Prospect Info: Leafs Board Prospect Ranking #6

[DD03]

I don't think that's a super fair question. Biggs started his first OHL season at 19; most OHL prospects start a few years earlier than that. If you want to talk OHL PWFs in their draft +2 years:

Steve Ott scored 43-45-88 in in 53 games (1.66PPG).

Wayne Simmonds scored 33-42-75 in 60 games (1.25PPG).

Mike Richards scored 22-36-58 in 43 games (1.35PPG).

Zack Kassian scored 26-51-77 in 56 games (1.38).

Corey Perry scored 47-83-130 in 60 games (2.17PPG).


Other prospects:

Austin Watson scored 25-43-68 in in 61 games (1.14PPG).

Jared Knight scored 26-26-52 in 52 games (1.00PPG).

John Mcfarland scored 24-26-50 in 49 games (1.02PPG).

Christian Thomas scored 34-33-67 in 55 games (1.23PPG).

Tyler Toffoli scored 52-48-100 in 65 games (1.54PPG).

Nick Cousins scored 27-76-103 in 64 games (1.61PPG).

Brett Ritchie scored 41-35-76 in 53 games (1.43PPG).

And that's all I really care to do. Again, it was Tyler's first OHL season, but the amount of guys who can hit at least a PPG in their 19/20 year is pretty huge; for example, I'd never even heard of John Mcfarland or Christian Thomas before, and they did it.

I understand you have to be patient with guys like Biggs, and I'm nowhere near calling him a bust, but his lack of offensive production coupled with his average defensive play leaves me underwhelmed, and I don't think he's Toronto's 5th best prospect.

All those other prospects are nice, but I really don't think any of them are anywhere close to as physical as Biggs. McFarland played top line minutes in Sudbury and went in the 2nd round. Christian Thomas is son of Steve Thomas and played top line minutes in the exact same place. (Both players being UNDER 6 feet tall. Hardly power forwards with Biggs side and physicality.)

You realize these offensive stats prove nothing? Half of these guys will be lucky to turn out to be checkers in the NHL like Ott and Kassian. Richards is a different species all together and so is Corey Perry. Wayne Simmonds is the closest comparable and if he produces a little less offense then Simmonds, I for one, would not complain.

Really helps if you know your prospects before you start comparing them based off offensive numbers. The only one close to a PWF that you listed as a prospect is Austin Watson and Ritchie.

 

[7even]

All those other prospects are nice, but I really don't think any of them are anywhere close to as physical as Biggs. McFarland played top line minutes in Sudbury and went in the 2nd round. Christian Thomas is son of Steve Thomas and played top line minutes in the exact same place.

You realize these offensive stats prove nothing? Half of these guys will be lucky to turn out to be checkers in the NHL like Ott and Kassian. Richards is a different species all together and so is Corey Perry. Wayne Simmonds is the closest comparable and if he produces a little less offense then Simmonds, I for one, would not complain.

Really helps if you know your prospects before you start comparing them based off offensive numbers. The only one close to a PWF that you listed as a prospect is Austin Watson and Ritchie.

Really all I did was throw up big guys from the OHL who had played in the OHL 2 years after being drafted. Actually took a quite a bit of mindless digging. Anyways, the whole point of the exercise wasn't to "prove" anything other than hitting a PPG pace 2 years after your draft class is a pretty mundane thing. It wasn't supposed to be a "prospect comparables" list, just because that would've been too much work. I included Richards, Perry, and Ott because they're notable PWFs who played OHL, and that's what you asked for.

Watson and Ritchie were the only two guys who stood out to me as similar players. The rest I just literally walked through the 2010 and 2011 drafts. Almost every player I looked up who had a +2 year had hit PPG, and just about every player who only had a +1 season had as well. The point I was trying to illustrate is that scoring at a PPG pace as a 19/20 year old is a pretty common thing, and therefore I find it a little discouraging that Biggs couldn't pull it off. Full stop.

 

[GameOverLeafsWin]

Boone Jenner is no superstar. In my observations of watching him i see him as a shut down number 3 Center. So I don't really understand why people are looking for huge numbers from 2 guys whos ceilings are 3 line maybe second line players at best.

 

[DD03]

Really all I did was throw up big guys from the OHL who had played in the OHL 2 years after being drafted. Actually took a quite a bit of mindless digging. Anyways, the whole point of the exercise wasn't to "prove" anything other than hitting a PPG pace 2 years after your draft class is a pretty mundane thing. It wasn't supposed to be a "prospect comparables" list, just because that would've been too much work. I included Richards, Perry, and Ott because they're notable PWFs who played OHL, and that's what you asked for.

Watson and Ritchie were the only two guys who stood out to me as similar players. The rest I just literally walked through the 2010 and 2011 drafts. Almost every player I looked up who had a +2 year had hit PPG, and just about every player who only had a +1 season had as well. The point I was trying to illustrate is that scoring at a PPG pace as a 19/20 year old is a pretty common thing, and therefore I find it a little discouraging that Biggs couldn't pull it off. Full stop.

So instead of actually working on his game you want him to cherry pick? His offensive game is still existent which is the most important thing, IMO. The fact he can play on the top line and still not look out of place is enough credit to his skating and mobility, which will be the most important parts of his game going forward.

As long as he is capable of playing with talented players is something we need. I think he will be able to turn heads coming into camp this season. He's an absolute truck.

 

[AuraSphere]

Granberg, I don't see what's going on here, percy and biggs are so overrated just cause they're 1st round picks lol

 

[7even]

So instead of actually working on his game you want him to cherry pick?

I'm sorry but I have no idea where you got this from.

His offensive game is still existent which is the most important thing, IMO. The fact he can play on the top line and still not look out of place is enough credit to his skating and mobility, which will be the most important parts of his game going forward.

I don't think it's enough, but I will agree that his skating is strong enough that I think it will be a major asset in the NHL, and hopefully something that sets him apart. I just wish he could use that more to his advantage offensively.

As long as he is capable of playing with talented players is something we need. I think he will be able to turn heads coming into camp this season. He's an absolute truck.

Yeah the guy's a freight train. He has all the physical tools and it's unfortunate the offense isn't coming with it. Oh well.

 

[DD03]

I'm sorry but I have no idea where you got this from.



I don't think it's enough, but I will agree that his skating is strong enough that I think it will be a major asset in the NHL, and hopefully something that sets him apart. I just wish he could use that more to his advantage offensively.



Yeah the guy's a freight train. He has all the physical tools and it's unfortunate the offense isn't coming with it. Oh well.

McFarland was terrible for it and it's a known way for people to overproduce in the OHL. Biggs doesn't cheat offensively while in the zone. He pops his guy and makes sure he gets it out. Safe plays are better then the dangerous ones. I just hope the Leafs keep a close eye on him. If he develops properly, instant fan favourite.

 

[smitty10]

Granberg.

He's only 21 and has won U20 gold, WC gold and an SEL title.

The kid's a winner.

 

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

Leivo/Percy/Granberg in no particular order

 

[ohlscouttpt]

It's really not -- I acknowledged that in my post, and really, I want Biggs to do nothing but succeed.

Personally, by the time you're 19/20, I'd think moving to a weaker league where you're physically a lot more mature and experienced than the majority of your competition would only inflate your numbers. It was Gauthier's first season in a new league as well, and he outperformed Biggs as a 17 year old. I think the "it was his first year in a weaker league" is a bit of an excuse, in all honesty.

you are not comparing the ohl to the qmhl are two total different leagues and play styles. Tyler Biggs was not expected to go out there and be a ppg player he was asked to create space , go hard to the net throw his weight around and net a few goals here and there. Biggs didn't play with the same talent as Ritchie did I can go on and on with more. If your going by points your going to be sorely disappointed with a lot of prospects coming out of the chl. Biggs has great size decent hand and good sakting and coming from a team that play along the lines of the leafs style he will be a great fit for the leafs

 

[7even]

you are not comparing the ohl to the qmhl are two total different leagues and play styles. Tyler Biggs was not expected to go out there and be a ppg player he was asked to create space , go hard to the net throw his weight around and net a few goals here and there. Biggs didn't play with the same talent as Ritchie did I can go on and on with more. If your going by points your going to be sorely disappointed with a lot of prospects coming out of the chl. Biggs has great size decent hand and good sakting and coming from a team that play along the lines of the leafs style he will be a great fit for the leafs

I'm not sure how, seeing as most top prospects from the CHL tear it apart, but okay.

 

[67Cup]

If a prospect is really playing well, you don't have to make excuses for him. I'm hearing a lot of excuses for Biggs.

There are many good reasons to think Biggs will be a useful contributor as a third or fourth line grinder and that is OK. It is not being a bust. But his regular season production was disappointing and his playoff production downright bad. Maybe he will turn it around over the next couple of seasons but there is little evidence of that happening right now.

 

[ChrisCall]

I'm not sure how, seeing as most top prospects from the CHL tear it apart, but okay.

While i agree that the 'best of the best' NHL forwards often put up big junior numbers, i also think that the fall-off in production between Junior-AHL-NHL numbers varies greatly.

What i gather from those in the pro-biggs camp here, and from my own internet/tv viewings of the player, is that he has the qualities of a player whose numbers should not decrease significantly in transition.

I see him listed as 6'3 / 224lbs. He also knows how to use his size, so it's a fair bet he is already strong enough to muscle his way onto the puck in the NHL. Now, i love 4th line checkers like Mclaren (Junior best 33 points), Orr (Junior best 9 points), or Brown (U. Michigan 13 points), but it seems like common sense to say that Biggs is simply a much better hockey player than these guys (or similar 4th line tough guys).

But you can't compare him to a small, skilled forward who kinda sort of makes it into the league on the 4th maybe 3rd line because his scoring doesn't translate. He's got the kick your ass of Colton Orr that Jerry d'amigo could never have, but far more talent than Orr. ... and frankly, if Joe Colborne used his body as well as Biggs does, he'd be a solid #2C by now.

So what will Biggs really become? Too early to tell i'd say, but size and net-drive with some quality skill goes a long way. I really believe that bare-minimum is 3rd line-winger putting up 25-40 points a year. It's like when put in the right situation and give him 12-15 minutes a night he'll get that much just out of garbage production alone during an 82 game season. The kind of garbage points that the Orrs of the world are not quite skilled enough to find.

But that's if he's already about capped out his offensive potential. He's only 20. Just turned 20. So i dunno, maybe #5 is a bit high, but statistically speaking, only a couple teams maybe (scratch the Oilers 1st overall picks) should be talking about top line potential after the first 2 or 3 prospects. Biggs has #2 potential still. I voted for him but honestly, i don't know if Leivo or Percy will be better. Maybe Abbott or d'amigo or Ross becomes that second liner. It's good depth. In any case, top 10 for sure, so a couple spots is of little difference at this point. The leafs have a whole bunch of prospects very close together in overall value.

 

[7even]

While i agree that the 'best of the best' NHL forwards often put up big junior numbers, i also think that the fall-off in production between Junior-AHL-NHL numbers varies greatly.

What i gather from those in the pro-biggs camp here, and from my own internet/tv viewings of the player, is that he has the qualities of a player whose numbers should not decrease significantly in transition.

I see him listed as 6'3 / 224lbs. He also knows how to use his size, so it's a fair bet he is already strong enough to muscle his way onto the puck in the NHL. Now, i love 4th line checkers like Mclaren (Junior best 33 points), Orr (Junior best 9 points), or Brown (U. Michigan 13 points), but it seems like common sense to say that Biggs is simply a much better hockey player than these guys (or similar 4th line tough guys).

But you can't compare him to a small, skilled forward who kinda sort of makes it into the league on the 4th maybe 3rd line because his scoring doesn't translate. He's got the kick your ass of Colton Orr that Jerry d'amigo could never have, but far more talent than Orr. ... and frankly, if Joe Colborne used his body as well as Biggs does, he'd be a solid #2C by now.

So what will Biggs really become? Too early to tell i'd say, but size and net-drive with some quality skill goes a long way. I really believe that bare-minimum is 3rd line-winger putting up 25-40 points a year. It's like when put in the right situation and give him 12-15 minutes a night he'll get that much just out of garbage production alone during an 82 game season. The kind of garbage points that the Orrs of the world are not quite skilled enough to find.

But that's if he's already about capped out his offensive potential. He's only 20. Just turned 20. So i dunno, maybe #5 is a bit high, but statistically speaking, only a couple teams maybe (scratch the Oilers 1st overall picks) should be talking about top line potential after the first 2 or 3 prospects. Biggs has #2 potential still. I voted for him but honestly, i don't know if Leivo or Percy will be better. Maybe Abbott or d'amigo or Ross becomes that second liner. It's good depth. In any case, top 10 for sure, so a couple spots is of little difference at this point. The leafs have a whole bunch of prospects very close together in overall value.

Great post, agreed just about 100%. Biggs has a game that translates very well to the NHL. I just wish that included some offense too

Haha, I sound like a broken record. It's just unfortunate because Biggs has all the physical tools to be a force in the NHL. 6'3 224? As a 20 year old? Jesus, the guy is built like a wrecking ball. He's got ideal power forward size. Here's to hoping he can find the "forward" to go with the "power"

 

[MakeTheIronSing]

Percy.

I wish voting was like this all the time. Everyone votes and then is complied to tell the world who they just anonymously voted for. Like a citizen run police state, brilliant.

 

[Sergei Berezin]

Great post, agreed just about 100%. Biggs has a game that translates very well to the NHL. I just wish that included some offense too

Haha, I sound like a broken record. It's just unfortunate because Biggs has all the physical tools to be a force in the NHL. 6'3 224? As a 20 year old? Jesus, the guy is built like a wrecking ball. He's got ideal power forward size. Here's to hoping he can find the "forward" to go with the "power"

Didn't mean to get everyone started on you earlier, but I was generally curious as to why Biggs disappointed you haha

But you have legitimate reason for concern, and cup67 brought up a good point that good prospects don't need excuses, as well.

However, Biggs is someone who really excites me. Aside from his WJC performance (limited role on big ice = no good for Tyler), he's impressed me at every viewing. I think something to remember with him is that he's been with 6 different teams/organizations since 2008. That's insane. Literally zero time for adjustment. Also, last season was the first time he had played more than 37 games in any season since 2008. He played 60 + 11 playoff games + WJC. That's pretty rough, if you ask me.

I also expected better from him stats wise, but he has passed almost every eye-test for me to believe he'll at least be a 2nd line PWF in the NHL one day.

Time will tell, I suppose. I'm not expecting a lot this season in the AHL, either. But the season after is when I think he'll break out.

 

[sommervr]

Um, in what world is Tyler Biggs a better player than Josh Leivo?

Can any fellow OHL followers chime in here.

He is not.

Biggs is behind Leivo, Ashton, and Broll in the Marlies depth charts. He looks like Colton Orr with a better shot. He has Orr's skating and tunnel vision but he is not nearly as good a fighter.

Biggs looked three steps behind in his Marlies games just like Orr does with the leafs.

Leivo looks like he could be an impact 3rd liner for the leafs. Broll is a similar player to Biggs but skates better and is a legit fighter.

 

[ohlscouttpt]

If a prospect is really playing well, you don't have to make excuses for him. I'm hearing a lot of excuses for Biggs.

I wasn't making excuses for Tyler at all I was pointing out the fact that a lot of people say Biggs wont be anything but a fourth liner cause he cant put up a ppg like come on. yea this maybe my second post but I find coming to this site for over a year never had the urge to make an account but after seeing so many people bash him is just sicking. Every time Biggs played against my team he was a man among boys he maybe have not scored more then 3 or 4 goals against us but he made almost all our player look over there shoulder to make sure he wasn't coming. I think people on here try to make excuses for him to be a bust.

 

[Duffman955]

Leivo/Percy/Granberg in no particular order

Thats how i see it.

 

[ULF_55]

It's really not -- I acknowledged that in my post, and really, I want Biggs to do nothing but succeed.

Personally, by the time you're 19/20, I'd think moving to a weaker league where you're physically a lot more mature and experienced than the majority of your competition would only inflate your numbers. It was Gauthier's first season in a new league as well, and he outperformed Biggs as a 17 year old. I think the "it was his first year in a weaker league" is a bit of an excuse, in all honesty.

Seems more like a wish list than an evaluation, but that is expected.

We want the draft picks to be good so we wish someone is going to live up to it.

World Champions in the men's leagues taking back seat to juniors who can't even make an okay AHL squad.

 

[QMJHLfollower]

Carter Ashton, then Stuart Percy, Petter Granberg, Josh Leivo.

 

[StuckOutHere]

When I see Granberg I see a player like Barret Jackman. I like that. Tough SOB, but not necessarily violent, who will make few mistakes.

 

[highslot]

tyler biggs shouldn't be 5th, especially just because he was the 1st. frattin was definitely better than him and was in the later rounds.

percy, leivo, d'amigo, blacker have way more polish and demonstrated more than him. garret sparks, doninato, mcgregg, johnsson and herzog, brown have more potential skill than him.

Rankings:
1. Morgan Rielly - 92.86%
2. Frederik Gauthier - 32.39%
3. Matt Finn - 43.32%
4. Joe Colborne - 65.44%
5. Tyler Biggs - 31.91%
6.

__

 

[DD03]

Seems like people have a hard time understanding that offensive production for a prospect isn't EVERYTHING.

 

[Sergei Berezin]

tyler biggs shouldn't be 5th, especially just because he was the 1st. frattin was definitely better than him and was in the later rounds.

percy, leivo, d'amigo, blacker have way more polish and demonstrated more than him. garret sparks, doninato, mcgregg, johnsson and herzog, brown have more potential skill than him.

Rankings:
1. Morgan Rielly - 92.86%
2. Frederik Gauthier - 32.39%
3. Matt Finn - 43.32%
4. Joe Colborne - 65.44%
5. Tyler Biggs - 31.91%
6.

__

haha what? Frattin was 23 when he was tearing up the NCAA... Biggs was 18 in only season in the NCAA.

He's 20 years old now, and about to play for the Marlies.

At 20, Frattin scored 15 points in 43 games in the NCAA.

Biggs scored 17 in 37 in the NCAA when he was 18.


Give your head a shake people.