Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVI (continued)

[Throw More Waffles]

Crazy that we never realized that Lindholm was better than Matthews

Gf% is good in terms of winning games, but pretty awful in terms of evaluating players

Of course...

Every advanced stat that doesn't prove that "leaf players are THE BEST!!!" isn't important.

If Lindholm was a leaf and up for contract, that stat would be CLUNG to in order to rationalize overpaying him.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

you can forget it if you want.

Dubas and I won't though.

Simply stating that you understand the methods Dubas is using to dramatically overpay his players isn't actually much of an argument.

 

[thewave]

And we are paying out the ass for it too!

Look at the god damn scoring picture this year, EVERYBODY is having career years. Johnathon Toews had his first ever PPG year but it was only good enough for 27th in league scoring. You got a guy like Zibanejad with his previous career high 51 points putting up 30 goals and 74 points out of nowhere. The league hasn't had a 120 point scorer on how long and then all of a sudden we got 2, hell Kucherov almost got 130 FFS (I count McDavid cause he no doubt woulda got there without the missed games).

Drastic increase in scoring, everybody and their dog is putting up numbers in a tier above what they produced before, and now all of a sudden we need to pay Mitch Marner mega dollars for his career year PLUS we provided him with a franchise center who made a career out of elevating winger's production.

Craziness.

I know, a few of us were on to it, but, seems some GMs were asleep at the wheel and didn't factor it in before cutting checks. Now we are here. If you adjusted Nylander, he regressed before awarded contract. Marner in year two (when changes were made) went up in step perfectly with peers. You could say he was peaked, no improvement. Last season he went up in step again BUT had a kicker from JT of maybe 5% production.

Oh well, whatever, I guess hockey GMs arent very smart with the ways of the monies?? Or something.

Looks like NSH and Tampa just said Nah no way and paid fair.

 

[zeke]

What I’m the world?

Which scorer helped their team more? The 70 point scorer? Or the 120 point scorer?

It’s not “obsolete” to claim that actual REAL points matter. THEY’RE the ones that go on the score board and determine wins from losses.

It's up to you if you want to base your player evaluations on a century old stat with no context.

Our GM doesn't, though, and I, for one, am very happy about it.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Of course...

Every advanced stat that doesn't prove that "leaf players are THE BEST!!!" isn't important.

If Lindholm was a leaf and up for contract, that stat would be CLUNG to in order to rationalize overpaying him.

Goal differential isn't an advanced stat. It's also not a good stat

 

[zeke]

They made the playoffs the second last game of the season, Montreal played their AHL team against the leafs for draft lottery purposes. All those points were accumulated early in the season, the last half was a disaster.

7th in points, 4th in row, 4th in gdiff, and they've improved the roster significantly.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

It's up to you if you want to base your player evaluations on a century old stat with no context.

Our GM doesn't, though, and I, for one, am very happy about it.

So wait...

You're saying, when it comes to actual wins and losses, the player with 70 points helped his team just as much as the player with 110 points, so long as they have similar stats otherwise?

 

[ajp4to]

If you cannot see why a team with questionable defensive depth having Gardiner, Dermott, Rosen and Borgman all injured at the same time is a significant problem then I'm afraid no one can help you.

yes because no other teams had bad luck with injuries on defense: Boston's McAvoy out 28 games, Moore out 22 games, Chara out 21 games, Krug out 18 games. Those poor leafs so unfortunate!

 

[zeke]

Simply stating that you understand the methods Dubas is using to dramatically overpay his players isn't actually much of an argument.

I mean, it's a much better argument than "BUT POINTZ", for me at least.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I mean, it's a much better argument than "BUT POINTZ", for me at least.

Wait a second...

You do know that actual wins and losses are based on REAL goals that go in the net, and not 5v5 projections, right?

Ovechkin gets 4 powerplay points leading his team to victory, but then Matthews says "Yeah, well, my 5v5 stats were better this game".

No matter how you argue, the 2 points go to Washington that game.

 

[thewave]

I mean, it's a much better argument than "BUT POINTZ", for me at least.

Zeke the problem with the way you come to conclusions or justify things is that you use 1000 different metrics with 999,999 possible ways to slice it and then just say, here see! This is why, there are problems, remember when you said Marincin is the end all and be all? Then you watch him and his stats don't tell the story. It's like that with a lot of statistically good players. You could have probably found an argument for Clarkson being a good pickup if you spent the time.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Wait a second...

You do know that actual wins and losses are based on REAL goals that go in the net, and not 5v5 projections, right?

Ovechkin gets 4 powerplay points leading his team to victory, but then Matthews says "Yeah, well, my 5v5 stats were better this game".

No matter how you argue, the 2 points go to Washington that game.

you must be mystified how Tampa, Chicago and Edmonton combined for 0 playoff wins despite having the four top scorers in the league

 

[zeke]

So wait...

You're saying, when it comes to actual wins and losses, the player with 70 points helped his team just as much as the player with 110 points, so long as they have similar stats otherwise?

you'll have to give some real examples to work with.

 

[zeke]

Wait a second...

You do know that actual wins and losses are based on REAL goals that go in the net, and not 5v5 projections, right?

Ovechkin gets 4 powerplay points leading his team to victory, but then Matthews says "Yeah, well, my 5v5 stats were better this game".

No matter how you argue, the 2 points go to Washington that game.

yes, the team that wins the game wins the game. good point.

 

[ajp4to]

7th in points, 4th in row, 4th in gdiff, and they've improved the roster significantly.

And the third year in a roll to leave playoffs in the frist round. Keep overpaying under accomplishing players, and hope that's the answer. Hasn't worked for over 50 years; but ha, this might be the year...

 

[IPS]

I know, a few of us were on to it, but, seems some GMs were asleep at the wheel and didn't factor it in before cutting checks. Now we are here. If you adjusted Nylander, he regressed before awarded contract. Marner in year two (when changes were made) went up in step perfectly with peers. You could say he was peaked, no improvement. Last season he went up in step again BUT had a kicker from JT of maybe 5% production.

Oh well, whatever, I guess hockey GMs arent very smart with the ways of the monies?? Or something.

Looks like NSH and Tampa just said Nah no way and paid fair.

Another question if mine would be: is it safe to say that Don Waddell was "lowballing" Aho because he refused to pay him a number relative to the vastly increased league scoring? My guess was he was negotiating extremely hard for that $7-8M dollar range but got f***ed over by the Habs offer-sheet and had to bite. And that's the funny thing, in the standards of debate over here, $8.5 is a pretty god damn good number for Aho.

You could probably slide Carolina in as another team who refuses to pay extra for this crazy increase in league scoring. They did well for themselves on the Teravainen contract as well.

 

[Shanty]

Think of it as odds vs. the eye test. Example:

The odds (stats) say Matthews is more likely to score a goal than x Player in any given game.

But if the X player is Sidney Crosby, your "eye test" may overwrite whatever the odds may say.

Doesn't change the odds, though.

 

[Jozay]

 

[Throw More Waffles]

you must be mystified how Tampa, Chicago and Edmonton combined for 0 playoff wins despite having the four top scorers in the league

First off, the leafs haven't exactly been playoff warriors...

Regardless, there's clearly more at play than just star players. There's 20 or so other players on the team.

But what I'm suggesting isn't rocket science here.

2 players have similar stats across the boards (5v5, Corsi, etc.), except one got over 100 points the past 2 seasons, and the other got 70-ish points the past 2 seasons.

Who would you rather have? Who helped their team more?

 

[ajp4to]

Well then how about leafs offer Crosby money. But I'd rather have Crosby over Marner even at 30 over 22. Does anyone think Pit would consider it?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

yes, the team that wins the game wins the game. good point.

Oh, so you agree?
It's not projected 5v5 stats that win games? It's actual REAL points? So 110 real points is far more valuable than 70 real points, regardless of all the other nonsense?

Good to know.

There seemed to be some confusion around here.

Imagine a player with identical 5v5 stats as Matthews, except he scored 110 REAL points last year for the leafs. That would help the leafs MORE than 70 points last year. No matter how you spin it.

 

[Stephen]

Just like Matthews, right?

Yeah, obviously.

Matthews better produce too.

 

[Stephen]

Doubt it. Ferris takes orders from Paul Marner .... I mean Mitch

Looking forward to Kapanen and Johnsson Apple ads.

 

[Duffman955]

I'm not overpaying Marner for 1 year of production where everyone had career years

Bottom line, bridge

 

[ACC1224]

It's up to you if you want to base your player evaluations on a century old stat with no context.

Our GM doesn't, though, and I, for one, am very happy about it.

I doubt he's that narrow minded. He would make decisions based on everything available to him.