Sportsnet: Leafs in middle of most unexpected hot streak

[Dreakmur]

Phaneuf has said he wasn't playing well during that streak, perhaps with his reduced workload that won't be a problem this year. If your supposed best defenseman isn't playing well, and your goaltenders aren't stealing games (maybe some correlation there?) bad things might happen.

If his workload was a problem last season, get ready for more of the same.

Last year:
23:33 minutes per game
2:49 minutes per game on the PK

This year:
23:28 minutes per game
3:01 minutes per game on the PK

 

[HellasLEAF]

The similarities are a bit striking though.

 

[Tyler Biggs*]

I'm not too worried about the shot totals from the last couple of games. Obviously they need to tighten up a bit. However, the first game against the Wings was the 2nd of a back to back against a fresh Wings team. The Kings game on Sunday was also the 2nd of a back to back against another fresh team, and last game was the 3rd in 4 nights also against a fresh Ducks team. These are games you usually just need to grind out, and that is what they did. Also while the Ducks did have a lot of possession, I think the Leafs did a good job of keeping them along the boards, and making sure that Bernier got good looks at the majority of the shots.

 

[Durrr]

I'm not sure if this has been mentioned in here, but it's worth noting that even analytic obsessed media (Mirtle) have alluded to the Leafs being a better team this year. Mirtle specifically said he believes this team is 5-10 points better overall. Thing is, it's also the same media personalities that cry when teams win on the scoresheet, but the analytics were poor.

Fact is we have much more depth and balance in the line-up right now. Our team possession stats are being dragged down by the first line, but we aren't winning games solely because of them right now, which gives me some hope that this season is more sustainable.

 

[hoglund]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/leafs-in-middle-of-most-unexpected-hot-streak/

Funny how no one says this when the Habs get out shot constantly and still win.

Who wrote this article? Buzz Killington?? Sportsnet always got to find something negative they are playing well so shut the hell up.

Leafs have a groove going on. Four lines scored last night. Bernier and Reimer are solid.

That is so true, the Habs have more non regulation wins than any other team, that's why their goal differential is so small, they scored 87 and allowed 80 after 32 games, they should be 2 or 3 games above .500 with 36 or 37 points. The Leafs have scored 109 and allowed 87 after 31 games, they should be 9 or 10 games above .500 with 49 or 50 points. The Habs have made the most of their goals, that's for sure, but if either team has a surprisingly good record for game play, it's the Habs. It is early and things can change, but if I were a Habs fan, I'd be happy we're 2 points ahead of a team that were should be 12 points behind.

 

[dougieg93]

It more appears to me that the type of hockey the leafs play is rather successful in the first half of the season, and we still have yet to see how the Leafs will adapt when teams start playing a more playoff brand of hockey.

I'm not too disapointed with the corsi percentage, considering they are playing the type of hockey that is successful in amassing points during the start of the season. It's only a matter of time before teams become more patient and waiting for the leafs to make a mistake like they did last year, and we will see the collapse we did last year if the leafs can't adapt their style of play.

 

[Einzakin]

I'm not too worried about the shot totals from the last couple of games. Obviously they need to tighten up a bit. However, the first game against the Wings was the 2nd of a back to back against a fresh Wings team. The Kings game on Sunday was also the 2nd of a back to back against another fresh team, and last game was the 3rd in 4 nights also against a fresh Ducks team. These are games you usually just need to grind out, and that is what they did. Also while the Ducks did have a lot of possession, I think the Leafs did a good job of keeping them along the boards, and making sure that Bernier got good looks at the majority of the shots.

Dude. I feel like you're too emotional with regards to this.

We have been getting pretty badly outplayed. It is nice to see us on such a huge winstreak, but its happened before.

Seriously Im so pumped the Leafs are winning, but it seems inevitable we will collapse. We will play the next 17 of 22 on the road, after playing the least road games in the league I believe.

Don't get ahead of yourself. We may still make the playoffs, but if we are even to compete for a cup major changes need to occur.

Bring on the Leaf defenders. I'm sorry if I offended you.

Edit: And so what if they didn't talk about the habs winning streak. What are they our brother and we feel like mommy is treating us unfairly. Get outta here with that crap. I only worry about the Leafs.

 

[hoglund]

Dude. I feel like you're too emotional with regards to this.

We have been getting pretty badly outplayed. It is nice to see us on such a huge winstreak, but its happened before.

Seriously Im so pumped the Leafs are winning, but it seems inevitable we will collapse. We will play the next 17 of 22 on the road, after playing the least road games in the league I believe.

Don't get ahead of yourself. We may still make the playoffs, but if we are even to compete for a cup major changes need to occur.

Bring on the Leaf defenders. I'm sorry if I offended you.

Edit: And so what if they didn't talk about the habs winning streak. What are they our brother and we feel like mommy is treating us unfairly. Get outta here with that crap. I only worry about the Leafs.

I sort of agree with the number of road games, their record is likely to drop, but if they make the playoffs, they CAN compete for the cup, the Kings barely scraped into the playoffs a few years ago and WON the cup and they only had a few more points than the Leafs. Making the playoffs is what you need to do, after that EVERY team competes for the cup. There are a few changes needed, but every team can say that, this year only a few teams like Edmonton or Carolina won't be competing for the cup, the rest of the teams are pretty much evenly matched, so it's really a toss up to predict the winner this year.

 

[Willy Styles]

The more and more I read these forums the more and more I realize that there are less fans and more critics. If your not going be optimistic of a team that's currently 10-1-1 in their last 12 when the hell are you going to be optimistic.

We collpased once. ONCE. People act as if we've been playing this well and collapsed 5-6 years in a row. Give me a break and go be a critic somewhere else, just don't consider yourself a fan.

 

[dougieg93]

I think we collapsed twice, the season where Wilson was fired, and the 18 wheeler

 

[hoglund]

I think we collapsed twice, the season where Wilson was fired, and the 18 wheeler

you're right, the one game collapse in the playoffs is ONE game, the other two years were a month long collapse, which is more worthy of the word. The blown lead on Boston hurt emotionally because it happened in a short time and it was the playoffs, but it was ONE game. You're right this really shouldn't count as a collapse, there were 2 collapses.

 

[Willy Styles]

you're right, the one game collapse in the playoffs is ONE game, the other two years were a month long collapse, which is more worthy of the word. The blown lead on Boston hurt emotionally because it happened in a short time and it was the playoffs, but it was ONE game. You're right this really shouldn't count as a collapse, there were 2 collapses.

The Wilson season we werent good. That was a sub par team sub par goaltending. We were somewhere around 8-10 spot the whole season, we were never in a solid playoff spot like this year and last year. I would not consider that a collapse because we were mediocre all season.

 

[dougieg93]

The Wilson season we werent good. That was a sub par team sub par goaltending. We were somewhere around 8-10 spot the whole season, we were never in a solid playoff spot like this year and last year. I would not consider that a collapse because we were mediocre all season.

2011-2012 was definitely a collapse, they went from a playoff bubble team to getting the 5th overall pick in the draft. They lost 18 of their last 24 games.

 

[Mess]

I love the title of the thread.

Its says Leafs in the middle of most unexpected hot streak .

That suggests that the 10-1-1 record current record is just the middle or 1/2 way point of this hot streak and we can look forward to another hot streak in the next 12 games to reach the end of it.

 

[Razz]

It's hard to blame fans for being worried. There are a lot of similarities to the team that collapsed last year, almost eerie really. The key difference this year is the depth.

We'll see if they can keep it up all year long. I think it will come down to injuries. This year we have the depth which could be the difference maker. Last year when we lost key guys, our 4th line had to move up...Orr, McClement, Marlies...eesh.

 

[Einzakin]

I sort of agree with the number of road games, their record is likely to drop, but if they make the playoffs, they CAN compete for the cup, the Kings barely scraped into the playoffs a few years ago and WON the cup and they only had a few more points than the Leafs. Making the playoffs is what you need to do, after that EVERY team competes for the cup. There are a few changes needed, but every team can say that, this year only a few teams like Edmonton or Carolina won't be competing for the cup, the rest of the teams are pretty much evenly matched, so it's really a toss up to predict the winner this year.

With one small exception, the Kings were the best analytics team in the NHL if I recall? Many people were calling them cup contenders

 

[TheProspector]

Leafs possession statistics are still low (partly by system eliminating high quality shots and taking high quality shots), but they are improving.

Because of the system and the players, the Leafs probably need an Even Strength, Within 1 Fenwick of 47-48% to remain competitive. They are running 46% on the season. There is no doubt that Leafs' PDO of 103.3% represents outsized luck to date, but with the system and players, they should probably be at least a 101-102.

With a more sustainable PDO of 101-102 and ES Close Fenwick of 48%, they're probably still in a wildcard position, but with less points. It is an example of the gambler's fallacy to assume that this winning streak that includes outsized puck luck necessarily leads to a reversion to the same magnitude on the downside. It's equally likely that they fall to earth, and put up more reasonable numbers and win at a more sustainable (maybe 55-60% of points) pace.

All that said... Bernier is a great goalie, and Kadri, Kessel, Lupul, JVR and even Bozak are an embarrassment of up front talent up front, and our depth players with Komarov, Winnik, Santorelli, etc are better than they have been in years.

This is not a bad team at all. It's a good thing we got a lot of points so far, because it'll still be a dogfight to the finish line.

 

[AustonMitchWilly]

If his workload was a problem last season, get ready for more of the same.

Last year:
23:33 minutes per game
2:49 minutes per game on the PK

This year:
23:28 minutes per game
3:01 minutes per game on the PK

I believe his defense zone start % is way down though.

 

[Daisy Jane]

The final 16 games last year, the Leafs accumulated 5 out of a possible 32 points. It is highly improbable that can happen to this team again.

and let's remember why: everything that went bad, went bad.
our starter was hurt
the backup was probably concussed.
the first line that was generating any type of offense were plumb out of gas and injured to boot)
the defense basically had nothing more to give after spending 1/2 of the game every game in the defensive zone for the entire season.

everything fell off.

It drives me insane that everyone goes everything is the "the same" it isn't. yes. I get it, our advanced stat numbers are indicating certain things and for all i know, it will end up with us missing out one more time.

but to even indicate that yes -we'll lose 12 of 14 games down the stretch based on how we're playing now - is crazy.

 

[Derrty]

and let's remember why: everything that went bad, went bad.
our starter was hurt
the backup was probably concussed.
the first line that was generating any type of offense were plumb out of gas and injured to boot)
the defense basically had nothing more to give after spending 1/2 of the game every game in the defensive zone for the entire season.

everything fell off.

It drives me insane that everyone goes everything is the "the same" it isn't. yes. I get it, our advanced stat numbers are indicating certain things and for all i know, it will end up with us missing out one more time.

but to even indicate that yes -we'll lose 12 of 14 games down the stretch based on how we're playing now - is crazy.

Agreed, on all counts.

 

[Tyler Biggs*]

Leafs have more depth this year then they've had in a long time

 

[X66]

People that are comfortable with how the Leafs are playing don't understand the game at a higher level, it's really that simple.

This teams possession stat is going to get them nowhere fast.

 

[X66]

Leafs have more depth this year then they've had in a long time

I agree wholeheartedly, but that doesn't matter when the same person is behind the bench.

In a game of chess, it doesn't matter what pieces you have if the player implements a poor strategy.

 

[X66]

The similarities are a bit striking though.

Exactly.

Robidas himself was on TSNradio today saying that the Leafs have not won the right way.

You need Structure and Skill to be successful, the Leafs only have skill.

If you only have one of the two, you can win games on those merits, but you won't achieve long term success because you need both to sustain high level play.