McDavid - 20/21 vs. Crosby 10/11

[bobholly39]

What pace would start to change your opinion? He has 41 points in 28 games now vs the other 4, pacing for 120.

Good question. As of today, he now has:

36 points in 17 games against Ottawa/Calgary, or a pace of 174 points in 82 games
41 points in 28 games against the other 4, or a pace of 120 points over 82 games like you say

To be fair - if you look at Crosby's production this year, production is also skewed more towards NJ/Buffalo games then the rest. And Panarin in NYR, 2nd in ppg in the league, same idea. So I think this season in general the higher scorers are feasting on the weaker teams. So it's certainly not unique to McDavid, so when you compare him to other top scorers within 20-21, I think his lead is mostly legitimate. Maybe if some think the North is weaker you can handicap him a "tiny bit" more, but I wouldn't even do that much.

But contrasting it to Crosby in 2011 is more tricky.

McDavid's overall pace is 140 over 82 games today. Crosby in 2011 was 132 over 82 games. I still say Crosby is more impressive, since he didn't get to feast as much on weaker teams, and it was a lower scoring season overall. And not only is 2011 lower scoring then 2021, but the more apt comparison is 2011 season to 2021 North Division scoring, which is even higher.

Ask me again after 56 games. The fact that McDavid will play full 56 games vs Crosby's only 41 games would eventually offset some of advantage Crosby has here. We'll see if that's enough.

 

[Video Nasty]

I'd be willing to bet we never see McDavid score at this rate ever again. Or, at least, as long as the North Division exists.

And it doesn't make any sense to call this "regular McDavid" when he's never scored at this rate previously. This poll is comparing the two players at the same age, so it's perfectly reasonable that this could be McDavid's peak too.

Chicken or the egg really.

Whatever McDavid ends up with this season may very well be his peak PPG...but it’s also his age 24 season. It’s very likely the top for him. But hopefully he has at least one more in him next season so maybe people will stop quibbling.

Past the age of 24, Crosby has 708 points in 596 games (1.19 PPG), well below his 609 in his first 434 games (1.40 career PPG). This starts with his 56 in 36 for 2012-2013, so he has been 1.16 for a vast majority of the time since.

Gretzky had his peak raw point total at age 25 and then fell to 183 at age 26 and topped 150 “just” two other times.

Not unusual for age 24 or 25 to be the peak for most players.

McDavid is completely healthy and doing what he was going to do either way. Going into this season, he’s been above a 1.5+ ppg clip for 2.5 straight seasons and he was very likely going to see a bump either way.

He had 69 points through 45 games last year not at full strength. He has 77 in 45 games this year. He reached 77 in 50 games last year. So he did it 5 games quicker this season.

Is it really fair to cry foul over an extra 8 points during one of the key seasons in a generational player’s career with health?

 

[North Cole]

Good question. As of today, he now has:

36 points in 17 games against Ottawa/Calgary, or a pace of 174 points in 82 games
41 points in 28 games against the other 4, or a pace of 120 points over 82 games like you say

To be fair - if you look at Crosby's production this year, production is also skewed more towards NJ/Buffalo games then the rest. And Panarin in NYR, 2nd in ppg in the league, same idea. So I think this season in general the higher scorers are feasting on the weaker teams. So it's certainly not unique to McDavid, so when you compare him to other top scorers within 20-21, I think his lead is mostly legitimate. Maybe if some think the North is weaker you can handicap him a "tiny bit" more, but I wouldn't even do that much.

But contrasting it to Crosby in 2011 is more tricky.

McDavid's overall pace is 140 over 82 games today. Crosby in 2011 was 132 over 82 games. I still say Crosby is more impressive, since he didn't get to feast as much on weaker teams, and it was a lower scoring season overall. And not only is 2011 lower scoring then 2021, but the more apt comparison is 2011 season to 2021 North Division scoring, which is even higher.

Ask me again after 56 games. The fact that McDavid will play full 56 games vs Crosby's only 41 games would eventually offset some of advantage Crosby has here. We'll see if that's enough.

Yeah I haven't voted on the poll yet, waiting until the end of the season, so fortunately the poll is not closing. I think there will always be some difference between this season and potentially every other season due to zero inter divisional games, but Ottawa has been reasonably competitive with the other teams outside of EDM and VAN (got their first W yesterday i believe).

For how much he plays Ottawa he doesn't get to play BUF, CLB, NJ, DET, all of whom are very close to Ottawa in total GA this year. The North is currently tied with the East in GA/G at 2.97. (N = 932/314 vs 1106/372). The other two divisions are 2.87 and 2.90. Which amounts to 9 goals in a whole season, or about 1 per team, so I really think its overblown how much worse the North is than the other divisions.

In 2010, the Atlantic had a GA/g of 2.67, 0.3 lower than the North this year. Which is 25 goals over a season, or 3.5 per team. You can see a noticeable difference in top 20 PPG of players between seasons, as AVG ppg for the top 20 in 2010 was 1.10, this year it is 1.22. An 11% increase, while McDavid is 6% higher than Crosbys PPG. So this is a slight advantage to Crosby.

I'm curious why Hockey reference has him at 147 adjusted when his pace is 140, but im not sure how that's calculated because i thought the current year is the base year?

 

[North Cole]

Chicken or the egg really.

Whatever McDavid ends up with this season may very well be his peak PPG...but it’s also his age 24 season. It’s very likely the top for him. But hopefully he has at least one more in him next season so maybe people will stop quibbling.

Past the age of 24, Crosby has 708 points in 596 games (1.19 PPG), well below his 609 in his first 434 games (1.40 career PPG). This starts with his 56 in 36 for 2012-2013, so he has been 1.16 for a vast majority of the time since.

Gretzky had his peak raw point total at age 25 and then fell to 183 at age 26 and topped 150 “just” two other times.

Not unusual for age 24 or 25 to be the peak for most players.

McDavid is completely healthy and doing what he was going to do either way. Going into this season, he’s been above a 1.5+ ppg clip for 2.5 straight seasons and he was very likely going to see a bump either way.

He had 69 points through 45 games last year not at full strength. He has 77 in 45 games this year. He reached 77 in 50 games last year. So he did it 5 games quicker this season.

Is it really fair to cry foul over an extra 8 points during one of the key seasons in a generational player’s career with health?

I think we would have also seen Crosbys PPG diminish slower past age 25 had his brain not been scrambled.

 

[Video Nasty]

I think we would have also seen Crosbys PPG diminish slower past age 25 had his brain not been scrambled.

Totally. I just meant that it’s hardly unusual for the best to have their peak years right around McDavid’s age. Crosby still would have seen a decline, like basically everyone else in league history.

I don’t know what else people want from McDavid in the regular season. Year after year of 1.5 PPG, multiple 100 point seasons and if not for COVID, he’d be wrapping up a 5th consecutive 100 point campaign which hasn’t been done in ages, will have 2 Harts, 3 Lindsays, 3 Art Rosses, and 5 consecutive top 2 scoring finishes after 6 seasons. Still has about a 5 year window to really fill up the trophy cabinet and put himself in territory basically only surpassed by the Big Four.

Yet there’s some people think what he’s doing this year is something crazy new and totally out of character.

As for the topic, I see both sides, but I think McDavid has to win it no matter what in the end because he’ll have played the complete campaign and will have all the major hardware.

 

[North Cole]

Totally. I just meant that it’s hardly unusual for the best to have their peak years right around McDavid’s age. Crosby still would have seen a decline, like basically everyone else in league history.

I don’t know what else people want from McDavid in the regular season. Year after year of 1.5 PPG, multiple 100 point seasons and if not for COVID, he’d be wrapping up a 5th consecutive 100 point campaign which hasn’t been done in ages, will have 2 Harts, 3 Lindsays, 3 Art Rosses, and 5 consecutive top 2 scoring finishes after 6 seasons. Still has about a 5 year window to really fill up the trophy cabinet and put himself in territory basically only surpassed by the Big Four.

Yet there’s some people think what he’s doing this year is something crazy new and totally out of character.

As for the topic, I see both sides, but I think McDavid has to win it no matter what in the end because he’ll have played the complete campaign and will have all the major hardware.

Hes also been top 5 in Hart voting every year outside of his rookie year. So even in the years he doesnt win he has crazy placements.

One of the reasons I laughed at the HoF eligibility poll for McDavid. Clearly a lock

Think I agree with the last paragraph, haven't voted yet but if he finishes the season 1.7+ ppg I'd have a hard time not voting him.

 

[Bluesguru]

Crosby greater. McDavid is a highlight reel but that’s all. Crosby brings so much more.

 

[ThisIsMyAlibi]

Crosby AINEC

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Crosby was in a lower scoring season, didn't have a team mate 2nd in pts, was playing against the entire NHL and not just the same 6 teams. So through 41 games it's him. But if McDavid keeps doing what he's doing for 56 games it's him because producing for 56 games > producing for 41 games, despite the division.

On the flip side teams can really game plan against teams and specific players since every game counts as a 4 point game in the NHL this season. And while Ottawa has had a tough season, I wouldn't call any team in the north (including Ottawa) a pushover. McDavid didn't get to play against struggling teams like Buffalo, Detroit, San Jose and Anaheim for instance.

 

[thadd]

Crosby and it isn't close.
Even if we ignore the fact that 2010 Crosby was a more well rounded player, there's the competition that Crosby faced that season.
I think the poll should be how many points would McDavid be scoring if he was playing every team in the league this year.
Not only is the northern division weak defensively, the more he plays them the better he gets at figuring out how to light them up.
Northern teams aren't getting any better at containing him.
If he scores at this pace next season (assuming it's back to normal) it'll take everything I said here back but until he does it I'm giving my vote to Crosby.

 

[Wheatking]

On the flip side teams can really game plan against teams and specific players since every game counts as a 4 point game in the NHL this season. And while Ottawa has had a tough season, I wouldn't call any team in the north (including Ottawa) a pushover. McDavid didn't get to play against struggling teams like Buffalo, Detroit, San Jose and Anaheim for instance.

It's also worth noting that the Senators have a pretty respectable record (17-18-4) for a basement dweller if you subtract their games against McDavid. So it's interesting that by almost single handedly ruining the Senantors' season, he's making all those points invalid. Weird logic.

 

[Wheatking]

Crosby and it isn't close.
Even if we ignore the fact that 2010 Crosby was a more well rounded player, there's the competition that Crosby faced that season.
I think the poll should be how many points would McDavid be scoring if he was playing every team in the league this year.
Not only is the northern division weak defensively, the more he plays them the better he gets at figuring out how to light them up.
Northern teams aren't getting any better at containing him.
If he scores at this pace next season (assuming it's back to normal) it'll take everything I said here back but until he does it I'm giving my vote to Crosby.

I'd argue that recent games against the Leafs, Canadiens and Jets would show that they are figuring out how to slow him down. I don't know what the stats say but we only have to watch the games to see teams are clogging up the middle much more against him and he's needed to find new ways to create offence.

An opponent playing him enough times to commit to a specific game plan to shut him down, like we'd see in a playoff series, is clearly a disadvantage for McDavid in this case.

 

[SkinsFan09]

Crosby was always much more than just points. Just a complete hockey player. Really annoying how good he was/is defensively.

Crosby's defensive prowess has always been overrated - people act like he's Sergei Federov though he is very solid to be sure.

But this is clearly Crosby. He had less support from Malkin than McDavid is from Draisatl, and again he did this in a real season playing the full NHL with normal travel etc. not intradivisional play.

All stats from this year have to be taken with a grain of salt, that is just reality.

 

[bobholly39]

What pace would start to change your opinion? He has 41 points in 28 games now vs the other 4, pacing for 120.

I think I've changed my opinion now. Current McDavid season > 2011 Crosby season. Few reasons why:

- His ppg is simply higher. Quite a bit. He's pacing for 151 points in 82 games now. Crosby's was 132 over 82, it's starting to be a pretty huge gap. Even if you adjust scoring rates accordingly, not sure you quite bridge the gap. And McDavid is doing it over even more games.

- In post #110 I showed how McDavid was pacing for 191 points over Calgary/Ottawa (2 bottom 5 teams in league at the time) and 108 vs other 4 teams. But that's changed since then. Ottawa/Calgary aren't bottom 5 in league right now. His scoring pace has also increased a lot vs other teams. He's now scoring at a 168 point pace vs Calgary/Ottawa vs a 142 point pace vs the others.

I think we shouldn't compare McDavid's scoring exact raw totals to raw totals with Crosby, since scoring was lower back then, and McDavid has the teammate advantage (Malkin sucked and barely played in 2011). But any adjustment you do that tries to be fair, still seems to give McDavid the edge overall due to his insane production.

So yeah - peak short season, I'll change my vote for McDavid 2021 over Crosby 2011.
We'll see if he can keep this up in coming years, or if he can begin to match some of Crosby's consistency over his prime or his playoff career. But for these 2 shortened seasons, give me McDavid.

 

[slapKing]

originally voted for Crosby, changed my vote to McDavid.

 

[authentic]

Crosby and it isn't close.
Even if we ignore the fact that 2010 Crosby was a more well rounded player, there's the competition that Crosby faced that season.
I think the poll should be how many points would McDavid be scoring if he was playing every team in the league this year.
Not only is the northern division weak defensively, the more he plays them the better he gets at figuring out how to light them up.
Northern teams aren't getting any better at containing him.
If he scores at this pace next season (assuming it's back to normal) it'll take everything I said here back but until he does it I'm giving my vote to Crosby.

Still think it isn't close?

 

[authentic]

Crosby's defensive prowess has always been overrated - people act like he's Sergei Federov though he is very solid to be sure.

But this is clearly Crosby. He had less support from Malkin than McDavid is from Draisatl, and again he did this in a real season playing the full NHL with normal travel etc. not intradivisional play.

All stats from this year have to be taken with a grain of salt, that is just reality.

Crosby in 2010-11 isn't even better than McDavid defensively now.

 

[Steven Toast]

This should be more onesided in McDavids favour. 96 points in 53 games. 19 points clear of 2nd, 30 points clear of 3rd place in just over 50 gp!

Significantly higher production and for a longer stretch of games.

McDavids year is the most impressive offensive season of the 21st century.

 

[McFlash97]

All the haters and Crosby kissers out in full force I see. Generally the voting is swayed in the wrong direction when haters and jealous folks are trying to make some sort of point....

McDavids regular season absolutely trounces any stretch of regular season Crosby has ever put up.

 

[nowhereman]

All the haters and Crosby kissers out in full force I see. Generally the voting is swayed in the wrong direction when haters and jealous folks are trying to make some sort of point....

McDavids regular season absolutely trounces any stretch of regular season Crosby has ever put up.

"People don't agree with me, which makes them "haters" and "kissers" who are just jealous.... wahhh!"

Take off the homer glasses, kid.

Crosby in 2010-11 isn't even better than McDavid defensively now.

I'd like to see you try and prove that.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Crosby in 2010-11 isn't even better than McDavid defensively now.

This is so, so wrong. As someone who has watched his entire career, I'm honestly more open to MJ's argument that Crosby has never been good defensively (although I don’t believe that either) than the idea he significantly improved his defensive abilities in the last few years.

 

[Fledgemyhedge]

Why does McDavids feel more sustainable? Maybe I’m just biased?

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

How one felt a month ago about this poll shouldn't change based on performance in April and May.

-If you felt McDavid was better a month ago, then you should still feel that way.
-If you felt Crosby was better a month ago, then you should still feel that way.

McDavid getting super hot these last dozen games shouldn't change that view, just like if McDavid had gone ice cold it shouldn't have changed that view.

I think that's part of the problem with HF as a whole. People will change their opinions on players based on recency bias way more than they should.

 

[Nadal On Clay]

This is for sure the closest someone has been to 2010 Crosby in the last 20 years. It can really go either way depending on what you value more.

 

[McFlash97]

McDavid is at 28 points in the last 10 games I believe. That's nearly 3 ppg. There is no comparison who the more dominant forward is.