In the past even as recent as last season when a top 6 current forward went down you could toss a AJ or Kapanen in there beside AM or JT, replacing Hyman and Mikheyev short-term and now the Leafs really only have Kerfoot to toss into that top 6 role and he is already suppose to be Leafs 3rd line C replacement for Kadri who was a cap casualty from the previous year to test this cap heavy theory.
If AM or JT miss time are we expecting 41 year old Thornton or 38 year old Spezza to step in and play 20+ minutes a night and then bottom fill his roster spot with and Engval?
or
Are we going to see a Mikheyev -- Kerfoot -- Nylander 2nd line or Hyman -- Kerfoot -- Marner top line?
or say its Marner or Nylander out
&
Are we going to see Hyman -- Matthews -- Kerfoot or Mikheyev -- Tavares -- Kerfoot/Simmonds/Vesey?
Even if Leafs lose players from the their bottom 6 currently say Thornton and Simmonds then are Travis Boyd, Joey Andersen or Denis Malgin going to be asked to replace them, which might still be the case even if Thornton and Simmonds are moved up into the top 6 as injury replacements and their former spots bottom filled?
If say TJ Brodie got hurt who was our biggest summer acquisition and missed a month, we're left with Justin Holl as our only RHD and playing in the top 4 on D, and hoping a yet untested Lehtonen is top 4 capable to fill that other spot. What does a Leafs defense look like if its Reilly/Muzzin or Brodie that miss time?
Injuries are a part of life and inevitable that all teams must face and deal with but with a very top heavy cap strategy, the impact on your roster overall takes on very different look during the year than what starts on paper to begin with. Even if you just picture 3 or 4 secondary non top 4 forwards it looks a lot different because of how much cap they consume and you're left with a bunch of <$1 mil players replacements for current <$ 1 mil regulars and starters.
At 100% healthy the current roster looks like it can test this successful compete theory on a nightly basis while being cap compliant to start with, at least in the regular season to qualify for the playoffs this year, but the Leafs salary structure strategy will really TRULY be tested once injuries become a part of the equation and where we end up at. IMO
To be fair, the Leafs have done a reasonably good job at "insulating" the potential injury to a top 6 forward or two, especially if it's a winger.
They have Vesey, Robertson, Simmonds & Kerfoot who all
could be viable top 6 replacements. 3 of them have been 2nd line players for the majority of their career, and Robertson has loads of potential. Behind them, they have guys who can certainly play on a 3rd line including Engvall, Thornton & Spezza.
Even if they lose a centre, Kerfoot, Thornton & Spezza behind one of JT/AM shouldn't neccessarily the end of the world. I think the challenge is that if that happens, the remaining "big 4" will need to show why they're paid $11m (or $7m in the case of Nylander).
When you get paid that kind of money, you need to be able to produce without having another $11m player on your line. Matthews has done it -- putting up 40 goals as a rookie, 34 in 62 as a sophomore, and 37 in 68 in his 3rd year, despite rarely playing with Mitch Marner, and often with Johnsson/Kapanen. Tavares has never really been "tested" without having a great running mate -- 1st year with Marner racks up 47. This year with Nylander, goalscoring down, but still hovering right around a point per game. In the case of Marner -- we have to ask how much of the improvement in his game from high 60s to mid-90s is by virtue of playing consistently alongside Matthews or Tavares, and how much is just the development of his game?
Personally, I think the Leafs are a much more dangerous team taking that talent and spreading them out over 3 lines. Do something like this:
Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Vesey/Robertson-Matthews-Mikheyev
Simmonds-Kerfoot-Nylander
or
Mikheyev-Tavares-Nylander
Hyman-Matthews-Vesey
Robertson-Kerfoot-Marner
It creates a situation where these 4 are accustomed to producing without being "partnered up". It's contrary to the way Sheldon Keefe has managed the team and ice time, but IMO much harder to defend against, and much better over a longer haul.
As for the D, the Leafs have actually built with a fairly "balanced" approach -- largely driven by how little Morgan Rielly makes. There are 58 defencemen who make $5m or more this year. There are only 8 teams who have 3 defencemen making $5m or more -- Arizona, Carolina, Florida, Minnesota, San Jose, St. Louis, Toronto and Vancouver. The amount dedicated to that top 3 ranges from $15.6m (Toronto) to $26.5m (San Jose), with most of the teams between $16.5m and $19m.
Yeah, you can criticize Justin Holl as the #4 defenceman on the team. They're not deep in the sense of a Calgary, Carolina or Minnesota who all have REALLY good 4th-best defencemen... but they have a ton of guys who are likely very solid bottom pair guys, with immediate top 4 upside in Dermott, Sandin, Liljegren. Lehtoenen, and Bogosian for spot duty.
Really the biggest problem there is the lack of "diversity" in the sense that Dermott, Sandin, Liljegren and Lehtonen all seem like similar defencemen (and are mostly left shots).
