Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion

[SniperOnTheWing]

Why you guys fighting over Marner lol.

Who cares what he gets. Won't be hard creating a contender when your top 6 is Matthews/Nylander(non-lockout version) and JT/Marner.

Parity is hugeeeeee for bottom 6 players now. You'll always be able to find warriors making < 1-2 mil to go up against other teams bottom 6 players, especially if you draft smart.

Do any of us really know half of Boston's team? Clifton, some grizzly dude, acciari, that guy who made Polak look useless last year, kuraly, wagner, nordstrom etc.

When Caps won the cup their bottom 6 made what, 9 mil combined?

Pay your stars and move on. Colorado almost made the conference finals being a one line superstar team. Rantanen is about to get the same 9-10 mil as Marner.

You guys are overrating this whole 40 mil combined across 4 players. When those 4 players are AM/JT/Marner/Nylander you shouldn't lose any sleep.

Up to the suits to make sure the bottom 6 is full of 1 mil hustlers that can skate and sometimes force us to have to trade them because they end up being worth 3+ mil.


The real contracts bringing this team down are Marleau and Zaitsev. I like Zaitsev but not for 4 mil. Marleau and Zaitsev's salaries can get you Boston's entire bottom 6.

Amen brother, amen. Couldn't have said it better. Way too many Leaf fans don't realize how good we have it.

Aside from maybe the Sharks you won't find many teams with a relevant bottom six. Overpower teams with a potent top six (assuming your coach gives them the appropriate minutes - that's a whole other debate) and plug the holes with cheap, hungry players who want to make a name for themselves.

People keep looking at ''team friendly'' deals like the Boston trio and thinking we failed if we don't get our guys for that cheap. The fact is the Bruins got lucky and signed those guys before they exploded.

Marchand was a 40-50pt guy forever, hell even Nylander outproduced Marchand's ELC years by a good margin. Marchand didn't match Nylander's 61pt rookie year total until his 7TH SEASON IN THE LEAGUE. And people in here are writing off Nylander at 22yrs old as if he's done improving. Lol.

Players are better at younger ages nowadays, which means they also get paid bigger money sooner. It's time to learn to live with that new reality.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Your conclusion lacks context. The guys on Boston were all fairly paid for their production at the time.

Bingo.

Marchand signed his extension in September of 2016. Coming off a career high 61 points in his 6th NHL season. Before that he never topped 55. He then went on to put up 85, 85, and 100 and Boston reaped the rewards of that one.

Bergeron signed his after a lockout shortened season in July 2013. It had been 6 years since he topped 70 points and 7 years since he scored 30 goals and he looked to be trending down towards a 20 goal/50 point player. Since he signed he's topped 30 goals and 60 points 4 times each.

Pastrnak was coming off a 34 goal, 70 point season but his previous two years he had 26 points and 27 points. He took the long term security of the deal over betting on himself to repeat that single years performance.

I dont know why this is so hard to understand lol.

It's shocking how little people take into consideration ice time, 5v5 and PP when comparing contracts. People will be eternally confused about why players sign for what they do until they do so. Here are some comparables I've seen discussed on these boards to see what Mitch should make v.s. whether or not our kids are overpaid or not. tbh, I don't see any team discounts here at all when you stack them up against each other:

	Marchand	Bergeron	Nylander	Kane	Marner	Eichel	Matthews	Malkin	Ovechkin
Contract	13-14: 4x7.1%	11-12: 3x7.78%	18-19: 6x8.8%	10-11: 5x10.6%	19-20: ?	18-19: 8x12.8%	19-20: 5x14.01%	09-10: 5x15.32%	08-09: 13x16.82%
Production prior	Age 21-13	Age 21-23	Age 19-21	Age 19-21	Age 19-21	Age 19-20	Age 19-21	Age 21-22	Age 20-22
5v5 g/60	0.91	0.62	0.63	0.74	0.83	0.8	1.56	0.95	1.49
5v5 p/60	1.98	1.81	2.1	2.22	2.36	1.63	2.61	2.8	2.88
PP g/60	1.97	0.41	2.14	1.87	1.52	2.49	2.97	2.13	2.59
PP p/60	2.59	3.5	5.95	5.98	7.05	6.29	6.39	5.54	5.68

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Note that all these players play for teams that are not "tax havens". Edmonton, Calgary and Tampa Bay are considered tax haven locations. Based on the production of these players that posters here have mentioned, I would describe Nylander, Marner and Matthews as:

Nylander: Bergeron should represent a floor salary, Kane should represent a ceiling/close comparable -- check! Nylander looks quite fair from this group, given how he is only 13% more than Bergeron and 17% less than Kane.

Matthews: Eichel should be a floor, Ovechkin should be a ceiling. Malkin represents a close comparable -- check! Matthews got 8-9% less than Malkin.

Marner: Based on the same production here, and judging how you rate center v.s. winger, I'd say Kane should be considered a floor for his contract (5x$8.8m), and Eichel as a ceiling given he's a center. But again it's tough to guage how much that will be taken into consideration.

 

[Mess]

But again if everyone knows that a player is going to produce more the next season because of who they will be playing with, then after said season everyone should still take that into consideration and understand that they shouldn't be paying for the inflated production.

If, for instance, someone is a 100 point player with Marchand and Bergeron, but a 60 or 70 point player without then it would be dumb to pay him like he is a 100 point player.

Marner without Tavares as his centre = 69 points
&
Marner with Tavares as his centre = 94 points

If the Leafs pay Marner like a 100 point player, are you saying that is a mistake?

Marner's next contract will be based on playing with an elite #1C who is cable of scoring 50 goals.

 

[diceman934]

Marner without Tavares as his centre = 69 points
&
Marner with Tavares as his centre = 94 points

If the Leafs pay Marner like a 100 point player, are you saying that is a mistake?

Marner's next contract will be based on playing with an elite #1C who is cable of scoring 50 goals.

Except that it is all false. Marner player with Kadri for 35 games and produced the same points pace before playing with Tavares. He had more points then Tavares so who help who achieve more production. Tavares has more goals then assists for the first time in his career as he was the person who was feed the puck and not the player driving production on the line.

 

[MLSE]

If you average out Marners minutes last year to what he got this year, you're looking at 83 points.

Even more so if you recall Babcock doghoused Marner early, if you averaged out his last 68 games to the minutes he got this year and put it over 82 games your looking at 90 points.

All without Tavares...

 

[Mess]

Except that it is all false. Marner player with Kadri for 35 games and produced the same points pace before playing with Tavares. He had more points then Tavares so who help who achieve more production. Tavares has more goals then assists for the first time in his career as he was the person who was feed the puck and not the player driving production on the line.

Those are his actual stats, how can they be false?

Before JT arrived Marner with Bozak/Kadri was a 69 point player, and with JT scoring 47 goals Marner became a 94 point player, of which 30-35 primary assists/points came directly from JT goals. The +25 points improvement on his personal best was due to his #1C.

Had the Leafs signed Marner last summer than they would have done it based on 69 points and future potential, now with JT that potential has been realized by improving his linemates. Had Marner played all year with Marleau and Kadri do you still think he would have produced the same?

Nobody would argue that he made Tavares a better more productive player, as JT would have less goals if he didn't play with Marner. However a playmaker relies on a goal scorer to get his points.. If the goal scorer isn't a finisher than nobody gets points, if no goal is scored.

 

[MLSE]

Those are his actual stats, how can they be false?

Before JT arrived Marner with Bozak/Kadri was a 69 point player, and with JT scoring 47 goals Marner became a 94 point player, of which 30-35 assists/points came directly from JT goals. The +25 points improvement on his personal best was due to his #1C.

Had the Leafs signed Marner last summer than they would have done it based on 69 points and future potential, now with JT that potential has been realized by improving his linemates. Had Marner played all year with Marleau and Kadri do you still think he would have produced the same?

Nobody would argue that he made Tavares a better more productive player, as JT would have less goals if he didn't play with Marner. However a playmaker relies on a goal scorer to get his points.. If the goal scorer isn't a finisher than nobody gets points, if no goal is scored.

One post above.. Marner was a 90 point player over his previous 70ish games if you take into consideration 19+ minutes compared to 16ish minutes.

Also, what about natural progression? Im not saying Tavares isn't a good help but to consider Marner some 69 point player and not much more because he put up 69 in his sophomore season while being in the doghouse early and on 16 minutes a game is quite the injustice.

 

[diceman934]

Those are his actual stats, how can they be false?

Before JT arrived Marner with Bozak/Kadri was a 69 point player, and with JT scoring 47 goals Marner became a 94 point player, of which 30-35 primary assists/points came directly from JT goals. The +25 points improvement on his personal best was due to his #1C.

Had the Leafs signed Marner last summer than they would have done it based on 69 points and future potential, now with JT that potential has been realized by improving his linemates. Had Marner played all year with Marleau and Kadri do you still think he would have produced the same?

Nobody would argue that he made Tavares a better more productive player, as JT would have less goals if he didn't play with Marner. However a playmaker relies on a goal scorer to get his points.. If the goal scorer isn't a finisher than nobody gets points, if no goal is scored.

Lol. Yeah let’s just ignore his points production playing with Kadri, for almost half a season and not playing on the 4th line or with Bozak. He finished the year with 69 points followed that up with a great playoffs and continued it with JT as his center. If the Leafs had signed him last summer it would have been based on what they saw in the last half of the season and carried the team in the playoffs. Babcock started to play him the minutes you play your best player down the stretch and into the playoffs. His production took off.

All that happened this year was that it continued.

 

[Fakejake51]

Lol. Yeah let’s just ignore his points production playing with Kadri, for almost half a season and not playing on the 4th line or with Bozak. He finished the year with 69 points followed that up with a great playoffs and continued it with JT as his center. If the Leafs had signed him last summer it would have been based on what they saw in the last half of the season and carried the team in the playoffs. Babcock started to play him the minutes you play your best player down the stretch and into the playoffs. His production took off.

All that happened this year was that it continued.

You’re just reiterating what Mess said. Tavares made his numbers go where Kadri or Bozak couldn’t. It was all Tavares. The playoffs proved the point. Once Bergeron took away Tavares, Marner became invisible.

 

[Notsince67]

You’re just reiterating what Mess said. Tavares made his numbers go where Kadri or Bozak couldn’t. It was all Tavares. The playoffs proved the point. Once Bergeron took away Tavares, Marner became invisible.

Yeah. Marner was over 90 points over 82 consecutive regular season games on Dec 1 because he played with Tavares for 2 months.
I understand now.

 

[MLSE]

You’re just reiterating what Mess said. Tavares made his numbers go where Kadri or Bozak couldn’t. It was all Tavares. The playoffs proved the point. Once Bergeron took away Tavares, Marner became invisible.

You're really not proving anything:

Marner last 68 games in 2017-18: 3.39 p/60

Marner 2018-19 season : 3.4 p/60

Don't gloss over that stat but I also want to mention Marner had 9 points in 7 games the previous playoffs.

"It was all Tavares" is quite a blind thing to say.

 

[KuleminFan41]

Yeah. Marner was over 90 points over 82 consecutive regular season games on Dec 1 because he played with Tavares for 2 months.
I understand now.

There's litereally no reason to be so defensive here. I'm by no means suggesting Marner isn't good or is being dragged around by Tavares. There's nothing wrong with the notion that both players elevate eachother, because that's clearly what happened. You can't ignore the fact that Marner's numbers jumped from 69 points to 94 while playing with Tavares, that's 25 point increase. To suggest he'd have put up those exact same numbers playing with Bozak or Kadri, would be kind of ridiculous. Who would have thought, playing with an elite centre who could score over 30 goals a season(with a mediocre team) would increase your assist and overall point totals? They needed eachother , there's nothing wrong with saying that, you don't have to pick one player over the other, they play on the same team

 

[MLSE]

There's litereally no reason to be so defensive here. I'm by no means suggesting Marner isn't good or is being dragged around by Tavares. There's nothing wrong with the notion that both players elevate eachother, because that's clearly what happened. You can't ignore the fact that Marner's numbers jumped from 69 points to 94 while playing with Tavares, that's 25 point increase. To suggest he'd have put up those exact same numbers playing with Bozak or Kadri, would be kind of ridiculous. Who would have thought, playing with an elite centre who could score over 30 goals a season(with a mediocre team) would increase your assist and overall point totals? They needed eachother , there's nothing wrong with saying that, you don't have to pick one player over the other, they play on the same team

I agree they are both good but I'll just quote myself..

After getting out of the doghouse if you averaged out his last 68 games to the minutes he got this year and put it over 82 games your looking at 90 points.

His p/60 this year compared to a 75 game stretch (68 games + playoffs) is identical (slightly favors the 75 game stretch)

Is a 75 game stretch prior to Tavares not enough for people?

 

[Fakejake51]

You're really not proving anything:

Marner last 68 games in 2017-18: 3.39 p/60

Marner 2018-19 season : 3.4 p/60

Don't gloss over that stat but I also want to mention Marner had 9 points in 7 games the previous playoffs.

"It was all Tavares" is quite a blind thing to say.

And all that means is Boston didn’t see anyone Marner could pass to as a threat the year prior. This year was different. Bergeron played to shut down Tavares and it worked. Tavares was a huge threat. Take him out and you win.

 

[Notsince67]

There's litereally no reason to be so defensive here. I'm by no means suggesting Marner isn't good or is being dragged around by Tavares. There's nothing wrong with the notion that both players elevate eachother, because that's clearly what happened. You can't ignore the fact that Marner's numbers jumped from 69 points to 94 while playing with Tavares, that's 25 point increase. To suggest he'd have put up those exact same numbers playing with Bozak or Kadri, would be kind of ridiculous. Who would have thought, playing with an elite centre who could score over 30 goals a season(with a mediocre team) would increase your assist and overall point totals? They needed eachother , there's nothing wrong with saying that, you don't have to pick one player over the other, they play on the same team

I repeat...he hit the 90 point threshold by dec 1. Twisting the facts to make Marner look like he instantly got good because of JT is ignoring the facts.

 

[Notsince67]

And all that means is Boston didn’t see anyone Marner could pass to as a threat the year prior. This year was different. Bergeron played to shut down Tavares and it worked. Tavares was a huge threat. Take him out and you win.

Babcock must have been helping considering a the defensive zone starts of that line.

 

[Fakejake51]

Babcock must have been helping considering a the defensive zone starts of that line.

Of course. Only make sense because JT is the only one who could play against that line and he couldn’t do it by himself with Hyman injured and not one player capable of stepping in. The over rating of Marner misses how bad he is without the puck.

 

[MLSE]

And all that means is Boston didn’t see anyone Marner could pass to as a threat the year prior. This year was different. Bergeron played to shut down Tavares and it worked. Tavares was a huge threat. Take him out and you win.

Thats all that means? That's such a weak counter argument on how good Marner was and has been for about 150 regular seasons games.

Did people gloss over him the year before this year when he put up p/60 numbers identical to this year for 75 games, including 68 regular season games.

You can't forget that other stuff typed out just to pretend Marner wasnt a beast for 150 games, almost 70 of them without Tavares.

You seem to have a thought and just will do anything to make sure you feel correct.

Marner is awesome with or without Tavares, sorry.

 

[Notsince67]

Of course. Only make sense because JT is the only one who could play against that line and he couldn’t do it by himself with Hyman injured and not one player capable of stepping in. The over rating of Marner misses how bad he is without the puck.

Minus mitch?

 

[Fakejake51]

Thats all that means? That's such a weak counter argument on how good Marner was and has been for about 150 regular seasons games.

Did people gloss over him the year before this year when he put up p/60 numbers identical to this year for 75 games, including 68 regular season games.

You can forget that other stuff typed out just to pretend Marner wasnt a beast for 150 games, almost 70 of them without Tavares.

Yeah great he’s an October Warrior. Need him to not go 3 playoff games in a row with only 1 shot on goal. Three games, one shot!!! When it matters most. This is a line driver? Gimme a break.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Of course. Only make sense because JT is the only one who could play against that line and he couldn’t do it by himself with Hyman injured and not one player capable of stepping in. The over rating of Marner misses how bad he is without the puck.

Don't be ridiculous in defending your opinion, if you're looking for a discussion, seriously.

 

[Fakejake51]

Minus mitch?

Should make that highly overrated Mitch.

 

[Fakejake51]

Don't be ridiculous in defending your opinion, if you're looking for a discussion, seriously.

I know the youngsters don’t like the truth but pay attention.

 

[Mr Hockey]

I know the youngsters don’t like the truth but pay attention.

Bud, I think Mitch is one of the top 10 players in the league on takeaways

 

[Fakejake51]

Bud, I think Mitch is one of the top 10 players in the league on takeaways

Great stick I agree. But that’s it without the puck. And in playoff hockey it’s not enough.