The Star: Maple Leafs shot breakdown reveals good news

[CellarDweller0]

Very interesting read about the Leafs and shot differential.

Maple Leafs shot breakdown reveals good news

Click to read more...

 

[thewave]

Very interesting read about the Leafs and shot differential.

Maple Leafs shot breakdown reveals good news

Hey not bad, glad someone looked into this.

 

[jmart21]

Very interesting read about the Leafs and shot differential.

Maple Leafs shot breakdown reveals good news

Great article. It's about time we stop looking at the totals and start considering the quality of shots for/against.

 

[dfunk]

Yeah, ******* off Scott Cullen

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Great article. It's about time we stop looking at the totals and start considering the quality of shots for/against.

Couldn't agree more.

I remember when Leafs regularly outshot teams about 5 years ago when we still had Jason Blake, Poni, Antorpov, etc. who'd shot from everywhere but we couldn't score.

Now we have the opposite issue where our guys hold onto the puck, don't shot as often but take higher percentage shots.

 

[FlareKnight]

Nice to see someone with some sense that can write these days.

It's a crazy idea that shot quality actually matters. Certainly it'd be nice to see the team spend more time in the offensive zone, but they are holding off shooting from everywhere to get better shot chances.

If the team was shooting from everywhere and wasn't scoring there'd be complaining why. Instead the team is actually going into the difficult areas to shoot and are scoring goals so props to them.

 

[nsleaf]

I guess you could say that "the ends justify the means".

 

[mikebel111*]

great article. it seems this issue isn't even that big. Mirtle is probably ignoring this article though

 

[mikebel111*]

Nice to see someone with some sense that can write these days.

It's a crazy idea that shot quality actually matters. Certainly it'd be nice to see the team spend more time in the offensive zone, but they are holding off shooting from everywhere to get better shot chances.

If the team was shooting from everywhere and wasn't scoring there'd be complaining why. Instead the team is actually going into the difficult areas to shoot and are scoring goals so props to them.

I think this is the system of randy. let them take shots but not in good areas. With that being said, the defence is improving IMO but there is still work to be done.

 

[SteveV*]

Anything that flies in face of CORSI I support. Put that in your theorem and smoke it

 

[ak90210]

Even if the Leafs allow a fewer percentage of their shots from in close they still allow about 8.5% more shots from that area than the average team according to the numbers given in the article.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Appears I have a follower. What recourse do I have for him not crediting me?

I kid, I kid.

 

[mikebel111*]

Even if the Leafs allow a fewer percentage of their shots from in close they still allow about 8.5% more shots from that area than the average team according to the numbers given in the article.

where? please point that out.

leafs allow less shots from in close. about 5% less.

 

[Duke Silver]

where? please point that out.

From the article:

"League-wide, 30 per cent of all shots on net come from 20 feet in (3,901 of 13,065). But Leaf opponents only manage to take 25 per cent of their shots on goal from in close (141 of 553)."

3901/30 teams = 130 shots from within 20 feet per team.

Leafs have allowed 141, which is 8.5% (or 11 shots) more than 130.

But the better way to phrase it is: The Leafs allow less than one shot per game more than the average team from within 20 feet.

In other words, it's pretty much inconsequential.

P.S: The reason our ratio of <20ft shots is 5% lower than the average is because our percentage of shots allowed from >20ft is 5% more than the average.

 

[Goonface2k14]

Good insight - I've always considered low percentage shots from far away as giveaways - they aren't that tough for goalies as long as he's not screened or the puck doesn't get deflected. Teams settle for them because they can't get to the high percentage areas. Like the Leafs team from five/six years back with Blake, Antropov, etc. Chances are you'll end up hurting your team more than benefiting them with long easy shots. The cliche saying to "get the puck on net" is a little too general of a statement IMO, and should instead be "get to the dirty areas, and finish".

Nice article, thanks for posting!

 

[ak90210]

where? please point that out.

leafs allow less shots from in close. about 5% less.

They allow 5 fewer inside shots per 100 shots but because they allow so many total shots they average about 8.5% more total shots from in close.

The article says there have been 3901 shots from inside 20 feet this season, Leafs have allowed 141 shots from inside feet.

3901 shots/30 teams =130.03 shots inside 20 feet per team.

 

[mikebel111*]

They allow 5 fewer inside shots per 100 shots but because they allow so many total shots they average about 8.5% more total shots from in close.

The article says there have been 3901 shots from inside 20 feet this season, Leafs have allowed 141 shots from inside feet.

3901 shots/30 teams =130.03 shots inside 20 feet per team.

well yes. It's not a big problem though. As long as they allow shots from the outside, I could care less.

 

[Deebo]

They allow 5 fewer inside shots per 100 shots but because they allow so many total shots they average about 8.5% more total shots from in close.

The article says there have been 3901 shots from inside 20 feet this season, Leafs have allowed 141 shots from inside feet.

3901 shots/30 teams =130.03 shots inside 20 feet per team.

That translates to less than 1 shot per game on average.

 

[HarrisonFord]

The biggest stand-out to me is the difference between Leafs shots inside 20 feet compared to the rest of the league:

League average (shots per team inside 20 feet): 305
Leafs (shots inside of 20 feet): 141
We allow 54% LESS shots inside of 20 feet. That's huge.

 

[anderson3133]

They allow 5 fewer inside shots per 100 shots but because they allow so many total shots they average about 8.5% more total shots from in close.

The article says there have been 3901 shots from inside 20 feet this season, Leafs have allowed 141 shots from inside feet.

3901 shots/30 teams =130.03 shots inside 20 feet per team.

You're assuming all teams have played the same amount of games. This early in the season a one game difference equates to a 6.67% difference, meaning the number you gave might not be totally organic.

 

[ak90210]

From the article:

"League-wide, 30 per cent of all shots on net come from 20 feet in (3,901 of 13,065). But Leaf opponents only manage to take 25 per cent of their shots on goal from in close (141 of 553)."

3901/30 teams = 130 shots from within 20 feet per team.

Leafs have allowed 141, which is 8.5% (or 11 shots) more than 130.

But the better way to phrase it is: The Leafs allow less than one shot per game more than the average team from within 20 feet.

In other words, it's pretty much inconsequential.

P.S: The reason our ratio of <20ft shots is 5% lower than the average is because our percentage of shots allowed from >20ft is 5% more than the average.

No it is significant because giving up 8.5% more shots from an area means you're likely to give up 8.5% more goals from there. Giving up 8.5% more goals from the prime scoring area will make a significant difference over the course of a season.

That's also 8.5 from average not 8.5 from good.

 

[Diatomic]

I'm all for shot quality but when we go 6-8minutes without a shot on goal or periods where we get less than 5 shots on goal, that's not a good scenario and something I really don't like at all.

 

[anderson3133]

No it is significant because giving up 8.5% more shots from an area means you're likely to give up 8.5% more goals from there. Giving up 8.5% more goals from the prime scoring area will make a significant difference over the course of a season.

That's also 8.5 from average not 8.5 from good.

Assuming we have league average goaltending.

In your points you are missing a lot of crucial information, like weight-adjusted averages.

 

[ak90210]

You're assuming all teams have played the same amount of games. This early in the season a one game difference equates to a 6.67% difference, meaning the number you gave might not be totally organic.

That is a good point I forgot about that but I looked it up and by coincidence the leafs have played the exact average number of games for a team this season.

 

[ak90210]

Assuming we have league average goaltending.

In your points you are missing a lot of crucial information, like weight-adjusted averages.

My point there was just that giving up 8.5% more shots from in close is bad even if it only adds up to 11 shots so far.