McKenzie: Mark Stone Mega-Thread Pt. 2 - Jets pursuing Stone, Ottawa working on contract extension

[Jeti]

One thing that I hope has already been pointed out is how incredibly weak the returns for Kovalchuk and Hossa were. Bergfors and Armstrong, among other issues, went straight downhill. That's not to say the Stone returns should or will be as weak. It could be that teams were just seriously underbidding when elite level talent was available, offering more or less similar packages regardless of whether Hossa (higher tier) or Ladd (lower tier) were on offer. I'm curious to find out if that market imbalance is corrected this year.

Deadline returns have always just been weird like that. It's almost like there's a saturation effect on prices - the stars don't go for that much more than average top 6 players, who themselves don't go for much more than bottom 6 utility players. I don't know enough about microeconomics to put a proper label on it. I'd guess it's a balance of risk - i.e. most teams don't win the cup - and needing to look competent. There's only so much GMs are willing to give up for a rental when it's likely they'll still lose. On the other hand, contenders are expected to at least pick up someone, so the price of depth players is inflated.

Hossa went for not much more than Ladd, who went for not much more than Gaustad. There's variability year to year, but prices have never come close to some of the returns Sens fans have been suggesting.

I wouldn't hold out hope that one of the most incompetent teams in the league right now will be the one to change that though.

 

[BurgoShark]

You want Dorion's liver as well?

You can have mine for a 4th rounder; maybe soak it and wring it out before you use it though.

No warranty.

 

[BurgoShark]

Deadline returns have always just been weird like that. It's almost like there's a saturation effect on prices - the stars don't go for that much more than average top 6 players, who themselves don't go for much more than bottom 6 utility players. I don't know enough about microeconomics to put a proper label on it. I'd guess it's a balance of risk - i.e. most teams don't win the cup - and needing to look competent. There's only so much GMs are willing to give up for a rental when it's likely they'll still lose. On the other hand, contenders are expected to at least pick up someone, so the price of depth players is inflated.

Hossa went for not much more than Ladd, who went for not much more than Gaustad. There's variability year to year, but prices have never come close to some of the returns Sens fans have been suggesting.

I wouldn't hold out hope that one of the most incompetent teams in the league right now will be the one to change that though.

Hossa went for a decent return on the day. Hindsight says it was a bad deal but at the time both Esposito (pick #20 the draft prior) and Amstrong (recent 1st rounder with 20 goal/50 point potential) were top prospects for the Penguins, and Christensen was a very recent 3rd round pick who was considered a decent chance of becoming a regular NHL player.

So based on today's logic, Hossa returned:

1st round pick
Top prospect (Esposito - Penguins best prospect at the time other than MAF, Crosby, Malkin, Staal who were all top 2 picks and playing in the NHL already)
Young cost-controlled roster player (Armstrong) who had recently scored 16 goals in 60 games and shown top 6 potential
Another young cheap fringe player (Christensen - recent 3rd rounder)

 

[BurgoShark]

double

 

[The don godfather]

I think the Bruins are out of this due to the Coyle trade.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

So 2 capdumps, one meh player and a 2nd rounder for Stone?

Damn.

You want Dorion's liver as well?

And some fava beans and a nice chianti?

 

[Corvus Corax]

He said that Stone is the number one target for teams at the deadline bar none.

That's a tough one to call. I think McKenzie is giving his opinion on a number of factors outside of just who is the better player. Personal preference being one.

Mark Stone advantages
26 year old RW
Size, defensive play, possible assets needed to trade to acquire, chance of resigning
5x20g+ seasons

Artemi Panarin advantages
27 year old LW
Regular season statistic average, better playoff statistics, has stayed consistently healthy, current remaining cap hit is slightly lower
2x30g+ and 2x20g+ seasons

As a Bruins fan I take 2019 Mark Stone based on positional need, defensive play and size and the fact we would probably be able to get him for less of a dent to the current roster than Panarin would cost.
But in pure fantasy draft. If same contract, same years on contract and my centers were set but I had no wingers I would take Panarin slightly over Stone.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

So if I want Stone to be a pure rental who am I rooting for to acquire him? The jets?

Not that they are supposed to be into him, but Tampa

 

[SpezDispenser]

I liked the 2nd Brassard trade.. man that was a good couple hours of excitement.

Yeah, Dorion knocked that one out of the park.

 

[Ori]

Mark Stone will not a win a cup in Ottawa so why not a future - he will be 27 years old and Ottawa rebuilding and need to draft their future core.

 

[Crazy Joe Divola]

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Dorion's plan to maximize return of Duchene.

 

[Hunter368]

Yup......if PD waits too long and can’t sign Stone his return will decrease bc the major buyers might of moved onto other options. Tick tock

Fun times

 

[Whileee]

I think the Jets probably have a high interest in Hayes and Staal, and each would likely command a 1st round pick. They only have one pick to trade, so I expect that the pressure is going to be on sellers to get the top buyers' best deals before they move on.

 

[TitansVolsPreds615]

Mark Stone will not a win a cup in Ottawa so why not a future - he will be 27 years old and Ottawa rebuilding and need to draft their future core.

Maybe he isn't overly concerned with a Cup right now. $10.5MM is decent compensation to play for a rebuilding team.

 

[tntkid]

Just wait until summer and sign Stone for free without giving up anything is starting to sound much better for teams.

 

[Jeti]

Hossa went for a decent return on the day. Hindsight says it was a bad deal but at the time both Esposito (pick #20 the draft prior) and Amstrong (recent 1st rounder with 20 goal/50 point potential) were top prospects for the Penguins, and Christensen was a very recent 3rd round pick who was considered a decent chance of becoming a regular NHL player.

So based on today's logic, Hossa returned:

1st round pick
Top prospect (Esposito - Penguins best prospect at the time other than MAF, Crosby, Malkin, Staal who were all top 2 picks and playing in the NHL already)
Young cost-controlled roster player (Armstrong) who had recently scored 16 goals in 60 games and shown top 6 potential
Another young cheap fringe player (Christensen - recent 3rd rounder)

Esposito was a Petan-like prospect in the sense that he was a longshot but with high upside. He was always predicted even before the draft to have a high likelihood of busting, IIRC due to concerns about his work ethic and hockey IQ. Like Petan, he put up great numbers in junior but was highly unlikely to ever find NHL success. He may have been the Penguins top prospect but by most teams standards he wasn't one. Those types of prospects are definitely more valuable to rebuilding teams that can afford to swing for the fences though.

Armstrong was in his third season and hadn't looked promising since a strong rookie season. He was closer to Marko Dano than a top prospect.

Other than the first, that trade was the protocol HFboards "spare parts" deal, even at the time.

So yeah, Sens fans expecting 1st + Vesalainen/Roslovic are going to be disappointed. The more likely add to a first is a guy like Petan (on the low side) or Appleton (on the high side). If they get more than that, (as with the Hossa deal) it'll be more quantity than quality.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Just wait until summer and sign Stone for free without giving up anything is starting to sound much better for teams.

He’s gonna be a rich man. Like $250 million a year rich.

 

[periferal]

Mark Stone will not a win a cup in Ottawa so why not a future - he will be 27 years old and Ottawa rebuilding and need to draft their future core.

Some people value things in addition to winning.


#ShaneDoan

 

[tntkid]

He’s gonna be a rich man. Like $250 million a year rich.

Ottawa plays head games with their players and it already cost them Karlsson.
Soon it will be Duchene for scraps.

Their GM is doing a great job of tanking that team.

 

[Pyrophorus]

Burn down this one, I heard:

Patrik Laine

for

Mark Stone
Matt Duchene
Ryan Dzingel

Well?

 

[Kranix]

Burn down this one, I heard:

Patrik Laine

for

Mark Stone
Matt Duchene
Ryan Dzingel

Well?

Laine isn't even worth Dzingel at this point

 

[Sensinitis]

Just wait until summer and sign Stone for free without giving up anything is starting to sound much better for teams.

Sure but for contending teams you waste a year of your window instead of getting him and going for it in 2019.

 

[Korpse]

Yup......if PD waits too long and can’t sign Stone his return will decrease bc the major buyers might of moved onto other options. Tick tock

Fun times

Yeah doubtful. Teams are just trying to apply pressure, don’t buy for a second that they will go a different route becuase it’s ‘taking too long’.

 

[BatVader]

Burn down this one, I heard:

Patrik Laine

for

Mark Stone
Matt Duchene
Ryan Dzingel

Well?

Can we throw in Little for a 2nd?