Makar vs Fox

[Northern Avs Fan]

You'd be wrong then. I can look up stats on a stat sheet like all of you can, and then pretend to be an expert. I think it makes more sense to ask a question that can be answered by fans of the team that watch him play every game. Thats one of the benefits of this website where fans from different teams can provide context that might not be available to someone who doesn't watch most games a team plays. I didn't mean it as a criticism. I was genuinely asking a question. I don't know why it should be confusing. Either he was a PK'er or he wasn't. It's not a complicated question to answer, and I don't know why you have an adverse reaction to that question. You don't need to try to sell Makar to me. I'm asking a question, not criticizing him.



You are making the point for me. It's become a hipster viewpoint to think killing penalties is for the bottom half of the roster and the power play is for the top half of the roster. It's the same type of thing with face-offs, goaltending, and we'll eventually get people saying defense doesn't matter. We already have people who say that being good on the PP shouldn't matter towards evaluating a player, and I'm sure the same would apply towards being good on the PK for the people who say all that matters is ES results.

Why can't a top player PK? Statistically speaking, it'd make a lot of sense. Goals are more likely to happen during a situation where one team has less players than the other team. You should want your best players on the ice in a situation that is more consequential towards goals being scored.

You mention how there's more to the game than points, but then you openly undermine that viewpoint by suggesting that the bad players can kill the penalties. I guess you believe a top player is too good for that lowly task. Do you also not care about defense? Face-offs? Goaltending? Are all of those also unimportant parts of the game?

Apologies if you were genuinely asking. As others pointed out he plays PK2.

Face-offs are important situationally, but I don’t believe teams have to be great at face-offs to be a good team.

In terms of the PK’ing. Particularly with forwards I wouldn’t play my top guys on the PK. The forwards have to do a lot of skating and pressuring and I just think they can provide more value using those minutes at 5v5.

 

[Regal]

You'd be wrong then. I can look up stats on a stat sheet like all of you can, and then pretend to be an expert. I think it makes more sense to ask a question that can be answered by fans of the team that watch him play every game. Thats one of the benefits of this website where fans from different teams can provide context that might not be available to someone who doesn't watch most games a team plays. I didn't mean it as a criticism. I was genuinely asking a question. I don't know why it should be confusing. Either he was a PK'er or he wasn't. It's not a complicated question to answer, and I don't know why you have an adverse reaction to that question. You don't need to try to sell Makar to me. I'm asking a question, not criticizing him.



You are making the point for me. It's become a hipster viewpoint to think killing penalties is for the bottom half of the roster and the power play is for the top half of the roster. It's the same type of thing with face-offs, goaltending, and we'll eventually get people saying defense doesn't matter. We already have people who say that being good on the PP shouldn't matter towards evaluating a player, and I'm sure the same would apply towards being good on the PK for the people who say all that matters is ES results.

Why can't a top player PK? Statistically speaking, it'd make a lot of sense. Goals are more likely to happen during a situation where one team has less players than the other team. You should want your best players on the ice in a situation that is more consequential towards goals being scored.

You mention how there's more to the game than points, but then you openly undermine that viewpoint by suggesting that the bad players can kill the penalties. I guess you believe a top player is too good for that lowly task. Do you also not care about defense? Face-offs? Goaltending? Are all of those also unimportant parts of the game?

Just because it's more likely that you'll get scored on while on the PK doesn't mean that your best players will have a significant effect on goals against if they play there rather than 5v5, because most of these players have a greater relative effect at 5v5.

Take Fox for example. The Rangers GA/60 at 5v5 with him on the ice this year was 1.95 and with him off it was 2.60. He improved it by 0.65 GA/60 or 33%. The Rangers GA/60 on the PK with Fox on the ice was 5.43 GA/60 and without him it was 6.50. He improved it by 1.07 GA/60 or 20%. Now, Fox spent 142:46 on the PK this year. If he didn't play any of that time, and instead the Rangers continued to let in goals at their 6.50 GA/60 without him, that means the team would have let up 2.6 more goals. Now, if Fox instead played those minutes at 5v5, the team would give up 1.5 fewer goals in those minutes, meaning in terms of goals against, Fox replacing his PK minutes with 5v5 minutes should result in roughly 1 more goal against for the Rangers. That hardly seems like something worth getting worked up about, especially when there's a greater likelihood of someone being hurt on the PK.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

You need to ask coaches this question last season Fox spent 2:36 on the PK per game the season before it was a mere 7 seconds.

For Makar it was 0:06 and then :55 this year but I doubt the Avs coach is going to change his PK rotation just to satisfy anyone’s criteria for Norris voting on HF boards here.

This isn’t an EK/ Doughty separation going on here both Makar and Fox are very good 200 foot players but Makar really is not only much more dynamic (eye test) but his possession stats also back that up so he really does tilt the ice.

You shouldn't be thinking this is all about Makar and Fox. While thats the main topic of the thread, a secondary discussion about the importance penalty kill doesn't have to be a contest between Makar and Fox. I happen to think they should both be playing that role regularly for their teams, and there's no reason for a discussion about who is better in that regard. But at the same time, I think it needs to be acknowledged that it's very hard to win a top defensemen contest when you don't PK, at least in my book.

As to Fox specifically because thats what I can speak to better than most people, Fox is the Rangers best PK'er. It's not even close. The Rangers PK instantly got better when they put him on it. His hockey sense kills the zone about once per PK because he can anticipate the decisions the other team makes. I have no clue why in such a consequential situation someone would instead want some big plug who runs around and body slams players. I think it's a fundamental misunderstanding of what yields success on the PK.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Just because it's more likely that you'll get scored on while on the PK doesn't mean that your best players will have a significant effect on goals against if they play there rather than 5v5, because most of these players have a greater relative effect at 5v5.

Take Fox for example. The Rangers GA/60 at 5v5 with him on the ice this year was 1.95 and with him off it was 2.60. He improved it by 0.65 GA/60 or 33%. The Rangers GA/60 on the PK with Fox on the ice was 5.43 GA/60 and without him it was 6.50. He improved it by 1.07 GA/60 or 20%. Now, Fox spent 142:46 on the PK this year. If he didn't play any of that time, and instead the Rangers continued to let in goals at their 6.50 GA/60 without him, that means the team would have let up 2.6 more goals. Now, if Fox instead played those minutes at 5v5, the team would give up 1.5 fewer goals in those minutes, meaning in terms of goals against, Fox replacing his PK minutes with 5v5 minutes should result in roughly 1 more goal against for the Rangers. That hardly seems like something worth getting worked up about, especially when there's a greater likelihood of someone being hurt on the PK.

I appreciate the statistical work, but you made my point for me. There's a greater impact for a top player who should be able to influence the on-ice results by playing the PK than if they instead were the first shift after the PK. I don't know that anyone is getting worked up about this, but when people say stuff like top players are better used conserving their energy or the penalty kill is better served for guys at the bottom of the roster, you proved that a team should gain results on-ice by playing their best players on the PK.

Getting hurt can happen in any situation. While it's true that a player probably has a greater chance to get hurt killing penalties, I'm not sure the degree of risk is so much more than another situation that you'd decide to sacrifice results for the chance that the player doesn't get hurt. You can also get hurt being out for the final minute or two of a game on a 6 on 5 where you need to play goalie, and dive in front of pucks shot towards the empty net. The average penalty killer doesn't even get hurt to the degree of missing time during the course of a season. It's not a high risk.

 

[avsfan9]

I appreciate the statistical work, but you made my point for me. There's a greater impact for a top player who should be able to influence the on-ice results by playing the PK than if they instead were the first shift after the PK. I don't know that anyone is getting worked up about this, but when people say stuff like top players are better used conserving their energy or the penalty kill is better served for guys at the bottom of the roster, you proved that a team should gain results on-ice by playing their best players on the PK.

Getting hurt can happen in any situation. While it's true that a player probably has a greater chance to get hurt killing penalties, I'm not sure the degree of risk is so much more than another situation that you'd decide to sacrifice results for the chance that the player doesn't get hurt. You can also get hurt being out for the final minute or two of a game on a 6 on 5 where you need to play goalie, and dive in front of pucks shot towards the empty net. The average penalty killer doesn't even get hurt to the degree of missing time during the course of a season. It's not a high risk.

So by your line of thought the avs should put Mackinnon, Rantanan, Makar and Toews out on the pk.

 

[wetcoast]

You shouldn't be thinking this is all about Makar and Fox. While thats the main topic of the thread, a secondary discussion about the importance penalty kill doesn't have to be a contest between Makar and Fox. I happen to think they should both be playing that role regularly for their teams, and there's no reason for a discussion about who is better in that regard. But at the same time, I think it needs to be acknowledged that it's very hard to win a top defensemen contest when you don't PK, at least in my book.

As to Fox specifically because thats what I can speak to better than most people, Fox is the Rangers best PK'er. It's not even close. The Rangers PK instantly got better when they put him on it. His hockey sense kills the zone about once per PK because he can anticipate the decisions the other team makes. I have no clue why in such a consequential situation someone would instead want some big plug who runs around and body slams players. I think it's a fundamental misunderstanding of what yields success on the PK.

While I think you make some good points, most NHL coaches do the opposite of what you are pointing out here and game management is something coaches control not players.

Like someone pointed out when Makar does play the PK he excels at it as well and the thread is about him and Fox.

Despite Fox winning the Norris Makar IMO still has a sizeable gap on Fox and I think he is the best Dman in the NHL right now as he just is a possession monster that tilts the ice plain and simple.

 

[Kupo]

As a Rangers fan, I have no issues at all with Makar getting the lions shares of the votes. He’s a freak. And pretty much as deserving as Fox for the Norris. They were #1 + #2 this season.

 

[Machinehead]

So by your line of thought the avs should put Mackinnon, Rantanan, Makar and Toews out on the pk.

MacKinnon, yes.

That would be amazing.

 

[Regal]

I appreciate the statistical work, but you made my point for me. There's a greater impact for a top player who should be able to influence the on-ice results by playing the PK than if they instead were the first shift after the PK. I don't know that anyone is getting worked up about this, but when people say stuff like top players are better used conserving their energy or the penalty kill is better served for guys at the bottom of the roster, you proved that a team should gain results on-ice by playing their best players on the PK.

Getting hurt can happen in any situation. While it's true that a player probably has a greater chance to get hurt killing penalties, I'm not sure the degree of risk is so much more than another situation that you'd decide to sacrifice results for the chance that the player doesn't get hurt. You can also get hurt being out for the final minute or two of a game on a 6 on 5 where you need to play goalie, and dive in front of pucks shot towards the empty net. The average penalty killer doesn't even get hurt to the degree of missing time during the course of a season. It's not a high risk.

That impact is only defensively though. The overall impact in terms of goal differential is typically greater for the best players to be playing 5v5, because the difference between their offensive impact 5v5 and a replacement player is almost always greater than their defensive impact on the PK and a replacement player. This wasn't the case for Fox this season because the Rangers scored a ridiculous number of shorthanded goals with him on the ice and somehow had a 2.7 GF/60 on the PK. That's likely unsustainable though.

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

So by your line of thought the avs should put Mackinnon, Rantanan, Makar and Toews out on the pk.

MacKinnon would be amazing on the PK. His speed would have the other team completely flustered the whole time and he would probably generate tons of shorthanded changes. You obviously don't want him out there blocking shots with his face or anything, but to have a player with his speed and power on the PK would be awesome.

 

[TGWL]

All Ranger fans say Fox. Everyone else will say Makar.

That's not true. Everybody knows how good Makar was/is, including us NYR fans. Fox had a great season. We're happy with him. I don't quite understand how fans need to put Fox down just because he's not flashy or as talented as Makar. Anytime Fox is mentioned we need to hear about how Makar is better and should've won the Norris, or how Fox isn't a top 3 defensemen. You'll find very few NYR fans running around, pounding their chest, screaming on about Fox being the best defensemen in the NHL. He won a Norris, and yes, a lot of us felt that was extremely deserving with how he played this season. Every season is different and every team is different. We've seen defensemen being nominated for a Norris in one season and not be a top 5 the next. We don't know if Fox is going to stay a Norris nominated defensemen next season, but we're thrilled to have a player that smart on the rink.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

That impact is only defensively though. The overall impact in terms of goal differential is typically greater for the best players to be playing 5v5, because the difference between their offensive impact 5v5 and a replacement player is almost always greater than their defensive impact on the PK and a replacement player. This wasn't the case for Fox this season because the Rangers scored a ridiculous number of shorthanded goals with him on the ice and somehow had a 2.7 GF/60 on the PK. That's likely unsustainable though.

The only way to measure that is to measure the 2 minutes during the penalty and two minutes after. While I agree that it’s easier statistically in a vacuum to have a greater 5 on 5 impact in pure goal differential than PK, that’s not what should be measured. It’s not a situation where they can only play 5 on 5 or PK. It’s about that stretch of the game where the options are playing PK or not doing so and playing right after the PK.

 

[Ignite111]

That's not true. Everybody knows how good Makar was/is, including us NYR fans. Fox had a great season. We're happy with him. I don't quite understand how fans need to put Fox down just because he's not flashy or as talented as Makar. Anytime Fox is mentioned we need to hear about how Makar is better and should've won the Norris, or how Fox isn't a top 3 defensemen. You'll find very few NYR fans running around, pounding their chest, screaming on about Fox being the best defensemen in the NHL. He won a Norris, and yes, a lot of us felt that was extremely deserving with how he played this season. Every season is different and every team is different. We've seen defensemen being nominated for a Norris in one season and not be a top 5 the next. We don't know if Fox is going to stay a Norris nominated defensemen next season, but we're thrilled to have a player that smart on the rink.

I am not putting Fox down. I think Fox is great, and one of the best in the league. My statement is how Ranger fans will vote for their player no matter the poll question.

Now for the Norris I don’t why it keeps getting brought up to me. As you said it’s year to year and players could win without being the best overall defenseman. I think you are right and I also think Fox was deserving of it this year. With that being said I think Makar would have won it if he played the full season.

Now again the poll question is not who should have won the Norris. It was who do you take? Which means if you had to pick one of the two who would it be. If everyone here was a GM of their own team and was able to pick the two I think this this poll would be even more lopsided than it already is with Ranger fans actually agreeing he is the better player.

So no I am not putting him down. I do think you should be happy with him as he is great. I am excited for him to represent the US in the next olympics.

What I ask you is if you are the GM of let’s say Seattle next year and would have the ability to pick Fox or Makar who are you actually picking?

 

[DrDangles]

Slight edge to Makar for me because he's the best skater I've seen since Karlsson

 

[TGWL]

I am not putting Fox down. I think Fox is great, and one of the best in the league. My statement is how Ranger fans will vote for their player no matter the poll question.

Now for the Norris I don’t why it keeps getting brought up to me. As you said it’s year to year and players could win without being the best overall defenseman. I think you are right and I also think Fox was deserving of it this year. With that being said I think Makar would have won it if he played the full season.

Now again the poll question is not who should have won the Norris. It was who do you take? Which means if you had to pick one of the two who would it be. If everyone here was a GM of their own team and was able to pick the two I think this this poll would be even more lopsided than it already is with Ranger fans actually agreeing he is the better player.

So no I am not putting him down. I do think you should be happy with him as he is great. I am excited for him to represent the US in the next olympics.

What I ask you is if you are the GM of let’s say Seattle next year and would have the ability to pick Fox or Makar who are you actually picking?

I'm a NYR fan. I gave it to Makar and I love the way Fox has played for us.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Will be interesting to see if Fox has an equally impressive year next season.

Makar looks like a PPG Dman going forward with a solid overall game, both in the regular season and playoffs. That is incredibly rare.

 

[avsfan9]

Bump because of generational Makar thread. I don’t think much has changed since July

 

[McFlash97]

This is a tough vote, but I think Makar will be the best offensive DMan in the league, with at least a decent defensive game. Fox will be more Hedman-esque maybe, elite both ways but not the best at either.

If both live up to that, then I think Makar is more valuable

Fox is 5'10 with an average defensive game. this analysis couldn't be more incorrect.

 

[Lays]

Fox is 5'10 with an average defensive game. this analysis couldn't be more incorrect.

You have to be trolling? 5’11* with the best defensive numbers last season. Played harder minutes than any defenseman, led defenseman in takeaways, and was in the top percentile for penalty killers. Fox is elite defensively and better offensively and defensively than the guy your team just signed for 9 million dollars. People still think Fox is an offensive defenseman when his defensive game is better than his offensive game and has been since he entered the league. Anyone who actually watches him will say the same

Did you even watch Fox or did you just look at his stats and size and assimilate him to Barrie?

 

[Kocur Dill]

This is the next generation of Doughty vs. Karlsson eh

Housley/Coffee vs Bourque/MacInnis

 

[FLHabs]

I'm just going to leave this here hehe, 40+ min of highlights for each players (big ups to this guys channel btw, funny he only has these 2 videos haha)



VS



That should help this poll, feel free to add these to the OP

 

[Kupo]

I'm just going to leave this here hehe, 40+ min of highlights for each players (big ups to this guys channel btw, funny he only has these 2 videos haha)



VS



That should help this poll, feel free to add these to the OP

The amount of chances both guys generated that didn’t result in a goal is insane.

 

[FLHabs]

The amount of chances both guys generated that didn’t result in a goal is insane.

Makar might be more dynamic, but yea any team in the league would be very happy with either one of these guys on their roster

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Fox is 5'10 with an average defensive game. this analysis couldn't be more incorrect.

I think you got that wrong. 5’10 with a bad defensive game.