LD Quinton Hughes - U of Michigan, NCAA (2018, 7th, VAN) Part II

[UNITEDSTATESOFHOCKEY]

What a story it would be if Jack Hughes also gets drafted by Vancouver.

They'd eclipse the Sedins.

How do you know that considering one is 19 and the other is 17?

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

How do you know that considering one is 19 and the other is 17?

I think on a balance of probabilities, there's a chance that the Hughes brothers could have more prosperous careers than the Sedins, but it's impossible to compare given that they play different positions and the Hughes brothers won't be making an impact in the NHL for a number of years.

If Jack has as good of a career as Henrik, and Quinn becomes a 50-60 point dman that drives the offensive breakout of the team, then they have a good case for being the best brother duo of the Canucks.

 

[Agent Zub]

How do you know that considering one is 19 and the other is 17?

Because they are insane hockey players.

 

[DownGoesMcDavid]

According to Dylan Larkin through a recent interview, Quin Hughes will win multiple Norris Trophies by the end of his career

 

[lawrence]

What a story it would be if Jack Hughes also gets drafted by Vancouver.

They'd eclipse the Sedins.

exactly 20 years ago from the 2019 draft which is held in Vancouver the Canucks pulled off an unthinkable in getting both Sedins.

We are expected to suck again and have a higher pick. I am hoping lighting strikes twice, we will have a new set of brothers with the Nucks.

 

[JTmillerForA1stLOL]

I think on a balance of probabilities, there's a chance that the Hughes brothers could have more prosperous careers than the Sedins, but it's impossible to compare given that they play different positions and the Hughes brothers won't be making an impact in the NHL for a number of years.

If Jack has as good of a career as Henrik, and Quinn becomes a 50-60 point dman that drives the offensive breakout of the team, then they have a good case for being the best brother duo of the Canucks.

The balance of probabilities tells you that two 17 and 18 year old kids are going to eclipse the careers of 2 all star future hall of famers that have been the face of this franchise for the last decade?

Ok.

 

[93LEAFS]

The balance of probabilities tells you that two 17 and 18 year old kids are going to eclipse the careers of 2 all star future hall of famers that have been the face of this franchise for the last decade?

Ok.

Yeah, when you combine the odds of 2 players reaching Hall of Fame status it makes the odds quite small. Then they'd also have to stay with the Canucks throughout there career or atleast til they are washed up.

I mean, you look at 1st overall picks. How many of them actually become Hall of Famers? Looking at the draft since 1998 until now, here is the list.

1993: Daigle (no chance)
1994: Ed Jovanovski (no chance)
1995: Berard (No chance)
1996: Chris Phillips (no chance)
1997: Thornton (yes)
1998: Levavalier (maybe but unlikely)
1999: Stefan (no chance)
2000: Dipietro (no chance)
2001: Kovalchuk (maybe, but unlikely)
2002: Nash (unlikely)
2003: Fleury (maybe)
2004: Ovechkin (Yes)
2005: Crosby (Yes)
2006: Erik Johnson (highly unlikely)
2007: Kane (yes)
2008: Stamkos (likely)
2009: Tavares (likely)
2010: Hall (I would have said unlkely entering the year, but could Hart Winners generally get in, let's call him a coin flip)
2011: RNH (highly unlikely)
2012: Yakupov (no chance)
2013: MacKinnon (too early, but trending well)
2014: Ekblad (too early, but not trending that well)
2015: McDavid (early, but highly likely)
2016: Matthews (way too early but trending well)
2017: Hishier (way too early)

So, over 25 years, this is how the best prospects have fared. There are 4 clear locks (16% of the sample), 3 other guys I'd say are on there way with more longevity (12%), 2 coin-flips (8%), 2 young guys trending well but far off (8%), and 2 maybe but unlikely (8%). Since I'm uncomfortable making any judgments on Hischier based on one year, I'll remove him and add in the 1992 first overall pick Roman Hamrlik, who is a no). So, let's just say the coin breaks the right way for every one of the fringe and young guys. That is 52% chance the best prospect in the draft (I know 1OA isn't perfect, but it is a decent proxy) will make it, realistically, we are probably talking closer to 36% to 40%. Lets just assume that both Hughes is the equivalent of a 1OA pick. The odds at best using recent history is 27% chance, using my conservative guess, its closer to 13%. Considering Quinn wasn't even held in that high regard by the scouting community and the fact, the Sedin's pulled off two hall of fame careers while playing entirely for the Canucks, you would have to assume the odds are somewhat closer to 5% at best.

Now this all gets down to, do you consider 5% a reasonable chance looking at the balance of probabilities.

 

[GetFocht]

I would recommend as a hockey fan, to watch this. I don't think I've seen a defencemen highlight reel like this before, he plays with such conviction.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

The balance of probabilities tells you that two 17 and 18 year old kids are going to eclipse the careers of 2 all star future hall of famers that have been the face of this franchise for the last decade?

Ok.

I said "there's a chance"...because there is a chance they do. While the Sedins had fantastic careers, they were late bloomers in that it wasn't until their 5th full season where they started to really produce like top 6 players, they retired at 37 (some players play until 40 or so, giving them more time to add to career points), they never won a Cup, and they were predominantly 75-80 point players (not a slight, just that other players can surpass that benchmark). For those reasons, along with the potential of the Hughes brothers, it's not outrageous to think they have a chance of having better careers than the Sedins. Not saying it's likely.

 

[Icebreakers]

I said "there's a chance"...because there is a chance they do. While the Sedins had fantastic careers, they were late bloomers in that it wasn't until their 5th full season where they started to really produce like top 6 players, they retired at 37 (some players play until 40 or so, giving them more time to add to career points), they never won a Cup, and they were predominantly 75-80 point players (not a slight, just that other players can surpass that benchmark). For those reasons, along with the potential of the Hughes brothers, it's not outrageous to think they have a chance of having better careers than the Sedins. Not saying it's likely.

Sedins also played their entire careers with the Canucks though. And their prime was as good as anyone's. (Almost 10 years of ppg). Hughes bros may not be in van post 30 years old.

Only way that Hughes bros can pass Sedins if they bring a cup to Vancouver.

 

[lawrence]

Sedins also played their entire careers with the Canucks though. And their prime was as good as anyone's. (Almost 10 years of ppg). Hughes bros may not be in van post 30 years old.

Only way that Hughes bros can pass Sedins if they bring a cup to Vancouver.

The only way the Hughes Bros can pass the Sedins Bros as brothers is if Jack Plays for Vancouver, which is a looooong shot for now.

 

[GetFocht]

yeah, Jack Hughes with the Canucks is only if the universe is perfectly aligned. I wouldn't get my hopes up on that one.

 

[Cancuks]

We better get Jack Hughes or I think Quinn Hughes leaves as a UFA first chance he gets to play with his brother.

 

[Grub]

We better get Jack Hughes or I think Quinn Hughes leaves as a UFA first chance he gets to play with his brother.

Can it never be the other way around?

Wait nope, judging our luck we land Jack Hughes in the 2019 draft and they both decide to leave as a UFA first chance they get.

 

[L13]

We better get Jack Hughes or I think Quinn Hughes leaves as a UFA first chance he gets to play with his brother.

I'm not a Canucks fan and I can tell you this is nonsense.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Absolutely not surprised Hughes has hinted at being an impact player this soon. He is a terrific talent and one of the biggest impact players this past draft. Never wavered on this opinion going back to a year ago.

 

[Gaunce4gm]

I would recommend as a hockey fan, to watch this. I don't think I've seen a defencemen highlight reel like this before, he plays with such conviction.

My major takeaways, he doesn't look that small, he isn't afraid to get physical, forecheckers have no chance against him, his acceleration is McDavid like. (Obviously McDavid has higher top speeds)

 

[Mathew Barzal]

We better get Jack Hughes or I think Quinn Hughes leaves as a UFA first chance he gets to play with his brother.

I have that nagging feeling in the back of my mind too, hopefully our group of kids coming up gives him enough reason to stay.

 

[Disappointed EP40]

1 year. He didn't coach him as an U-17 (he replaced Tony Granato). Okay, Brian Burke was an NHL executive last year, and has won a cup, should I blindly accept what he says?

Your argument is that we should automatically defer to authority. Which is a bit ridiculous, because if I asked a bunch of the NHL scouting community if Quinn Hughes was generational, it would probably get an overwhelming no.

Because the word has been altered from what it historically meant. That's why I'll tell someone they are wrong. It has never been used in this context until post-McDavid, and it is getting ridiculous.

Just because you have heard of the appeal to authority bias doesn' t mean you understand it.

He's saying the coach is an expert because he's watch Quinn Hughes play in a ton of games. Not because of his position FFS.

 

[Disappointed EP40]

What a story it would be if Jack Hughes also gets drafted by Vancouver.

They'd eclipse the Sedins.

What a silly statement with zero thought in reality whatsoever.

Not sure what you mean by "eclipse". Most mainstream fans wouldn't even know the Hughes name until the 2nd seasons they both played, and suggesting they would "eclipse" them statistically is just absurd.

 

[93LEAFS]

Just because you have heard of the appeal to authority bias doesn' t mean you understand it.

He's saying the coach is an expert because he's watch Quinn Hughes play in a ton of games. Not because of his position FFS.

That is still an appeal to an authority. Because the guys position is being a former coach of Quinn Hughes, saying that he is right because he was his coach.

Edit: Actually the arugment was, that he had a reasonable understanding of the usage of generational because he coached (the player in this case doesn't matter), and was referring to it by referencing uniqueness. That has nothing to do with actually coaching and is absolutely an appeal to authority.

 

[UNITEDSTATESOFHOCKEY]

1 year. He didn't coach him as an U-17 (he replaced Tony Granato). Okay, Brian Burke was an NHL executive last year, and has won a cup, should I blindly accept what he says?

Don Granato, not Tony but we get your point.... The fact remains there are a ton of people both in the hockey world, on TV and on blogs that think they know but don't, but they put up a good front and people believe their information for a number of different reasons... just the way of the times1

 

[Agent Zub]

What a silly statement with zero thought in reality whatsoever.

Not sure what you mean by "eclipse". Most mainstream fans wouldn't even know the Hughes name until the 2nd seasons they both played, and suggesting they would "eclipse" them statistically is just absurd.

Where did I say they would do it in their first season?

 

[UNITEDSTATESOFHOCKEY]

We better get Jack Hughes or I think Quinn Hughes leaves as a UFA first chance he gets to play with his brother.

First off who is "we" in this conversation?!?!

Secondly, If they wanted to play together so badly they would have found a way to get Jack into michigan this year... I haven't heard any evidence that they would hatch some scheme to play together 8 years down the road. What if one of them is on a perennial cup contending team with no cap space to bring in the other?!?

Third, there is another brother coming and while this is way way down the road, its trending like that all 3 would be 2-3 years apart on hitting free agency so it would take one of them signing a bridge deal or something weird down the road for those stars to align...

 

[Icebreakers]

First off who is "we" in this conversation?!?!

Secondly, If they wanted to play together so badly they would have found a way to get Jack into michigan this year... I haven't heard any evidence that they would hatch some scheme to play together 8 years down the road. What if one of them is on a perennial cup contending team with no cap space to bring in the other?!?

Third, there is another brother coming and while this is way way down the road, its trending like that all 3 would be 2-3 years apart on hitting free agency so it would take one of them signing a bridge deal or something weird down the road for those stars to align...

Jack is a 2001 birthday which means his real highschool graduation year is 2019. He cant play in NCAA unless if he accelerated his schooling (takes a lot of effort, basically doing entire grade 12 year online in a few months). Quinn didn't know if he was going to be in the NHL or not. It was extremely difficult to guarantee both players would play together without sacrificing something.