Friedman: Leafs may offer Marner 2 years at 8 mil and wait until cap goes up

[WetcoastOrca]

Do you take pay cuts at your work place for the sake of the company "winning"?

It depends. If the company was losing money and might have to lay people off I might consider it. But if the company is making money hand over fist like MLSE no way. I’d grab the best deal I could. Especially after the deals that were just given to Nylander, Matthews and Tavares. Why should Marner be the only one to take a discount.

 

[CokenoPepsi]

McDavid is the best player in the world and he took less in Friggin Edmonton. Marner can't do the same for his hometown leafs?

Matthews didn't take less why should Marner?

 

[Fataldogg]

I wouldnt even consider that. He is leaving potentially $75M+ on the line. He earned his pay day. Now pay up. He isnt going to accept being treated 2nd tier.

If he gets injured, can never recover, he is out that money.

Why do them a favor?

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

He’s so good, that you can’t even spell his name right.

Maybe if we stop prorating and maybe if Matthews produces more in a single season than Marner, yeah sure.



Why couldn’t Tavares take more of a hometown discount? Why wouldn’t Matthews take a sweetheart deal? Or Nylander?

Why does Marner need to?

I agree with the sentiment of this post, but Tavares did take a discount. He was offered $13M by San Jose and offered the 8th year by the Islanders. He may have taken more than market value but he still left money on the table in order to sign with Toronto.

 

[Cotton]

Tavares didn't take a team friendly deal
Matthews didn't take a team friendly deal.

Why should Marner be the sucker?

Tavares chose to make less to play with the Leafs, so he kind of did take a team friendly deal. Not being team friendly would of been using what the Isles and Sharks were offering as leverage to get the most he could get, not leaving money on the table.

Why should Marner be the sucker? He wouldn't be. Marner should focus on Marner and not what everyone else is getting. If Marner was a Centre who could pot 35-40 goals a year, or hit p/pg+ without having a franchise Centre helping him I'm sure his ask would be seen as a little more understandable.

If he was in arbitration he would have to justify asking to be the highest paid wing in league history without pointing his finger at Matthews, they wouldn't accept that comparable because its nonsense, just as it is on here when people attempt it.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Tavares chose to make less to play with the Leafs, so he kind of did take a team friendly deal. Not being team friendly would of been using what the Isles and Sharks were offering as leverage to get the most he could get, not leaving money on the table.

Why should Marner be the sucker? He wouldn't be. Marner should focus on Marner and not what everyone else is getting. If Marner was a Centre who could pot 35-40 goals a year, or hit p/pg+ without having a franchise Centre helping him I'm sure his ask would be seen as a little more understandable.

If he was in arbitration he would have to justify asking to be the highest paid wing in league history without pointing his finger at Matthews, they wouldn't accept that comparable because its nonsense, just as it is on here when people attempt it.

Your position is understandable as a fan wanting his player at a discount but Marner absolutely has earned the right to expect 8 years and many millions considering where this market has grown to.

 

[Contenderorpretender]

No, what I genuinely don't understand is why Marner would take on all of the risk with no significant upside.

Marner is a top-10 winger in the league. It doesn't matter that he's 22, he's already there. There's a going rate for that sort of player, and it is 8 figures per year.

What if he's not at that level in 2 years? Would the Leafs pay him for past contributions and still give him a raise? Of course not. His only incentive to take a below market short term deal is if he thinks he will be a top-5 player in the league.

Without even getting into the time value of money, with the proposed $8M x 2, let's say he earns a $14M x 8 coming off of that deal (generous, but let's go with it). So as of today, $16M guaranteed, with another $112M in two years. That's $128M in earnings over ten years.

Now let's say his other option right now on a 7 year deal is an average of $10M. So $70M guaranteed, today. He would finish that contract and as a 29 year old UFA need to sign for another three years to match the term of the previous scenario. Would he get $58M over those three years to match the total earnings from the previous scenario? Extremely unlikely, but who knows what the cap looks like at that point.



Let's assume however, that he gets a modest raise, and earns a $12M x 3 at that point. That brings his total earnings to $106M over the ten years, vs $128M in the described bridge / "bet on yourself" model.

I'd happily run a discounted cash flow model to show that he's likely better off taking the front loaded earnings, but we can negate that by assuming the Leafs can easily use signing bonuses and lump sum payments to negate some of those effects.

Still, he'd be giving up a guaranteed additional $58M today to earn a non-inflation adjusted $22M additional over ten years. Is that worth it? I personally would not take the risk, but hey, maybe Mitch Marner would.

Again, I'm not biased against the Leafs here. If Dubas gets it signed it'd be one of the best contracts in the league.



It has nothing to do with the Leafs haha. Bridge deals should be different for superstar players. Brock Boeser is not as good as Marner but I'd put him in a similar spot. The Canucks should be able to get him for an average around $8M, long-term. But if they want to bridge him for two years? It should be $10M. Look at the numbers above.

I get how NHL economics work. It is flawed in my opinion. I can't imagine player agents allow it to continue for much longer.

I still dont think that you understand. Your entire breakdown of this micro marner economics has nothing to do with my previous comment. But thanks for taking the time to break it all down.

 

[joestevens29]

Sports is work for these players. Leafs is a company and if they want to win they most likely have to pay for it. And no people dont willingly take pay cuts all the time.

With the economy a lot of places in Alberta over the past 10 years did just this.

Either people take pay cuts or there were layoffs. Some cases both.

 

[Cotton]

Your position is understandable as a fan wanting his player at a discount but Marner absolutely has earned the right to expect 8 years and many millions considering where this market has grown to.

Marner doesn't want 8 years, he wants 5 years at around 11.5M. He hasn't earned that contract, nor should he expect to get it, he's only earned the right to ask.

Discount has nothing to do with anything, he can either accept something reasonable and fair or hope he's offer-sheeted for what he wants (That's if Dubas doesn't cave).

 

[Hobnobs]

With the economy a lot of places in Alberta over the past 10 years did just this.

Either people take pay cuts or there were layoffs. Some cases both.

Thats forced pay cuts.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Marner doesn't want 8 years, he wants 5 years at around 11.5M. He hasn't earned that contract, nor should he expect to get it, he's only earned the right to ask.

Discount has nothing to do with anything, he can either accept something reasonable and fair or hope he's offer-sheeted for what he wants (That's if Dubas doesn't cave).

Who defines what is reasonable and fair? The team or the player?

 

[Cotton]

Who defines what is reasonable and fair? The team or the player?

Typically the Market, and the market doesn't favour Marner's ask.

 

[NDiesel]

Marner doesn't want 8 years, he wants 5 years at around 11.5M. He hasn't earned that contract, nor should he expect to get it, he's only earned the right to ask.

Discount has nothing to do with anything, he can either accept something reasonable and fair or hope he's offer-sheeted for what he wants (That's if Dubas doesn't cave).

What exactly do you think he has earned? Nylander after back to back seasons of 61 and 61 is worth 6.9 mil long term, then what exactly do you think another winger from the same team coming off of 69 points and 94 points is going to get?

 

[Cotton]

What exactly do you think he has earned? Nylander after back to back seasons of 61 and 61 is worth 6.9 mil long term, then what exactly do you think another winger from the same team coming off of 69 points and 94 points is going to get?

9.5Mx6

 

[RangersHockey15]

Can't see him taking that deal either lol. & all these deals that "won't look bad when the cap goes up" all end up still being high because the cap doesn't go up all that much. It never does

The idea is that in 2 years when the CBA gets opened, and new TV deals are negotiated that the cap is going to go up a decent amount more than it has been.

 

[Byron Bitz]

You mean the guy who scored 21 points less than the Leafs leading scorer who, yes, was Mitch Marner? Why should he take much less than Matthews?

If you pay Matthews 11.6m for 5 years then don't expect your 22 year old leading scorer to take a penny less than 11m on a 5 year deal and more than that on a max term deal.

You would be right if Matthews was the only comparable. He doesn’t even play the same position as Marner. Pastrnak and Gaudreau are better comparables.

 

[Coatsy79]

I can’t imagine why Marner would do that. If he gets injured he’s potentially leaving north of 50 million on the table.

Then he should take the 80m 10 x 8 deal he's already been offered

 

[Kranix]

Then he should take the 80m 10 x 8 deal he's already been offered

He's getting Matthews money dawg

 

[NDiesel]

9.5Mx6

Not a bad number, in a bubble that is a fair deal - the only thing that puts a damper in this plan is that there are probably quite a few teams that would give him more than that. It will comed down to if he wants to play in his hometown or if he wants to chase the money.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

You would be right if Matthews was the only comparable. He doesn’t even play the same position as Marner. Pastrnak and Gaudreau are better comparables.

Pastrnak signed his deal coming off a 70 point season. Before that, he scored 26 points in 51 games.

Gaudreau signed his deal coming off a 78 point season. Before that, he scored 64 points.

Marner is coming off a 93 point season, which is 23 points more than Pastrnak and 15 points more than Gaudreau. His previous season was 69 points, better than both of those guys' previous seasons.

Both of those deals also came when the league cap was lower than it is going into this next season.

Based on what they'd done at the time they signed, why are they better comparables than Matthews?

 

[Karl Eriksson]

Better than Matthews but will take less on a bridge. Ok.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Pastrnak signed his deal coming off a 70 point season. Before that, he scored 26 points in 51 games.

Gaudreau signed his deal coming off a 78 point season. Before that, he scored 64 points.

Marner is coming off a 93 point season, which is 23 points more than Pastrnak and 15 points more than Gaudreau. His previous season was 69 points, better than both of those guys' previous seasons.

Both of those deals also came when the league cap was lower than it is going into this next season.

Based on what they'd done at the time they signed, why are they better comparables than Matthews?

Gaudreau's 78 points was good for 6th in scoring in his contract year. Marner's 94 points was 11th, which is probably more important in terms of comparables. That said, Gaudreau and a few of his other RFA peers were grossly underpaid in the summer of 2016.

 

[Dooble08]

Why would Marner do this?

 

[pylon17]

I don't really think it would even be that smart, because in 2 years, he could command 13-14 million, maybe more and then you're going to wish you had just signed him at 10.8-11.

Give him his 11 million and get it over with. He's not going to take vastly less than Matthews and that whole "well you're a winger so you should just take a lot less" doesn't really fly, Ovechkin got top end money straight away, Patrick Kane never took less than Jonathan Toews.

Agreed, but for 8 years.

 

[vancityluongo]

I still dont think that you understand. Your entire breakdown of this micro marner economics has nothing to do with my previous comment. But thanks for taking the time to break it all down.

I get what you're saying. There's no real precedent for a player to ask for higher on a bridge. NHL teams and agents only seem to value UFA years; players regularly give up tremendous leverage in their RFA years.

But it doesn't make financial sense. This isn't about Marner, or the Leafs, or any one RFA specifically. I'd just be shocked if a superstar player was willing to continue to give up that much value to the team.