Speculation: Maple Leafs' busy offseason plans (all-encompassing Leafs thread)

[Martin Skoula]

Why would the Ducks, or any team, trade a player of the Manson level for a mid first? Lilgegren is a maybe prospect. (Imo) Leafs will need to add a prospect who is expected to be a player to 15OA to get a D man who can play top four minutes, be a defensive presence, and is mean.

The Leafs traded a pick in the 20s + 2 B prospects for the exact defenseman you described. 15 + Liljegren + more is an insane increase on the Muzzin price.

15 alone is worth almost the entire Muzzin package.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Why would the Ducks, or any team, trade a player of the Manson level for a mid first? Lilgegren is a maybe prospect. (Imo) Leafs will need to add a prospect who is expected to be a player to 15OA to get a D man who can play top four minutes, be a defensive presence, and is mean.
If Leafs don’t want to give up too much, Gudbranson would be a better target.

Ask all the Ducks fans who are fine with it.

 

[lwvs84]

Why would the Ducks, or any team, trade a player of the Manson level for a mid first? Lilgegren is a maybe prospect. (Imo) Leafs will need to add a prospect who is expected to be a player to 15OA to get a D man who can play top four minutes, be a defensive presence, and is mean.
If Leafs don’t want to give up too much, Gudbranson would be a better target.

Gubranson only has 1 year to UFA (and was acquired for basically nothing), Manson has 2 years. If the Ducks can get more than 15 and a decent prospect, they should definitely look at it. I'm not sure how many teams with higher picks would be willing to move it for Manson. I thought Liljegren had 2nd pair realistic upside. End of the day, it would depend on what Ducks scouts thought of the offer and what else is being offered for him.

 

[Fatass]

Ask all the Ducks fans who are fine with it.

Is a deal up to us fans or the GMs? It’s fun discussing trade ideas, but how many of the ones we propose come to fruition?
Imo Manson, because if the type of player he is, is very desired. That creates a higher cost. Like I suggested earlier, if the Leafs want a big, mean D man (not as good a hockey player though as Manson) they can pay less and get Gudbranson.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Is a deal up to us fans or the GMs? It’s fun discussing trade ideas, but how many of the ones we propose come to fruition?
Imo Manson, because if the type of player he is, is very desired. That creates a higher cost. Like I suggested earlier, if the Leafs want a big, mean D man (not as good a hockey player though as Manson) they can pay less and get Gudbranson.

Yes, you have your opinion. I look at the returns for defensemen who were dealt plus feedback from Ducks fans and draw a different conclusion. Considering fans usually overvalue their assets, I'm a lot more inclined to believe them if they find it reasonable.

 

[Fatass]

Yes, you have your opinion. I look at the returns for defensemen who were dealt plus feedback from Ducks fans and draw a different conclusion. Considering fans usually overvalue their assets, I'm a lot more inclined to believe them if they find it reasonable.

Hopefully we do get a trade like this. Then we can have fun hashing it out too.

 

[biotk]

It's just a simple regression. Ordinal Least Squares or OLS. When you run a regression, the statistical software tries to find the least variance in the outcome variable caused by each independent variable (which could be individual shot metrics, QoC, teammates, zone starts, etc).

Simple regression leads to the bullshit numbers you provided.

Every team in the NHL has an analytics department dude.

Yes they do. And why do they bother having expensive analytics departments? Because they understand that publicly available numbers are complete trash.

 

[bossram]

Simple regression leads to the bullshit numbers you provided.

Yes they do. And why do they bother having expensive analytics departments? Because they understand that publicly available numbers are complete trash.

Curious you ignored my question about how you're controlling for things then? In your head? Please explain to me exactly how you've weighted every single factor you would consider and apply that weighting consistently across every player in the NHL.

Could it be because you don't understand how to assess and weigh everything? Could it be because making a snap judgement in your head is bullshit? Stay tuned!

 

[seanlinden]

Wouldn’t teams prefer Sandin to Liljgren?

I'm sure they would... but the Leafs aren't going to part with their 2 best assets (including a defenceman they are really high on) for Josh Manson. Liljegren's a great prospect, but likely up for a change of scenery.

Plus, the Ducks poster said they needed a RHD.

 

[biotk]

Curious you ignored my question about how you're controlling for things then? In your head? Please explain to me exactly how you've weighted every single factor you would consider and apply that weighting consistently across every player in the NHL.

Could it be because you don't understand how to assess and weigh everything? Could it be because making a snap judgement in your head is bullshit? Stay tuned!

I don't need to control for them because I already know that it can't be done in any sort of way that would provide causation instead of bad correlations. If you actually understood how regression analysis works you would know this. No team is creating some kind of completely stupid RAPM because it is a ridiculous joke. All you have to do is look at the RAPM for Hughes and Tanev for this season to understand how mindnumbingly stupid and misleading it is. 99% of what it measures is simply measuring deployment, but people think it is measuring ability.

 

[lwvs84]

Plus, the Ducks poster said they needed a RHD.

Yup, Ducks have Lindholm, Fowler, Djoos, Mahura, Larsson, Guhle, etc. on the left who could be there long term through the rebuild. Manson and (possibly) Gubranson are the only ones on the right side, along with the guys they are signing out of Europe. The top d-men prospect the Ducks have who hasn't made it to the NHL/AHL is also LHD, but the prospects are too far away to determine if they'll be solid NHL'ers. The right side is very weak in terms of potential d-men that will be there through the rebuild/re-tool and effective after. If Lil can be a solid middle pairing guy, that would be a huge trade (especially if the Ducks can hit a home run on another pick they get from the Leafs).

 

[DavidBL]

Imo Ducks fans are divided on moving Manson. Some think the Ducks should sell nearly anyone we can move. Manson plays a pivotal role for the Duck and has no clear replacement. I for one see no reason to trade him for anything less then a legit top 6 forward. Not a potential one or a pick who might be 1 in 5 years. If he is not returning that, ita fine. He'll stay a Duck. We aren't desperate for picks or prospects or middle depth talent. 15th might be fair value but its not enough for the Ducks. You'll have to look elsewhere if that's all you want to give up. IMO. Just don't assume all Ducks fans are happy with that kind of return.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Because while not the shiny new toy and top 10-15 prospect Sandin is he's a damn good prospect. D men with his skating that perform like him in the AHL at U21 tend to turn out well

Shhhhhh don't tell everyone..

 

[lwvs84]

Imo Ducks fans are divided on moving Manson. Some think the Ducks should sell nearly anyone we can move. Manson plays a pivotal role for the Duck and has no clear replacement. I for one see no reason to trade him for anything less then a legit top 6 forward. Not a potential one or a pick who might be 1 in 5 years. If he is not returning that, ita fine. He'll stay a Duck. We aren't desperate for picks or prospects or middle depth talent. 15th might be fair value but its not enough for the Ducks. You'll have to look elsewhere if that's all you want to give up. IMO. Just don't assume all Ducks fans are happy with that kind of return.

That's true, I'm torn on trading him. He's one of my favorite players on the team, but the Ducks need to do something. They can't wait around to be gifted a top pick in a good draft and there really aren't good players with high value to trade off outside of Manson and Rakell. 15+Lilj seemed to be the most agreed upon trade, but if the Ducks end up keeping Manson I won't be unhappy about it. I guess it really depends on what kind of player Liljgren would be, he's 21 so he shouldn't be far away from NHL ready. The Ducks definitely shouldn't trade away every vet, shelter the kids as much as possible but get value from some of the players while they can.

 

[bossram]

I don't need to control for them because I already know that it can't be done in any sort of way that would provide causation instead of bad correlations. If you actually understood how regression analysis works you would know this. No team is creating some kind of completely stupid RAPM because it is a ridiculous joke. All you have to do is look at the RAPM for Hughes and Tanev for this season to understand how mindnumbingly stupid and misleading it is. 99% of what it measures is simply measuring deployment, but people think it is measuring ability.

You didn't answer the question how you evaluate players mentally. And apply however you do that consistently.

And I'm not sure how you don't know that teams are developing metrics similar to RAPM.

 

[Fatass]

Imo Ducks fans are divided on moving Manson. Some think the Ducks should sell nearly anyone we can move. Manson plays a pivotal role for the Duck and has no clear replacement. I for one see no reason to trade him for anything less then a legit top 6 forward. Not a potential one or a pick who might be 1 in 5 years. If he is not returning that, ita fine. He'll stay a Duck. We aren't desperate for picks or prospects or middle depth talent. 15th might be fair value but its not enough for the Ducks. You'll have to look elsewhere if that's all you want to give up. IMO. Just don't assume all Ducks fans are happy with that kind of return.

If the Ducks GM is trading a big tough
D man it’s going to be Gudbranson. Especially if the offer is a hopeful pick, and a prospect that may or may not be an NHL player.

 

[biotk]

If the Ducks GM is trading a big tough
D man it’s going to be Gudbranson. Especially if the offer is a hopeful pick, and a prospect that may or may not be an NHL player.

Cool. It is extremely doubtful they are trading with Toronto then.

 

[Stephen]

Cool. It is extremely doubtful they are trading with Toronto then.

If Anaheim retained 50% salary and added a pick it could work. Maybe.

 

[biotk]

You didn't answer the question how you evaluate players mentally. And apply however you do that consistently.

I evaluate players how everyone who actually evaluates players does so. I understand hockey and I watch them play. I only ever give an assessment about players who I have watched - and I mean actually watched. If they are not on my team (and generally even if they are on my team) I will watch them play (generally) 2 - 6 games where I am watching them, and essentially only them. I would never be so arrogant and deluded to think that I can evaluate a player by looking at some ridiculous graphs, built from flawed algorithms that are themselves built of poorly tracked data.

You are not evaluating players at all.

And I'm not sure how you don't know that teams are developing metrics similar to RAPM.

Because the metrics are completely stupid and useless. No team would ever think of using something that gives such bad information. Any team built in such ways would be a lottery team every year. Nor is a team ever looking for a player with ________ RAPM xGA, or xGA, or CF% or whatever. What teams are looking for is players who are likely to fit into their systems in the role they are looking to fill. Their analytics, which are equivalent of comparing a super computer to a toaster (your analytics) measure far more important things including various microstats, will help to getting a broader range of potential candidates but after that talking to their scouts and watching tape is what is important.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Is a deal up to us fans or the GMs? It’s fun discussing trade ideas, but how many of the ones we propose come to fruition?
Imo Manson, because if the type of player he is, is very desired. That creates a higher cost. Like I suggested earlier, if the Leafs want a big, mean D man (not as good a hockey player though as Manson) they can pay less and get Gudbranson.

It is up to the GMs. Yes, they could pay less and get Gudbranson. There can be no argument there.

 

[biotk]

If Anaheim retained 50% salary and added a pick it could work. Maybe.

Liljegren and 15OA for one year of Gudbranson (50% retained)? I would hope not.

 

[Stephen]

Liljegren and 15OA for one year of Gudbranson (50% retained)? I would hope not.

Oh no. For me it would be like Gudbranson at 25-50% retained and a 2nd round pick for a 5th round pick back to Anaheim kind of thing.

 

[biotk]

Oh no. For me it would be like Gudbranson at 25-50% retained and a 2nd round pick for a 5th round pick back to Anaheim kind of thing.

That is what I figured. LL was proposing Liljegren and 15 OA for Gudbranson - a player that Anaheim obtained last fall for a 7th and a 29-year-old who's (occasional) days as an NHL 4th liner were over.

 

[Martin Skoula]

That is what I figured. LL was proposing Liljegren and 15 OA for Gudbranson - a player that Anaheim obtained last fall for a 7th and a 29-year-old who's (occasional) days as an NHL 4th liner were over.

If defensemen are returning picks in the teens + bluechip prospects for being big, we should be on the other side of that transaction. Holl and Marincin would be tough to let go, but if you're gonna twist my arm and give me #16 for them I guess we can work something out.

 

[Stephen]

That is what I figured. LL was proposing Liljegren and 15 OA for Gudbranson - a player that Anaheim obtained last fall for a 7th and a 29-year-old who's (occasional) days as an NHL 4th liner were over.

Oh yeah, that's outrageous. I could see Gudbranson being useful, but along those Bogosian Schenn lines, and those guys were dumpster dives. Best of luck to Anaheim in their future endeavors.