LD Luke Hughes (2021, 4th, NJD)

[Hisch13r]

Second best.

I’d still give it to the guy with the long track record at this point but it’s been pretty damn close this year

 

[Gliff]

Luke is 25th in defenseman scoring. He's the youngest in the top 30 by at least a couple of years and is averaging 20 minutes a game vs. 25 minutes a game for the rest of the top 25. Very impressive rookie season-- he'd easily be the Calder favorite in almost any other season. He should still be heavily considered if he keeps trending upwards.

This hold true for a lot of guys. This years calder class is insane. Like 10 guys that would probably finish top 3 in most years.

I wanted Hughes at 3 and was pissed they took McTavish. Pretty happy with how it turned out but Hughes is going to be just as good as I expected.

 

[Guadana]

I’d still give it to the guy with the long track record at this point but it’s been pretty damn close this year

I already mentioned in Nemec thread, but its not that hard for me.

With 1 min in PKper game and the most TOI 5 on 5 Nemec is playing more defensive role against tough opponents, Nemec is NUMBER ONE devils defenseman now with the best SA, xGA, xGF%, HDCA.

Overall in the league from 200+ min 5 on 5 Nemec is #11 defenseman in SA, #30 in xGA, NUMBER NINE in xGF%.

Nemec is the best Devils defenseman now, Luke is the best offensive defenseman and I would say second best team defenseman. Im happy to have both. Luke have an edge in offensive zone, Simon in the neauteral zone and in defensive zone. Luke may be the best defenseman in the league against one on one rushes.

Its not about one against one, its about both against opposition. Both are doing great for their roles, age and minutes.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Second best.

Nemec has been great, but he's also consistently had the better D partner until recently. Since getting paired with Marino, the two have a 62.4% xGF%

 

[Guadana]

Nemec has been great, but he's also consistently had the better D partner until recently. Since getting paired with Marino, the two have a 62.4% xGF%

Siegenthaler of this season? Very questionable. Nemec is playing against tougher competition, playing more ice time(1st 5 on 5), and like I said he is #9 in xGF% overall in the league. Higher you will find all the stats. For now its not a debate. Luke is better offensively.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Siegenthaler of this season? Very questionable. Nemec is playing against tougher competition, playing more ice time(1st 5 on 5), and like I said he is #9 in xGF% overall in the league. Higher you will find all the stats. For now its not a debate. Luke is better offensively.

Siegenthaler is better than Smith and Miller, yes. I can't believe that even needs to be said.

Since Dec 23, when Hughes was moved up to play with Marino, his xGA/60 is better than Nemec's, as is his xG%.

 

[Guadana]

Siegenthaler is better than Smith and Miller, yes. I can't believe that even needs to be said.

Since Dec 23, when Hughes was moved up to play with Marino, his xGA/60 is better than Nemec's, as is his xG%.

Luke is playing less with better partner - Marino is much better than Siegs. Nemec is a player who cover. And Nemec still is playing more defensive role and playing more ice time. Its not that hard to understand. And its not that hard to watch the games and see who have more problem against the cycling.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Luke is playing less with better partner - Marino is much better than Siegs. Nemec is a player who cover. And Nemec still is playing more defensive role and playing more ice time. Its not that hard to understand. And its not that hard to watch the games and see who have more problem against the cycling.

I don't see Hughes having any problem with the cycle. Nemec is playing like 40 more seconds per game right now.

 

[Guadana]

I don't see Hughes having any problem with the cycle. Nemec is playing like 40 more seconds per game right now.

Nemec is better. And its not because xGF% only, we are talking about overall season, GA, SA, HDCA, ice time, competition.

And Nemec is playing ~3 min more 5 on 5. Im happy for Luke and his PP game especially.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

View attachment 796565
Nemec is better. And its not because xGF% only, we are talking about overall season, GA, SA, HDCA, ice time, competition.

And Nemec is playing ~3 min more 5 on 5. Im happy for Luke and his PP game especially.

That's because Hughes is playing PP1 time, so you'd expect Nemec to get more 5v5 ice time.

Using GA in a 5 game sample isn't really a great measure, because its so dependent on goaltender performance. xG is preferable. And if you're going to use a shot metric, you should probably use corsi or fenway.

Let's see how Hughes and Marino do as a pair under a larger sample size. But the early numbers are very promising. Luke has a 63.5% xG% share since Dec 23rd, which is pretty dominant.

 

[Guadana]

That's because Hughes is playing PP1 time, so you'd expect Nemec to get more 5v5 ice time.

Using GA in a 5 game sample isn't really a great measure, because its so dependent on goaltender performance. xG is preferable. And if you're going to use a shot metric, you should probably use corsi or fenway.

Let's see how Hughes and Marino do as a pair under a larger sample size. But the early numbers are very promising. Luke has a 63.5% xG% share since Dec 23rd, which is pretty dominant.

I already mentioned in Nemec thread, but its not that hard for me.

View attachment 796487
View attachment 796488
View attachment 796489
View attachment 796490


With 1 min in PKper game and the most TOI 5 on 5 Nemec is playing more defensive role against tough opponents, Nemec is NUMBER ONE devils defenseman now with the best SA, xGA, xGF%, HDCA.

View attachment 796492

Overall in the league from 200+ min 5 on 5 Nemec is #11 defenseman in SA, #30 in xGA, NUMBER NINE in xGF%.

Nemec is the best Devils defenseman now, Luke is the best offensive defenseman and I would say second best team defenseman. Im happy to have both. Luke have an edge in offensive zone, Simon in the neauteral zone and in defensive zone. Luke may be the best defenseman in the league against one on one rushes.

Its not about one against one, its about both against opposition. Both are doing great for their roles, age and minutes.

This is my post with stats from the whole season.


And this is from 23.12.2023.

Overall Im happy with both. And it was not that hard to understand that Luke is more offensive oriented more rover defenseman even before the first nhl game, and that Nemec is better two way defenseman with potential to be better passer. Again before the first NHL game. And they are playing for their roles - Luke is more dynamic offensive\transition oriented defenseman, Nemec is better more defensive oriented minutes eater who can join the rush or find open player by a protecting pass from driving the zone. Some fans ranked offensive and defensive impact differently. For example even if Luke will have better stats with Marino - he isnt protecting player in that pair nad he will have better partner in that pair. Siegenthaler started to play more two way type game with Nemec because Nemec is playing more protection role, again - against harder competition. Before now its clear that in overall game Nemec is ahead of Luke - because all of ice time, different metrics, role etc. Luke should and I believe he can play with Marino in a bigger role, so their results should be more closer - and its more about context, how do you see it and how you are ranking different impact.

Really I like both. Im just more defensive guy overall.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

This is my post with stats from the whole season.


And this is from 23.12.2023.
View attachment 796603

Overall Im happy with both. And it was not that hard to understand that Luke is more offensive oriented more rover defenseman even before the first nhl game, and that Nemec is better two way defenseman with potential to be better passer. Again before the first NHL game. And they are playing for their roles - Luke is more dynamic offensive\transition oriented defenseman, Nemec is better more defensive oriented minutes eater who can join the rush or find open player by a protecting pass from driving the zone. Some fans ranked offensive and defensive impact differently. For example even if Luke will have better stats with Marino - he isnt protecting player in that pair nad he will have better partner in that pair. Siegenthaler started to play more two way type game with Nemec because Nemec is playing more protection role, again - against harder competition. Before now its clear that in overall game Nemec is ahead of Luke - because all of ice time, different metrics, role etc. Luke should and I believe he can play with Marino in a bigger role, so their results should be more closer - and its more about context, how do you see it and how you are ranking different impact.

Really I like both. Im just more defensive guy overall.

Look at Luke's stats with and without Smith, and this narrative falls apart. He's a 65.8% xG% player without Smith, and 41.4% with him. Keep in mind, that Smith has been his most common defensive partner.

 

[Guadana]

Look at Luke's stats with and without Smith, and this narrative falls apart. He's a 65.8% xG% player without Smith, and 41.4% with him. Keep in mind, that Smith has been his most common defensive partner.

Yes, but...

Luke Played big part with Smith, but he played close to the same with Miller. And again - with Miller or Smith against weaker competition than Nemec.

And...

Nemec with Smith were better than Luke with Smith
Nemec with Miller were better than Luke with Miller
Nemec with Marino were better than Luke with Marino.
And Bahl.

And the best results of Luke were with... Nemec. Luke was better with Siegs, but again - not the same type of situation. And overall very limited span for every pairs. But still.


Again - Nemec faced more ice time against harder competition. For now it is what it is - Nemec is better all around defenseman and coaches trust him more in harder situations, Luke is more impactful in offensive zone(better xGF, worser xGA and xGF% with different partners and overall) and way more impactful in PP.

If Luke and Marino will start to play more regularly together, I think it should balance defensive load and normalize Luke game, even if he will play more pro active role with Marino in cover role, and Nemec will continue to play more cover or\and full two way role.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Nemec with Smith were better than Luke with Smith

Nemec has played 11 total minutes with Smith

Nemec with Miller were better than Luke with Miller

Nemec has played 3 total minutes with Miller

Nemec with Marino were better than Luke with Marino.

Nemec has played 8 total minutes with Marino

And Bahl.

Nemec has played 7 total minutes with Bahl

You do realize how meaningless all of those statements are, right?

And the best results of Luke were with... Nemec. Luke was better with Siegs, but again - not the same type of situation. And overall very limited span for every pairs. But still.

Again - Nemec faced more ice time against harder competition. For now it is what it is - Nemec is better all around defenseman and coaches trust him more in harder situations, Luke is more impactful in offensive zone(better xGF, worser xGA and xGF% with different partners and overall) and way more impactful in PP.

Luke is a better overall defenseman than Nemec IMO. I actually trust him more defensively than Nemec, who has made some uncharacteristically poor turnovers in the last few weeks.

If Luke and Marino will start to play more regularly together, I think it should balance defensive load and normalize Luke game, even if he will play more pro active role with Marino in cover role, and Nemec will continue to play more cover or\and full two way role.

Siegenthaler is the one playing the coverage role, not Nemec.

 

[Guadana]

Nemec has played 11 total minutes with Smith

Nemec has played 3 total minutes with Miller

Nemec has played 8 total minutes with Marino

Nemec has played 7 total minutes with Bahl

You do realize how meaningless all of those statements are, right?

Luke is a better overall defenseman than Nemec IMO. I actually trust him more defensively than Nemec, who has made some uncharacteristically poor turnovers in the last few weeks.


Siegenthaler is the one playing the coverage role, not Nemec.

And overall very limited span for every pairs.

Nemec has more ice time, Nemec has much more 5 on 5 ice time, he is facing more harder competition. And he has better xGA, xGF%, SA, HDCA. He has 1 min per game in PK over 2 seconds for Luke.

Thats it. If you think Luke is better and Siegs is covering, you can think this way. Everybody have the right to an opinion, even if there are having something real to prove it.

 

[HugeInTheShire]

Oh what a time to be alive! People arguing over which Devils rookie defenseman is better.

 

[Tube Skates]

Oh what a time to be alive! People arguing over which Devils rookie defenseman is better.

It’s gotta be hard on management to try to figure out which player is better going forward. I hope they can figure it out before the season is lost