Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread - 2021/22 PART II

[Knies iT]

20pts in 20GP.

If Knies finishes this season PPG+ and has and standout showing at the Olympics, you have to give him a look next season in a pro league. His last 5-10 games have been comparable to Boldy's D+2.

Physically he's too mature for the NCAA and his skillset is trending that way too.

 

[Stringer Bell]

20pts in 20GP.

If Knies finishes this season PPG+ and has and standout showing at the Olympics, you have to give him a look next season in a pro league. His last 5-10 games have been comparable to Boldy's D+2.

Physically he's too mature for the NCAA and his skillset is trending that way too.

I don't agree with any of that. Another year in the NCAA is the safe and smart thing to do.

 

[Scion]

I hear you, prove it first. But the thing is, we might need to acquire a guy who can help us achieve that goal and more. So it really comes down to how bad does management want to win. And it should be a resounding damn bad they want to win.

Rentals rarely mean the difference between winning and losing a cup. Furthermore, the playoffs are a crap shoot. The smartest teams build sustainable rosters that are in the conversation every year thus increasing their odds of winning. Selling out for rentals is counter productive to that goal.

 

[francis246]

Rentals rarely mean the difference between winning and losing a cup. Furthermore, the playoffs are a crap shoot. The smartest teams build sustainable rosters that are in the conversation every year thus increasing their odds of winning. Selling out for rentals is counter productive to that goal.

again if you read my posts you'd see I make no mention of rentals, I talk about acquiring a youngish players with term and additionally I provided clear examples of how the last couple of Stanley cup championship teams spent assets to get players to get them over the hump. Tampa Bay spent 3 first round picks in 2 years and also traded their best forward prospect and in turn they got two cups. Do you think they gave two shits about the future in those moments? The answer is no, winning should be the main objective and sometimes you have to sacrifice the future to make that happen. I'm not sure what people on here want? Do you want a cup in the next 2-3 years or do you want a rebuild? Teams that meddle in between those lines never win the cup. They stay mediocre for a long time.

 

[Fogelhund]

20pts in 20GP.

If Knies finishes this season PPG+ and has and standout showing at the Olympics, you have to give him a look next season in a pro league. His last 5-10 games have been comparable to Boldy's D+2.

Physically he's too mature for the NCAA and his skillset is trending that way too.

It's primarily his decision to make, what he wants to do. Of course the Leafs will have their say, maybe make an offer, but it's his decision to turn pro or not. But, if Robertson comes back, and has a very strong second half, they might not want TWO rookie LW's on the roster.

 

[Scion]

again if you read my posts you'd see I make no mention of rentals, I talk about acquiring a youngish players with term and additionally I provided clear examples of how the last couple of Stanley cup championship teams spent assets to get players to get them over the hump. Tampa Bay spent 3 first round picks in 2 years and also traded their best forward prospect and in turn they got two cups. Do you think they gave two shits about the future in those moments? The answer is no, winning should be the main objective and sometimes you have to sacrifice the future to make that happen. I'm not sure what people on here want? Do you want a cup in the next 2-3 years or do you want a rebuild? Teams that meddle in between those lines never win the cup. They stay mediocre for a long time.

I'm all for acquiring players with term, but the Tampa Bay example is misleading because they are the exception and not the rule. The majority of teams who make significant acquisitions at the deadline are not rewarded with a Stanley Cup. Prior to Tampa who is the last team to make a sizeable trade at the deadline and win a cup? Los Angeles and Marian Gaborik is the last one I recall off the top of my head. Maybe Vermette in Chicago fits that bill too.

 

[supermann_98]

I think you trade one of Robertson/Amirov for a left winger with term this year. You have Bunting on a cheap contract. You keep Keefoot for next year and now have the left wing with term.
You’ve got your top 9 pretty much set for next year.
Player with term - Matthews - Marner
Bunting - Tavares - Nylander
Kerfoot - Kampf - ?
Anderson - ? - Simmonds

In two years times the one you didn’t trade between Robertson/Amirov hopefully can step in and maybe we keep one of the other current left wingers. Also might have Knies ready by that time too.

Cap is a big thing espcially with the uncertainty of Campbell and what he could get. To make this work we would need to probably move out Ritchie and Mrazek.

With our luck we trade the one that goes on to be Tuuka Rask of left wingers and the one we keep becomes the Justin Pogge of left wingers

 

[Twine Tickler]

With our luck we trade the one that goes on to be Tuuka Rask of left wingers and the one we keep becomes the Justin Pogge of left wingers

This was exactly my thoughts. Shipping one of Robby or Amirov at this point just feels identical to the Rask/Pogge situation.

And I totally agree with @Scion with the TB Lighting model of "going for it" being a bit misleading.

It is widely viewed as worth it because of the 2 cups they won. Even if they only won a single cup it would have been worth it. But that said, the vast majority of buyers these past 2 seasons failed miserably in their TDL acquisitions. Us included. That's not to say don't make any moves. But I certainly don't think we need to mortgage the future for this push. We got about double the amount of value from Galchenyuk than we did for Foligno last year in terms of on ice performance. Yet the costs to acquire were no where near similar. We really don't need to swing for the fences, we have a great team as is.

I can get behind what @francis246 stated with respect to using a top prospect, in this case one of Amirov/Robertson for a "youngish players with term". With term being the major thing. The only issue with that is we don't likely have to cap space to accommodate that level of transaction in the years that follow as it is extremely unlikely we'd be able to acquire a youngish player with term who instantly improves our team with 50% retention. Because lets be real, we'd likely need 50% retention at the minimum, and more than likely would need a 3rd party to broker an additional 50% on the 50%. It just doesn't seem feasible if you ask me when you are talking about a quality player who has term. No one would be eager to retain multiple years to accommodate that type of transaction IMO

for that reason alone, I think I'd much rather wait the 2 seasons and have an expectation that at the very minimum 1 of the 3 players (Knies, Amirov, Roberston) will be firmly implanted in our top 6. I think that is a relatively fair expectation. I honestly think there is a chance we could even see 2 of them in that top six by the start of the 2023-24 season.

There always seems to be an appetite to improve when you're in the spot that we are in. Additionally, keeping the status quo oddly appears like you're not trying. Which is extremely strange to me TBH. We have a top 5 team in the NHL at the current moment IMO. No matter how good of an acquisition you make at the TDL, you still will need some luck to win it all. As long as you are in the picture, you have a chance. I truly believe we can win it all with our current roster. And maybe outside of a Patrick Kane level talent coming to TOR, I really don't see how 1 extra piece is really going to drastically alter our chances from what we presently have.

I'd much rather maintain the status quo, hold our prospects, utilize their ELC cap-hits in the next 3 seasons and then make the appropriate moves thereafter. I think the gamble of expecting our top prospects to be meaningful NHL'ers in the next 2/3 seasons is way more likely than using them as pieces to acquire players that marginally improve our chances at a cup for the next 1-2 seasons. But that's just me

 

[francis246]

This was exactly my thoughts. Shipping one of Robby or Amirov at this point just feels identical to the Rask/Pogge situation.

And I totally agree with @Scion with the TB Lighting model of "going for it" being a bit misleading.

It is widely viewed as worth it because of the 2 cups they won. Even if they only won a single cup it would have been worth it. But that said, the vast majority of buyers these past 2 seasons failed miserably in their TDL acquisitions. Us included. That's not to say don't make any moves. But I certainly don't think we need to mortgage the future for this push. We got about double the amount of value from Galchenyuk than we did for Foligno last year in terms of on ice performance. Yet the costs to acquire were no where near similar. We really don't need to swing for the fences, we have a great team as is.

I can get behind what @francis246 stated with respect to using a top prospect, in this case one of Amirov/Robertson for a "youngish players with term". With term being the major thing. The only issue with that is we don't likely have to cap space to accommodate that level of transaction in the years that follow as it is extremely unlikely we'd be able to acquire a youngish player with term who instantly improves our team with 50% retention. Because lets be real, we'd likely need 50% retention at the minimum, and more than likely would need a 3rd party to broker an additional 50% on the 50%. It just doesn't seem feasible if you ask me when you are talking about a quality player who has term. No one would be eager to retain multiple years to accommodate that type of transaction IMO

for that reason alone, I think I'd much rather wait the 2 seasons and have an expectation that at the very minimum 1 of the 3 players (Knies, Amirov, Roberston) will be firmly implanted in our top 6. I think that is a relatively fair expectation. I honestly think there is a chance we could even see 2 of them in that top six by the start of the 2023-24 season.

There always seems to be an appetite to improve when you're in the spot that we are in. Additionally, keeping the status quo oddly appears like you're not trying. Which is extremely strange to me TBH. We have a top 5 team in the NHL at the current moment IMO. No matter how good of an acquisition you make at the TDL, you still will need some luck to win it all. As long as you are in the picture, you have a chance. I truly believe we can win it all with our current roster. And maybe outside of a Patrick Kane level talent coming to TOR, I really don't see how 1 extra piece is really going to drastically alter our chances from what we presently have.

I'd much rather maintain the status quo, hold our prospects, utilize their ELC cap-hits in the next 3 seasons and then make the appropriate moves thereafter. I think the gamble of expecting our top prospects to be meaningful NHL'ers in the next 2/3 seasons is way more likely than using them as pieces to acquire players that marginally improve our chances at a cup for the next 1-2 seasons. But that's just me

This is a quality reply, I appreciate you taking the time to articulate your thoughts. I see both sides, cap constraints may force us to be more patient. However I'm also one of those fans that just wants to see us win now, we have the base of a great team and I believe it's also a gamble to wait on prospects. If I'm listening to my gut, I think Amirov is the guy you trade. I just don't see him being better than Mikehyev in my opinion. I think Robertson has all the tools to be a really good player and can play a lot like a better Kerfoot. But I'm not an NHL scout so I could be completely wrong.

At the end of the day it's a gamble to wait on prospects that may never pan out. So I don't envy Dubas' position. But if I'm looking at it from Dubas' point of view as a GM. I might not be here in 2-3 years so you can't depend on those prospects to lead you to the promise land.

Additionally as fans we can't continue to be traumatized and scared because things didn't work out in the past. You don't grow that way. We need to stop equating everything to a dumb move that was made 10+ years ago, it's long gone. TBH outside of the Foligno and maybe Kessel deal, the leafs haven't lost a whole lot of deals in recent years.

 

[Fogelhund]

This was the starting goalie for Knies' Minnesota Gophers... started 20 of their 23 games... so the Gophers may struggle more going forward.

 

[LeafChief]

This was the starting goalie for Knies' Minnesota Gophers... started 20 of their 23 games... so the Gophers may struggle more going forward.

Is Carolina dealing with goalie injuries? Or were they worried he wuld walk to UFA?

Odd to see the NHL pull a player from NCAA mid season. Not something you see often. Congrats to the kid, though!

 

[francis246]

Is Carolina dealing with goalie injuries? Or were they worried he wuld walk to UFA?

Odd to see the NHL pull a player from NCAA mid season. Not something you see often. Congrats to the kid, though!

it's actually becoming a more popular move. a few NCAA players turn pro right after the world juniors. Especially if they play well or to go to the CHL instead. But you are right, often it happens at the end of the NCAA season.

 

[LeafChief]

it's actually becoming a more popular move. a few NCAA players turn pro right after the world juniors. Especially if they play well or to go to the CHL instead. But you are right, often it happens at the end of the NCAA season.

You're probably right. I guess I just haven't noticed. Do you have any examples?

 

[Fogelhund]

Is Carolina dealing with goalie injuries? Or were they worried he wuld walk to UFA?

Odd to see the NHL pull a player from NCAA mid season. Not something you see often. Congrats to the kid, though!

A ton of goalies out... seems to be injuries, I'm not sure if there is a Covid issue.

 

[Twine Tickler]

This is a quality reply, I appreciate you taking the time to articulate your thoughts. I see both sides, cap constraints may force us to be more patient. However I'm also one of those fans that just wants to see us win now, we have the base of a great team and I believe it's also a gamble to wait on prospects. If I'm listening to my gut, I think Amirov is the guy you trade. I just don't see him being better than Mikehyev in my opinion. I think Robertson has all the tools to be a really good player and can play a lot like a better Kerfoot. But I'm not an NHL scout so I could be completely wrong.

At the end of the day it's a gamble to wait on prospects that may never pan out. So I don't envy Dubas' position. But if I'm looking at it from Dubas' point of view as a GM. I might not be here in 2-3 years so you can't depend on those prospects to lead you to the promise land.

Additionally as fans we can't continue to be traumatized and scared because things didn't work out in the past. You don't grow that way. We need to stop equating everything to a dumb move that was made 10+ years ago, it's long gone. TBH outside of the Foligno and maybe Kessel deal, the leafs haven't lost a whole lot of deals in recent years.

I definitely see your angle. I think we can all understand that we have a window here in the next couple years where there will come a point where we cannot keep waiting for our prospects to develop. Ultimately there are only so many roster positions for these kids to fill at the end of the day anyways.

I just think we have to wait. Robertson, after a exceptional D+1 has to some degree levelled off on his development for the time being. Unfortunately this really was not a result of poor development or the player regressing, but 2 relatively serious leg injuries and a pandemic that have just gotten in the way of him progressing. I still think this kid has it. He's just too dynamic to not make it IMO. But his value has taken a hit from where he was a year ago.

To a lesser degree, Amirov has had a very similar trajectory. I think the odd nature of Russian development in comparison to the standard that has been in place around the world has made him look less productive and less valuable to other teams potentially. Sprinkle in a couple injuries and his value in trade likely does not match his actual potential.

To me, Amirov and Robby are far better players than what their current value in a trade would likely suggest. Whereas a Holmberg/Hirvonen level prospect is likely a touch overvalued currently and pose significant less risk if we were to part ways with them. Of course their values are not the same as Robby/Amirov, but like I mentioned earlier, I truly don't think we need to get the top dog at the TDL. we have 4 star forwards as is, and Kerf/Bunting are playing very well in the top 6 as is. There is only so many pucks to go around. For example, Taylor Hall in Boston. I think we can all agree he is probably an upgrade in quality from Kerf and Bunting. But his production would suggest otherwise.

Hall being the #4F on his team has kind of capped him at that 0.66Pt/game pace. I really don't think if Hall played for the Leafs he would produce any better just on opportunity alone. The cost BOS paid to acquire him was peanuts, but my point is we already have our big dogs IMO. I don't think anyone we'd be in the market to acquire would need Amirov/Robby going the other way. But if a game changing player like Patty Kane were to be had with double retention, absolutely that is the type of player I'd be willing to part with a top prospect to get.

If Robby or Amirov go the other way, we need a very high end player coming back for more than 1 playoff IMO. With our cap construction the way it is, I just don't see that happening. So I am quite OK just making depth moves and running it back with our current group.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

You're probably right. I guess I just haven't noticed. Do you have any examples?

A lot of the ones I have are guys who sucked and were not getting playing time.

Tyler Boucher. Jeremy Bracco (did it a few months before the WJC).

 

[Fogelhund]

I definitely see your angle. I think we can all understand that we have a window here in the next couple years where there will come a point where we cannot keep waiting for our prospects to develop. Ultimately there are only so many roster positions for these kids to fill at the end of the day anyways.

I just think we have to wait. Robertson, after a exceptional D+1 has to some degree levelled off on his development for the time being. Unfortunately this really was not a result of poor development or the player regressing, but 2 relatively serious leg injuries and a pandemic that have just gotten in the way of him progressing. I still think this kid has it. He's just too dynamic to not make it IMO. But his value has taken a hit from where he was a year ago.

To a lesser degree, Amirov has had a very similar trajectory. I think the odd nature of Russian development in comparison to the standard that has been in place around the world has made him look less productive and less valuable to other teams potentially. Sprinkle in a couple injuries and his value in trade likely does not match his actual potential.

To me, Amirov and Robby are far better players than what their current value in a trade would likely suggest. Whereas a Holmberg/Hirvonen level prospect is likely a touch overvalued currently and pose significant less risk if we were to part ways with them. Of course their values are not the same as Robby/Amirov, but like I mentioned earlier, I truly don't think we need to get the top dog at the TDL. we have 4 star forwards as is, and Kerf/Bunting are playing very well in the top 6 as is. There is only so many pucks to go around. For example, Taylor Hall in Boston. I think we can all agree he is probably an upgrade in quality from Kerf and Bunting. But his production would suggest otherwise.

Hall being the #4F on his team has kind of capped him at that 0.66Pt/game pace. I really don't think if Hall played for the Leafs he would produce any better just on opportunity alone. The cost BOS paid to acquire him was peanuts, but my point is we already have our big dogs IMO. I don't think anyone we'd be in the market to acquire would need Amirov/Robby going the other way. But if a game changing player like Patty Kane were to be had with double retention, absolutely that is the type of player I'd be willing to part with a top prospect to get.

If Robby or Amirov go the other way, we need a very high end player coming back for more than 1 playoff IMO. With our cap construction the way it is, I just don't see that happening. So I am quite OK just making depth moves and running it back with our current group.

This is part of why I'd be willing to take a risk on Kane. Keep our prospects for the most part. Except maybe a D transaction... might cost us some prospects.

 

[LeafChief]

A lot of the ones I have are guys who sucked and were not getting playing time.

Tyler Boucher. Jeremy Bracco (did it a few months before the WJC).

Yeah I more so meant players that left because they were too good to pass up on rather than players that left because they were struggling to keep up with the NCAA pace/style of play.

 

[Fogelhund]

 

[ACC1224]

Going to watch my first Marlies game today.

Who are the players I can keep an eye on?

 

[francis246]

I definitely see your angle. I think we can all understand that we have a window here in the next couple years where there will come a point where we cannot keep waiting for our prospects to develop. Ultimately there are only so many roster positions for these kids to fill at the end of the day anyways.

I just think we have to wait. Robertson, after a exceptional D+1 has to some degree levelled off on his development for the time being. Unfortunately this really was not a result of poor development or the player regressing, but 2 relatively serious leg injuries and a pandemic that have just gotten in the way of him progressing. I still think this kid has it. He's just too dynamic to not make it IMO. But his value has taken a hit from where he was a year ago.

To a lesser degree, Amirov has had a very similar trajectory. I think the odd nature of Russian development in comparison to the standard that has been in place around the world has made him look less productive and less valuable to other teams potentially. Sprinkle in a couple injuries and his value in trade likely does not match his actual potential.

To me, Amirov and Robby are far better players than what their current value in a trade would likely suggest. Whereas a Holmberg/Hirvonen level prospect is likely a touch overvalued currently and pose significant less risk if we were to part ways with them. Of course their values are not the same as Robby/Amirov, but like I mentioned earlier, I truly don't think we need to get the top dog at the TDL. we have 4 star forwards as is, and Kerf/Bunting are playing very well in the top 6 as is. There is only so many pucks to go around. For example, Taylor Hall in Boston. I think we can all agree he is probably an upgrade in quality from Kerf and Bunting. But his production would suggest otherwise.

Hall being the #4F on his team has kind of capped him at that 0.66Pt/game pace. I really don't think if Hall played for the Leafs he would produce any better just on opportunity alone. The cost BOS paid to acquire him was peanuts, but my point is we already have our big dogs IMO. I don't think anyone we'd be in the market to acquire would need Amirov/Robby going the other way. But if a game changing player like Patty Kane were to be had with double retention, absolutely that is the type of player I'd be willing to part with a top prospect to get.

If Robby or Amirov go the other way, we need a very high end player coming back for more than 1 playoff IMO. With our cap construction the way it is, I just don't see that happening. So I am quite OK just making depth moves and running it back with our current group.

Exactly, my whole point is if there is a player with term that can be a game changer for us I'd be willing to move almost any prospect outside of Knies. Even if they were expiring I'd consider it, if we could make it work. For example a guy like Tomas Hertl is a pending UFA but adding a guy of his calibre would greatly increase our cup aspirations. Can play the wing or center and is a huge upgrade over many of our wingers on the left side. I just think at the end of the day I'm not convinced we are going to graduate all of our guys, the reality is some of them are going to bust. (Hopefully none do, but even then we just won't have the space for them and it's unrealistic to think we won't ever sign another UFA). Nothing in life comes without risk, if we can get a deep cup run I'd be okay with Dubas moving any asset. That being said I do think Dubas will make a move at the deadline, I'm thinking it's a Tyler Toffoli, Mark Giordano or Jakub Chychrun move. I do think he will reward the guys with a key pick up.

I just dont think depth moves are enough to put us over the hump. It's what we have been doing and it hasn't worked.

 

[LeafChief]

Going to watch my first Marlies game today.

Who are the players I can keep an eye on?

Steeves has looked very good there. Both Woll and Kallgren as well.

Abramov started slow (offensively) but has picked it up. Ho-Sang always interests me when I watch. Most of the Leafs higher end D prospects are in Europe. Not too many of the Marlies d-men excite me too much other than Kral but that's more of a personal opinion than an opinion on how they project.

 

[ACC1224]

Steeves has looked very good there. Both Woll and Kallgren as well.

Abramov started slow (offensively) but has picked it up. Ho-Sang always interests me when I watch. Most of the Leafs higher end D prospects are in Europe. Not too many of the Marlies d-men excite me too much other than Kral but that's more of a personal opinion than an opinion on how they project.

Thanks. Forgot about Steeves and Ho Sang

 

[LeafChief]

Thanks. Forgot about Steeves and Ho Sang

There are likely more that I am missing off the top of my head.

Seney and Anderson have been hot in the last few games I've watched. Seney is more of a AAAA player than he is a prospect though.

 

[ACC1224]

There are likely more that I am missing off the top of my head.

Seney and Anderson have been hot in the last few games I've watched. Seney is more of a AAAA player than he is a prospect though.

Good call on Steeves already on the board.