Let's debate Powerplay QB: Letang vs. Schultz

[ColePens]

So I enjoy a fun debate and the numbers guys are speaking up regarding using Letang as the PP QB. The x's and o's guys are screaming for Schultz. I say let's start a debate! Please note - this is not a beat up Kris Letang thread. State your opinion, agree or disagree, acknowledge the other side of the argument - and move on.



- A user from the PGT thread wanted to discuss numbers showing Letang on the PP:

On the Powerplay:

Letang: 10.8 GF/60
Schultz: 6.8 GF/60


- My opinion is more focused around x's and o's. Schultz is the closest thing we've had to Gonchar in the way he walks the blueline, moves his hips, shows deception in his passes, and also keeps the PK honest with his shot. It opens up Kessel and Malkin for a split second and that's all those two guys need. The example would be last night's powerplay goal.

On the following video, for Sid's goal, you see Schultz throw a quick shot that gets blocked. Now the defense knows he's willing to shoot so Pouliot stays honest instead of shading towards Kessel. Schultz shows his eyes to the defender looking right or shot. He dishes left. That dish left keeps THREE PKers on the right side and opens up space for Kessel. Kessel gets the pass exactly where he wants, has space to walk in, and it creates the goal.

This example is exactly why I want Schultz running the powerplay. My argument against the quick numbers game is it doesn't take into count all the nuances that make a powerplay work.





So what say you?

Click to read more...

 

[UnrealMachine]

I'd like to see last season's GF/60 included, separately. Sample size for Schultz is quite small so far this season and seems to have coincided with a team-wide scoring slump that he has little control over.

 

[ColePens]

I'd like to see last season's GF/60 included, separately. Sample size for Schultz is quite small so far this season and seems to have coincided with a team-wide scoring slump that he has little control over.

@pixiesfanyo & @SidCity - any numbers on these? I know you two have been throwing out the numbers a bit. To get a strong data range, can you provide the above?

 

[canadianguy77]

Those numbers are essentially meaningless without more context.
All one has to do is watch the games to see that Schultz has poise on the PP and Letang doesn't. Coaches of the other teams aren't afraid to pressure Letang on the PP because they know he has the tendency to make the wrong play almost every time under pressure. He can't look off a player and make a pass in the other direction like Schultz can. He's also terrible at getting shots through to the net. Just watch the PP last night where Crosby scored. It shows everything that is missing when Letang is on the PP.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

A user from the PGT thread wanted to discuss numbers showing Letang on the PP:

On the Powerplay:

Letang: 10.8 GF/60
Schultz: 6.8 GF/60

I don't even know where to find these kinds of stats after so many sites have closed down.

 

[Jacob]

Schultz

Passes aren't grenades. More inclined to shoot and more likely to get shots through when he does. Doesn't have Letang's recovery ability but won't need it as much because he's not a moron.

 

[Gurglesons]

@pixiesfanyo & @SidCity - any numbers on these? I know you two have been throwing out the numbers a bit. To get a strong data range, can you provide the above?

I would say from the eye test that I'd agree with Schultz being the more attractive option than Letang.

I'll see if I can find some numbers, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Letang and Schultz be very similar as they both are playing similar minutes when given #1 duty and Crosby and Malkin are going to inflate anyone's numbers.

I would argue the main issue between the two is that our stars use Schultz effectively in terms of simplifying plays and our stars seem to want to set up the perfect play with Letang. I don't think Letang escapes criticism for that as he plays the same way.

I think the real interesting number would be to see the shots generated on each power play.

 

[Andy99]

Those numbers are essentially meaningless without more context.
All one has to do is watch the games to see that Schultz has poise on the PP and Letang doesn't. Coaches of the other teams aren't afraid to pressure Letang on the PP because they know he has the tendency to make the wrong play almost every time under pressure. He can't look off a player and make a pass in the other direction like Schultz can. He's also terrible at getting shots through to the net. Just watch the PP last night where Crosby scored. It shows everything that is missing when Letang is on the PP.

This.....

 

[ColePens]

I will give the one clear advantage of recovery to Letang. I think he's the best in the NHL at recovering due to his athleticism and speed. No doubt on that one.

 

[Rodgerwilco]

I have been saying this since probably 30 games after we acquired Schultz... He should be QB'ing the powerplay over Letang. As you said, he has a propensity to shoot the puck, unlike Letang (I get infuriated every time I see Letang do that dumb double-clutch shot, and have it be inevitably blocked or have him make a bad pass).

If 58 had the puck in the same situation as Schultz he probably would have double-clutched it and turned it over, or tried to make a pass after that.

Letang is a great skater, but he just doesn't control the puck the way a PP Quarterback needs to and, like you stated, he isn't a shooting threat. I love to see Schultz blasting away from the point.

 

[UnrealMachine]

In addition to recovery, Letang is also excellent at keeping the puck in the zone. The increased zone time might offset the poor choices he makes in terms of passing and his patented triple-deke shot from the blue line.

 

[xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

Sometimes stats don't tell the whole story. Letang's been a maniac on the PP forever. Indecisive, bad passer, stationary (skating's his entire game and he doesn't move!), etc.

Schultz is infinitely better on the PP.

 

[ncm7772]

Schultz. He has a better shot, largely because he's smarter on how/when to use it. And can actually hit the net.

He is smarter with his punches.

He is less predictable.

Letang, even when he was at his peak, has never been an outstanding PP D-Man, IMO.

 

[Dread Pirate Roberts]

Schultz, for lots of reasons, but one in particular. To figure out what Schultz is going to do with the puck on the powerplay, you have to be watching all eight of the other skaters. To figure out what Letang is going to do, you just have to be watching Letang. No PKer can watch eight guys at a time, but any PKer can watch his man.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

I don't think there is much to debate here, really. Letang has seniority on Schultz. Letang's minutes are usually at a high level, and to keep those minutes where he is used to them, he needs to play on the top PP unit. THAT really is the only reason why any sane head coach (let alone the coach of back-to-back Cup champs) would choose to use #58 over #4 with the top unit.

When Schultz is on the top unit, he usually moves to the middle of the ice so Malkin and Kessel can move to the wings, Crosby can roam down low and Hornqvist in his office. When Letang is on the unit, he seems to like being one of two pointmen, and he usually stays on the right side because his one-timer is trash. Kessel tends to move higher up, and Geno ends up too close to Sid quite often.

When Schultz is on the top unit, his shot adds another dimension and teams have to respect it. With Letang, he is a VERY hesitant shooter who also misses the net way too much. But it's his hesitation that hurts most, because you have to shoot on occasion to set everybody else up.

There are MAYBE 5 players in the entire NHL right now that I would place on the top unit ahead of Schultz, and Letang is certainly not one of them. E. Karlsson, sure. Burns, yeah. Mike Green, OK. MAYBE a couple more. Not many.

We are not maximizing EITHER player right now when Schultz plays the crumb minutes on the PP, and Letang plays ahead of him.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Schultz is the smarter player and better PPQB. He can feed the halfboards proper one-timers and is also a shooting threat, unlike Letang.

 

[Nakawick]

Schultz needs to be given 10 games or so on the PP. He provides another shot threat and makes Hornqvist more effective as the net front.

Letang is able to keep more pucks in at the line, he has a knack for that, which probably leads to a bit more zone time with him as QB.

Letang on the 2nd unit doesn't really give them a shot threat at all as no one on the 2nd unit is a one timer threat from distance.

 

[StaalForOne]

I will say that before looking for some data that I thought Scultz was more effective. I think he has a calmer presence, and is a better passer/shooter. Letang is more dynamic, and can create and recover as previously stated. Schultz, imo, does more with less. Keeps it simple if you will. Some charts from Hockey Viz: (Letang PIT 1718)

Time shares on the PP

Letang's 5v4 shot locations this season:

Schultz's 5v4 shot locations this season:

Career shot locations. These graphs, I believe, represent all team shots while said player is on the ice whereas the above represents the player's shots only.
Letang:

Schultz:

Again for reference HockeyViz . Good site, lots of fun tools.

 

[SidCity]

Here's some more numbers...specifically just on the Powerplay....I havent went through Letang's career numbers and last season on the PP was his worst season for chances against...it wasn't very good for him but his scoring numbers remained consistent with his career averages....

Letang/Schultz (2016-17)

Pts/60: 5.6/5.6 (higher is better)
Corsi-For/60: 104.0/104.1 (higher is better)
Corsi-Against/60: 22.2/13.3 (lower is better)
Net Corsi: 81.8/90.8 (higher is better)
Shots/60: 10.3/8.6

- Surprised that Letang was getting more shots on net than Schultz was last season on the PP.
- Breaking down their point production on the PP, they both had 0.8 G/60 but the difference comes in the type of assist. Schultz was reliant a lot more on the secondary assist but Letang's assist rati between primary and secondary assist was even.

Schultz A1/60: 1.9 and A2/60: 2.8
Letang A1/60: 2.4 and A2/60: 2.4

Meaning that Letang makes more things happen while Schultz is the beneficiary of another player making the play.

- Letang's Corsi-Against number of 22.2 is a big difference from his career average of 13.73 which it was before last season started. This number has rebounded significantly this year and is lower than his career average which I will display below.


Letang/Schultz (2017-18 so far)
Pts/60: 5.8/4.8
Corsi-For/60: 115.5/91.9
Corsi-Against/60: 8.7/15.8
Net Corsi: 106.8/76.1
Shots/60: 7.2/11.1

Letang has vastly outplayed Schultz on the powerplay this season so far. The numbers are pretty overwhelmingly in Letang's favor. The only thing that he is lacking in is the shots per 60....which I would expect Schultz to be better in....but to my surprise...Letang's Career shots/60 on the PP is 10.78 entering this season....which is very comparable to Schultz.

I quickly browsed the even strength numbers as well and Letang has better numbers at even strength than Schultz as well....

I mentioned in the other thread as well that Letang has been hampered by a horrible Even-Strength PDO of 91.9 which is extremely unlucky. His career average is 99.8.

As the season goes on, this number will start to even out and Letang will start "playing better". I understand its frustrating that he makes bad mistakes but as does every Dman that plays 25 mins a night....but when the numbers start lining up to their career averages...fans are more forgiving of the mistakes...

just my 2 cents on this topic.

 

[Captain Hook]

I prefer Schultz since he is at least a decent shooting threat.

Letang's inaccurate passes combined with his double or triple pump fakes followed by the actual shot which usually gets blocked far too often are enough to drive me crazy.

 

[WayneSid9987]

Another thing entirely is how opponents play each guy. Tanger's much more predictable/exploitable on the PP.

Also, Tanger with PP1 is gonna inflate his adv. stats simply because of the players he's on it with not because he's better than Schultz at QB'ing a PP.

 

[Don'tcry4mejanhrdina]

I don't even know where to find these kinds of stats after so many sites have closed down.

So Letang has a better GF/60 than Schultz, but would Schultz not have worse numbers automatically because he's often on the 2nd unit? He's playing with less talented players, no net front guy like Hornqvist, and usually only comes on with less than a minute left in the power play after the puck is in their own end. So he doesn't usually have the benefit of starting in the offensive zone unlike the 1st unit. There might be 30 seconds left by the time he's on the ice and it's usually with the puck in their own zone. By the time they get set up in the offensive zone (if they even do) there might be 20 seconds left, plus they have to worry about the time at that point so the players might be forcing plays quicker than they should be. Of course he's going to have a worse GF/60 on the PP than Letang.

 

[Harvey Birdman]

Unit 1:
BL: Schultz
LC: Kessel
RC: Malkin
Low: Crosby
Net: Hornqvist

Unit 2:
BL: Letang
BL: Maatta
LC: Rust
RC: Sheary
Low/Net: Guentzel

 

[Al Smith]

Re the numbers in the original post, there were at least a few times before Schultz was hurt where 58 was playing on PP2 and that unit scored. I remember thinking that Sully should leave 58 on PP2 because he was more effective there.

Setting numbers aside, by my eye and blood pressure tests, please keep 4 with PP1.

 

[Fordy]

don't care what the numbers say. letang is utterly laughable and forcefed opportunities