Salary Cap: Lets put Salary structure expenditures to the test.

[kk87]

The only thing our cap structure really does is insulate us from adding the anchor contracts you see in free agency every year (less so this year) across the league. Look at Vancouver: two star players on their ELCs and yet they're in cap hell because they paid fringe NHLers tens of millions of dollars. Dubas will have to be creative and resourceful with fitting in effective depth pieces, but the salary cap should be perfectly manageable for any team that doesn’t make horrific spending decisions with replacement-level players.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

What about Phil Kessel.

He's in there for 1.2M

 

[JT AM da real deal]

every year on this board i read the team improved , last year it was Barrie was an elite 1st pair D and grit was useless

i believe the D has improved , Brodie has to be upgrade on Barrie who was useless

we'll see if the forwards have gotten better , a lot of ifs with bringing back Spezza and signing Joe and Simmonds while having to dump Kap/Johnson because we spent so much of the cap on 3 forwards

Forwards SAME or maybe a little worse but not much
Defense BETTER how much depends on Brodie but let's hope he was not to sheltered by Gio and Bogo will help
Goalies BETTER no more Hutch starts should add 10 points with campbell/dell
Should be 10-12 points better so guessing 100-105 pts on 82 games
It will be very close between us Habs and Bruins still think Bolts will be top team easy
Atlantic will have 4 teams at top of east

 

[justashadowof]

Forwards SAME or maybe a little worse but not much

I see a Clifford replacement in Simmonds. It's easy to replace Gauthier. Johnsson wasn't good last season, the bar isn't high for whoever takes his ice time. I think Kapanen did more competitively and defensively than some recognize, not sure there's a replacement (Vesey?). I don't believe Thornton is as much a net positive on the ice (potentially highly positive in the room) as his point totals will suggest as he will disrupt the way the coach wishes to have the team play.

Defense BETTER how much depends on Brodie but let's hope he was not to sheltered by Gio and Bogo will help

Brodie should be better than Barrie and Ceci. I've had my eyes on Bogosian for years for the Leafs. Put him with a mobile partner (Rielly/Dermott/Sandin) it may work out well.

Goalies BETTER no more Hutch starts should add 10 points with campbell/dell

Nothing will matter if Andersen slips severely. Campbell has started in the NHL, even decently so he could literally save the season. I'm not counting on Dell making it through waivers. That's dependent on the occurrence of injuries across the league.

Should be 10-12 points better so guessing 100-105 pts on 82 games
It will be very close between us Habs and Bruins still think Bolts will be top team easy
Atlantic will have 4 teams at top of east

Very optimistic. I'd say "could be 10-12 points better".

The biggest factors are still the kind of years the big 4 have (as it should be) AND whether Muzzin and Rielly are mostly healthy.

 

[seanlinden]

The only thing our cap structure really does is insulate us from adding the anchor contracts you see in free agency every year (less so this year) across the league. Look at Vancouver: two star players on their ELCs and yet they're in cap hell because they paid fringe NHLers tens of millions of dollars. Dubas will have to be creative and resourceful with fitting in effective depth pieces, but the salary cap should be perfectly manageable for any team that doesn’t make horrific spending decisions with replacement-level players.

It also prevents you from retaining the young players that you draft & develop.

Look at the Tampa team that won the cup this year. Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Cirelli, Palat, Killorn, Paquette, Hedman, Sergachev, Cernak, Johnson, Gourde & Vasilevsky. 13 core pieces of their Stanley Cup Winning Roster. including all of their top 8 point producing forwards -- all developed in-house. Of those guys, only 3 (Stamkos, Hedman, Sergachev) have been acquired using top 10 picks.

Tampa didn't win the cup because Kucherov put up 128 points last year. They won the cup based on depth, and playing with desperation.

In the Leafs case, with these "big 4"; we've seen the departures of home-grown mid-level depth talent in Kadri, Brown, Johnsson and Kapanen.

Dating back 8-9 years, when those 18 year old raw projects that you draft in the mid-late rounds begin to enter their primes, the Leafs have really done not a bad job at the draft table, acquiring Josh Leivo in 2011, Connor Brown in 2012, Andreas Johnsson in 2013, Pierre Engvall in 2014 and Travis Dermott in 2015. 3 of those guys are gone, and Dermott might very well be on the way out shortly too.

This cap structure basically forces us into short term deals with developing players, and creates a situation where you're always backfilling.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I see a Clifford replacement in Simmonds. It's easy to replace Gauthier. Johnsson wasn't good last season, the bar isn't high for whoever takes his ice time. I think Kapanen did more competitively and defensively than some recognize, not sure there's a replacement (Vesey?). I don't believe Thornton is as much a net positive on the ice (potentially highly positive in the room) as his point totals will suggest as he will disrupt the way the coach wishes to have the team play.

Brodie should be better than Barrie and Ceci. I've had my eyes on Bogosian for years for the Leafs. Put him with a mobile partner (Rielly/Dermott/Sandin) it may work out well.

Nothing will matter if Andersen slips severely. Campbell has started in the NHL, even decently so he could literally save the season. I'm not counting on Dell making it through waivers. That's dependent on the occurrence of injuries across the league.

Very optimistic. I'd say "could be 10-12 points better".

The biggest factors are still the kind of years the big 4 have (as it should be) AND whether Muzzin and Rielly are mostly healthy.

Yes could be but can't see much change from big 4 overall really ... maybe Mitch and JT have slightly better years and Matty and willy drop a bit ... overall likely a wash ... Rielly and Muzzy if they play a full season will be better healthy ... Freddy is Freddy not much gonna change as he is steady Freddy for a reason with upd/downs in reg season ... Freddy issues are post season related ... Brodie and Bogo should be better then last year ... Rielly is not Gio and it will require more from Brodie but I hope he has it in him to give more ... Rielly will be relying on Brodie to make da digs in corners and start pass to Rielly for his breakout ... in Calgary it was Gio getting puck in corner and fighting for it around net and unloading to Brodie for nice breakout ... this is a much bigger issue than most realize ... Brodie will be in Gio's role here with Rielly ... we will see how he does in it

 

[Throw More Waffles]

No other team has 3 forwards making 11 million. No amount of stat manipulation will change that. Most teams don’t have ANY forward making 11 million, let alone 3.

I think it’s a very reasonable concern that maybe this isn’t sustainable.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Very optimistic. I'd say "could be 10-12 points better".

The biggest factors are still the kind of years the big 4 have (as it should be) AND whether Muzzin and Rielly are mostly healthy.

I'd say it's healthy D (lesser extent) and bigger extent goaltending. We got very few points from the backup position and Fred was off much of the year.

 

[IPS]

Yes could be but can't see much change from big 4 overall really ... maybe Mitch and JT have slightly better years and Matty and willy drop a bit ... overall likely a wash ... Rielly and Muzzy if they play a full season will be better healthy ... Freddy is Freddy not much gonna change as he is steady Freddy for a reason with upd/downs in reg season ... Freddy issues are post season related ... Brodie and Bogo should be better then last year ... Rielly is not Gio and it will require more from Brodie but I hope he has it in him to give more ... Rielly will be relying on Brodie to make da digs in corners and start pass to Rielly for his breakout ... in Calgary it was Gio getting puck in corner and fighting for it around net and unloading to Brodie for nice breakout ... this is a much bigger issue than most realize ... Brodie will be in Gio's role here with Rielly ... we will see how he does in it

This post sums up why I wasn't the biggest fan of the Brodie acquisition. The teams who go far in the playoffs every year - there's a reason they construct their D's the way they do. Dubas just doesn't seem to get it, he continues to try and push this whole thing of stacking 2 puck movers together. It will never work because it's flawed by design. We needed to find Rielly his Cernak or Carlo the last 2 seasons, yet Dubas refuses to do it for some dumb reason.

You're dead bang on the money here.

 

[Gabriel426]

He's in there for 1.2M

Going to ask this now, does that mean if we win a Cup, Phil will get a ring?????

 

[Gabriel426]

Forwards SAME or maybe a little worse but not much
Defense BETTER how much depends on Brodie but let's hope he was not to sheltered by Gio and Bogo will help
Goalies BETTER no more Hutch starts should add 10 points with campbell/dell
Should be 10-12 points better so guessing 100-105 pts on 82 games
It will be very close between us Habs and Bruins still think Bolts will be top team easy
Atlantic will have 4 teams at top of east

I think the D is much better in terms of depth. Our 7th Dman is Marincin or Sandin last season. I think Bogo will be the surprise in D.
Forwards wise, I think collectively there are more options. I won't be surprise to see Simmonds or/and Vessey playing and doing well in the top 6. Expecting Jumbo to be like Spezza where there will be shifts and even games that will remind us why they are HOFs. In reality, the only forward that left is Kap, AJ hardly played last season. GOAT was never effective. Clifford had his moments but thats all he had.
Having Campbell will be great bc I think Hutch had a 0-6 records or something like that. If he won 3 of those games, thats already 6 more points for the Leafs.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

This (payroll heavily tilted in favour of forwards) will unfortunately continue to be a story until it's no longer applicable. The team either can and will win at some point rendering it all moot, or the approach will eventually require some altering.

Kind of a good example out there right now with Tampa Bay. Cernak,Cirelli and Sergachev getting signed on $2,900,000. They can’t even get value in trade in this crazy times. They are in a pickle like crazy. I’m glad we don’t have that mess. We improved,I don’t think the prospect of t-bay improving out of this looks very good. They will likely lose on them players and become a less competitive team. They’ll still be good but not likely as good.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Going to ask this now, does that mean if we win a Cup, Phil will get a ring?????

I think he has one in each eye and can’t read this

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I think the D is much better in terms of depth. Our 7th Dman is Marincin or Sandin last season. I think Bogo will be the surprise in D.
Forwards wise, I think collectively there are more options. I won't be surprise to see Simmonds or/and Vessey playing and doing well in the top 6. Expecting Jumbo to be like Spezza where there will be shifts and even games that will remind us why they are HOFs. In reality, the only forward that left is Kap, AJ hardly played last season. GOAT was never effective. Clifford had his moments but thats all he had.
Having Campbell will be great bc I think Hutch had a 0-6 records or something like that. If he won 3 of those games, thats already 6 more points for the Leafs.

Yes I do too ... goalers alone should bring an extra 10 points ...

I HOPE our defense is MUCH improved as you hope but until I see how Rielly plays with Brodie I am gonna reserve judgement ... last year I was so wrong about Barrie and Rielly so so wrong it makes me think what an idiot i was for thinking it was gonna work ... Brodie I think has a better shot at it because he plays back but it is far from certain it will work ... I hate to say it but it could be 2 guys who get stuck in their own zone because neither is particularly good at going in corners and retrieving pucks from opposition ... and I do feel that Dubie really has no idea what is required to build a defense ... Bogo yes he can play it but it is a huge stretch for him to skate with Rielly too slow ... he is better suited to 3rd pair ... and he would be a great vet partner for Dermy (like Muzzy) to help Dermy make full time leep up to 2nd paiir

2nd par of Muzzy and Holl will be fine with Bogo to help at end of game s and on PK

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Kind of a good example out there right now with Tampa Bay. Cernak,Cirelli and Sergachev getting signed on $2,900,000. They can’t even get value in trade in this crazy times. They are in a pickle like crazy. I’m glad we don’t have that mess. We improved,I don’t think the prospect of t-bay improving out of this looks very good. They will likely lose on them players and become a less competitive team. They’ll still be good but not likely as good.

Bruins may poach Serge for 6-7M per and Wings poach Cirelli for 5M per and Bolts can't do anything but take back picks for those guys ... they will have enough to sign back Cernak who is gonna be a great top 4 defense ... even if they trade Johnsson they will only keep Cirelli

 

[Carltons Cup]

No other team has 3 forwards making 11 million. No amount of stat manipulation will change that. Most teams don’t have ANY forward making 11 million, let alone 3.

I think it’s a very reasonable concern that maybe this isn’t sustainable.

While it may not be sustainable (time will tell), the COVID pandemic could be a blessing for the Leafs. It allowed us to acquire decent UFA depth where we wouldn't have otherwise been able to get those types of players in a "normal" offseason. Again, time will tell if they are the right mix....

 

[Wafflewhipper]

While it may not be sustainable (time will tell), the COVID pandemic could be a blessing for the Leafs. It allowed us to acquire decent UFA depth where we wouldn't have otherwise been able to get those types of players in a "normal" offseason. Again, time will tell if they are the right mix....

And hurts others. Double effect positive. That said, this season has a tentative January 1st start date which is basically a three month loss. I’m not sure how COVID-19 is going to effect the schedule with all things considered. I wonder if they will reduce the season length and try to get the schedule back on a normal course if a vaccine comes in to play around New Year also. There is talk a vaccine might be close by then. If so they would definitely be considering a postponement again so they could play with fans back. The following season would be pushed down the road to far if they do a full schedule this time possibly. I’m looking at it and wondering if we get a 60 game season tops so they can get the following season back on somewhat of a normal course with a vaccine possibly in sight.
60 games played every second night is 4 months and then add a 2 month playoff. So 6 months if moved to February 1st instead of January 1st if there is a vaccine in play. That would be end of July finish with fans in the seats,travel restrictions no longer in play also.
Thats a hard hard schedule on the body for players. Maybe they implement a replacement cap that doesn’t hinder movement of players that replace resting players etc.
Possibly there could be some player movement exceptions or something coming. Its just to hard to play 60 games on a every other night schedule for even the most in shape athletes im thinking.
If that happens it might see the following season only have to be pushed back 2 months. Training camps being less time could save a week or two also.
For the posts guessing we will be 10 or 12 points better next season i say thats awesome for a 60 game season

Edit: excuse my optimism but we can all use some no ha

 

[seanlinden]

While it may not be sustainable (time will tell), the COVID pandemic could be a blessing for the Leafs. It allowed us to acquire decent UFA depth where we wouldn't have otherwise been able to get those types of players in a "normal" offseason. Again, time will tell if they are the right mix....

Only in a very, very shortsighted way.... in reality, the Leafs were/are arguably the hardest hit team by the pandemic.
Toronto's top 3 paid players, as compared to other teams who have a "top-heavy strcuture".

Matthews/Tavares/Marner = $33.5m
Kane/Toews/Seabrook = $27.9m
Karlsson/Couture/Burns = $27.5m
Kucherov/Stamkos/Vasilevksy = $27.5m
Doughty/Kopitar/Brown = $26.8m
McDavid/Draisaitl/Neal = $26.8m
Crosby/Malkin/Letang = $25.4m
Stone/Pacioretty/Pietrangelo = $25.3m

I don't believe any team other than Tampa has their 4th highest paid player making $7m, so if you expand it to top 4 and include Nylander, the gap gets wider.

Toronto went "top-heavy" to a substantially greater extent than any other team in the league, and did so with the assumption of a constantly rising salary cap that would result in them sliding down this list as time went on. With COVID, the cap is going to be flat (or very close to flat) for a while -- quite possibly the duration of Matthews deal.

This year saw a massive depression of mid-level salaries due to COVID-19 -- but the big guys (notably Alex Pietrangelo & Torrey Krug) didn't really escape that wrath either. Next year, there's a new team coming in, which is going to free up a bunch of money "in the system" for the mid-level guys to get paid again -- it's going to be that much more difficult/impossible to put together a roster with sufficient depth to win in the playoffs.

Yes, the Leafs are well setup to continue to backfill as they find gems like Mikheyev (and IMO are the best team at recruiting european/KHL undrafted free agents), they're an attractive destination for older vets, and (at least before Dubas' arrival) seemed to have a reasonably good system that churned out at least 1 full time NHL player from outside of the first round every year.

However, one thing to realize about all these pieces that we find -- is that they don't often make for good 3rd liners until they've had quite a few years in the league, and get paid well. St. Louis won the cup on the strength of their D and 2 seasoned vets (Maroon & Bozak) on their 3rd line. Tampa won the cup with Gourde, Coleman, and Goodrow. Typically what you get from the leafs "talent pool" is skill guys, who might be able to play a complimentary role in your top 6, but they're not going to have the grit/edge/checking ability to be your typical 3rd liner. That comes with time in the league. We're not like Boston or St. Louis where our top line is features one of the best shutdown centres in the game. Matthews, Marner, and Tavares are offence-first players.

Maybe it works (beyond this year) if Robertson can develop into a bonafide top 6 forward, and you move Nylander and use that money towards Hyman and a quality 3rd line.

The problem isn't just $33m to 3 players, or $40m to 4 players, it's that amount of money to guys who all kind of do the same thing. If you're going to pay a guy $11m, he's gotta be able to make a $2m player produce like a $5m player. He's gotta make a $4m player produce like a $7m guy. He can't rely on having another $7m or $11m player on his line.

 

[PromisedLand]

Unloading Kapanen and Johnsson helped allocated funds to the defence.

Johnsson + Kapanen = Nylander (close enough AAV wise)

Scenario now:

Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Mikheyev-Tavares-Nylander
Kerfoot-Jumbo-Robertson
Barbanov/Engval - Spezza - Simmonds

Rielly Brodie
Muzzin Holl
Dermott Bogo

Scenario B: (if....) - if Nylander was traded
Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Mikheyev-Tavares-Kapanen
Johnsson-Jumbo-Kerfoot
Robertson-Spezza-Simmonds

Rielly Brodie
Muzzin Holl
Dermott Bogo


Scenario C: (if....) - if Marner was traded
Hyman-Matthews-Nylander
Mikheyev-Tavares-Kapanen
Johnsson-Jumbo-Kerfoot
Robertson-Spezza-Simmonds

Rielly Petreingelo
Muzzin Holl
Dermot Bogo

approx: +4M in capspace (we might have been able to sign Petro and our D would have been as Scenario C) OR we still sign Brodie at 5AAV and use the 4M to address more depth scoring


I guess we can say we gave up depth scoring that was locked in for few more years for defensive upgrades and re-signing RFAs

Bottom Line: Marner and Nylander need to SHOW UP!

 

[Anthrax442]

 

[PromisedLand]

The problem isn't just $33m to 3 players, or $40m to 4 players, it's that amount of money to guys who all kind of do the same thing. If you're going to pay a guy $11m, he's gotta be able to make a $2m player produce like a $5m player. He's gotta make a $4m player produce like a $7m guy. He can't rely on having another $7m or $11m player on his line.

Bingo!

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Bingo!

Bingo... are you serious man haha. You are agreeing that we have a problem because we play our best players together. Oh i know no other teams do that eh

 

[Buds17]

Kind of a good example out there right now with Tampa Bay. Cernak,Cirelli and Sergachev getting signed on $2,900,000. They can’t even get value in trade in this crazy times. They are in a pickle like crazy. I’m glad we don’t have that mess. We improved,I don’t think the prospect of t-bay improving out of this looks very good. They will likely lose on them players and become a less competitive team. They’ll still be good but not likely as good.

Tampa might fall off slightly, if not back. Boston could be battling injuries to start. Will the divisions remain as we know them though? Could there be something to having an all Canadian division? Guess we'll find out.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Tampa might fall off slightly, if not back. Boston could be battling injuries to start. Will the divisions remain as we know them though? Could there be something to having an all Canadian division? Guess we'll find out.

I know eh, it’s bizarre and baffling to get a grasp on this

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Johnsson + Kapanen = Nylander (close enough AAV wise)

Scenario now:

Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Mikheyev-Tavares-Nylander
Kerfoot-Jumbo-Robertson
Barbanov/Engval - Spezza - Simmonds

Rielly Brodie
Muzzin Holl
Dermott Bogo

Scenario B: (if....) - if Nylander was traded
Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Mikheyev-Tavares-Kapanen
Johnsson-Jumbo-Kerfoot
Robertson-Spezza-Simmonds

Rielly Brodie
Muzzin Holl
Dermott Bogo


Scenario C: (if....) - if Marner was traded
Hyman-Matthews-Nylander
Mikheyev-Tavares-Kapanen
Johnsson-Jumbo-Kerfoot
Robertson-Spezza-Simmonds

Rielly Petreingelo
Muzzin Holl
Dermot Bogo

approx: +4M in capspace (we might have been able to sign Petro and our D would have been as Scenario C) OR we still sign Brodie at 5AAV and use the 4M to address more depth scoring


I guess we can say we gave up depth scoring that was locked in for few more years for defensive upgrades and re-signing RFAs

Bottom Line: Marner and Nylander need to SHOW UP!

I wish i could get paid just to show up