The Panther
Registered User
Despite my somewhat pessimistic thread about realistic scenarios if the Oilers miss the playoffs, I still think they have a reasonable (like, 45-50%) chance to make it in. A coin-flip, if you will. But it's clearly imperative that injured players start coming back soon.
I feel a little sorry for Woodcroft because (being the Oilers) they brought him in at the worst possible time -- right when the schedule was about to get super-tough, when there were no practice days, and when injuries were just starting to mount. Fans are all over Woodcroft now for the two failed Smith starts, but I think those were more like last-gasp attempts to pacify the manager's expectation, and that's all over now. Likewise, fans point out that Woody is over-playing the big guys again now, but I think that's only because of the ridiculous amount of injuries now. That will (I expect) stop once Nuge and Bouch and Barrie and Puljujarvi are back. There's also clearly something wrong with the health / energy level of some guys, notably Nurse and McDavid in the last game. So, lots of bad luck for Woodcroft, as Holland basically threw him under the bus.
Washington are a beatable team, actually. Edmonton snuck out a win against them recently (largely thanks to RNH, who had maybe his best game of the season against them). After a 14-3-5 start, the Capitals are 16-15-4 since, which is actually below .500 in real terms.
I think we can conclude, however, that if the Oilers get 0 points in this next one, the season is probably over.
Here's how I felt in my mind going into the Montreal game:
-- Current chances to make playoffs = 65%
Here's how I felt in my mind going into the Calgary game:
-- Current chances to make playoffs = 55%-60%
How's here I feel after the Calgary game:
-- Current chances to make playoffs = 45%-50%
If they lose to Washington, my expectation drops to around 38%-40%, which means, barring miracles, the season is probably over. But if they win and starting getting players back, my expectation maybe jumps back to 50%.
I feel a little sorry for Woodcroft because (being the Oilers) they brought him in at the worst possible time -- right when the schedule was about to get super-tough, when there were no practice days, and when injuries were just starting to mount. Fans are all over Woodcroft now for the two failed Smith starts, but I think those were more like last-gasp attempts to pacify the manager's expectation, and that's all over now. Likewise, fans point out that Woody is over-playing the big guys again now, but I think that's only because of the ridiculous amount of injuries now. That will (I expect) stop once Nuge and Bouch and Barrie and Puljujarvi are back. There's also clearly something wrong with the health / energy level of some guys, notably Nurse and McDavid in the last game. So, lots of bad luck for Woodcroft, as Holland basically threw him under the bus.
Washington are a beatable team, actually. Edmonton snuck out a win against them recently (largely thanks to RNH, who had maybe his best game of the season against them). After a 14-3-5 start, the Capitals are 16-15-4 since, which is actually below .500 in real terms.
I think we can conclude, however, that if the Oilers get 0 points in this next one, the season is probably over.
Here's how I felt in my mind going into the Montreal game:
-- Current chances to make playoffs = 65%
Here's how I felt in my mind going into the Calgary game:
-- Current chances to make playoffs = 55%-60%
How's here I feel after the Calgary game:
-- Current chances to make playoffs = 45%-50%
If they lose to Washington, my expectation drops to around 38%-40%, which means, barring miracles, the season is probably over. But if they win and starting getting players back, my expectation maybe jumps back to 50%.
