Matthews Extension

[PainForShane]

The difference with Wilson is he signed his current contract with a career high of 14 goals and 35 points and it was his only year over 7 goals or 23 points at the time. He had just come off a strong playoffs, but his contract was in part due to potential, and it was somewhat lower because of that. Since then, he’s averaged 26 goals and 54 points per 82 games. He’s been a much better player leading up to this contract and you could argue the only reason he didn’t get more than he did was because it was lowered due to being a long term deal at that age.

With Matthews, he’s not likely going to make a leap as a player, so it’s a different situation. The fact is, there’s so many factors that go into contract negotiations than it’s impossible to find a perfect comparison. What we do know is that, in general, long term deals taking a player from 30/31 to his late 30s tend to lower the AAV over what they would get on a short term deal starting at the same age. If he doesn’t significantly decline, with the cap likely going up decently, he’d probably get more over a short term deal after the current one. If he goes 8 after this though, it’s entirely possible it’d be at a similar or slightly lower rate. It really depends on where the market is at that point and what he’d get on a short term deal with natural decline built in in the later years.

Yeah, like you said there's no perfect comparison, and of course there's always some uncertainty. And you raised some good points about Tom Wilson, thx for that. That said a couple posts up, Peat mentioned Drew Doughty as a better comp (I think I agree there), but obviously defensemen are different than centers and Doughty had already won 2 cups before that 3rd contract of his, we're not going to find apples to apples player comps and besides it will be a different cap situation regardless. However, every comp we can find does suggest Matthews will be able to negotiate a raise.

Furthermore, after considering this for a while I can't imagine a situation where Toronto wouldn't do their absolute best to keep a 31 year old Matthews on their team -- 31 is not that old and AM means way too much to the franchise. It'd be like Edm not doing their best to try to keep McD which is not even remotely a possibility. And bc AM34 hasn't yet taken a team friendly deal, I don't see a situation where he'd completely pivot and decide to take one in his next contract.

Put another way, he knows he is Toronto's franchise player, he's going to get his money exactly the same way he's been able to so far in his career. Now the important thing is how he does in the playoffs and whether he can lead the team to a cup or two

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

How many RFA’s maximized their dollar figure from a young age though, then also re-signed at 31? I think Matthews would be pretty unique because most UFAs signing at 31 aren’t coming off full market value deals. Most high value UFA deals at that age are for a player who was already overperforming his contract leading up to UFA. Depending on how much the cap goes up, that might not be the case with Matthews.

It's irrelevant in the grand scheme of things unless you think Matthews' performance at age 31 will drastically decline from his performance right now.

Again, knowing what we know about NHL GMs and free agency, if Matthews became available on July 1st the year his contract extension expires, do you honestly think there won't be teams willing to surpass his current contract? If a team desperately needs a high-end 1C, you think they'd balk at anything over his current contract? Does that sound the least bit realistic?

We're talking about him turning 31, here, not 35 or 36. Most elite players remain elite at age 31, even if they're not quite the player they are at their peak.

The fact it might be a "unique" situation is a bit of a red herring. The only question that matters is whether or not a]Matthews at age 31 is still elite and b]whether teams around the league who desperately want an elite 1C will be willing to outbid everyone else (ie. pay him more than his current deal) to land him.

The other thing you have to consider: Matthews is in it for the money. If Matthews (and his agent) don't think he can get MORE on his next deal, they damn well would have taken an 8 year term on the extension. No way Matthews and his agent take a 4 year term and then take a pay CUT in 4 year's time rather than sign for 8 years so he's guaranteed $13.25 million for the next 8 years.

 

[Regal]

It's irrelevant in the grand scheme of things unless you think Matthews' performance at age 31 will drastically decline from his performance right now.

Again, knowing what we know about NHL GMs and free agency, if Matthews became available on July 1st the year his contract extension expires, do you honestly think there won't be teams willing to surpass his current contract? If a team desperately needs a high-end 1C, you think they'd balk at anything over his current contract? Does that sound the least bit realistic?

We're talking about him turning 31, here, not 35 or 36. Most elite players remain elite at age 31, even if they're not quite the player they are at their peak.

The fact it might be a "unique" situation is a bit of a red herring. The only question that matters is whether or not a]Matthews at age 31 is still elite and b]whether teams around the league who desperately want an elite 1C will be willing to outbid everyone else (ie. pay him more than his current deal) to land him.

The other thing you have to consider: Matthews is in it for the money. If Matthews (and his agent) don't think he can get MORE on his next deal, they damn well would have taken an 8 year term on the extension. No way Matthews and his agent take a 4 year term and then take a pay CUT in 4 year's time rather than sign for 8 years so he's guaranteed $13.25 million for the next 8 years.

It’s not irrelevant, because you were asking for examples. The point is I’m not sure if there are any great examples because in the past superstar RFAs other than a handful of players like Crosby, Ovechkin, McDavid, Malkin, weren’t getting top of the league money early, and none of them did the short contract second deal Matthews did. He could probably get more if his contract expired in July but I’m not sure it’d be that much more, and again, that would be at his current age. The issue here is term over older ages. I’m really not sure if a team he’d be willing to go to would go over his current AAV for 7-8 years today if he was already 31. Where the cap is in 5 years could change things though.

In terms of Matthews maximizing money, even if he assumes he’d be getting a lower AAV at 31, it would still be in the interest of maximizing his money because it’s more likely he’d get paid more on the back half of an 8 year deal he signs at 31 than if he were to sign a 4 year deal at 35. As you alluded to, signing at 35 is more hindered than 31. For example, signing for 4x13.25 then 8x12.5, is still higher (153 mil) than signing 8x13.25 then 4x10(146 mil). Also, if we’re assuming he’s only maximizing money, then why are we assuming he can get more currently?

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

It’s not irrelevant, because you were asking for examples. The point is I’m not sure if there are any great examples because in the past superstar RFAs other than a handful of players like Crosby, Ovechkin, McDavid, Malkin, weren’t getting top of the league money early, and none of them did the short contract second deal Matthews did. He could probably get more if his contract expired in July but I’m not sure it’d be that much more, and again, that would be at his current age. The issue here is term over older ages. I’m really not sure if a team he’d be willing to go to would go over his current AAV for 7-8 years today if he was already 31. Where the cap is in 5 years could change things though.

In terms of Matthews maximizing money, even if he assumes he’d be getting a lower AAV at 31, it would still be in the interest of maximizing his money because it’s more likely he’d get paid more on the back half of an 8 year deal he signs at 31 than if he were to sign a 4 year deal at 35. As you alluded to, signing at 35 is more hindered than 31. For example, signing for 4x13.25 then 8x12.5, is still higher (153 mil) than signing 8x13.25 then 4x10(146 mil). Also, if we’re assuming he’s only maximizing money, then why are we assuming he can get more currently?

I think you're mixing up two different points I've touched on in this discussion. The quote of mine that you're responding to was about whether or not Matthews will want more on his next contract than he's getting on his extension. Yes, I mention him maximizing, but the main important discussion point was whether he'd be making less than $13.25 million on his next contract.

Do you honestly believe that Matthews is going to get less AAV on his next deal at age 31? And if so, what's the precedent for it? Because even recent signings (Tom Wilson, even using Nicklas Backstrom) saw 30+ players make MORE on their extensions than they were on their prior deals because they were still playing at a level similar to their peak. I'd argue the only examples of players making less would be players whose careers had already gone into a noticeable decline.

 

[dirtydanglez]

he took toronto to the cleaners but what where the leafs gonna do.

 

[Sypher04]

But, at just 4 years it isn't really fair value for the Leafs either considering in 4 more years they're looking at ~18M+ to keep him again. But Matthews was also totally unwilling to sign beyond 4 years so....

I get your point, but there’s no chance it goes up to anything even close $18M+. Even if the cap went up $20M over the next 4 years, at around 16% cap hit, that’d be a $3.2M increase to about $16.5M. Far far more likely however that the cap only grows closer to half that amount over that time, maybe around $12M, which would make his comparable raise only $1.92M and probably land his next deal closer to the $15M mark. And if he wants the 8 years retirement deal at that point as people speculate then the salary will trail in those post 35/36 years, so one should expect it wouldn’t even get him to the $15M as a result.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Fair value. I'm sure Leaf fans would've liked him for less but this is right in line.

 

[Stamkos4life]

Fair value. I'm sure Leaf fans would've liked him for less but this is right in line.

Curious, right in line with what?

Mack just signed for 12.6 x 8.

Pasta signed for 11.25 x 8.

13.25 x 4 seems quite out of line compared to the conparables.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Curious, right in line with what?

Mack just signed for 12.6 x 8.

Pasta signed for 11.25 x 8.

13.25 x 4 seems quite out of line compared to the conparables.

Mackinnon signed last year. Matthews leapfrogs him by a little with the cap going up. Totally in line with what we’d expect.

Pasta is the anomaly.

 

[Divine]

It doesn't matter what McDavid does. He signed a max term contract and is far better than Matthews.

Mackinnon is better than Matthews. By a large margin as well.

Neither of these are the point. You can't add 2 contracts, do an average of the cap hits and say that is his cap hit over 9 years. It doesn't work that way. You're wrong and your logic is so bad.

It does work that way, you just don't understand it. The Leafs were paying a lower cap hit for the first 5 years of Matthews deal, and higher for the following 3 until McDavid (likely) re-signs for even more on a longer term. Yes, overall the cap hit on the first term was lower and is higher on the next term. Combined, McDavid took a higher percentage (and overall AAV) on his cap hit for his first 8 years than Matthews would on his first 8, or even 9 for that matter.

Mackinnon has not won any individual awards, unlike Matthews, McDavid and even Draisaitl. The best argument you can make for Mackinnon is his team is better. Mackinnon is not the best player on his team.

 

[Haatley]

It does work that way, you just don't understand it. The Leafs were paying a lower cap hit for the first 5 years of Matthews deal, and higher for the following 3 until McDavid (likely) re-signs for even more on a longer term. Yes, overall the cap hit on the first term was lower and is higher on the next term. Combined, McDavid took a higher percentage (and overall AAV) on his cap hit for his first 8 years than Matthews would on his first 8, or even 9 for that matter.

Mackinnon has not won any individual awards, unlike Matthews, McDavid and even Draisaitl. The best argument you can make for Mackinnon is his team is better. Mackinnon is not the best player on his team.

Okay. So Mackinnon signed for 15 years at 9.66 million average by your logic.

You don't need to win individual awards. Hes always right there in the top of points per game rankings.

I think Mack is the best player on his team. I'm not convinced Matthews is. Marner is better defensively and offensively. Matthews was 3rd on his team in regular season and playoff scoring last year.

Mackinnon played less games than Matthews last year. He scores 2 more goals and had 26 more points.

You have no argument.

 

[The90]

Mackinnon signed last year. Matthews leapfrogs him by a little with the cap going up. Totally in line with what we’d expect.

Pasta is the anomaly.

Some fans like to criticize any and every move. Just need something to whine about.

 

[Divine]

Okay. So Mackinnon signed for 15 years at 9.66 million average by your logic.

You don't need to win individual awards. Hes always right there in the top of points per game rankings.

I think Mack is the best player on his team. I'm not convinced Matthews is. Marner is better defensively and offensively. Matthews was 3rd on his team in regular season and playoff scoring last year.

Mackinnon played less games than Matthews last year. He scores 2 more goals and had 26 more points.

You have no argument.

MacKinnon was a 60 point player when he signed his last contract. Matthews outscored his career high at that point in his rookie season.

When was Mackinnon voted best player in the league by his fellow players?

You & I can debate all we want. The fact is both the voters and players voted Matthews as better, as well as him being the best goalscorer in the NHL for multiple seasons. That raises his cost.

Makar has also been voted best defensemen in the league. MacKinnon has never been voted the best by his peers or the voters.

Mackinnon being way better because you liked the fact he finished 3rd on his team in scoring on a Cup winning team is your opinion, not mine.

If MacKinnon won a Rocket, Hart, and Ted Lindsay in his career I would bet his price would be higher.

Matthews, Draisaitl, and McDavid have all won all of those awards. Mackinnon has not won one of them.

But he did look cute holding the Cup beside Makar's Conn Smythe & Norris - I'll give you that.

 

[Haatley]

MacKinnon was a 60 point player when he signed his last contract. Matthews outscored his career high at that point in his rookie season.

When was Mackinnon voted best player in the league by his fellow players?

You & I can debate all we want. The fact is both the voters and players voted Matthews as better, as well as him being the best goalscorer in the NHL for multiple seasons. That raises his cost.

Makar has also been voted best defensemen in the league. MacKinnon has never been voted the best by his peers or the voters.

Mackinnon being way better because you liked the fact he finished 3rd on his team in scoring on a Cup winning team is your opinion, not mine.

If MacKinnon won a Rocket, Hart, and Ted Lindsay in his career I would bet his price would be higher.

Matthews, Draisaitl, and McDavid have all won all of those awards. Mackinnon has not won one of them.

But he did look cute holding the Cup beside Makar's Conn Smythe & Norris - I'll give you that.

Matthews had a better season. That doesn't make him a better player. Especially since Mackinnon routinely outperforms him in the regular season. Including last year. By a large margin.

 

[Divine]

Matthews had a better season. That doesn't make him a better player. Especially since Mackinnon routinely outperforms him in the regular season. Including last year. By a large margin.

MacKinnon does not routinely outperform him in the regular season. Matthews stats are much better, even though Matthews is 2 years younger.

Matthews has also lead the entire NHL in goalscoring. MacKinnon has never led the NHL in anything.

I agree MacKinnon was better than Matthews last year, but Matthews was better the 2 years prior. The idea that MacKinnon is a way better player is crazy to me considering it took MacKinnon 5 years to outscore Matthews rookie season and then he's been outscored by Matthews 2 of the last 3 seasons - as well as Matthews being voted as the best player in the NHL by both the players and voters just a year ago whereas MacKinnon was never close.

 

[Regal]

MacKinnon does not routinely outperform him in the regular season. Matthews stats are much better, even though Matthews is 2 years younger.

Matthews has also lead the entire NHL in goalscoring. MacKinnon has never led the NHL in anything.

I agree MacKinnon was better than Matthews last year, but Matthews was better the 2 years prior. The idea that MacKinnon is a way better player is crazy to me considering it took MacKinnon 5 years to outscore Matthews rookie season and then he's been outscored by Matthews 2 of the last 3 seasons - as well as Matthews being voted as the best player in the NHL by both the players and voters just a year ago whereas MacKinnon was never close.

Uh, he’s been a finalist for the Lindsay twice and runner up for the Hart twice (once in an extremely close vote)

 

[Divine]

Uh, he’s been a finalist for the Lindsay twice and runner up for the Hart twice (once in an extremely close vote)

Okay, I will concede he almost won the Hart one time.. while Matthews 'almost' won the Rocket basically every season.

Still, the best individual award MacK has is the Calder... or maybe hs most recent Lady Byng?

 

[Regal]

Okay, I will concede he almost won the Hart one time.. while Matthews 'almost' won the Rocket basically every season.

Still, the best individual award MacK has is the Calder... or maybe hs most recent Lady Byng?

Lol. Dude was 20 goals back last year. He’s won or been close 4 time. MacKinnon has been a Hart finalist 3 times. Matthews is great but you’re delusional if you think there’s some gap there

 

[Divine]

Lol. Dude was 20 goals back last year. He’s won or been close 4 time. MacKinnon has been a Hart finalist 3 times. Matthews is great but you’re delusional if you think there’s some gap there

We're in agreement then, what's the debate?

I said they're similar - the other poster said MacKinnon is clearly better than Matthews.

You're saying it's dilusional to think there's a gap, therefore I think we're arguing the same thing here and you're quoting the wrong poster.

All I said was it's hard to say MacK is clearly better (and it's not close) while Matthews holds all the accolades that aren't a direct result of team success and MacK has none.

 

[Haatley]

MacKinnon does not routinely outperform him in the regular season. Matthews stats are much better, even though Matthews is 2 years younger.

Matthews has also lead the entire NHL in goalscoring. MacKinnon has never led the NHL in anything.

I agree MacKinnon was better than Matthews last year, but Matthews was better the 2 years prior. The idea that MacKinnon is a way better player is crazy to me considering it took MacKinnon 5 years to outscore Matthews rookie season and then he's been outscored by Matthews 2 of the last 3 seasons - as well as Matthews being voted as the best player in the NHL by both the players and voters just a year ago whereas MacKinnon was never close.

Matthews had one season where he outperformed Mack. Literally Mack has a better PPG in 6 of 7 seasons.

Also you can't compare rookie seasons as scoring is up vs where it was when Mackinnon was a rookie.

Stop talking about awards. Awards aren't the be all and end all of discussion. In the last 5 years, Mackinnon has played less games, has more points, more even strength points, more powerplay points.

Their PPG last.season, the most recent and current comparison, MacKinnon has 1.56 points per game to Matthews 1.14.

Keep pretending they're close though. Homer.

 

[PainForShane]

Okay, I will concede he almost won the Hart one time.. while Matthews 'almost' won the Rocket basically every season.

Still, the best individual award MacK has is the Calder... or maybe hs most recent Lady Byng?

No one cares what you concede.

MacK finished top 5 in Hart voting 4 different times, and #6 a different time. Meaning that in 5 of the last 6 years (ie basically every season) he was one of the 5 or 6 most valuable players in the reg season, 3 of those seasons he was a Hart finalist, twice runnerup. And he consistently raises his game in the playoffs.

Matthews finished top 5 in Hart voting twice during the last six years (top 2 both times, one win), and obviously he has not consistently raised his game in the playoffs. Obviously a good player, but most ppl would take MacK over him.

***

Anyway with regard to a gap, most will say MacK has a created a gap above Matthews during the reg season. And then there's the playoffs where there's a quite a large gap in both individual and team performance.

Either way you're slipping Divine. 60% of the ppl in this thread think this Matthews extension is an overpay. Poll closes in about 12 hours, that's all the time left to make all of your bad faith posts to try to convince everyone to change their minds. You're the best hope left for Auston Matthews and time is running out! Good luck

 

[Stamkos4life]

Mackinnon signed last year. Matthews leapfrogs him by a little with the cap going up. Totally in line with what we’d expect.

Pasta is the anomaly.

Mack topped the previous highest contract by 100k after winning a cup and he signed for 8 years.

Matthews topped mack by 725k after an 85 point season and 1 series win and signed for 4 years.

It seems like you aren't taking into account term or success / production.

Matthews contract is not in line with any comparable.

 

[Divine]

No one cares what you concede.

MacK finished top 5 in Hart voting 4 different times, and #6 a different time. Meaning that in 5 of the last 6 years (ie basically every season) he was one of the 5 or 6 most valuable players in the reg season, 3 of those seasons he was a Hart finalist, twice runnerup. And he consistently raises his game in the playoffs.

Matthews finished top 5 in Hart voting twice during the last six years (top 2 both times, one win), and obviously he has not consistently raised his game in the playoffs. Obviously a good player, but most ppl would take MacK over him.

***

Anyway with regard to a gap, most will say MacK has a created a gap above Matthews during the reg season. And then there's the playoffs where there's a quite a large gap in both individual and team performance.

Either way you're slipping Divine. 60% of the ppl in this thread think this Matthews extension is an overpay. Poll closes in about 12 hours, that's all the time left to make all of your bad faith posts to try to convince everyone to change their minds. You're the best hope left for Auston Matthews and time is running out! Good luck

You seem to because you're responding to it.

If it's an overpay, the Leafs fans should be glad it's only for 4 years. People are saying it's an overpay for 4 years but fair value for 8, it makes no sense.

Mack vs Matthews is a completely different argument though. Career wise, Matthews has a better PPG, is clearly a much better goalscorer than Mack and is younger.

 

[PainForShane]

You seem to because you're responding to it.

If it's an overpay, the Leafs fans should be glad it's only for 4 years. People are saying it's an overpay for 4 years but fair value for 8, it makes no sense.

Mack vs Matthews is a completely different argument though. Career wise, Matthews has a better PPG, is clearly a much better goalscorer than Mack and is younger.

Well... over half the ppl think it's an overpay (60.4%).

This opinion has a lot to do with playoff performance (both individual and team), the contract's relative value compared to every other player in the league, as well as the fact that the contract will likely not become a bargain in its later years given how short it is (unlike almost every other superstars' long term deals). These arguments are straightforward and do not need to be further explained.

Anyway, good luck convincing everyone else that your take is smarter / better than theirs, I think it will be relatively difficult but that is just my opinion

 

[TS Quint]

You seem to because you're responding to it.

If it's an overpay, the Leafs fans should be glad it's only for 4 years. People are saying it's an overpay for 4 years but fair value for 8, it makes no sense.

Mack vs Matthews is a completely different argument though. Career wise, Matthews has a better PPG, is clearly a much better goalscorer than Mack and is younger.

Because the Leafs are paying the same Cap % on his next contract. The only difference is that contract will be 8 years.