Post-Game Talk: Legs Wide Open on the Coaching Couch

[K1984]

Game 3 and going for the stack

f***ing stupid.

 

[Soundwave]

Game 3 and going for the stack

Called it. McDrai + Kane.

Ultimately if no one is making a save or defending for shit it's not going to change much either way, so I wouldn't get too hung up on line combos.

Warren "Nogoals" in the top 6 is a bit of an eye raiser, but Brown looks really lost out there thus far.

 

[Louis Cypher]

f***ing stupid.

It's Nashville. Drai wants to keep his 4 points a game streak alive. I don't mind the 3rd line.

 

[rboomercat90]

The playoff loss to Vegas was devastating for the club. Seems like people not fully getting how much the club put into last season. it was the all in year for several players on the club digging so hard to be the best they can be. It all ended due to idiotic coaching decisions. Don't think that wasn't spotted and that there wouldn't be any thoughts on that. Pulling one goalie 4 times in playoffs and still NEVER starting the vet is the strangest thing I've seen in playoffs. Surreal in its stupidity.

Lack of adjustments, lack of line matching, lack of awareness on the one Vegas line that had to be mitigated. I mean think about it. We're the Oilers with McDrai, Nuge, Kane, Hyman, considerable weapons but being lit up by one Vegas line and we don't do anything to try to stop it.

For me this was one of the more difficult offseasons because of how the last ended. But I wonder if any players felt this. Sorry guys, all your career best seasons were all for not, as Drai stated a completely wasted season. I'll never forget him saying that, and its true.

That goaltending decision to go back to Skinner for game 6 was the worst decision I’ve ever seen. They were trailing the series 3-2 meaning they needed to win the next two games or be eliminated. Skinner through 2 series had been incapable of playing well in back to back games. It didn’t seem to me at the time that any thought was put into that. Facing elimination it was time to get creative. Campbell was going to need to win one of these games at least if not both. Start Campbell in game 6 coming off Skinner’s stinker in game 5 and reevaluate for game 7. Would have been harder to play Campbell in game 7 if Skinner won game 6 so game 6 had to be the game to make the switch. They were lazy though and chose to do nothing. It’s that reason that I’ve repeatedly said Woodcroft threw in the towel before that series was over. There’s no way in knowing what would have happened in that game if Campbell would have started but it was obvious they were losing it with Skinner and they did. Probably made me even angrier seeing Campbell starting the third period when the game was essentially over than it did seeing Skinner start the game. I’m just a fan, the players are living it. i wouldn’t be surprised at all if the players lost faith in the coaching staff after that series, how could they not?

 

[Fourier]

f***ing stupid.

Loading up the top line is pretty much par for the course in the NHL right now.

Statistically its kind of a wash over the last two years though McDavid on his own with Nuge and Leon together probably wins out:

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

 

[K1984]

Loading up the top line is pretty much par for the course in the NHL right now.

Statistically its kind of a wash over the last two years though McDavid on his own with Nuge and Leon together probably wins out:

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

Before reverting to this and running the top line ragged, I would have preferred if the coaching staff try what has been glaringly obvious to the eye and analytics over the past few seasons - RNH works much better with McDavid and Kane works much better with Drai. Even if all they did was flip the left wings it could make a material difference, but they seem to be oblivious to an alternative that is right in front of them.

 

[Forgot About Drai]

Bring back Mike Smith

 

[rboomercat90]

When to we start the clock on the Brown experiment? Brown has nothing to show but 2 shots on net and a -3. Am I correct he gets 3.225mill the moment he hits 10 games? I thought it was 30 but capfriendly.com is saying 10. The moment he hits that bonus? The cap fun for next year starts. It is early but we need him and other to step up


if we waive Skinner and Campbell you is in net?

The question we really need to ask is if this organization has the guts to pull the plug on Brown after 9 games. I doubt they do so we’re likely stuck with this situation. It was dumb for that clause to have such a low number of games.

 

[Soundwave]

The question we really need to ask is if this organization has the guts to pull the plug on Brown after 9 games. I doubt they do so we’re likely stuck with this situation. It was dumb for that clause to have such a low number of games.

I doubt they will do it. A normal organization probably would but not the Oilers.

Holland doesn't care because he won't be here next year and he knows it.

Jackson is the one who negotiated the deal, lol, so is he going to ship out his former client just as he's just settled his family in Edmonton?

Probably not.

If it was the Golden Knights or Penguins or Leafs or some other org like that, they'd send his ass packing probably.

 

[Forgot About Drai]

Game 3 and going for the stack

Really wish we had some creativity vs just reverting back to this ASAP lol

 

[TheNumber4]

I got no issues with McDrai pairing? Let them feast a bit, shake off the rust. Drai had about 4 shots last game that he didn’t finish that would have been money if he was on his game and had his scoring touch.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

If you are stacking the top line, why move Foegele to the 2LW? Holloway has been better early on, give him a shot there.

 

[rboomercat90]

It was the same deal in the Vegas series. How can you play a zone defense and then proceed to not protect the front of your net? Isn't that the whole purpose of having your D play a zone defense? Our defensemen except for Bouchard should be told that you are a defenseman, your first, second and 3rd job is to defend, clear the crease and eliminate rebounds. Your 4th job is to break the puck out quickly and cleanly. The 5th job of yours is to keep the puck in on the cycle if you have a better than 70% chance of jumping up and retaining position. Your 6th job is to drop if your partner pinches. Your 7th job is to shoot for sticks or rebounds. Simplify the game for the likes of Ceci, Kulak, Broberg, Desharnais and to a lesser degree Ekholm who likely isn't 100%. Nurse will want to be a free wheeler so whoever his partner is needs to really study this. Instead we have guys not clearing the crease and making breakaway passes that are out of their skill set leading to icings.

Do you honestly think any of our defensemen are smart enough to remember 7 things?

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Game 3 and going for the stack

Welp. Game 3 and the Stack is Back. Pretty clear action that counters the team's public messaging of no panic with their embarrassing start.

The only thing I like is maybe this gets Kane going and engaged which they need. I'd also have Holloway on 2LW to give Nuge and Hyman some prospective finishing ability and Holloway's fast forecheck game. Keep McLeod and Foegele together on the third line.

McDavid Draisaitl break in case of emergency. A tried and tested coaching default... no coach is immune.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Do you honestly think any of our defensemen are smart enough to remember 7 things?

Ekholm is. That's all that I've got.

 

[mkatcherin00]

If you are stacking the top line, why move Foegele to the 2LW? Holloway has been better early on, give him a shot there.

If the playoffs showed us anything, who knows why this coach makes some of the decisions he does

 

[bucks_oil]

The issue is not so much about whether the sv% should ever be 0.750 it is more a pattern of whether or not high danger shots are generally stopped.

I know you are a goalie so I am happy to defer to your expertise on the tips. But even if he would be expected to stop 20% that means on average he should have stopped one of the two.

But I think your numbers are off a little here, at least with respect to 5 vs 5 play. There are different systems for measuring these sorts of things but we can stick to Money Pucks method Here are the stats from last year.

NHL Goalie Statistics

NHL Goalie Analytics, Expected Goals, Expected Rebounds

moneypuck.com

Swayman for example had a HDsv% of .873. Samsonov behind a rather porous defense had a HDsv% of .868. Lats year Skinner was at .753 for the season and Campbell was at .705. This year by the Money Puck system Skinner's HDsv% is .000, meaning he has not stopped one HD shot 5 vs 5 so far.

NHL Goalie Statistics

NHL Goalie Analytics, Expected Goals, Expected Rebounds

moneypuck.com

Demko is at 1.000 and DeSmith was at .750. The sample size is small of course but the pattern is there.

Money Pucks model suggests that in his two games Skinner has let in almost 5 more goals than would be expected based on shot quality.

So look... my general point still stands. You cannot look at SPCT numbers across a game or even a few games and use that as your data to say "good or bad" goaltending. Across a season? Certainly among guys playing in front of the same D, sure. For different teams? That's where the caveats come in and where the advanced, advanced stats, may start to become useful (but again only over a much larger n-size).

And anyway, we don't need to... we can literally count on two hands the events we are talking about and thanks to NHL.com go back and OBSERVE THEM. Then we can talk about whether they were good or bad goals.

Skinner even said words to that effect himself after the last game. He knows which pucks he had no chance on (the first three) and which pucks he might like to have back (fourth one - maybe, he was going to go back and look). The stats don't add ANY additional context or value in this analysis. Skinner knows which ones he shoulda had, his coaches may have a good idea as well, at least after watching tape.

But this absurd notion that the goaltending is good or bad because after two games the SPCT is 0.750 is rediculous.

And honestly... that's the type of attitude that has us cycling through 6 goalies in 6 years and thinking we're just unlucky in our choices.

The alternate hypothesis here is that our team has a culture of half-measured defending. Those first three goals on Skinner demonstrate it... example: being near the guy in front of the net, yet he's still on his skates, skill has his stick free, and still manages to make the tip.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I do appreciate the leveled response. I feel like we were all well aware that the defense and goaltending needs to be better this year. Where I'm losing it now is that some seem to be decided for certain already that the team won't hit a groove and settle into their new system. Is it really fair or reasonable to think that after 2 games it's clearly not capable of happening? Is it also fair and reasonable to think after 2 games that what we've seen from our goalies is all we're going to get?

I certainly don't. But maybe that's just a me thing then.

This team has never stuck to a system. Thats part of the nature of a star studded team. that they will freelance, and that the allstar players on a team will model freelancing. So that its not always easy to get buy in from such a club. Its easier to get buy in from a work bucket club, like the Nucks, or like the Flames sometimes get. For example. You really need an elite coach, and possibly a past player coach, to get a talent team to buy in. Caps had that ONLY under Trotz. Pens got it because Sidney already prided himself on 200ft aspects. Crosby is rarer in that regard. He wanted the full game. Not just individual pts.

I don't buy the "Its only 2 games in" thing because the team is hardly knew to us. The Oilers have kept with the most static lineup in the NHL. Basically negligible changes. Perhaps worse several years into his time here Holland is still rolling the dice on low probability help. We got lucky with Ryan, and briefly with Janmark but most of these tired old retread projects and PTO's, they don't work. Have to admit I was OK with bringing in Gagner but I didn't know he was comign here with appreciable injury.

Perhaps its why I liked the Kostin gamble so much. Those players that are high draft pedigree, they're often worth a shot, just like Raffi Torres was. Teams sometimes give up on players too quickly. Find those, not so much the vet players that have just been hanging onto NHL jobs somewhere. For a team that doesn't draft well or trades away picks its critical to find the potential Kostins. Interestingly Tocchet in Vancouver is spinning some of those kinds of tires to see if any are good. I'd like Holland to get more imaginative with who he's looking for and Kostin was rare example of that.

 

[Jumptheshark]

The question we really need to ask is if this organization has the guts to pull the plug on Brown after 9 games. I doubt they do so we’re likely stuck with this situation. It was dumb for that clause to have such a low number of games.

He is McDavids buddy and that is why they wont do it

 

[Drivesaitl]

That goaltending decision to go back to Skinner for game 6 was the worst decision I’ve ever seen. They were trailing the series 3-2 meaning they needed to win the next two games or be eliminated. Skinner through 2 series had been incapable of playing well in back to back games. It didn’t seem to me at the time that any thought was put into that. Facing elimination it was time to get creative. Campbell was going to need to win one of these games at least if not both. Start Campbell in game 6 coming off Skinner’s stinker in game 5 and reevaluate for game 7. Would have been harder to play Campbell in game 7 if Skinner won game 6 so game 6 had to be the game to make the switch. They were lazy though and chose to do nothing. It’s that reason that I’ve repeatedly said Woodcroft threw in the towel before that series was over. There’s no way in knowing what would have happened in that game if Campbell would have started but it was obvious they were losing it with Skinner and they did. Probably made me even angrier seeing Campbell starting the third period when the game was essentially over than it did seeing Skinner start the game. I’m just a fan, the players are living it. i wouldn’t be surprised at all if the players lost faith in the coaching staff after that series, how could they not?

Its good to see when others are seeing the same thing. But its troubling how often this org finds ways to fail. You say throw in the towel, thats interesting, but its the stubborness to make adjustments, changes, that was the real thing. I keyed Skinner carefully in game 1 of Vegas series. The game Drai scored 4 goals in and we still lost. I would have changed goalies at that point. We'd already seen enough runway with Skinner in playoffs. But the uncanny thing is how little line matching or adjstments or changes occurred. We allowed one Vegas line to just hit it out of the ballpark game after game. We hardly adjusted to it with personnel we had.

Now this is a worse consideration. That Woody's favorites trumped what was best for the team. Its unpleasant to think this but how could one not? How could you trust a supervisor after he gave the big project to a subordinate who was obviously f***ing up, but he's tight with the guy. The whole office or shop see's something like that and they know. These are not dumb players in leadership, they know. A guy like Nuge could make a far better coach than Woody. A guy like Nuge knows the shortcomings of the coaching here and he's had a constant diet of it. As a manager its critical to get out of your own head and bias and make the right call. Make the right decisions. It can't just be "your guy".

 

[Drivesaitl]

The question we really need to ask is if this organization has the guts to pull the plug on Brown after 9 games. I doubt they do so we’re likely stuck with this situation. It was dumb for that clause to have such a low number of games.

I have a greater chance of a trip to the moon than this happening. Holland just isn't the type of GM to make this quick decision and this org isn't built that way. Plus as others stated its "Connor's guy"

But that was the problem with Connor Brown coming here. Connor was gonna land solid regardless of performance because he had Mr McGod vouching for him. Business case studies are rife with examples of how it can be problematic hiring friends in professional engagements. The number one problem is that assessment and treatment of friends will differ, and they will get inordinate good treatment and chances.

Connor Brown likely improves from what he's shown but I can't see him being any Hyman here. Hyman had to work for his role here, and work hard for it. He didn't have the handshake connection here to our stars. I think as well that its always different being out of hockey for a full season. Thats around 18mths Connor Brown didn't play hockey (only a couple games) That can be insurmountable.

 

[Duke74]

I got no issues with McDrai pairing? Let them feast a bit, shake off the rust. Drai had about 4 shots last game that he didn’t finish that would have been money if he was on his game and had his scoring touch.

He should have had at least 3-4 goals last game. Another one of those frustrating games where the Oilers grossly outshoot the opposition only to lose by one.

 

[Fourier]

So look... my general point still stands. You cannot look at SPCT numbers across a game or even a few games and use that as your data to say "good or bad" goaltending. Across a season? Certainly among guys playing in front of the same D, sure. For different teams? That's where the caveats come in and where the advanced, advanced stats, may start to become useful (but again only over a much larger n-size).

And anyway, we don't need to... we can literally count on two hands the events we are talking about and thanks to NHL.com go back and OBSERVE THEM. Then we can talk about whether they were good or bad goals.

Skinner even said words to that effect himself after the last game. He knows which pucks he had no chance on (the first three) and which pucks he might like to have back (fourth one - maybe, he was going to go back and look). The stats don't add ANY additional context or value in this analysis. Skinner knows which ones he shoulda had, his coaches may have a good idea as well, at least after watching tape.

But this absurd notion that the goaltending is good or bad because after two games the SPCT is 0.750 is rediculous.

And honestly... that's the type of attitude that has us cycling through 6 goalies in 6 years and thinking we're just unlucky in our choices.

The alternate hypothesis here is that our team has a culture of half-measured defending. Those first three goals on Skinner demonstrate it... example: being near the guy in front of the net, yet he's still on his skates, skill has his stick free, and still manages to make the tip.

Here is the situation for goal three:

This 2-0 was probably Foegele's fault more than Nurse for example since Nurse was actually in an excellent position to get a pass when Foegele inexplicitly decided to take a very low percentage and very dangerous shot. Nurse actually did a decent job of trying to get back into the play. But it was not a 2-0 like Gretzky/Kurri or even McDavid/Draisaitl. Petterson moved the puck early and was not going to get it back. Skinner was pretty much set and got beat through the legs. Was it a tough save? Sure. But was it unstoppable? I am not so sure you can say that. Throw in goal #4 and there are at least two goals that he could have made a difference on even if you concede the two tips.

For the record, I think Skinner is a solid goalie given his level of experience and I am not of the opinion he should be dumped. But in the end NHL goalies stop such "unstopable shots" all the time. DeSmith did so several times in the very same game. So far this year the Oiler's goalies are not doing that at all. Instead the defense gets painted as a tire fire. This is often deserved but I am not so sure it was this game.

 

[Lacaar]

Here is the situation for goal three: View attachment 753528

This 2-0 was probably Foegele's fault more than Nurse for example since Nurse was actually in an excellent position to get a pass when Foegele inexplicitly decided to take a very low percentage and very dangerous shot. Nurse actually did a decent job of trying to get back into the play. But it was not a 2-0 like Gretzky/Kurri or even McDavid/Draisaitl. Petterson moved the puck early and was not going to get it back. Skinner was pretty much set and got beat through the legs. Was it a tough save? Sure. But was it unstoppable? I am not so sure you can say that. Throw in goal #4 and there are at least two goals that he could have made a difference on even if you concede the two tips.

For the record, I think Skinner is a solid goalie given his level of experience and I am not of the opinion he should be dumped. But in the end NHL goalies stop such "unstopable shots" all the time. DeSmith did so several times in the very same game. So far this year the Oiler's goalies are not doing that at all. Instead the defense gets painted as a tire fire. This is often deserved but I am not so sure it was this game.

This is kind of a summary for the Oilers general.

They're a really good hockey team that can carry the play for most of the game. Generate more high danger chances etc.

But it's always a combination of 2 things.
1. Someone on the team is going to do something f***ing stupid. Tomorrow it may be someone else. But someone is going to make a play that will cost a goal and potentially the game. Foegle's shot was a f***ing moronic play plain and simple. This team is not self aware. This was a FREEBIE.. beat themselves goal.
2. Our goalie will bail us out of the stupid errors less than other teams goalie more often than not. Hence why we have shit goalie stats and say after the games. Well X goalie didn't really give up a stinker. Sure.. but our goalies are incapable of covering up for those mistakes.

So the combination results in players that can't eliminate the stupid from their games. And are on
eggshells knowing that ANY mistake they make is most likely in that back of the net. Cause Stewart and Jack statistically make less 5 bell game save savers than the rest of the league.

 

[Soundwave]

Here is the situation for goal three: View attachment 753528

This 2-0 was probably Foegele's fault more than Nurse for example since Nurse was actually in an excellent position to get a pass when Foegele inexplicitly decided to take a very low percentage and very dangerous shot. Nurse actually did a decent job of trying to get back into the play. But it was not a 2-0 like Gretzky/Kurri or even McDavid/Draisaitl. Petterson moved the puck early and was not going to get it back. Skinner was pretty much set and got beat through the legs. Was it a tough save? Sure. But was it unstoppable? I am not so sure you can say that. Throw in goal #4 and there are at least two goals that he could have made a difference on even if you concede the two tips.

For the record, I think Skinner is a solid goalie given his level of experience and I am not of the opinion he should be dumped. But in the end NHL goalies stop such "unstopable shots" all the time. DeSmith did so several times in the very same game. So far this year the Oiler's goalies are not doing that at all. Instead the defense gets painted as a tire fire. This is often deserved but I am not so sure it was this game.

You're not a "good goalie" if you can't ever stop any high danger chances.