I always try to look at few things for Forwards in the MVP race.
PPG, separation from them and their line mates, and their top few players.
Helps to see if they are a 1 man show, a guys driving a one line show, or a good player on a good team.
A good player on a great team has other lines teams need to defend, which makes it easier to score.
Not every top pairing, top shutdown line is preparing for just a way to stop the 1 guy.
A guys scoring 1.68 ppg (Kuch) is impressive no matter what. But if he is on a line with a guy who is also at 1.32 (Point).
A guy scoring 1.56 ppg (McD) whos closest line mate is 1.27 (Drai) is just as impressive IMO.
Once you look at the rest of the team though, yesh. Not even close IMO.
Kuch has 1.32, 1.12, .78 and .74 as a D man.
McDavad 1.27, .90, .65 and .48 in Klefbom.
Kuch has PPG guys on different lines to help ease the burden.
Tampa averages 4.17 GF/G.
Edmonton, 2.83 GF/G.
Kucherov is involved in 40% of the goals every game.
McDavid is involved in 55%
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I guess my point is, McDavid is a guy every team gameplans around stopping. You can throw almost 100% of your plan to stop him. If you can find to contain him, Edmonton will loose.
Kucherov is having one hell of a season, no doubt. But he is on a juggernaut where teams need to plan for multiple weapons. Where he has D who now how to make a good first pass.
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I always struggle because the award is MVP, not best player or best statistical season.
If you put McDavid on Tampa and Kucherov on Edmonton, my money is McDavid outperforms Kuch.
If im starting a franchise tomorrow and just have this year to base things on, im taking McDavid.
If im in a one game playoff to save my life, my first pick is McDavid.
Im not a fan of 'didnt make the playoffs' argument because the player has no control over the rest of his team, or his linemates. Its almost more impressive to put up amazing numbers on a bad team.
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Both are having amazing years, both are deserving of a MVP trophy. Most years, either one could have been the winner with their current numbers. I put McDavid ahead by a decent amount.