Speculation: League MVP Candidates Halfway Point

[ULF_55]

Talking heads Sportsnet 960 The Fan have been talking up Gaudreau as league MVP.

Their candidates IIRC, Kucherov, Rantanen/McKinnon, Gaudreau, McDavid.

Thought McDavid would get the "non-playoffs team" snub.

Along those lines, I'd have to say with how they've been discussing Gaudreau would apply to Marner.

But I'm not sure Marner is the MVP of the Leafs, I'd lean towards in order, Andersen, Marner, Rielly.

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[TheProspector]

If the Leafs have an MVP, it's Andersen, or Rielly. They could lose any forward at any time -- including our best -- and not even really notice it. The same cannot be said for Andersen or Rielly.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Andersen for sure it is not even close. He goes down and we are in deep sh*t.

 

[Notsince67]

Andersen for sure it is not even close. He goes down and we are in deep sh*t.

What happens if MM goes down at this point? I don't even want to think about it.

 

[Advanced stats]

What happens if MM goes down at this point? I don't even want to think about it.

We'd be fine, 2nd in the division still.



Rielly is MVP, Andersen would be the biggest loss.

 

[Buds17]

Marner leads the team offensively and is an all situations player. Rielly is the skater with the most ice time per game and is also utilized in all situations. As 1G, Andersen logs the most minutes on the team and would be the toughest to replace. Compelling case can be made for any of them IMO.

 

[al secord]

I'd assume our biggest loss would be our MVP.

 

[Notsince67]

We'd be fine, 2nd in the division still.



Rielly is MVP, Andersen would be the biggest loss.

Marner has been involved in 32 % of all goals in the form of direct goal or primary assist. I'd say we won't be fine.

 

[VanW27]

Andersen for sure it is not even close. He goes down and we are in deep sh*t.

You could say that about a lot of teams though, which is why I think you have to ignore goalies for the MVP discussion. They have the vezina and that's it.

Right now its gotta be Kucherov. 7 points up on Rantanen for top in the league, 8 up on Gaudreau and McDavid , and 14 up on Marner.

None of top contenders are particularly good defensively or anything like that so it goes to the guy with the most points

 

[Mr Hockey]

I would go

1. Kucherov
2. McDavid
   
3. Rantanen
4. Marner/Rielly

 

[Leafs1993]

Marner has been involved in 32 % of all goals in the form of direct goal or primary assist. I'd say we won't be fine.

How does that compare to the rest of the big guys?

 

[Advanced stats]

Talking heads Sportsnet 960 The Fan have been talking up Gaudreau as league MVP.

I wouldn't put much stock in 960 tbh.

Their the local talking heads in Calgary and it's their job to drum up support for their best player even though he's probably better off in the 5-10 tier than the 1-5(true MVP) tier.

At the same time marner is also not a top 5 player yet.

 

[Notsince67]

How does that compare to the rest of the big guys?

Team goal involvement via direct goal or primary assist
MM-32%
JT-25.9%
AM-20.3%
MR-16.8%

 

[MJ65]

Talking heads Sportsnet 960 The Fan have been talking up Gaudreau as league MVP.

Their candidates IIRC, Kucherov, Rantanen/McKinnon, Gaudreau, McDavid.

Thought McDavid would get the "non-playoffs team" snub.

Along those lines, I'd have to say with how they've been discussing Gaudreau would apply to Marner.

But I'm not sure Marner is the MVP of the Leafs, I'd lean towards in order, Andersen, Marner, Rielly.

I agree Andersen is the key to the success of this team - the team is going as far as Andersen go

 

[TML1967]

I always try to look at few things for Forwards in the MVP race.
PPG, separation from them and their line mates, and their top few players.
Helps to see if they are a 1 man show, a guys driving a one line show, or a good player on a good team.
A good player on a great team has other lines teams need to defend, which makes it easier to score.
Not every top pairing, top shutdown line is preparing for just a way to stop the 1 guy.

A guys scoring 1.68 ppg (Kuch) is impressive no matter what. But if he is on a line with a guy who is also at 1.32 (Point).
A guy scoring 1.56 ppg (McD) whos closest line mate is 1.27 (Drai) is just as impressive IMO.

Once you look at the rest of the team though, yesh. Not even close IMO.

Kuch has 1.32, 1.12, .78 and .74 as a D man.
McDavad 1.27, .90, .65 and .48 in Klefbom.

Kuch has PPG guys on different lines to help ease the burden.

Tampa averages 4.17 GF/G.
Edmonton, 2.83 GF/G.
Kucherov is involved in 40% of the goals every game.
McDavid is involved in 55%

----
I guess my point is, McDavid is a guy every team gameplans around stopping. You can throw almost 100% of your plan to stop him. If you can find to contain him, Edmonton will loose.
Kucherov is having one hell of a season, no doubt. But he is on a juggernaut where teams need to plan for multiple weapons. Where he has D who now how to make a good first pass.
----
I always struggle because the award is MVP, not best player or best statistical season.
If you put McDavid on Tampa and Kucherov on Edmonton, my money is McDavid outperforms Kuch.
If im starting a franchise tomorrow and just have this year to base things on, im taking McDavid.
If im in a one game playoff to save my life, my first pick is McDavid.
Im not a fan of 'didnt make the playoffs' argument because the player has no control over the rest of his team, or his linemates. Its almost more impressive to put up amazing numbers on a bad team.
---
Both are having amazing years, both are deserving of a MVP trophy. Most years, either one could have been the winner with their current numbers. I put McDavid ahead by a decent amount.

 

[Mr Hockey]

I agree Andersen is the key to the success of this team - the team is going as far as Andersen go

Leafs have shown they can win with Sparks in net, who is an AHL league level goalie.

 

[VanW27]

I put McDavid ahead by a decent amount.

While I agree with your general premise that McDavid is the better player I think you are overestimating the benefits of playing on a good team.

Kucherov is still the best player on Tampa and plays against opponents top D and "shut down" forwards. Having teammates who can score on other lines isn't very relevant for me when evaluating his season.

There's also some benefit for McDavid playing on a bad team, namely he plays a ton. If you look at the scoring rate stats to adjust for toi Kucherov is well ahead with 5.3pts/60 vs 4.1.

I guess in the end it will depend on how you define MVP. If its who impacts his team the most then it should almost always go to a player on a bad, or at least mediocre team. If its who's having the best season then it's Kucherov for me.

 

[King Mapes]

Lack of depth at D and G Rielly and Anderson would be the two biggest losses by a wide margin so I'd say they are our 2 MVPs.

League MVP might be Lucherov if he keeps up this pace. His numbers are insane. Hard to imagine he was off to a terrible start.

 

[Leafs1993]

Team goal involvement via direct goal or primary assist
MM-32%
JT-25.9%
AM-20.3%
MR-16.8%

Wow, thanks!

 

[Notsince67]

Wow, thanks!

No problem. Compiled the numbers myself and I have yet to see this stat published anywhere

 

[WilliamNylander]

Marner and Fred

 

[Jozay]

Andersen for sure.

Marner is probably 2nd imo.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

Andersen, Rielly, and Marner are top 3 for sure.

 

[Swedish Gretzky]

90% chance either Kucherov or Rantanen wins it. Outside chance McDavid

 

[authentic]

If the Leafs have an MVP, it's Andersen, or Rielly. They could lose any forward at any time -- including our best -- and not even really notice it. The same cannot be said for Andersen or Rielly.

Andersen for sure it is not even close. He goes down and we are in deep sh*t.

Our record is like 8-2 without Andersen this season. Marner has been our MVP, no question.