News Article: Looking Back on the Maple Leafs Playoff Woes

[The Iceman]

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People are mentioning ‘Bad luck’ but that term doesn’t even begin to describe it, a stronger word is needed. What are the odds of Tavares falling a second before Perry’s knee hit his head? How the f*** did 2 phantom high sticks get called against us in the 3rd period of game 6 against Tampa. I could go on all day, It is astounding that this team hasn’t won a playoff series.

We can also look at the total shots on net Leafs have taken in clinching OT games vs shots against

It is staggering (Help me with the stats someone)

 

[The Iceman]

The only plausible explanation would appear to be black magic.

Easy solution...pyramid power.
Pyramid scheme paid off for 1976 Maple Leafs

 

[kevsh]

This has been debated to death, but looking at just one part of the problem (forward depth) as illustrated in last year's series against the Bolts.

The entire bottom six forwards combined for 3 non-EN goals in 7 games. Two from Kampf, one from Blackwell.

Tampa on the other hand, over the course of the playoffs, got 6G from Perry, 5 from Colton, 5 from Paul, 4 from Maroon, plus 2 each from Hagel/Bellemare. That's 24 goals combined in 23 games.

When half of your cap space is spent on 4 forwards, even if they produce in the playoffs (as Toronto's did) it's not enough to overcome the lack of scoring in the bottom 6. This has been the story since Kadri was shipped out and the Leafs bottom two lines have only gotten shallower and less productive.

Looking ahead to this year there's no reason to believe that trend won't continue.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Doesn’t make it untrue

Doesn't make what untrue?

 

[zeke]

This has been debated to death, but looking at just one part of the problem (forward depth) as illustrated in last year's series against the Bolts.

The entire bottom six forwards combined for 3 non-EN goals in 7 games. Two from Kampf, one from Blackwell.

Tampa on the other hand, over the course of the playoffs, got 6G from Perry, 5 from Colton, 5 from Paul, 4 from Maroon, plus 2 each from Hagel/Bellemare. That's 24 goals combined in 23 games.

When half of your cap space is spent on 4 forwards, even if they produce in the playoffs (as Toronto's did) it's not enough to overcome the lack of scoring in the bottom 6. This has been the story since Kadri was shipped out and the Leafs bottom two lines have only gotten shallower and less productive.

Looking ahead to this year there's no reason to believe that trend won't continue.

That's the funny thing - leafs' bottom 6 scored 5 goals in 7gms that series, a 60gl pace - which is exactly the kind of production you want to get from your bottom 6.

But Tampa's bottom 5 explodes for 10 goals in 7gms that series, a 120gl pace,
which is way more than any team can reasonably expect from their bottom 6. Of course, they didn't keep that up and scored 14gls in the remaining 16gms. Still a very good 70gl pace from the bottom 6 but not close to what they did against us.

And of course the Avs' bottom 6 scored 14gls in 20gms, just under a 60gl pace, same as us.


So the question is - how did we let tampa's bottom 6 score 10 goals on us? Especially given that we completely shut down their top 6?

 

[Nineteen67]

Wasn't he hurt?

In game 7 against the Leafs he was hurt bad and tried to play in the final but just couldn’t. He has that mentality and desire to win and it’s no accident he has two rings.

 

[kb]

In game 7 against the Leafs he was hurt bad and tried to play in the final but just couldn’t. He has that mentality and desire to win and it’s no accident he has two rings.

Oh definitely. The Leafs players would have bailed. Because you all say so.

 

[capfit9]

Doesn't make what untrue?

I think the spectrum is real

 

[Leaf Fans]

I think the spectrum is real

Good for you. Irrelevant, but that is what you think.

 

[kevsh]

leafs' bottom 6 scored 5 goals in 7gms that series

You chose to include the 2 EN goals by Mikheyev, I did not which obviously skews the math in both directions depending on which argument you want to make. The fact that the Bolts bottom 6 over-achieved is entirely the point I was trying to make. They managed to bring in the guys that can make a difference while the Leafs cannot, in big part due to their top guys taking so much cap space.

Regardless, we have seen an overall trend that late in a series this team, all of them regardless of what line they play on, cannot buy a goal. As the games tighten up defensively the Leafs stop scoring, and that is why it's so critical to have scoring depth. For the Bolts, they have guys that deliver goals when they need them, the Leafs do not.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Arbitrary as a sole measure in determining value.

(Why am I agreeing with Dekes? Oh, yeah, 'cause he's right this time.)

Who measures a player on "a sole" anything? Sakic did all kinds of great things. Same with a lot of players I mentioned.

What's so difficult for some people is that we're talking about wins. Overtime winning goal. Game winning goals. A great play on a game winning goal.

It just irks some people because it doesn't jive with their narrative.

Don't worry. Marner/Matthews/Nylander/Tavares will have a playing career long after Dubas is gone. They might catch up to Lanny, Gartner, etc.

 

[tmlms13]

2017: Fair, first season of the big 3 (all rookies) every game decided in OT and took the president's trophy winner to 6 games a year after finishing dead last.

2018: Fair, last season before they get Tavares. They weren't favourites heading into that series against the Bruins and had a 4-3 lead going into the 3rd period of game 7. 2nd season for the big 3.

2019: The Leafs were up 3-2 against the Bruins heading into game 6 on home ice, while they weren't the betting favourites for that series, they choked that. First time the core had a chance to win a series before the 7th game, they didn't. Tavares' first season with the team. Bruins lost in game 7 of the SCF that year to the Blues.

2020: Covid season, that same Jackets team upset the Bolts a season prior but the Leafs still should've won. They were the favourites.

2021: Regardless if they didn't have Tavares for the rest of the series after game 1, they were up 3-1 with two games on home ice to put away the Habs, they choked again.

2022: Similar to 2019, up 3-2 against a team that eventually lost in the finals. I wouldn't call it an upset when everybody on the main boards voted for the Bolts to win the series but they still choked their 3-2 lead.

The core of this team let's their foot off the gas once they're a game away from clinching, which trickles down. It's the first to four wins in a series not first to 3 and then relax.

To me it doesn't matter how you got there in terms of game by game. It's the start vs end. If in 2022 they went down 0-3 and lost in game 7 would that change how you feel? And my point is in 2022, Toronto vs TB was like playing the 3rd round in the first round.

Before Game 1 they were only big favorites in 1 series, the Montreal one. Where they lost their Captain and third best forward less than 1 period into the series.

 

[andora]

You chose to include the 2 EN goals by Mikheyev, I did not which obviously skews the math in both directions depending on which argument you want to make. The fact that the Bolts bottom 6 over-achieved is entirely the point I was trying to make. They managed to bring in the guys that can make a difference while the Leafs cannot, in big part due to their top guys taking so much cap space.

Regardless, we have seen an overall trend that late in a series this team, all of them regardless of what line they play on, cannot buy a goal. As the games tighten up defensively the Leafs stop scoring, and that is why it's so critical to have scoring depth. For the Bolts, they have guys that deliver goals when they need them, the Leafs do not.

To be fair.. tanpa had a head start on those picks coming up and plugging in their depth which also allows you to trade picks for others

We were dry for awhile and guys are just about taking form.. in theory the tenplate is there for names sake but robertaon steeves holmberg etc to in theory provide the homegrown support that tanpa has got

Some just better pan out to be players thats all.. if we can get into the rotation of pumping a forward out of the farm once every 12 to 18 months then we are cooking

Then trading picka here or there becomes easier even though dubas did that step first which is one of my biggest gripes.. but in theory it is coming

 

[Byron Bitz]

The Leafs win the MTL series 9 times out of 10. The Habs had a horseshoe up their ass to win that series.

 

[Nineteen67]

Oh definitely. The Leafs players would have bailed. Because we all see so.

Certainly a factor as to why the Leafs have no Cups.

 

[kb]

Seeing eye dog?

Outshoot, outscore, and lose by 1 goal to the 2 time defending champs who go to the finals.

Yup, they quit.

 

[Nineteen67]

Seeing eye dog?

Outshoot, outscore, and lose by 1 goal to the 2 time defending champs who go to the finals.

Yup, they quit.

You’re saying they quit?

 

[andora]

They need to outwork teams consistently through games and from game to game. That means different things to different people.. but end of they day you need to outwork the other team relentlessly.. skill comes through with the work

The hardest i saw marner work againdt tampa.. or sorry .. for the group with their hackles already up - the play that stood out in memory of marner actually working was a point where leafs werent getting calls, he was clearly frustrated with the puck in the corner, he took it engaged with a player made a move drew a call

That.. work your f***en asses off

 

[notDatsyuk]

No. That's my point though. A top heavy salaried structured team doesn't need to be. Unsung heroes sometimes can be in the lower tier of salary.

All I'm saying is that your argument would make more sense considering the time frame, if you had used "top three salary" rather than "11M".

For example, in 1986-87, when both Anderson and McDonald were playing, the average salary was $160K, which meant a team carrying 25 players had a TOTAL salary of $4M.

Those darn facts. I thought Point looked like a decent 3rd liner against the Leafs.

But you have to admit that Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares and Rielly make one h*ll of a third line.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Who measures a player on "a sole" anything? Sakic did all kinds of great things. Same with a lot of players I mentioned.

What's so difficult for some people is that we're talking about wins. Overtime winning goal. Game winning goals. A great play on a game winning goal.

It just irks some people because it doesn't jive with their narrative.

Don't worry. Marner/Matthews/Nylander/Tavares will have a playing career long after Dubas is gone. They might catch up to Lanny, Gartner, etc.

It looked like that was what you were doing in that particular post, which is why it was called 'arbitrary'.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

All I'm saying is that your argument would make more sense considering the time frame, if you had used "top three salary" rather than "11M".

For example, in 1986-87, when both Anderson and McDonald were playing, the average salary was $160K, which meant a team carrying 25 players had a TOTAL salary of $4M.


But you have to admit that Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares and Rielly make one h*ll of a third line.

No I don't need to go through that exercise to strengthen my argument. Shanny/Dubas keep supporting it season after season.

 

[hobarth]

I love watching Marner PK, he's great at it, I wonder why Matthews and Nylander don't also PK. The PP is a special team where special players are expected to thrive, PKing also needs special players.

During the playoffs Marner's PKing was again outstanding, he can make other team's PP look poor/ineffective, where is that Marner 5v5 during the playoffs. For me, during the playoffs 5v5 Marner disappears becomes maddeningly ordinary, especially at crucial times.

Matthews seems to be taking refuse in his new found defensive prowess, at crunch time his offensive dominance becomes significantly less conspicuous during the playoffs.

It seems obvious to me that Nylander and Tavares aren't totally compatible as linemates, Marner and JT looked good together in the past, JT had a great year when they played together yet Keefe never reunites them, instead he demotes Nylander, senseless.

 

[notDatsyuk]

No I don't need to go through that exercise to strengthen my argument. Shanny/Dubas keep supporting it season after season.

I completely agree with your point, but just pointing out that '11M' is meaningless when discussing players from the '80s.

 

[Uncus13]

Lets See

2017: Lost as the 8 seed to the 1 seed
2018: Lost a road Game 7, with a key player getting suspended
2019: Exact same as 2018,
2020: Lost a 5 game series with no fans, doesn't count imo
2021: This is the only legit big disappointment imo, but don't forget Tavares missed the entire series
2022: Technically a first round loss but it really wasn't. Two of the top 4 teams in the East. That's the playoff format bad luck. Also vs the 2x defending Cup Winner.

It's not like they got upset 6 years in a row.

hey, Dubas quit lurking and find the team a winger for Tavares.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Sorry Joe Sakic. Your 8 Playoff OT goals is an arbitrary measure. Dekes for Days says so.

As an exclusive measure of the things you're claiming/discussing, yeah it's pretty arbitrary. And the fact that they didn't make 11m is entirely meaingless, because nobody made 11m for the majority of the NHL's history.