Speculation: Leafs due to repeat history?

[HellasLEAF]

I disagree with this thread.

Last night was more a rare example and reminder of last years team. The Wings are just flat out better than us. Especially in their own rink, and our team playing the tail end of a back to back.

This win is to be applauded imo. Not to be picked apart. We gutted one out and our goaltender stole us some points. How many times have we really been able to say that this year..

 

[HamiltonNHL]

The biggest issue is defense the leafs offense is great

Defensively the only one making real strides is Cody Franson and you know its the result of a contract year. Phaneuf has been close to earning his contract but is still that #2 guy, Gardiner looks like one of the worst players on the ice (huge regression), Rielly hasnt taken a real next step (plenty of time with him and I am not worried), Robidas looks too old for anything but bottom pairing, Polak is a bottom pairing guy that adds some physicality but makes risky plays. Holzer has been steady but he is what he is

1) ___
2) Phaneuf
3) ___
4) Franson
5) Rielly
6) Polak, Robidas, Holzer
7) Gardiner

This is roughly the level they are playing too

To fill spot 1 = $8 million
To fill spot 3 = $5 million

Where are the Leafs going to get $13 million ?

 

[leafsfuture]

I dont know if Leafs will repeat history. But I wouldnt bet on a collapse for the following reasons.

1. A strong PK
-- our PK has been pretty much terrible every year save the lockout year, when, coincidently we made the playoffs. Another common denominator is Leo Komarov, as well as good goaltending. Winnik has also helped as he was a top league PKer last year with Anaheim. Holland has performed admirably as well with his size and good anticipation. He seems to thrive when play is more open

2. Forward depth
-- Komarv, Winnik, Santa, Holland all in top 9 roles. Panik also on the 4th line adds some skill. We also have guys in the minors who can play a solid 4th line game -- Leivo, Smith etc. The key though is that we have guys who can create plays in the o-zone. Last night in the 3rd when Carlyle put out Kozun-Winnik-Panik in a o-zone shift, I wasnt all to concerned because they showed they can at least do some work

3. Knowledge of the past
-- after 3 epic collapses in 3 years, everyone is preparing for the same to happen now. I am sure the coaches (with management prodding) are preparing for this. We know what happens when you lean too much on Dion/Phil and co. Dion's minutes were high last night, but I think that was more a situational thing, and not a trend of this year. While possession numbers still arent great, the improvement is definitely a sign that management knows its an issue, and is taking steps to improve it

4. The Atlantic division is weak
-- Buffalo and Ottawa arent very strong. Florida is probably playing above their actual level right now and they are still in the bottom. While Chara is back, Boston's defence is still much weaker now due to losing Boychuck and co. Montreal is strong, but its a good stylistic matchup for us. Really Detroit is the only team I fear right now

5. Goaltending is sustainable
-- last night WAS reminiscent of last year, but overall, Reimer and Bernier have stole that many games for us this year. Goaltending has been solid, but not outstanding. I cant imagine goaltending getting worse than this. Also, things are more stable this year in terms of hierarchy. Bernier is the go-to guy, but Reimer will get plenty of games, and Carlyle has shown he isnt afraid to play his "backup" against top teams

 

[Bullseye]

Since Polak and Komarov's injuries they have been allowing more and more shots.

I think history has repeated itself already - like Bolland's injury last season the Leafs may be waiting for Leo to recover for awhile and when he comes back will he be his old self?

Draft well Hunter!

 

[Alerion]

We're scoring almost 0.5 goals per game more (partially due to the second highest shooting percentage in the league) than last season while allowing the same amount of goals. Our save % is middle of the pack and worse than last year, even though we're giving up 3 less shots per game, while taking 2 more (due to the revamped bottom 6). Our CF% is up 3% but is still quite poor at 45.9%.

This all pretty much confirms the eye test...the Leafs have improved marginally defensively but are still a talented offensive team with many defensive shortcomings. I wouldn't say they're repeating history, as all areas of concern from last year have statistically improved, but they're still not the model of a strong team.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Kadri is the superior player now and will continue to improve..Bozak is a good depth player. WTF is with him and shootouts? Does he ever miss? Never been a fan of Bozak but I gotta admit he has some specialties that can really help a team out over 82 games. Faceoffs..shootouts are his strength. But for first line duties, I cannot for the life of me understand why Kadri is not centering that line.

because it's been tried it doesn't work

 

[hockeyfanz*]

because it's been tried it doesn't work

OMG that is such BS.....I really dislike BS.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

OMG that is such BS.....I really dislike BS.

It has been tried it hasn't worked what's bs about that? Prove me wrong you can't because it's true

 

[Diatomic]

It has been tried it hasn't worked what's bs about that? Prove me wrong you can't because it's true

What a terrible argument.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

What a terrible argument.

You have a picture of Kadri so of course you will say its a terrible argument that doesn't change the fact that's it's the truth whenever they try it it fails that's a fact you don't have to like it but you do have to accept it

 

[KuleminFan41]

Every team in the league wins games just like last night. Leafs know they can't play like that again and expect to win. The teams performances overall are nothing like last season and the shot vs shot statistics are a lot closer even if we get outshot by 3 shots its hardly worth noting. The Leafs performances are much better , last season we'd be out played in nearly every single game , now the Leafs have outplayed other teams which is nice to see. Will we collapse at the end of the year? I don't know, I think we'll do better but secure a playoff spot? Not too sure

 

[silentbob37*]

So far this year Kessel and the team has played more consistently then last year and the 2-3 years before that.

Obviously there is still the posibility of an epic collapse, but we haven't seen the extreme up and down play we saw last year. Thats the good thing

The bad, that means we might be seeing the best this group has to offer.

 

[hoglund]

Realistically, our advanced stats have not been pretty again. Last night we won a game we had no business winning and got by on the strength of our league leading high shooting percentange (leading league) and great goaltending.

Obviously these games happen last night, but for the most part it looks similar to last year. Are the Leafs destined to face the same fate that met them last season when they collapsed?

If they continue to be outshot, they need to use BOTH goalies equally, so each stays sharp and neither gets over worked and burned out.

 

[Al14]

Leafs have currently played the most home games in the NHL this year and winning at home is always easier than on the road in general for most teams.

Because of the WJC in TO this year the Leafs will hit the road in late Dec and Jan and end up playing something like 11 of 15 games on the road during one upcoming stretch playing in some tough building to win.

This is where the team's results will really be tested, when travel and home team has the last change advantage.

There are plenty of rinks in the NHL where the number of Leaf fans often rival the home team fans. So, we have no excuse for sometimes losing in places like Buffalo and Ottawa, where it's like a home game for our Leafs!

 

[The CyNick]

I disagree with this thread.

Last night was more a rare example and reminder of last years team. The Wings are just flat out better than us. Especially in their own rink, and our team playing the tail end of a back to back.

This win is to be applauded imo. Not to be picked apart. We gutted one out and our goaltender stole us some points. How many times have we really been able to say that this year..

Flat out better? Jokes, we're even in the series with them.

 

[Maplebeasts]

If they continue to be outshot, they need to use BOTH goalies equally, so each stays sharp and neither gets over worked and burned out.

No. You play your best goalie more often, which is Bernier but I don't want the thread to get into a fanboy war. Let Reimer play some on back to backs and when Bernier actually says to Carlyle he needs a game off. Otherwise you play the goalie who gives you your best chance to win

 

[hoglund]

No. You play your best goalie more often, which is Bernier but I don't want the thread to get into a fanboy war. Let Reimer play some on back to backs and when Bernier actually says to Carlyle he needs a game off. Otherwise you play the goalie who gives you your best chance to win

WRONG, if you're getting outshot most nights, the goalie is overworked and more prone to injuries. Bernier is the #1 goalie if they play well in front of him and the only time Reimer is needed is during back to back games, but if they continue to be out shot then they have to go to the 1A, 1B goalie format, hopefully the Detroit game was a fluke, it HAS been a long time since they were outshot by that much, most games seem to be pretty even.

 

[613Leafer]

DESTINED to repeat the fate of having a collapse? Absolutely not. Is it a very real possibility though? Sure. But even in saying that, I think the team does look noticeably better than last season. Kadri has improved his overall game, Komarov/Santorelli are great additions, the 4th line is much better, and the blueline looks somewhat better.

Our shot differential at even strength last season was 34.9 vs 26.7 (shots against and shots for per 60 minutes 5 on 5 play). This season both the shots against (32.5) and shots for (28.5) have improved.

If we can maintain above average goaltending and good special teams, we can absolutely be a playoff team, even if we have a weak shot differential.

It's not ideal, and it SHOULD be a focus of management to improve (our top forward line specifically needs major reworking IMO). But a negative shot differential doesn't mean you're automatically going to fall apart.

 

[TheProspector]

This team is better. And the fancy stats support that. See our Fenwick over the past few years:

(From War On Ice)

It's not necessarily a bad thing to have a slightly below average Fenwick and higher than average PDO. A good team can win that way by keeping shots to the outside, holding on to the puck to make higher probability plays in the offensive zone, and flat out having more talented snipers and goaltending.

But that's obviously not going to work if we're outshot 2:1 every night; but we mostly haven't been. Our possession statistics are improving, and given the systems in place as well as the players, we can win with the current crew.

 

[WTFMAN99]

So a similar trend. We went on a nice run there, but advanced stats were pretty bad. Mess had pointed out we were aided by high shooting percentage and ridiculous goaltending.

Last 2 games the heavy amount of chances against are catching up to us. Our schedule from here until the end of January is not friendly.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Yeah this road trip could get real ugly, real fast.

Better now than the end of the season. If we drop out before the TDL we can blow it up and actually get assets back.

 

[34]

No play-offs again.

 

[ponder]

Our depth forwards are a bit better than before, and our d's a bit better too, but the core of the team is the same as before, and still not very good.

I don't think we're about to absolutely implode, but I see us being more along the lines of "a bit better than last year" than "completely new team." I see us as a borderline playoff team, either just in or just out, and likely a first round exit if we make it.