Pre-Game Talk: Leafs @ Sens October 22

[Jot]

I'd say Andy is more likely to make the start. Hasn't been announced yet. I imagine it will be Jim Reimer for TO, yes?

Back to back + Reimers numbers against Ottawa, seems like a no brainer.

But with Carlyle you never know.

 

[Super Cake]

Am i the only one who thinks it is stupid to look at a goaltenders stats against a certain team?

A goalies stats against a certain team doen't mean jack ****. Correlation does not equal causation.

 

[StefanW]

Am i the only one who thinks it is stupid to look at a goaltenders stats against a certain team?

A goalies stats against a certain team don't mean jack ****. Correlation does not equal causation.

It doesn't have to. If putting a goaltender into a given spot is correlated with winning then you put that goaltender into that spot.

 

[L'Aveuglette]

Fact: Kessel drinks maple syrup on the bench.

 

[DrEasy]

It doesn't have to. If putting a goaltender into a given spot is correlated with winning then you put that goaltender into that spot.

Yeah, but small sample sizes apply. Not to mention you're not even necessarily facing the same players each time.

 

[DrunkUncleDenis]

It seems that ever since the league and its fans got into advanced stats, "small sample size" is the phrase of the day.

12 starts is a fine sample size for a goalie facing a specific team. What does it need to be before being enough? 30? 50? Not everyone has the amount of games under their belts that Brodeur does.

Andy hasn't played well in the past vs the leafs. He has lost twice as many games as he has won. As far as I'm concerned, that's enough of a sample to tell me that he doesn't play his best when facing TO.

.906 is Pavalec bad, guys.

At the end of the day, I wouldn't even mind Andy starting. But to argue this correlation vs causation and small sample size garbage makes it seem like you guys are trying too hard to justify your opinions.

 

[NilssonTheWall]

Ayo. Yo. Kessel is sooooo fat, the only thing stopping him from going to the gym is the doorframe.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

Kessel is so fat that, when he's slumping, the entire hockey world can't help but stand by his side.

 

[Super Cake]

It seems that ever since the league and its fans got into advanced stats, "small sample size" is the phrase of the day.

12 starts is a fine sample size for a goalie facing a specific team. What does it need to be before being enough? 30? 50? Not everyone has the amount of games under their belts that Brodeur does.

Andy hasn't played well in the past vs the leafs. He has lost twice as many games as he has won. As far as I'm concerned, that's enough of a sample to tell me that he doesn't play his best when facing TO.

.906 is Pavalec bad, guys.

At the end of the day, I wouldn't even mind Andy starting. But to argue this correlation vs causation and small sample size garbage makes it seem like you guys are trying too hard to justify your opinions.

You know what these stats miss? Context.

How was the team in front of Andy playing? How many penalties did the Sens take during these games? Did the Sens have a crappy PK?

 

[StefanW]

Yeah, but small sample sizes apply. Not to mention you're not even necessarily facing the same players each time.

Yup, that's all true. It is not a statistical thing for me. In every sport I played there were teams, or players (in the case of individual sports), that I just knew I could beat and those that had my number. I think if you have confidence and assume you will win then you just play better. If you know you struggle against certain teams it gets into your head.

 

[Slow Hands]

Kessel is so fat he puts his belt on with a boomerang
shamelessly stolen from ******

 

[Unbiased homer]

Kessel is so fat that, when he's slumping, the entire hockey world can't help but stand by his side.

I see some one was on a certain website viewing a certain thread today haha

 

[Quo]

I hear Kessel uses bacon as a bandaid.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

I see some one was on a certain website viewing a certain thread today haha

I neither acknowledge nor deny these entirely substantiated claims.

 

[Savitar]

Lehner starts

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

Lehner starts

Source? Or opinion?

 

[BonkTastic]

Oh god, the cookies.

Beautiful.

 

[Slow Hands]

Not as good as the other one but amusing

 

[DrEasy]

It seems that ever since the league and its fans got into advanced stats, "small sample size" is the phrase of the day.

12 starts is a fine sample size for a goalie facing a specific team. What does it need to be before being enough? 30? 50? Not everyone has the amount of games under their belts that Brodeur does.

Andy hasn't played well in the past vs the leafs. He has lost twice as many games as he has won. As far as I'm concerned, that's enough of a sample to tell me that he doesn't play his best when facing TO.

.906 is Pavalec bad, guys.

At the end of the day, I wouldn't even mind Andy starting. But to argue this correlation vs causation and small sample size garbage makes it seem like you guys are trying too hard to justify your opinions.

I don't even care who starts; I think both are fine. So I'm not bringing up small sample size to justify my opinion. But I definitely believe that the whole "goalie X plays better/worse against team Y" is bogus. Not only 12 starts *IS* a small sample size, especially when SV% is such an unstable stat, but again it's not even like he faced the same players each time. You think there's something about the colour of the jersey that bothers him?

 

[derriko]

Kessel is so fat even Dora couldn't explore him.

 

[DrunkUncleDenis]

Yup, that's all true. It is not a statistical thing for me. In every sport I played there were teams, or players (in the case of individual sports), that I just knew I could beat and those that had my number. I think if you have confidence and assume you will win then you just play better. If you know you struggle against certain teams it gets into your head.

This is how I feel though (maybe it didn't come through great in my post). I'm not going to go searching through game summaries but I feel like Andy has let in a lot of softies early against the leafs. Bad defense ya, and sure it can happen (and has happened) against any team, but from memory, Andy is weak vs TO.

Again, I'm not adamently opposed to him starting. Beat his inner demons and all that. I'd just prefer Lehner get his shot at the battle of Ontario now.

 

[StefanW]

This is how I feel though (maybe it didn't come through great in my post). I'm not going to go searching through game summaries but I feel like Andy has let in a lot of softies early against the leafs. Bad defense ya, and sure it can happen (and has happened) against any team, but from memory, Andy is weak vs TO.

Again, I'm not adamently opposed to him starting. Beat his inner demons and all that. I'd just prefer Lehner get his shot at the battle of Ontario now.

Agreed. I think Andy is the better goalie overall right now, but I still think Lehner should get the start against TO. This is actually a pretty good opportunity to put up a W, with the Leafs playing the second game of a back to back and with them having to take a short flight in between. Speaking of which, just to add to the discussion above, Kessel was stopped by airport security. They found 150 pounds of crack in the back of his pants.

I am thinking the Sens will have a slow start due to the layoff between games. The Leafs will tire out in the third, and the Sens will come from behind again to win.

 

[WhiteLight*]

Kessel is so fat, the other players orbit around him

 

[Midas0]

Question:

A group of 12 of us are going to the Sens-Leafs game tomorrow - we will be sitting in Sector 319. 4/12 are Leafs fans, and will be wearing jerseys and ****.

Will the 4/12 be moved, or will all 12 of us be moved? How does this work?

I bought the tickets a couple weeks ago, before this policy was put in place.

Cheers folks.