this year still comes out slightly above Crosby's.

66 in 41 is 132 over 82 games.
96 in 52 is 151 over 82 games.

That's 14% higher production, with 11 more games played.

League wide scoring is closer to a ~5% gap than anything more than that.

Offensive production - McDavid 2021 has simply surpassed Crosby in 2011 imo.

 

[nowhereman]

Oh so you mean just north Americans not the best of the world?

There's a very big difference between playing 6 of 31 teams and playing 5 out of 6 teams, featuring the best players in North America. It's quite a bit easier to rack up points against a basement-dwelling Ottawa team with no star talent or a Covid-ravaged Vancouver team, than it is a Montreal team with Beliveau/M. Richard/H. Richard/Moore/Plante/Geoffrion or a Leafs team with Keon/Horton/Mahovalich/Kelly.

Adding Europeans to the equation doesn't even come close to making up that gap in relative competition quality.