Speculation: Leafs due to repeat history?

[hockeyfanz*]

I don't believe what we are doing is sustainable but I don't think they are going to collapse either. Why does everyone fail to mention that Bernier got hurt last year during that stretch? Almost every team would go on an extended losing streak if their number 1 goalie goes down.

Leafs won 2 of their last 16 games last year. Are you kidding me? Who should have been in net? Terry Sawchuk? No good hockey team loses like that even with their backup goalie. Just another convenient excuse for the deniers.

 

[Mess]

I don't believe what we are doing is sustainable but I don't think they are going to collapse either. Why does everyone fail to mention that Bernier got hurt last year during that stretch? Almost every team would go on an extended losing streak if their number 1 goalie goes down.

Leafs have been very fortunate up this point in terms of injuries not missing many players of any significance.

Case in point Leafs and Bruins are close in the standings at present but Boston has been without Chara and Krejci for a long period of time. If Leafs lost Phaneuf and Bozak for a similar amount of games how would the results look now?

Injuries are apart of the game and do happen to all teams so Leafs depth will actually be tested when injuries hit the Leafs not when they're relatively healthy.

We do have to hope for good health this year or history might repeat itself again.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

You can ignore all the signs of team destined for the crapper...just don't be surprised or disappointed when it happens. Yes the depth is better. Guys like Komorov and Sanotrelli have been really good....but the core is the core and the coach is the coach...nothing has changed in that regard. The team looks very much the same with shots against and scoring opportunities against. I say if the Leaf goaltending tandem cannot sustain a .920 SV% , this team isn't going to make the playoffs.

I don't like the makeup of this team. At all. I hope that some wholesale changes are made. Including the GM and coach. Seen enough of both of them.

Yes the coach needs to go and Nonissue needs to go to but that doesn't change the FACT it is a FACT advanced stats had NOTHING to do with our slide the only reason it happened is because of the injury to Bernier that's it that's ALL there was to it

 

[Stephen]

we have better depth but with bozak on that first line getting dominated every night...i could definitely see us tanking if bernier/reimer cant steal games down the stretch

Bozak isn't an ideal number one center, but that line is being dominated offensively because you have two wingers in Kessel and JVR who just don't contribute a two way game and get exploited by the opposition.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Yes the coach needs to go and Nonissue needs to go to but that doesn't change the FACT it is a FACT advanced stats had NOTHING to do with our slide the only reason it happened is because of the injury to Bernier that's it that's ALL there was to it

The Leafs gave up the most shots in history. His injury was likely a product of that.

I disagree that Bernier's injury was the only reason the Leafs failed to make the playoffs.

The high shots against and quality of chances against were a big factor too.

Team is winning right now, it feels good, but overall it just feels like the team is flawed.

 

[jmart21]

if we lose that game last night, it just gets chalked up as a loss where we got outplayed on the 2nd night of a back to back.

 

[Dustin]

Denying what? There was a collapse. That being said take away key players to a mediocre team and what do you think happens? The Leafs at the time should have been a .500 team. Lose your starting goalie and you can kiss winning half of your games goodbye.

 

[Dustin]

Leafs have been very fortunate up this point in terms of injuries not missing many players of any significance.

Case in point Leafs and Bruins are close in the standings at present but Boston has been without Chara and Krejci for a long period of time. If Leafs lost Phaneuf and Bozak for a similar amount of games how would the results look now?

Injuries are apart of the game and do happen to all teams so Leafs depth will actually be tested when injuries hit the Leafs not when they're relatively healthy.

We do have to hope for good health this year or history might repeat itself again.

Agreed. I also don't see this team as 4th best in the conference though. They are a bubble team who should slot somewhere in the 7th to 10th slot.

 

[Mess]

Agreed. I also don't see this team as 4th best in the conference though. They are a bubble team who should slot somewhere in the 7th to 10th slot.

I'm of the same opinion and this is as much about the Leafs competition as it is about the Leafs own play.

Detroit is playing really well and if they play like last night regularly are an easy playoff team. Boston is considered one of the beast of the East and only injuries to Chara and Krejci have them where they are. Montreal is carried by Carey Price regularly and TB is cruising along.

What that all means is even if the Leafs are playing as they presently are we might be looking at 5th spot in the Atlantic Div. The way the playoffs are set up with the top 3 teams in each Div automatics that means Leafs are battling for that last wild card spot. IMO

At present Leafs are still among the weaker possession teams as the advanced stats show. In the bottom 3 in shots allowed and on pace to still give up 3 goals against a game on average due to weaker defensive ability. Injuries have not been a factor in their record and getting wins based on a league high shooting % and with goalies stealing games with unsustainable sv% all factoring into current result. Combine that with leagues most home games (18 of 28) and a lot of things will need to continue to go in our way for us to maintain current pace.

 

[Dustin]

I'm of the same opinion and this is as much about the Leafs competition as it is about the Leafs own play.

Detroit is playing really well and if they play like last night regularly are an easy playoff team. Boston is considered one of the beast of the East and only injuries to Chara and Krejci have them where they are. Montreal is carried by Carey Price regularly and TB is cruising along.

What that all means is even if the Leafs are playing as they presently are we might be looking at 5th spot in the Atlantic Div. The way the playoffs are set up with the top 3 teams in each Div automatics that means Leafs are battling for that last wild card spot. IMO

At present Leafs are still among the weaker possession teams as the advanced stats show. In the bottom 3 in shots allowed and on pace to still give up 3 goals against a game on average due to weaker defensive ability. Injuries have not been a factor in their record and getting wins based on a league high shooting % and with goalies stealing games with unsustainable sv% all factoring into current result. Combine that with leagues most home games (18 of 28) and a lot of things will need to continue to go in our way for us to maintain current pace.

I agree. There is going t be some lean times coming up so we might as well celebrate now.

 

[TootooTrain]

It's nowhere near as bad as last season. We've had some stinkers this season but we've had some great performances as well. Last season, we didn't have many or any good games in terms of puck possession or overall games but pretty much ALL of them were because of godly goaltending.

Pretty much. It's not great, and this team will never be a defensive wall, but it's progress from what we've seen the last couple years. I never expected them to pick up new habits right away. Increased depth aswell means not having to lean on those primary inconsistent abliet elite offensive players. They'll hit some bumps in the road in terms of their old ways, but atleast there's progress. Will be interested to see how they're playing by the end of the year.

 

[Mess]

I agree. There is going t be some lean times coming up so we might as well celebrate now.

If there is a repeat collapse in Leafs future this season it might happen in the 1st half of this season and be coming up in the next month and 1/2.

From Dec 21 - Jan 3rd they play 7 straight road games.. Followed by 2 at home and then 7 of the next 8 back on the road.

The schedule breaks down 12 of 15 on the road beginning Dec 21st.

If the Leafs can come out of that stretch at .500 record then things might be looking good, baring key injuries in the 2nd half for a playoff spot. However winning only 5 of 15 could put playoff hopes in real jeopardy.

 

[Swayze*]

well we're deeper this season and that's really helping but the core and style look similar.

they still have room to improve though and vice versa

if another collapse occurs then we'd better see some major changes

 

[TootooTrain]

Something could happen sooner than we think by losing more games than we win. Thrilling commentary.

 

[Dustin]

If there is a repeat collapse in Leafs future this season it might happen in the 1st half of this season and be coming up in the next month and 1/2.

From Dec 21 - Jan 3rd they play 7 straight road games.. Followed by 2 at home and then 7 of the next 8 back on the road.

The schedule breaks down 12 of 15 on the road beginning Dec 21st.

If the Leafs can come out of that stretch at .500 record then things might be looking good, baring key injuries in the 2nd half for a playoff spot. However winning only 5 of 15 could put playoff hopes in real jeopardy.

Yikes. 7 straight road games will not be good for the Leafs. 3 or 4 wins there would be nice. Plus 2 home wins and 3 or 4 wins on the eoad again would be fine.

So 7 - 9 wins there would keep us in the hunt I believe.

 

[Willy Styles]

wow im starting to realize why fans around the league dont like leafs fans. We win you complain, we loose you complain? We should make a whiners thread and that is where you can spew this bullcrap. Why dont we just enjoy the fact that they are winning and are a much better team than last year and leave it at that. No we just have to keep trying ways to make a team thats 4th in the east seem bad.

Just shut-up and enjoy them winning, when they start loosing look at the advanced stats and then complain, not when their winning. We could have the worst "advanced stats" in the league and if we win i couldnt care less.

Dont complain while their winning.

 

[Dustin]

wow im starting to realize why fans around the league dont like leafs fans. We win you complain, we loose you complain? We should make a whiners thread and that is where you can spew this bullcrap. Why dont we just enjoy the fact that they are winning and are a much better team than last year and leave it at that. No we just have to keep trying ways to make a team thats 4th in the east seem bad.

Just shut-up and enjoy them winning, when they start loosing look at the advanced stats and then complain, not when their winning. We could have the worst "advanced stats" in the league and if we win i couldnt care less.

Dont complain while their winning.

Here, here.

 

[WTFMAN99]

wow im starting to realize why fans around the league dont like leafs fans. We win you complain, we loose you complain? We should make a whiners thread and that is where you can spew this bullcrap. Why dont we just enjoy the fact that they are winning and are a much better team than last year and leave it at that. No we just have to keep trying ways to make a team thats 4th in the east seem bad.

Just shut-up and enjoy them winning, when they start loosing look at the advanced stats and then complain, not when their winning. We could have the worst "advanced stats" in the league and if we win i couldnt care less.

Dont complain while their winning.

It's more about looking and comparing now and last year. We're seeing similar trends, people said the Leafs would come back down to reality at some point last year and it happened. This year we've played a bit better but advanced stats still don't suggest that this is sustainable.

Last night was clearly a tired team on a back to back that stole a game, that's not the whole reason the thread was made. Take the season to date into account.

 

[Willy Styles]

It's more about looking and comparing now and last year. We're seeing similar trends, people said the Leafs would come back down to reality at some point last year and it happened. This year we've played a bit better but advanced stats still don't suggest that this is sustainable.

Last night was clearly a tired team on a back to back that stole a game, that's not the whole reason the thread was made. Take the season to date into account.

Yeah, but we need to take things one game at a time we cant just assume it will be the same as last year. When we start loosing again go ahead analyze the stats and see whats wrong, but whats the point of doing it while were winning.

Last years "collapse" was 10 game stretch. I dont call that a "collapse". They were in the playoffs 90% of the year and got out because of subpar goaltending and bad PK. I dont like the fact that were judging this year based on the last 10 games of last year, which essentially put us out of a playoff spot. Its JUST 10 games, 10 GAMES. If we played half the season badly i would understand where the viewpoint is coming from if we played badly half the season BUT 10 GAMES COMEON.

 

[Super Mega]

The biggest issue is defense the leafs offense is great

Defensively the only one making real strides is Cody Franson and you know its the result of a contract year. Phaneuf has been close to earning his contract but is still that #2 guy, Gardiner looks like one of the worst players on the ice (huge regression), Rielly hasnt taken a real next step (plenty of time with him and I am not worried), Robidas looks too old for anything but bottom pairing, Polak is a bottom pairing guy that adds some physicality but makes risky plays. Holzer has been steady but he is what he is

1) ___
2) Phaneuf
3) ___
4) Franson
5) Rielly
6) Polak, Robidas, Holzer
7) Gardiner

This is roughly the level they are playing too

 

[Purity*]

Yeah, but we need to take things one game at a time we cant just assume it will be the same as last year. When we start loosing again go ahead analyze the stats and see whats wrong, but whats the point of doing it while were winning.

Last years "collapse" was 10 game stretch. I dont call that a "collapse". They were in the playoffs 90% of the year and got out because of subpar goaltending and bad PK. I dont like the fact that were judging this year based on the last 10 games of last year, which essentially put us out of a playoff spot. Its JUST 10 games, 10 GAMES. If we played half the season badly i would understand where the viewpoint is coming from if we played badly half the season BUT 10 GAMES COMEON.

Not accurate at all. We lost 8 straight games and 12 of our last 14 of the season. Prior to that, we were winning games on epic-goaltending and a red-hot first line, any average joe could realize how unsustainable it looked. The team had serious problems, no doubt. None of them got addressed. Our horrid play just happened to catch up with us and we bombed hard. We we're bad the whole season, simple as that, we were lucky to have a playoff spot for as long as we did. We also set an NHL record for shots against (dat Carlyle system) and we're even below Buffalo in most advanced stats.

 

[81Leafs50]

Leafs scoring is much better this season. We are in the top 3 in the NHL, due to better depth. Leafs do not have to rely on the just the top line this season.

Leafs will not repeat last season, but they might also not get to where the Leafs fans want them to be.

This years team is better than last seasons, no doubt.

 

[Willy Styles]

Not accurate at all. We lost 8 straight games and 12 of our last 14 of the season. Prior to that, we were winning games on epic-goaltending and a red-hot first line, any average joe could realize how unsustainable it looked. The team had serious problems, no doubt. None of them got addressed. Our horrid play just happened to catch up with us and we bombed hard. We we're bad the whole season, simple as that, we were lucky to have a playoff spot for as long as we did. We also set an NHL record for shots against (dat Carlyle system) and we're even below Buffalo in most advanced stats.

So our "horrid play" is sutainable for 68 games of the season? Plus the 28 games we played this year. Okay so 68+28 = 96 games / 14 "horrid Games". 14/96 = 14%. Out of the last say 100 games played based on your analysis 14% of them were horrid, and your saying that isnt sustainable. Playing 86% of the last 100 games is actually the definition of stable.

 

[Willy Styles]

Last year our 8th top scoring forward had 12 points. Only 27 games into the season the 8th top scoring forward for the Leafs has 11 points.

That my friends and whiners, is what the difference from last year is. By the end of the year, we will have atleast 12 guys into the 12+ points.

 

[Purity*]

So our "horrid play" is sutainable for 68 games of the season? Plus the 28 games we played this year. Okay so 68+28 = 96 games / 14 "horrid Games". 14/96 = 14%. Out of the last say 100 games played based on your analysis 14% of them were horrid, and your saying that isnt sustainable. Playing 86% of the last 100 games is actually the definition of stable.

Clearly it was. Like I said, super-human goaltending from Bernier and a red-hot first line was how we were winning our games, any slug could have interpreted how unsustainable it was. Don't you remember how we won games last year? Pinned in our own zone for 80% of the game watching Bernier carry us and then Kessel/JVR score off the rush and we somehow win. That's what last season was all about. Bernier gets injured and no more super-human goaltending and it's no surprise why we bombed so hard.

"Out of the last say 100 games played based on your analysis 14% of them were horrid, and your saying that isnt sustainable"

No, that's actually not what I meant at all.

The Leafs didn't belong in the playoffs last year, simple as that.