Maple Leafs "window" officially closed.

[PromisedLand]

Maple Leaf window was officially closed the day dubas was hired as a gm

 

[noo]

No I'm saying the Leafs window started awhile ago and you missed it. Those 4 top level pieces havent worked so far and its downhill from here until Dubas is canned.

Why did it start a while ago though.. I don't agree with the idea that a window starts once the player is drafted. Do you think the Rangers' window was open this year? Or Devils?? Kids need a few years in the NHL to really figure it out more often than not.. "they're paid now so they suck" makes no sense..

Why would it be downhill from here? 3 core players are u25.. you're trying to tell me they're gonna get worse?? lmao

Clearly they're running it back this year, if it works - great. If not, trade 1 of 4 and try again..

Define "late in their career". I don't think that's very accurate with regards to "cores" of a lot of Cup winners, particularly since the salary cap era.

Pens - Crosby was 21 years old when they won their first Cup. He was 20 years old when they went to the finals and lost to Detroit the prior year. Malkin was 22 and 21, respectively for each of those years.

Hawks - Kane and Toews were 21 when the Hawks won their first Cup. They'd won 2 Cups by the time each was 24 years old.

Kings - Kopitar was 24 when they won their first Cup. Doughty was 22 years old.

Lightning - Kucherov didn't win until age 26, but he had long playoff runs at ages 21, 22, and 24 prior to that. Point's won back to back Cups at age 23 and 24.

Caps and Blues are probably the only recent Cup winners whose core was made up of older players. So it just seems like another attempt at excusing Toronto's lack of success with this core by suggesting it's way too early in their careers to expect them to be contenders who either go on deep playoff runs or actually win it all yet.

Stamkos, Ovi, and Bergeron won later just to name a few.. and it's not like we're talking about Leafs players that are 30?? They're 23 or 24... I never said it's way too early to actually win it all, but the expectation they should hasn't been there yet. Which is normal.....

You named like 5 players that were actually younger than the Leafs core.. How about every other top 10 pick between the Matthews and Nylander drafts. You think all those players' windows are closed too? We're not at "core made up of older players" quite yet.. maybe in 5 more years.

You actually think it's game over once you hit 25 or something?!?

 

[Nothingbutglass]

Why did it start a while ago though.. I don't agree with the idea that a window starts once the player is drafted. Do you think the Rangers' window was open this year? Or Devils?? Kids need a few years in the NHL to really figure it out more often than not.. "they're paid now so they suck" makes no sense..

Why would it be downhill from here? 3 core players are u25.. you're trying to tell me they're gonna get worse?? lmao

Clearly they're running it back this year, if it works - great. If not, trade 1 of 4 and try again..



Stamkos, Ovi, and Bergeron won later just to name a few.. and it's not like we're talking about Leafs players that are 30?? They're 23 or 24... I never said it's way too early to actually win it all, but the expectation they should hasn't been there yet. Which is normal.....

You named like 5 players that were actually younger than the Leafs core.. How about every other top 10 pick between the Matthews and Nylander drafts. You think all those players' windows are closed too? We're not at "core made up of older players" quite yet.. maybe in 5 more years.

You actually think it's game over once you hit 25 or something?!?

You keep talking about age as if its some guarantee of improvement, while ignoring their salaries which are not ELC anymore. It will be downhill because you cant afford to keep your 1LD now and your next best D are in their 30s. You have no ELC help on the horizon and have to fill out the roster with bargain bin players. The "they're paid so now they suck" comment doesnt even make any sense. But sure, maybe just running it back over and over will work while shedding pieces every year.

 

[AvroArrow]

That doesn't say anything. Buffalo has young talent too, are their window open ?

Buffalo has been a consistent cellar team so no their window is not open. But it will be soon, they have good young players and will likely get a kings ransom for Eichel.

Having elite young players should say something. A 90+ point winger and an elite young C who just won the rocket in convincing fashion and are under 25, tell me again why their window is closed ? Cap situation ? It is a concern but it can be worked around as we've seen. Their biggest challenge is getting out of the 1st round and while it is a huge concern, it doesn't mean their window is closed. If the core was all like 32+ and declining, yeah I get it, but these guys are all young and haven't even hit their primes yet.

 

[noo]

You keep talking about age as if its some guarantee of improvement, while ignoring their salaries which are not ELC anymore. It will be downhill because you cant afford to keep your 1LD now and your next best D are in their 30s. You have no ELC help on the horizon and have to fill out the roster with bargain bin players. The "they're paid so now they suck" comment doesnt even make any sense. But sure, maybe just running it back over and over will work while shedding pieces every year.

And you keep talking about salary as if that's all that matters.. the hardest part of building a good team is getting elite players to build around, usually a centre, which the Leafs have.

Age maybe isn't a "guarantee" of improvement, but it's very very likely. Players get better as they grow and gain experience, and their core 3 are at the age where typically you have your best years. Why is hard to believe MMN won't learn and get better like every other player in the league?

Their D is fine.. We'll see what happens with Rielly this offseason, but they've been good the last couple years. And yes, they do have ELC help on the horizon.. Robertson, Anderson, Amirov, Brooks.. all players who have a chance this year or next to slot in. For D they have Sandin & Lilly probably joining the team this year, 2 more ELCs.. so what if they need to find a couple decent bargain players to fill out the bottom 6?? who cares.. if their core figures out how to play playoff hockey the team will be fine.

And again, they still have the option to trade a core piece if it's not working.. (probably next year if they get shit on again)

Leafs window is opening right now and will be open for the next half decade, at least.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

44 pages and I don't think I saw a single definition of what "window" even means... lol

The way I see it is it probably hasn't opened yet. Maybe this year was the first.

First few years of the MMN core they were still kids, no expectation to win (realistically).. at all... making the playoffs and putting up a little fight was just nice.

Last year was the first time they might have been favourites going into a series against Columbus, but even then it was pretty close. Still no real expectation to win anything though. Would it be nice if they can win a round at this point? Sure... but still not really a contender yet.

This year was the first time they were actually supposed to go anywhere. Most people had them going to the third round. and they choked. hard.. I think this was the first year that the window might have been open.

Now the core is entering their prime. They're all something like 23/24? They got the next 6-8 of their best years to go on a run and try to win.. assuming they re-sign with the Leafs. Even if they need to ultimately trade a piece to balance out the team, doesn't mean the window is closed.. the elite talent is all still there... just need to find a group that works

It depends who you consider the core. Yes Marner and Matthews are young. Muzzin (32), Brodie (31) and Tavares (31 next month)are all over 30 years old. They likely have all passed their peak years even though they are still good players. Nylander may or may not be core. Rielly may or may not be re-signed and if he is the contract will likely be another expensive one which will result in even less cap space.
So two young star players. And some older ones.

 

[noo]

It depends who you consider the core. Yes Marner and Matthews are young. Muzzin (32), Brodie (31) and Tavares (31 next month)are all over 30 years old. They likely have all passed their peak years even though they are still good players. Nylander may or may not be core. Rielly may or may not be re-signed and if he is the contract will likely be another expensive one which will result in even less cap space.
So two young star players. And some older ones.

lol why wouldn't Nylander be part of the core??

IMO Leafs core = AM, MM, WN, JT

Maybe can include Rielly as well, although I think he's going to get traded.. unless he signs for a significant discount.. which I doubt.

The rest are just good players that have been brought in to surround these main guys. Good player <> core piece.

So, yeah.. JT is 30+, Rielly 27.. the other three are 23/24. Only Tavares is really at risk of starting to decline, the rest have at least a few more good/great years ahead, and it's not unreasonable to expect that some of their best years are still to come...

 

[DS7]

lol why wouldn't Nylander be part of the core??

IMO Leafs core = AM, MM, WN, JT

Maybe can include Rielly as well, although I think he's going to get traded.. unless he signs for a significant discount.. which I doubt.

The rest are just good players that have been brought in to surround these main guys. Good player <> core piece.

So, yeah.. JT is 30+, Rielly 27.. the other three are 23/24. Only Tavares is really at risk of starting to decline, the rest have at least a few more good/great years ahead, and it's not unreasonable to expect that some of their best years are still to come...

Nylander is part of the core to me, but I'm already kind of penciling him out in the future because he's the easiest contract to move, and Leafs need cap. He wouldn't be my first choice, but I doubt Tavares waives his No trade or a trading partner can be found for Marner's cap hit.

 

[Dache]

lol why wouldn't Nylander be part of the core??

IMO Leafs core = AM, MM, WN, JT

Maybe can include Rielly as well, although I think he's going to get traded.. unless he signs for a significant discount.. which I doubt.

The rest are just good players that have been brought in to surround these main guys. Good player <> core piece.

So, yeah.. JT is 30+, Rielly 27.. the other three are 23/24. Only Tavares is really at risk of starting to decline, the rest have at least a few more good/great years ahead, and it's not unreasonable to expect that some of their best years are still to come...

Nylander is 25, but I get your point

 

[WetcoastOrca]

lol why wouldn't Nylander be part of the core??

IMO Leafs core = AM, MM, WN, JT

Maybe can include Rielly as well, although I think he's going to get traded.. unless he signs for a significant discount.. which I doubt.

The rest are just good players that have been brought in to surround these main guys. Good player <> core piece.

So, yeah.. JT is 30+, Rielly 27.. the other three are 23/24. Only Tavares is really at risk of starting to decline, the rest have at least a few more good/great years ahead, and it's not unreasonable to expect that some of their best years are still to come...

So three young forwards, no D and no goalie in the core then?
Seems like an issue, no?

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Stamkos, Ovi, and Bergeron won later just to name a few.. and it's not like we're talking about Leafs players that are 30?? They're 23 or 24... I never said it's way too early to actually win it all, but the expectation they should hasn't been there yet. Which is normal.....

You named like 5 players that were actually younger than the Leafs core.. How about every other top 10 pick between the Matthews and Nylander drafts. You think all those players' windows are closed too? We're not at "core made up of older players" quite yet.. maybe in 5 more years.

You actually think it's game over once you hit 25 or something?!?

I was talking about you saying that you shouldn't expect teams to compete for Cups at their age. I pointed out multiple Cup winners whose core players were competing for Cups before they were the Leafs' core's age.

Not once in my post did I say anything about "windows closed". I was specifically refuting the idea that you shouldn't expect players who are 23/24 to be contenders because that only happens when players get older.

 

[noo]

Nylander is part of the core to me, but I'm already kind of penciling him out in the future because he's the easiest contract to move, and Leafs need cap. He wouldn't be my first choice, but I doubt Tavares waives his No trade or a trading partner can be found for Marner's cap hit.

I personally don't think they'll trade Willy... or maybe I just don't want them to lol.. either way though, if they do they'll get something of value in return that will likely improve the team overall. Just because they may need to trade one of these guys doesn't mean they're screwed and it's time to blow it up.. which has kind of been my point.

Agree that JT won't waive. Sadly. He's my #1 player I would trade out obviously.. but yeah, not gonna happen.

Strongly disagree re: Marner. I think pretty much any team, minus a couple maybe, would want him and would make room if he was available.

So three young forwards, no D and no goalie in the core then?
Seems like an issue, no?

Don't think so. We'll see what happens with the Rielly situation, that'll determine what kind of shape their D is in moving forward.. but so far the last couple year it has been just fine.

As for goalies, we'll see I guess. Jack had a great year last year, it's not unheard of for a goalie to break out around his age.. could be great or could be trash. Mrazek I don't know too much about, but from what I've read on here he's OK.. not every team can have a Vezina calibre goalie, we're banking on 1 of these guys running with it. All they really need is someone who can make saves and not crumble under pressure (Freddy).

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Sorry, for clarification that should say you said "it's more common for players to win later in their careers". The last few Cup winners suggest otherwise, as I listed.

Again though, that has zero to do with me saying the window is closed. Just that this idea that the Leafs' core shouldn't have been considered contenders or expected to win yet due to their age isn't really accurate.

 

[noo]

I was talking about you saying that you shouldn't expect teams to compete for Cups at their age. I pointed out multiple Cup winners whose core players were competing for Cups before they were the Leafs' core's age.

Not once in my post did I say anything about "windows closed". I was specifically refuting the idea that you shouldn't expect players who are 23/24 to be contenders because that only happens when players get older.

I said it's more common to see players win later than the first few years they enter the league.. you named a handful that did win early. Doesn't really change what I said? We see some players win right away, some a few years down the road.. and others never at all. Maybe "far more common" wasn't the right choice of words, but the point is still true..

Just because a handful of players won under 25, doesn't mean that should be expected of everyone and you're toast if you don't... just look at other stars around the league that haven't won yet, it's the same situation as Leafs.. teams with elite players with no real success trying to build around the stars.. MacKinnon, McDavid, Ekblad, Matthews, etc.. these guys all still have an open window to make a run at the cup. They're in their prime years, not winning early in their career doesn't change that..

FWIW the OP that you quoted me was replying to a guy saying their window is closed because their stars are off their ELCs. This is why I mention "windows", the whole topic of this thread and my posts.




(post 69, nice.)

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I said it's more common to see players win later than the first few years they enter the league.. you named a handful that did win early. Doesn't really change what I said? We see some players win right away, some a few years down the road.. and others never at all. Maybe "far more common" wasn't the right choice of words, but the point is still true..

Just because a handful of players won under 25, doesn't mean that should be expected of everyone and you're toast if you don't... just look at other stars around the league that haven't won yet, it's the same situation as Leafs.. teams with elite players with no real success trying to build around the stars.. MacKinnon, McDavid, Ekblad, Matthews, etc.. these guys all still have an open window to make a run at the cup. They're in their prime years, not winning early in their career doesn't change that..

FWIW the OP that you quoted me was replying to a guy saying their window is closed because their stars are off their ELCs. This is why I mention "windows", the whole topic of this thread and my posts.




(post 69, nice.)

Maybe I misinterpreted your original comment (or two, because I sort of combined the one I quoted plus the one you made prior that I didn't quote). But it sounded to me like you were suggesting that the Leafs' core shouldn't have been expected to be contenders yet due to their age.

If that wasn't your intent, then ignore the rest.

If it was, that's where I disagreed. Most of the recent Cup champs had cores (ie. their best 1 or 2 players who they were built around) that were the same age or younger than the Leafs' core. And even the ones that didn't win until later (ie. Ovechkin), they were expected to win when he was 23/24. That's why the Caps long had a reputation of being playoff chokers until 2018, precisely because they were expected to contend.

That also doesn't touch on the fact that a lot of Toronto's guys who they rely on are older than that 23/24 range. Tavares is going to be 31 by the start of this season. Rielly's 27 years old. It's not like the entire Toronto roster is young. They have quite a few key personnel who are 27+.

Again, if that wasn't what you meant, then ignore all of the above.

 

[noo]

Maybe I misinterpreted your original comment (or two, because I sort of combined the one I quoted plus the one you made prior that I didn't quote). But it sounded to me like you were suggesting that the Leafs' core shouldn't have been expected to be contenders yet due to their age.

If that wasn't your intent, then ignore the rest.

If it was, that's where I disagreed. Most of the recent Cup champs had cores (ie. their best 1 or 2 players who they were built around) that were the same age or younger than the Leafs' core. And even the ones that didn't win until later (ie. Ovechkin), they were expected to win when he was 23/24. That's why the Caps long had a reputation of being playoff chokers until 2018, precisely because they were expected to contend.

That also doesn't touch on the fact that a lot of Toronto's guys who they rely on are older than that 23/24 range. Tavares is going to be 31 by the start of this season. Rielly's 27 years old. It's not like the entire Toronto roster is young. They have quite a few key personnel who are 27+.

Again, if that wasn't what you meant, then ignore all of the above.

That was my point though, lol.

My point is they are expected to start winning now - not 4-5 years ago when Matthews, etc first entered the league. My first post I said this year was the first year where the "window" is open. I don't think 19-20 year olds are expected to carry a team to the cup. Sure, it has happened, but it's not expected.

Their core is in the 23/24 range now, so now is when they should start making runs. They humiliated themselves on the first attempt, and have a reputation of being chokers.. doesn't mean it's over though. They have plenty of prime years ahead to improve and win something.

RE: JT, Rielly, etc.. sure, they're older. but all those recent cup winners had older key players who won their first cup alongside the younger stars. It's not like this is a unique situation for just the Leafs..

 

[Pyrophorus]

Nope. Besides that 9 pts in the boston series, marner has been pretty shit every other time. Matthews was fantastic against the caps and cbj but was meh the other three. This isn't a one time issue no matter how you put it.

Matthews has scored 6pts 2x and 5pts 2x times, I don't know how this is bad.
Marner averages 4pts every playoff, but one.

Say they do do it game 7 and that's fair, but to say the entire playoffs, is incorrect.

 

[Silver Tuna]

Their window is still open..... but unfortunately it's a doll house window. Thanks to Tavares and marner

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

44 pages and I don't think I saw a single definition of what "window" even means... lol

The way I see it is it probably hasn't opened yet. Maybe this year was the first.

First few years of the MMN core they were still kids, no expectation to win (realistically).. at all... making the playoffs and putting up a little fight was just nice.

Last year was the first time they might have been favourites going into a series against Columbus, but even then it was pretty close. Still no real expectation to win anything though. Would it be nice if they can win a round at this point? Sure... but still not really a contender yet.
This year was the first time they were actually supposed to go anywhere. Most people had them going to the third round. and they choked. hard.. I think this was the first year that the window might have been open.

Now the core is entering their prime. They're all something like 23/24? They got the next 6-8 of their best years to go on a run and try to win.. assuming they re-sign with the Leafs. Even if they need to ultimately trade a piece to balance out the team, doesn't mean the window is closed.. the elite talent is all still there... just need to find a group that works

Thanks for your very reasonable POV.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

My point is they are expected to start winning now - not 4-5 years ago when Matthews, etc first entered the league. My first post I said this year was the first year where the "window" is open. I don't think 19-20 year olds are expected to carry a team to the cup. Sure, it has happened, but it's not expected.
..

This is where we fundamentally disagree. You believe that they should only *now* be expected to contend, but I think the "window opened" the second they signed Tavares. They were a rebuilding/young team prior to that, but that signing marked "we're ready to contend" status. So that's about 3 seasons now where they should have been expected to contend.

Agree to disagree, though. I just don't think you can lump in the seasons after the Tavares signings with the seasons when Matthews/Marner/Nylander were rookies/sophomores.

 

[noo]

This is where we fundamentally disagree. You believe that they should only *now* be expected to contend, but I think the "window opened" the second they signed Tavares. They were a rebuilding/young team prior to that, but that signing marked "we're ready to contend" status. So that's about 3 seasons now where they should have been expected to contend.

Agree to disagree, though. I just don't think you can lump in the seasons after the Tavares signings with the seasons when Matthews/Marner/Nylander were rookies/sophomores.

Ehh, fair enough.. although I'd argue their D wasn't quite there yet when Tavares first signed, was pretty bad actually.. only the last year or so has it been not a detriment. But yea, agree Tavares wouldn't have signed with a rebuilding team.. at the very least him and the Leafs staff thought they were good enough..

Also, whether the window opened 1 year ago or 3, doesn't really change the fact that the core is still young and have lots of time.. which is really my whole point anyways, no chance their window is closed.. it's open now and for the foreseeable future.. how they perform while it's open? I guess we'll see...

 

[Pyrophorus]

They're still a team, with Defense, scoring, goaltending and coaching, and went into the last week
in the hunt for the presidents trophy. Don't conflate our bitter disappointment, with the play of the team.

 

[TaLoN]

Thread is full...I think the topic is pretty exhausted after this thread, don't see a need for a part 2.