Speculation: Marleau and leafs parting ways

[93gilmour93]

The Marleau contract is good for a team looking to save cash going out. After his bonus on July 1st he gets paid 1.25 million dollars with a 6.25 cap hit. A 5 million dollar savings would sound good to an owner depending on a team

 

[BB88]

is that what he is doing?

my take... if leafs eat 1/2 his salary and dont expect anything back maybe a team like san jose brings him back since he was rather popular there and they might expect a bounceback from him.

LA/Anaheim are in complete rebuilds... if Toronto was throwing in a very top pick/prospect then maybe they are interested but otherwise why the hell would they be?

san jose is the only team that makes much sense at all and I put their odds at contending for a cup well above torontos

He signed a 3 year deal in Toronto to win a Cup, if he plays for 1 more season it's for Cup and nothing else.

San Jose has Pavelski and Karlsson deals up with few others, one would think those take priority over offering Toronto a massive favour.

Your 1st and 2nd paragraphs contradict themselves. A defensively strong vet top 9 winger under 4 mill that you're expecting 35-40 points from has positive value. Perhaps not enough for Braun straight up, but given the histories involved with a mid-small add it's not inconceivable. Especially since SJ would need to send money back

When you are in cap hell a guy like Marleau even at 50% doesn't have a positive value.

You want cap space, you are going to have to pay for it.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Your 1st and 2nd paragraphs contradict themselves. A defensively strong vet top 9 winger under 4 mill that you're expecting 35-40 points from has positive value. Perhaps not enough for Braun straight up, but given the histories involved with a mid-small add it's not inconceivable. Especially since SJ would need to send money back

No they don't because there is more to player value than cap hit and ability. Marleau has a full NMC where he can hand pick any destination he goes to. Toronto can't try to trade him for the best offer they can get, they specifically have to trade him to where he wants to go. Marleau's value is absolutely shot because of that. The Leafs either keep him, which results in them getting in a world of pain with the salary cap, or they trade him to where he wants to go. He has no actual trade value because of that.

 

[seanlinden]

The bottom line -- Marleau has a full NMC. The only team he's likely to consider a move to is San Jose.

Maybe as another poster mentioned, the Leafs are able to find a solution where you retain 50% on Marleau, and add a young defenceman to get Braun. Yeah, the net result is that you're essentially paying Braun $6m for next year, but at least you're filling a need alongside Morgan Rielly, whereas Marleau really became redundant up front.

 

[4thline]

No they don't because there is more to player value than cap hit and ability. Marleau has a full NMC where he can hand pick any destination he goes to. Toronto can't try to trade him for the best offer they can get, they specifically have to trade him to where he wants to go. Marleau's value is absolutely shot because of that. The Leafs either keep him, which results in them getting in a world of pain with the salary cap, or they trade him to where he wants to go. He has no actual trade value because of that.

Players with complete control of their destination have returned value before. Gm's aren't as insular and petty as HF posters, they're almost collaborative to a fault (see lack of offersheets).

 

[Gandalf The Habs Fan]

Depend of the situation but if mtl has the cap space in August...I would take him but it gonna cost a 1st

 

[Patty Ice]

The bottom line -- Marleau has a full NMC. The only team he's likely to consider a move to is San Jose.

Maybe as another poster mentioned, the Leafs are able to find a solution where you retain 50% on Marleau, and add a young defenceman to get Braun. Yeah, the net result is that you're essentially paying Braun $6m for next year, but at least you're filling a need alongside Morgan Rielly, whereas Marleau really became redundant up front.

Two ways I think it would only work for San Jose is if that add is a 2020 1st to recoup the ones they have dealt and the second is if Karlsson walks. They have a bunch of players to sign to new deals and having 4 mil (after Braun) tied up in Marleau is a big ask.

 

[TOGuy14]

The only way Marleau gets moved is to a poor team looking to hit the floor like Ottawa or if he retires and gets "traded"

Leafs pay out like 90% of the money left on his contract on July 1st meaning he has a 6.25M cap hit with only 1M owed in real dollars.

 

[The List Of Jericho]

The Leafs wouldn't be "moving on" from Marleau. It's the other way around. No one will take that contract, and if they will, Marleau will have a choice of where he goes. Leafs have no flexibility in this, Patty holds all the cards.

It’s a one year deal, a cap floor team could easily take it on for an incentive. Or he ends up on Robidas Island...there have have been a few guests.

 

[howkie]

The only way Marleau gets moved is to a poor team looking to hit the floor like Ottawa or if he retires and gets "traded"

Leafs pay out like 90% of the money left on his contract on July 1st meaning he has a 6.25M cap hit with only 1M owed in real dollars.

Why would Pat M wanna play on Ottawa or any other bad teams? Suffer for 1 mil salary, doubt it.

 

[branch]

It’s a one year deal, a cap floor team could easily take it on for an incentive. Or he ends up on Robidas Island...there have have been a few guests.

Certainly helps the reputation of the team to attract veteran UFAs to just banish them to LTIR.

 

[branch]

Why would Pat M wanna play on Ottawa or any other bad teams? Suffer for 1 mil salary, doubt it.

Conveniently enough to add to your argument, Ottawa and Toronto won the same amount of playoff series this year.

 

[Hasbro]

How effective is Marleau now?

 

[howkie]

Conveniently enough to add to your argument, Ottawa and Toronto won the same amount of playoff series this year.

True, but I think Leafs have a bigger chance to win 1 serie next year =)

 

[uncleben]

Why would Pat M wanna play on Ottawa or any other bad teams? Suffer for 1 mil salary, doubt it.

I almost wonder, and this is pure speculation, if Marleau is ready to retire. He's in control, so I don't really see why'd he just go to any team, move his family again, this late in his career, especially without a chance to win the Cup.
But maybe if he feels he's actually done, he'll agree to be traded, and then either retire with that new team (sticking them with the cap hit) or just elect not to play.

 

[uncleben]

How effective is Marleau now?

He's still a decent bottom 6, imo, and been an incredible leader off-ice for our team.
But Babcock likes to give him top 6 minutes and second PP time, and - not a knock on Marleau or to take anything away from his career - but that's just not where he is right now.

But at half his cost on someone's third line, I think most teams could be happy with him.

 

[The List Of Jericho]

Certainly helps the reputation of the team to attract veteran UFAs to just banish them to LTIR.

Produce and you avoid the island...pretty simple.

 

[traffic cone]

Haha oh yes, I’m sure every Leafs fan like this ”credible source” here would love to just ”move on” from Marleau.

The cap crunch is inevitable. Don’t try to run away or hide.

 

[gamer1035]

Why would we do that? If he knows hes done as a player send him to Robidas Island.

 

[Snowman]

He's still a decent bottom 6, imo, and been an incredible leader off-ice for our team.
But Babcock likes to give him top 6 minutes and second PP time, and - not a knock on Marleau or to take anything away from his career - but that's just not where he is right now.

But at half his cost on someone's third line, I think most teams could be happy with him.

"Most teams could be happy with him" is reaaallllyyyy stretching it. At the most there might be a half dozen. Of those, the teams where Marleau would agree to be traded to is roughly around zero.

 

[howkie]

I almost wonder, and this is pure speculation, if Marleau is ready to retire. He's in control, so I don't really see why'd he just go to any team, move his family again, this late in his career, especially without a chance to win the Cup.
But maybe if he feels he's actually done, he'll agree to be traded, and then either retire with that new team (sticking them with the cap hit) or just elect not to play.

That sounds like a solutions. He retires with the understanding he gets traded to a team (Arizona) with an asset attached as thank you for taking his cap (6,25 mil) or whatever it is.

 

[Hasbro]

He's still a decent bottom 6, imo, and been an incredible leader off-ice for our team.
But Babcock likes to give him top 6 minutes and second PP time, and - not a knock on Marleau or to take anything away from his career - but that's just not where he is right now.

But at half his cost on someone's third line, I think most teams could be happy with him.

I'd be for the Avalanche taking him in a cap dump deal if he can still play and they might be a team he'd be willing to waive for, but it would have to be the Leafs giving something to get rid of him.

 

[WTFMAN99]

It only works if he wants to retire.

Leafs pay his bonus July 1st and on July 2nd send him and a pick to Ottawa where he retires. Ottawa pays $0 but gets a $6.25M cap hit and it saves Melnyk money.

 

[Sundinisagod]

It only works if he wants to retire.

Leafs pay his bonus July 1st and on July 2nd send him and a pick to Ottawa where he retires. Ottawa pays $0 but gets a $6.25M cap hit and it saves Melnyk money.

Why is Toronto sending a pick if Ottawa is getting that 6.25m cap hit for free.

 

[KingsCourt]

lol..has a 6M contract, a NTC, and seems to be big brother to matthews and marner, on a young upcoming team...yea he wants to leave...smh