Sportsnet: Leafs in middle of most unexpected hot streak

[Tyler Biggs*]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/leafs-in-middle-of-most-unexpected-hot-streak/

Funny how no one says this when the Habs get out shot constantly and still win.

Who wrote this article? Buzz Killington?? Sportsnet always got to find something negative they are playing well so shut the hell up.

Leafs have a groove going on. Four lines scored last night. Bernier and Reimer are solid.

Click to read more...

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Yes exactly like last year's hot streak, and the year before... and the year before... before collapse.

Leafs went like 11-2-1 last year before they collapsed in the last quarter of the season, because the team wasn't playing great, they just had stellar goaltending (which isn't sustainable -- you think Bernier is going to maintain a .930+ Sv% like he has in this streak?) and a hot streak in shooting (do you think Leafs are going to continue scoring on almost 15% of their shots? 10-11% is more realistic).

You say they have been playing good hockey, but all analysts, and the coach and the players say no.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

From Mirtle:

In fact, Toronto went 11-2-1 prior to the Olympic break last season, and there are certainly some similarities in the two streaks.

In that run, the Leafs scored a league-high 51 goals in 14 games (3.64 per game) with a league-high 12.5 shooting percentage and were outshot an average of 35.8 to 29.1.

In their current 12-game streak, the Leafs have scored a league-high 49 goals (4.08 per game) with a league-high 14.2 per cent shooting percentage and have been outshot an average of 34.1 to 28.8.

In terms of analytics, last year’s hot streak came with a 44.3 per cent possession rating, better than only Buffalo over the same time frame.

This year, it’s 42.7 per cent.

Which is better than only Buffalo.

If anything, this run is more unsustainable than that one.

Do you really think they're playing good hockey? They're getting by on talent and streaks, but if they can't turn things around and get better possession out of their top line, they're doomed to fail yet again.

 

[The Apologist]

From Mirtle:



Do you really think they're playing good hockey? They're getting by on talent and streaks, but if they can't turn things around and get better possession out of their top line, they're doomed to fail yet again.

Is it really so bad for Leaf fans to just enjoy the ride?

Why is the media so intent on tearing this team down? Honestly?

 

[paulster2626]

If the leafs defy the odds all of last season and this season save for a 15 game stretch where they couldn't win if their lives depended on it, please tell me which one is a small sample size, and tell me how something that lasts for 92 or so games is 'unsustainable'.

Watching the leafs this year i don't get that same hanging on by their fingernails feeling as last year. Anyone got a spreadsheet for that?

 

[Jmo89]

This team has alot to prove before fans and analysts don't question them. Do I expect them to win the division? Not really. Make the playoffs? Maybe, but not holding my breath.

That said this article is all kinds of stupid, not because its wrong about the stats but because its conclusions are false.

A ten year could tell you that going at a pace of 10-1-1 for the rest of the season is unsustainable. Aside from the top 3-4 teams in the league most winning streaks are unsustainable when spread across a full season. This is why they are called streaks.

The article main as well say "the Leafs wont continue winning at their 10-1-1 pace because of x, x, and x." Well thanks captain obvious, most teams don't play at such a pace. X doesn't need to be known. 99% of fans already know a team isn't going to win at that pace all season long.

Does it really surprise anyone that a team on a STREAK has unsustainable stats? Is that not why its called a streak?

The real question is are they going to hit another streak on the opposite end of the spectrum (1-10-1) or will they pick themselves up after a few losses. Or how about examining their play while not on any streak?

Edit: I should have mentioned that I don't think all winning streaks are done with unsustainable stats, but I do think many of them are, especially with non-top 5 teams. My overall point I guess is that a streak shouldn't be used to judge the entirety of a season. Frankly I see it as poor fact checking and lazy writing. The entirety of a season should be examined.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Yes exactly like last year's hot streak, and the year before... and the year before... before collapse.

Bingo.

 

[Leafidelity]

Yes exactly like last year's hot streak, and the year before... and the year before... before collapse.

Are you telling me hockey teams have gone on hot streaks before and not won the cup?

Some insightful stuff right here.

 

[Tyler Biggs*]

Yes exactly like last year's hot streak, and the year before... and the year before... before collapse.

Leafs went like 11-2-1 last year before they collapsed in the last quarter of the season, because the team wasn't playing great, they just had stellar goaltending (which isn't sustainable -- you think Bernier is going to maintain a .930+ Sv% like he has in this streak?) and a hot streak in shooting (do you think Leafs are going to continue scoring on almost 15% of their shots? 10-11% is more realistic).

You say they have been playing good hockey, but all analysts, and the coach and the players say no.

The stats are similar, but I wouldn't go as far as compare this team to last years team. Toronto has more veteran depth and sound leadership in the dressing room now. Let's keep positive, not wait for failure and support this team. They are earning the right for us to party.

Just the fact they can roll 4 lines is enough separation from last years team.

 

[Tyler Biggs*]

Last I checked all teams start with goaltending and it is ok for the goaltending to steal a game.

Talk to Price. And Lundqvist. And every other exceptional goaltender in the game.

 

[thinkinfeller]

Are you telling me hockey teams have gone on hot streaks before and not won the cup?

Some insightful stuff right here.

There are millions of posts on this forum, is it your expectation that they all be "insightful"?

Do you believe that this team is a Cup contender?

 

[SprDaVE]

It's fun to win and this winning streak has been great but I think we can all agree that we haven't played overly well over that stretch as a team.

They need to play better and a more complete game in order for them to keep up a good pace. I don't mean a 10-1-1 pace, but at least a pace of around 96 points.

But really, for now, I'm enjoying this. I just hope they can keep up their high tempo pace and not start games terribly or just stop playing when they are up a couple goals. We tend to give up a ton of shots when we are up, and that's not what you want.

 

[Leafidelity]

There are millions of posts on this forum, is it your expectation that they all be "insightful"?

Do you believe that this team is a Cup contender?

I think this is a team that is 1 win away from winning 20 games before Christmas break for the 4th time in franchise history. I also think this is a good team on a great streak. Not an awful team defying logic like some people would have you think.

The problem last year wasn't the first half of the season, it was not finding a way to shore things up by the second half. I'd much prefer they work on deficiencies while winning.

Why do they have to be a cup contender? Why can't they just be good? Do you believe this a lottery team? Probably not.

I'm beginning to think some people would be happier if they were on a losing streak.

 

[The Apologist]

I think this is a team that is 1 win away from winning 20 games before Christmas break for the 4th time in franchise history. I also think this is a good team on a great streak. Not an awful team defying logic like some people would have you think.

The problem last year wasn't the first half of the season, it was not finding a way to shore things up by the second half. I'd much prefer they work on deficiencies while winning.

Why do they have to be a cup contender? Why can't they just be good? Do you believe this a lottery team? Probably not.

I'm beginning to think some people would be happier if they were on a losing streak.

There is a certain portion of this forum that literally lives for the next loss just to trot out the 'I told you so'.

I can't imagine what it's like to be a fan and constantly wait for the next failure or always expecting the worst. Why be a fan then?

 

[Bedards Dad]

Yes exactly like last year's hot streak, and the year before... and the year before... before collapse.

Leafs went like 11-2-1 last year before they collapsed in the last quarter of the season, because the team wasn't playing great, they just had stellar goaltending (which isn't sustainable -- you think Bernier is going to maintain a .930+ Sv% like he has in this streak?) and a hot streak in shooting (do you think Leafs are going to continue scoring on almost 15% of their shots? 10-11% is more realistic).

You say they have been playing good hockey, but all analysts, and the coach and the players say no.

Would you rather them out shoot teams an lose? Or would you rather them win 2 lose 2? I mean we have a streak going, it must mean we are in a worse position than if we weren't.

While we still might be outshot this year, it is buy 3.5 per game, rather than 8. Off the top of my head (because I cant remember exactly). NHL shooting % is around 9%? (Correct me if I'm wrong), so that means there should be a goal every 10ish shots. At this rate we Would have an extra goal scored every 3ish games, rather than one extra almost every game. When you have a goal differential of over 20, it seems like we are still able to win without much issue.

But hey, you do what you do, complain, don't bother enjoying the wins, not my problem.

 

[Funk21]

From Mirtle:



Do you really think they're playing good hockey? They're getting by on talent and streaks, but if they can't turn things around and get better possession out of their top line, they're doomed to fail yet again.

Wait you telling me they are winning because of talent?, geez what is world coming too. I thought winning games was about scoring more goals than your opponent not possession, your top lines and your bottom six adding to the teams performance, which they are. Your goalies making timely stops when needed and giving time to your boys to add that first goal, tie the game or pad the lead. Hey would we all like to see them play a better possession game, yes. Is there a chance they could go into a long losing streak, of course but so could any team. Do I see it happening as easily as previous teams, no because our depth on all four lines, the lack of controversy in net, and new assitant coaches who actally are teaching the team a thing or two about how to run a defensive system have all added to a team that believes in itself and has the talent to make stops, and score a ton of goals. Look i think as leafs fan we are always going to look at the negative, its built into our DNA but right now I'm enjoying the ride.

 

[danron1376]

10-1-1 = 143 point season. no team is that good so of course it's not sustainable.
as for a potential collapse, some points to consider:
-we have a different team with improved depth. some of our collapse last year was due to overplaying our 1st line and having a nonexistent 4th.
-1st line will be less likely to be burned out due to the previous point
-bernier needs to stay healthy
-improved leadership (komarov)
-no olympics which tired out some of our star players (kessel/jvr)

 

[dubplatepressure]

There is a certain portion of this forum that literally lives for the next loss just to trot out the 'I told you so'.

I can't imagine what it's like to be a fan and constantly wait for the next failure or always expecting the worst. Why be a fan then?

The condition you describe was learned. When the opportunity exists so frequently as it does here, how is it surprising? In the face of cliff dives the last what 3 years? 4 years? How can people even now continue to look no further than the 'We're winning' mindset.

 

[Al14]

It's fun to win and this winning streak has been great but I think we can all agree that we haven't played overly well over that stretch as a team.

They need to play better and a more complete game in order for them to keep up a good pace. I don't mean a 10-1-1 pace, but at least a pace of around 96 points.

But really, for now, I'm enjoying this. I just hope they can keep up their high tempo pace and not start games terribly or just stop playing when they are up a couple goals. We tend to give up a ton of shots when we are up, and that's not what you want.

I too am really enjoying this winning streak! It would be a really nice Christmas gift, if they could win the rest of their games before the holiday break!

Go LEAFS Go.

 

[paulster2626]

The condition you describe was learned. When the opportunity exists so frequently as it does here, how is it surprising? In the face of cliff dives the last what 3 years? 4 years? How can people even now continue to look no further than the 'We're winning' mindset.

Because at the end of the day, watching hockey is supposed to be just for fun.

 

[Duffman955]

This team is always going to have doubters and rightfully so.

But I think we are 1 solid defenseman away from a great team

 

[Commander Clueless]

The trick isn't ridiculous hot streaks being sustainable - the trick is your hot streaks outweighing your cold ones.


The Leafs have talent. Let's not pretend this is all luck.


The question isn't "can they sustain this" (because that's an obvious no), it's "can they avoid a giant cold streak"? They'll undoubtedly level off a bit at the very least.

 

[ULF_55]

Is it really so bad for Leaf fans to just enjoy the ride?

Why is the media so intent on tearing this team down? Honestly?

Leafs 3 top scorers are on the 1st. line, and that line is continuously torn down around here.

What's the difference between the media spouting off about crappy CORSI and the fans here misusing CORSI for individual players?

 

[Derrty]

The final 16 games last year, the Leafs accumulated 5 out of a possible 32 points. It is highly improbable that can happen to this team again.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Because at the end of the day, watching hockey is supposed to be just for fun.

A dismissive approach is only taken when no other reasonable rebuttals can be formulated.

Besides, I still immensely enjoy watching and playing hockey. And discussing it. Here.