it doesn't matter. Leafs allow more shots from the outside than inside which = low % shots. that is the crucial point.
This is silly. It doesn't matter if the Leafs are allowing a smaller
fraction of shots from inside if they're also allowing
more shots overall, which is exactly the case.
Look at the numbers again:
League-wide percentage: 17 per cent
Leaf shooters from inside 20 feet:
SHOTS: 124, GOALS: 30, PERCENTAGE: 24 per cent
Opposing shooters inside 20 feet:
SHOTS: 141, GOALS: 18, PERCENTAGE: 13 per cent
The fact is that the Leafs are allowing
more shots from in close than they are taking. This is the opposite of good news. It's bad news.
Now, the fact that the Leafs are scoring on a much higher percentage of their in-close shots than the opposition and the rest of the league is good news. But it's some percentage of shooter skill on the team (which is sustainable), good luck (which is not), and quality of opposition, especially goaltending (we'll see as the season rolls on).
Similarly, for outside shots:
League-wide percentage: Six per cent
SHOTS: 270, GOALS: 19, PERCENTAGE: Seven per cent
Opposing shooters from beyond 20 feet:
SHOTS: 412, GOALS: 18, PERCENTAGE: Four per cent
Again, the fact that the Leafs are giving up way more outside shots than they take is not good news! Their shooting is slightly better than league-average at range. The opponent shooting percentage is significantly lower. Again, this could be a combination of luck (a little less because the sample size is larger) and skill.
Ultimately, the stats here are completely consistent with advanced stats like Corsi/Fenwick, which is still just an exercise in counting shots. They don't disprove the notion that the Leafs are doing a poor job at driving possession. In order to maintain these stats, the Leafs need to stay in the top 3 sh% league-wide. Can they do it? It's possible giving the skill on the wing, but I'm skeptical because of the poor center depth. Also, the goaltending needs to be remain just as sharp over a full season. Does anyone think that both Reimer and Bernier can keep up .930+ sv%? I would be thrilled if they did, but I really doubt it. One of them might, but I can't see Reimer finishing with the .942 he has now and Bernier with a .933 over 82 games. If you do... well, optimism is worth something, I guess.