Matthews Extension

[Divine]

Because the Leafs are paying the same Cap % on his next contract. The only difference is that contract will be 8 years.

Do you think Matthews will be a better player 5 years from today?

If not, they’re not paying for his decline.

Like I’ve said before, the stats show that the majority of players peak in their early to mid 20’s, and decline.

On an 8 year deal at the age of 26, you’re underpaying at the start and overpaying at the end - unless you believe the player at 34 will be just as good or better than he is at 26.

In that regard, a 4 year deal should be more expensive than an 8 assuming it takes them into their mid 30’s because you’re not overpaying for declining years. It’s the same reason the 12+ year deals got banned because teams just dropped the salary near the end with the understanding the player will decline and retire.

 

[Divine]

Well... over half the ppl think it's an overpay (60.4%).

View attachment 741749

This opinion has a lot to do with playoff performance (both individual and team), the contract's relative value compared to every other player in the league, as well as the fact that the contract will likely not become a bargain in its later years given how short it is (unlike almost every other superstars' long term deals). These arguments are straightforward and do not need to be further explained.

Anyway, good luck convincing everyone else that your take is smarter / better than theirs, I think it will be relatively difficult but that is just my opinion

That’s fine. A slight majority. Around 40% think it’s fair value/underpay. I understand you believe Matthews will be better at 34 than 26, and you’re entitled to that.

 

[Nothingbutglass]

Do you think Matthews will be a better player 5 years from today?

If not, they’re not paying for his decline.

Like I’ve said before, the stats show that the majority of players peak in their early to mid 20’s, and decline.

On an 8 year deal at the age of 26, you’re underpaying at the start and overpaying at the end - unless you believe the player at 34 will be just as good or better than he is at 26.


In that regard, a 4 year deal should be more expensive than an 8 assuming it takes them into their mid 30’s. It’s the same reason the 12+ year deals got banned because teams just dropped the salary near the end with the understanding the player will decline and retire.

Do you think he'll be better this year than he was last year? His production noticeably dropped last year and his skating and shot were labored. He might have already peaked. I doubt if he gets back to his 100 point outlier season.

 

[Divine]

Do you think he'll be better this year than he was last year? His production noticeably dropped last year and his skating and shot were labored. He might have already peaked. I doubt if he gets back to his 100 point outlier season.

Yes, I do. He was injured last season and Dubas said he was struggling to hold a stick during the season. Something was obviously wrong with him when he was scared to shoot and they moved him in front of the net on the PP for tips when he’s the back to back Rocket winner.

I think his constantly injured wrists, even after surgery are an argument for a shorter term contract.

I’m hoping he’s healed now. If he has another season like last year, then at least you can take solace that he’s overpaid for 4 years instead of 8.

 

[TS Quint]

Do you think Matthews will be a better player 5 years from today?

If not, they’re not paying for his decline.

Like I’ve said before, the stats show that the majority of players peak in their early to mid 20’s, and decline.

On an 8 year deal at the age of 26, you’re underpaying at the start and overpaying at the end - unless you believe the player at 34 will be just as good or better than he is at 26.

In that regard, a 4 year deal should be more expensive than an 8 assuming it takes them into their mid 30’s because you’re not overpaying for declining years. It’s the same reason the 12+ year deals got banned because teams just dropped the salary near the end with the understanding the player will decline and retire.

Leafs don’t care. Matthews will never put on another jersey. The Leafs will give another blank Cheque. At that point the Leafs will do as the Pens and Caps are doing now. You give the long contract and by the time the last few years come up they don’t care about Matthews decline because the team is ready to rebuild.

Your entire premise that this Contract is good because Matthews is already on his decline is weird. Like the only ways to justify His contract are negative for Matthews and the Leafs. Good luck.

 

[Divine]

Leafs don’t care. Matthews will never put on another jersey. The Leafs will give another blank Cheque. At that point the Leafs will do as the Pens and Caps are doing now. You give the long contract and by the time the last few years come up they don’t care about Matthews decline because the team is ready to rebuild.

Your entire premise that this Contract is good because Matthews is already on his decline is weird. Like the only ways to justify His contract are negative for Matthews and the Leafs. Good luck.

I think you misread my post. I didn’t say he’s on his decline. I said he’s likely declining when his contract ends. I said on an 8 year contract you’re paying for his decline, he signed a 4 year contract and not an 8 year one. His contract is pretty much for his prime years, unless he starts declining at 29 or something.

Both Malkin and Crosby took less on their next contracts because they weren’t in their primes. The same with most other players who sign after 30.

 

[The90]

Leafs don’t care. Matthews will never put on another jersey. The Leafs will give another blank Cheque. At that point the Leafs will do as the Pens and Caps are doing now. You give the long contract and by the time the last few years come up they don’t care about Matthews decline because the team is ready to rebuild.

Your entire premise that this Contract is good because Matthews is already on his decline is weird. Like the only ways to justify His contract are negative for Matthews and the Leafs. Good luck.

Dude, we get it. You don’t like Matthews or his contract. This is getting weird. (We’re actually well past getting)

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I think you misread my post. I didn’t say he’s on his decline. I said he’s likely declining when his contract ends. I said on an 8 year contract you’re paying for his decline, he signed a 4 year contract and not an 8 year one. His contract is pretty much for his prime years, unless he starts declining at 29 or something.

Both Malkin and Crosby took less on their next contracts because they weren’t in their primes. The same with most other players who sign after 30.

Crosby signed for the exact same amount. Both his 5 year and his 12 year were for $8.7 million AAV, so I don't know where you're getting that he took less. And the reason he was able to stay at $8.7 million on his second deal was because he could go 12 years and use the last 3 years to really lower the average.

Malkin got a raise. His first post ELC deal was the same as Crosby at $8.7 million AAV. His next deal was for $9.5 million AAV. The only time he took less was literally this past deal when he signed at age 36. So I hope you're not attempting to compare Matthews' ask at age 31 to a 36 year old Malkin's situation.

 

[sennysensen]

Fair value.

If Matthews had gone to UFA, he would have got $15 mil, which would have been an overpay. That's how July 1 goes.

McDavid will leap him when his contract is up, he'll probably get like $17-18 mil.

 

[TS Quint]

I think you misread my post. I didn’t say he’s on his decline. I said he’s likely declining when his contract ends. I said on an 8 year contract you’re paying for his decline, he signed a 4 year contract and not an 8 year one. His contract is pretty much for his prime years, unless he starts declining at 29 or something.

Both Malkin and Crosby took less on their next contracts because they weren’t in their primes. The same with most other players who sign after 30.

Dare to dream kid. So the idea is Matthews scores 60 goals in the last year of his contract and then takes a discount? Now I get it.

Dude, we get it. You don’t like Matthews or his contract. This is getting weird. (We’re actually well past getting)

If it isn't my stalker again.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

Dude, we get it. You don’t like Matthews or his contract. This is getting weird. (We’re actually well past getting)

Lol I saw he had posts deleted from a Dahlin thread because he started screeching about Matthews right away, he literally can't help himself.

 

[The90]

Lol I saw he had posts deleted from a Dahlin thread because he started screeching about Matthews right away, he literally can't help himself.

He’s got like 70 posts about Matthews this week alone lol. Really weird stuff

 

[Divine]

Dare to dream kid. So the idea is Matthews scores 60 goals in the last year of his contract and then takes a discount? Now I get it.

If he scores 60 goals as a 30 year old, he might be the best goal scorer of all time. Even Ovechkin and Gretzky couldn’t manage that.

Dare to dream kid.

 

[PainForShane]

That’s fine. A slight majority. Around 40% think it’s fair value/underpay. I understand you believe Matthews will be better at 34 than 26, and you’re entitled to that.

That's not remotely close to any of the arguments or beliefs, which were clearly spelled out in the very post you quoted. More bad faith nonsense, why am I not surprised.

In the meantime, the poll closed, you've been arguing for multiple pages that AM's 4 year extension's great from Toronto's perspective. Looks like less than 3% of ppl agree with you and the other 97% don't. Which means, unsurprisingly, that you weren't able to convince anyone of anything. Better luck next time.

And also, MacKinnon's better.

 

[TS Quint]

If he scores 60 goals as a 30 year old, he might be the best goal scorer of all time. Even Ovechkin and Gretzky couldn’t manage that.

Dare to dream kid.

What kind of player do you think you have in Matthews at 30 years old. How far is he going to fall to justify the short/expensive contract? Then what do you think his next contract looks like?

 

[Divine]

That's not remotely close to any of the arguments or beliefs, which were clearly spelled out in the very post you quoted. More bad faith nonsense, why am I not surprised.

In the meantime, the poll closed, you've been arguing for multiple pages that AM's 4 year extension's great from Toronto's perspective. Looks like less than 3% of ppl agree with you and the other 97% don't. Which means, unsurprisingly, that you weren't able to convince anyone of anything. Better luck next time.

And also, MacKinnon's better.

Congrats. Hang up a banner. I'm not as heavily invested in Auston Matthews as you. I believe it's fair value, not bad value because of the term - which ~40% of the posters do. I would say it was overvalued if it was 13.5M x 8 because I expect Matthews to be a worse player than he is today for the last 4 years of the deal - just like almost every other player in NHL history. Which is why 8 year deals are usually cheaper, because you are overpaying the players near the end of their contracts. See: Tavares, Toews, Kane - none of them are getting the 10.5M/11M they were getting just last year on their next contracts because they were overpaid on the last few years of their deal.

What kind of player do you think you have in Matthews at 30 years old. How far is he going to fall to justify the short/expensive contract? Then what do you think his next contract looks like?

I don't know - that's like me asking you how good to you think Matthews will be at 30 years old. The stats suggest most players peak in their early to mid 20's. It happened to Gretzky, Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, etc. They put up their peak seasons in their 20's and declined. The question of how big or how fast the decline depends on the individual player.

His next contract depends on the term. If he's looking for 8 years, his cap hit is most likely much lower. If he's looking for another 2-3 years and he barely declines, his cap hit may be the same as this year. I don't think his cap hit is higher (even with a higher cap) than it is right now because that's very unusual for older players unless he pulls a Joe Thornton and signs a 1 year contract at 30.

In that respect, I think this benefitted the Leafs more than it did Matthews. As even Crosby and Malkin took a lower cap % on their 30+ contracts. The same with Ovechkin.

Stamkos is due for a contract for next year, let's see if his cap hit magically jumps with the higher cap or if it drops due to him being 33.

 

[TS Quint]

I don't know - that's like me asking you how good to you think Matthews will be at 30 years old. The stats suggest most players peak in their early to mid 20's. It happened to Gretzky, Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, etc. They put up their peak seasons in their 20's and declined. The question of how big or how fast the decline depends on the individual player.

His next contract depends on the term. If he's looking for 8 years, his cap hit is most likely much lower. If he's looking for another 2-3 years and he barely declines, his cap hit may be the same as this year. I don't think his cap hit is higher (even with a higher cap) than it is right now because that's very unusual for older players unless he pulls a Joe Thornton and signs a 1 year contract at 30.

In that respect, I think this benefitted the Leafs more than it did Matthews. As even Crosby and Malkin took a lower cap % on their 30+ contracts. The same with Ovechkin.

Stamkos is due for a contract for next year, let's see if his cap hit magically jumps with the higher cap or if it drops due to him being

Didn't think I would get an answer.

 

[Divine]

Didn't think I would get an answer.

So you lead the charge.

What do you think a 30 year old Matthews gets? Give us the term and AAV.

 

[TS Quint]

So you lead the charge.

What do you think a 30 year old Matthews gets? Give us the term and AAV.

He will get the same cap % but over 8 years.

 

[Divine]

He will get the same cap % but over 8 years.

I hope it’s not with Toronto then

 

[PainForShane]

Congrats. Hang up a banner. I'm not as heavily invested in Auston Matthews as you.

Your takes have gone from absurd to absurdist. smh

 

[Divine]

Your takes have gone from absurd to absurdist. smh

It's true.

My take is I would prefer 4 years at a higher cap hit than 8 years at the same cap hit, given the statistical age of decline. My ideal contract for Matthews was for 5 years - and I have been very vocal about that when it came out that he was open to a shorter term deal, as usually it's the player that prefers term and not the team.

Your take is 60% of people agree with you, therefore you are right and I am wrong. Sure - because HfBoards is always right.

Let's see - this poll about who wins the Rocket first (Laine vs Matthews) had 75% of people picking Laine:

Who do you think wins the Rocket Richard first: Laine or Matthews?

simple question

forums.hfboards.com

You're right - HfBoards voted it so it must be true.

We'll see in 5 years if Matthews gets more than he does today. Matthews is taking all the risk, any issue with injuries or a decline (as some posters say it's a bad contract while also saying he has already peaked) and the Leafs will have come out on top. Matthews is betting he maintains his performance into his 30's AND a team will give him even more - or possibly he takes a lower hit to 38 and ends up making more money that way.

 

[PainForShane]

It's true.

My take is I would prefer 4 years at a higher cap hit than 8 years at the same cap hit, given the statistical age of decline. My ideal contract for Matthews was for 5 years - and I have been very vocal about that when it came out that he was open to a shorter term deal, as usually it's the player that prefers term and not the team.

Your take is 60% of people agree with you, therefore you are right and I am wrong. Sure - because HfBoards is always right.

Let's see - this poll about who wins the Rocket first (Laine vs Matthews) had 75% of people picking Laine:

Who do you think wins the Rocket Richard first: Laine or Matthews?

simple question

forums.hfboards.com

You're right - HfBoards voted it so it must be true.

We'll see in 5 years if Matthews gets more than he does today. Matthews is taking all the risk, any issue with injuries or a decline (as some posters say it's a bad contract while also saying he has already peaked) and the Leafs will have come out on top. Matthews is betting he maintains his performance into his 30's AND a team will give him even more - or possibly he takes a lower hit to 38 and ends up making more money that way.

No, that is not my take. I fully explained my take a few posts ago, you pretended I said something else entirely. Exactly like you did just now. You also pretended you're "not as heavily invested in Matthews" as I am, which is not even close to believable.

I brought up the 97% of people who disagree with you solely to demonstrate that you have not convinced anyone of anything. Despite however many pages of biased / circular nonsense you have posted and apparently will continue to post. My post explaining that was pretty clear.

Anyway it looks like you are still looking to argue in bad faith about Auston Matthews' extension, perhaps you'll still be able to convince some people to agree with you. I think it's unlikely, but unfortunately the poll is closed so no one will know either way. Better luck next time

 

[Divine]

No, that is not my take. I fully explained my take a few posts ago, you pretended I said something else entirely. Exactly like you did just now. You also pretended that you're "not as heavily invested in Matthews" as I am, which is not even close to believable.

I brought up the 97% of people who disagree with you solely to demonstrate that you have not convinced anyone of anything. Despite however many pages of biased / circular nonsense you have posted and apparently will continue to post. My post explaining that was pretty clear.

Anyway it looks like you are still arguing in bad faith about Auston Matthews' extension, perhaps you'll still be able to convince some people to agree with you. But unfortunately the poll is closed so no one will know either way. Better luck next time

1.) You're not even reading the poll correctly. I said he's fairly paid, 3% say he's underpaid.
2.) You're assuming people read all my posts before voting.
3.) If people read my posts after voting, they couldn't change their vote if they wanted to.

Your entire premise is flawed.

 

[PainForShane]

1.) You're not even reading the poll correctly. I said he's fairly paid, 3% say he's underpaid.
2.) You're assuming people read all my posts before voting.
3.) If people read my posts after voting, they couldn't change their vote if they wanted to.

Your entire premise is flawed.

Ha. I've been posting for a few years, I think this is the first time I've ever seen such a short post where all of the lines contain basic lies / false statements. Congratulations I guess.

1) Regardless of what you just claimed in the post above, everyone can see you've been arguing for multiple weeks that Matthews' deal is GREAT for the Leafs re: both AAV and term. That literally means you've been arguing he's underpaid. Because if, as you argue, the Leafs won on both AAV and term then Matthews clearly could've / should've gotten more. I find it borderline laughable that you're trying to deny this -- what's next, trying to deny you're invested in Auston Matthews? Oh wait...

2) I'm absolutely not assuming ppl have read your posts, actually I think most ppl probably tuned you out a long time ago. Either way this is unrelated to the point that you only managed to get 2.7% of ppl to agree with you -- whether or not ppl read your posts is irrelevant, the result is still the result. This is not hard to understand, not sure why you think you'll be able to mislead ppl by making such an irrelevant statement.

3) Re: changing your vote in a poll, as you and everybody else knows, before any poll closes you can change your vote as many times as you want. So your claim that ppl can't change their vote while the poll is open is just... bizarre and very strange. Who are you trying to fool and how gullible do you think they are, you know? Anyway, that's why I put a screenshot of the poll results a day or so before it closed, I was honestly curious to see if you were able to change any votes before the poll closed. You weren't.

So yeah, yet another low quality post from Divine. Like I said before, you're slipping