Line Combos: Leafs roster [Before] & [After] and work in progress

[Gabriel426]

I love when people use cumulative series totals and not game by game totals

As if the goals Montreal gave up when they were pressing for a tie are somehow and indictment of poor defensive play

Well, I would say a team that lost a best of seven series after leading 3-1 in the series is not a good look at all. They either can't score or can't defend, either way, that team can't get the job done.

 

[Dekes For Days]

How can Wins not be the most important stat?

Because, as I mentioned, we were discussing team defense. I'm not sure why you think wins would be the most important stat for that.

I don't think you did.

I quite literally did. My post was about the series as a whole. I'm not sure how you're suggesting otherwise when the entire point of contention in the first place was that you wanted to remove games.

 

[Gabriel426]

Because, as I mentioned, we were discussing team defense. I'm not sure why you think wins would be the most important stat for that.

I quite literally did. My post was about the series as a whole. I'm not sure how you're suggesting otherwise when the entire point of contention in the first place was that you wanted to remove games.

I will take the Leafs being the worst defensive and offensive team but ends up winning the Cup.

You do understand that defence, offence and goaltending are just tools to help the team win the game, right?

Like I said before, you do you, bro.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I will take the Leafs being the worst defensive and offensive team but ends up winning the Cup.

The cup is obviously the goal, but this has nothing to do with my post that was addressing a specific comment about defense in the series.

 

[The Iceman]

A couple of the writters at The Athletic placing Leafs 4th overall in their offseason predictions:

4. Toronto Maple Leafs
Dom 12:17 PM
i hate them with every fibre of my being right now. i don’t think they deserve this until they prove something in the playoffs because there is Clearly something between the ears. but the more montreal won in the playoffs, the less monumental the upset felt. don’t get me wrong, it’s still the worst in franchise history (they were up 3-1!) but seeing montreal beat vegas and march all the way to the final alleviated some of that. toronto lost hyman, but didn’t technically lose anyone to expansion, and arguably improved their goaltending. with the age of the leafs core, with the knowledge that this season might be it for them, with everyone else at the top getting worse… it feels like this is where they sit.
Sean 12:19 PM
that is pure, unfiltered Toronto Man. “they’re shit and possibly broken. makes me sick. fourth-best team in the league though.”
Dom 12:21 PM
i hate it here
but i hate it elsewhere a lil bit more
Sean 12:22 PM
i’d rather have mrazek than andersen. nothing bad happened from a cap standpoint. on paper — if you ignore everything else about them — the placement makes sense. why do i only like three teams more than them? what is wrong with me?

 

[Bomber0104]

A couple of the writters at The Athletic placing Leafs 4th overall in their offseason predictions:

4. Toronto Maple Leafs
Dom 12:17 PM
i hate them with every fibre of my being right now. i don’t think they deserve this until they prove something in the playoffs because there is Clearly something between the ears. but the more montreal won in the playoffs, the less monumental the upset felt. don’t get me wrong, it’s still the worst in franchise history (they were up 3-1!) but seeing montreal beat vegas and march all the way to the final alleviated some of that. toronto lost hyman, but didn’t technically lose anyone to expansion, and arguably improved their goaltending. with the age of the leafs core, with the knowledge that this season might be it for them, with everyone else at the top getting worse… it feels like this is where they sit.
Sean 12:19 PM
that is pure, unfiltered Toronto Man. “they’re shit and possibly broken. makes me sick. fourth-best team in the league though.”
Dom 12:21 PM
i hate it here
but i hate it elsewhere a lil bit more
Sean 12:22 PM
i’d rather have mrazek than andersen. nothing bad happened from a cap standpoint. on paper — if you ignore everything else about them — the placement makes sense. why do i only like three teams more than them? what is wrong with me?

Who is "Sean" , what background does he have in hockey, and why does his opinion matter?

Sounds like a homer Leafs fan with a platform off first glance.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Who is "Sean" , what background does he have in hockey, and why does his opinion matter?

Sounds like a homer Leafs fan with a platform off first glance.

How so?

 

[Stonehands1990]

Well, I would say a team that lost a best of seven series after leading 3-1 in the series is not a good look at all. They either can't score or can't defend, either way, that team can't get the job done.

The thing all these “advanced stats” junkies don’t realize is that the series is 7 game segments. Blowing Montreal out 5-1 shouldn’t affect how you judge the other 6 games but because they look at the numbers cumulatively they are mislead. Coaches make adjustments, score affects strategy etc etc

Looking at stats cumulatively only matters if the series is awarded on aggregate which is a soccer thing

It would help if the spreadsheet crowd owned hockey equipment

 

[The Iceman]

Who is "Sean" , what background does he have in hockey, and why does his opinion matter?

Sounds like a homer Leafs fan with a platform off first glance.

Sean Gentille is a Senior Writer for The Athletic, covering the NHL based out of Pittsburgh.

Dom Luszczyszyn is a national NHL reporter for The Athletic who writes primarily about hockey analytics and new ways of looking at the game. Previously he’s also worked at The Hockey News, The Nation Network, and Hockey Graphs.

 

[The Iceman]

Also from the Athletic a salary value report.

3. Toronto Maple Leafs
Last season: 5th

The Leafs always rank high by cap efficiency much to the chagrin of the commenters, but after these last playoffs they obviously have a point. This method ranks every player by their projected regular output and in that case, everyone is indeed delivering with very few actually bad contracts on the books. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander were all overpaid to varying degrees (Marner a lot, Nylander a little) given they were RFAs, but there was never much doubt they would be worth the price. Matthews was a Hart Trophy runner up, Marner is a 100-point threat and Nylander is a quality first-line forward. On the open market, that costs more than what the Leafs are paying.
After seeing what defense went for this free agency, it’s hard not to love what the Leafs have with their top four which comes in at $17.5 million combined and is one of the league’s best. That still feels weird to type for a team that has always sucked in that department.
Aside from Alex Kerfoot, the John Tavares deal which is in its later stages, and David Kampf everyone is paid less than their fair share. That’s to be expected for a team that looked like a legitimate contender last season.
Of course, this is the Leafs. It would be obtuse not to mention that in the playoffs the complete opposite story is true. Slap in their playoff stats and this team is closer to the bottom of the league instead, fully deserving of any “overpaid bum” narrative. On the surface, every player is fairly paid, but until they actually deliver when it counts it doesn’t matter.

 

[Mess]

Last year the Leafs ranked 27th overall in hits per game in the regular season, and the new additions this offseason seem to address that, because come playoff time in can be a difference maker in a series.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Last year the Leafs ranked 27th overall in hits per game in the regular season, and the new additions this offseason seem to address that, because come playoff time in can be a difference maker in a series.

I'd be looking a lot at Simmonds, he wasn't finishing his checks and didn't bring anything else.

 

[ShaneFalco]

I'd be looking a lot at Simmonds, he wasn't finishing his checks and didn't bring anything else.

yeah not sure the rush to bring him back, especially for 2 years. But apparently it was crickets on the bench until he and Joe arrived..... which is another story.....

 

[zeke]

Also from the Athletic a salary value report.

3. Toronto Maple Leafs
Last season: 5th

The Leafs always rank high by cap efficiency much to the chagrin of the commenters, but after these last playoffs they obviously have a point. This method ranks every player by their projected regular output and in that case, everyone is indeed delivering with very few actually bad contracts on the books. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander were all overpaid to varying degrees (Marner a lot, Nylander a little) given they were RFAs, but there was never much doubt they would be worth the price. Matthews was a Hart Trophy runner up, Marner is a 100-point threat and Nylander is a quality first-line forward. On the open market, that costs more than what the Leafs are paying.
After seeing what defense went for this free agency, it’s hard not to love what the Leafs have with their top four which comes in at $17.5 million combined and is one of the league’s best. That still feels weird to type for a team that has always sucked in that department.
Aside from Alex Kerfoot, the John Tavares deal which is in its later stages, and David Kampf everyone is paid less than their fair share. That’s to be expected for a team that looked like a legitimate contender last season.
Of course, this is the Leafs. It would be obtuse not to mention that in the playoffs the complete opposite story is true. Slap in their playoff stats and this team is closer to the bottom of the league instead, fully deserving of any “overpaid bum” narrative. On the surface, every player is fairly paid, but until they actually deliver when it counts it doesn’t matter.

Note that he doesn't include goalies in this analysis, and if he did Campbell/Mrazek for $5.5m would vault TOR into 2nd spot over FLA with Bobrovsky/Knight st $11m.

 

[zeke]

I'd be looking a lot at Simmonds, he wasn't finishing his checks and didn't bring anything else.

It's funny - as the biggest hater of the Simmonds signing last year, I have to say I was pleasantly surprised by his play - even after injury.

Despite his lack of speed he wasn't a defensive liability and clicked with pretty much every line combo he was tried with - even in his brief stints on the top two lines.

 

[WTFMAN99]

It's funny - as the biggest hater of the Simmonds signing last year, I have to say I was pleasantly surprised by his play - even after injury.

Despite his lack of speed he wasn't a defensive liability and clicked with pretty much every line combo he was tried with - even in his brief stints on the top two lines.

I was happy with his regular season.

Disappointed in the post season, Matthews basically doubled the amount of hits dished out.

 

[Bluelines]

Last year the Leafs ranked 27th overall in hits per game in the regular season, and the new additions this offseason seem to address that, because come playoff time in can be a difference maker in a series.

Seems like Dubas try's to fix next year what the problem was last year.

vs CLB the problem was apparently Leadership in comes Spez, Joe, Simmonds, Brodie
vs Mtl Anderson trolly tracked all series - in comes Ritchie and that goon

Why is he fixing what will win last years playin/playoffs vs looking forward and adding what will help in this season?

 

[WTFMAN99]

Seems like Dubas try's to fix next year what the problem was last year.

vs CLB the problem was apparently Leadership in comes Spez, Joe, Simmonds, Brodie
vs Mtl Anderson trolly tracked all series - in comes Ritchie and that goon

Why is he fixing what will win last years playin/playoffs vs looking forward and adding what will help in this season?

Gabriel probably won't suit up for the Leafs, with the cap the way it is, I don't see it.

Lack of physicality will be a problem in the playoffs though, you shouldn't be just getting hammered for 7 games, you need to return fire.

 

[Sypher04]

Seems like Dubas try's to fix next year what the problem was last year.

vs CLB the problem was apparently Leadership in comes Spez, Joe, Simmonds, Brodie
vs Mtl Anderson trolly tracked all series - in comes Ritchie and that goon

Why is he fixing what will win last years playin/playoffs vs looking forward and adding what will help in this season?

The leafs were only eliminated a few months ago. Do you really think our needs changed in any significant way between those 2 points in time? If you're not going to try to correct the missteps of the previous season in the offseason what are you even doing? It's about moving forward and that tends to start with identifying issues and fixing them

 

[Sypher04]

Gabriel probably won't suit up for the Leafs, with the cap the way it is, I don't see it.

Lack of physicality will be a problem in the playoffs though, you shouldn't be just getting hammered for 7 games, you need to return fire.

And yet, physicality had nothing to do with why we lost vs Montreal.

 

[WTFMAN99]

And yet, physicality had nothing to do with why we lost vs Montreal.

Wonder if we got worn down a bit?

 

[Sypher04]

Wonder if we got worn down a bit?

I really think it was the cross checking and interference that wore us down more than anything to do with real physicality

 

[WTFMAN99]

I really think it was the cross checking and interference that wore us down more than anything to do with real physicality

I consider cross checking physicality but not really a stat for it, truly an eye test thing. I know it was cross check city against Montreal and we didn't throw any of our own but that's been the playoffs for years and I doubt it's changing anytime soon.

 

[Sypher04]

I consider cross checking physicality but not really a stat for it, truly an eye test thing. I know it was cross check city against Montreal and we didn't throw any of our own but that's been the playoffs for years and I doubt it's changing anytime soon.

I don't consider crosschecking real physicality personally. It's just stickwork imo. Like it takes zero toughness to repeatedly smash your stick across a players back. I'd prefer to see players make a play for the puck, or take the body with a check. The stick crap drives me kinda nuts tbh

Fwiw, if the refs aren't going to call it, I don't blame teams, especially those like Montreal who have a pretty mediocre roster, for doing it. I also don't expect it to change. I would have liked to see more push back in this regard.

 

[Bluelines]

The leafs were only eliminated a few months ago. Do you really think our needs changed in any significant way between those 2 points in time? If you're not going to try to correct the missteps of the previous season in the offseason what are you even doing? It's about moving forward and that tends to start with identifying issues and fixing them

The need was against Montreal, if we had faced Oilers in the 1st, Winnipeg in the 2nd LV in the 3rd then got beat vs Tampa, is the need still to add Ritchie and that goon or would it be to be more balanced top to bottom? It seems like we are addressing a 7 game problem vs looking at the season as a whole. Say we had Ritchie all year last year are we better over the season + playoffs or worse?