That has nothing to do with my post. The point was someone(s) wanted to give Hutch credit for giving up four goals and playing good for a period of the game. Pavs would have been ripped apart for giving up four goals. People here would have been saying it wouldnt' have went to OT if we had a 'real' goalie.
I think Helle will be a fine goalie. You used save % which like you said the shots are too low for both of them. But both of them are affected greatly by hot starts. Is it fair to remove the hot stretch out and not the cold stretch? No. But what they've done lately compared to what they did their first 1-2 months in the season is more important to me. Do a save% graph for both of them from the start of their careers, you're going to see downhill trends for both of them.
As I mention below, Hutch can look really good in net. But I don't think he has the makeup to be number one. But maybe he can. But it just seems since he's been considered for the number one job, he just makes a mental mistake or two every game and it turns into a goal. Almost every single game he lets in a week goal that should have been a fairly easy save.
Sorry about the confusion to the point of your earlier post.
Yes and no.
I do believe a good or bad goalie can have 4 goals against and have a good game.
I also believe a good goalie is unlikely to consistently have games like that.
Now, by my own eyetest, Hutchinson did a very poor job at first (in part at fault for the high 4 goals against) and did well after so it wasn't worse. Optimally he should do good all game. Pavelec has done that, worse goalies have done that, and better goalies have done that. What Hutchinson still is has *some* to be seen.
As to the downtrend, I think that is disingenuous to overly focus on it just as much as if someone were to overly focus on the hot starts.
The way you should look at it is more like this:
Sorry for bad drawings. I'm in a rush. So not to scale haha.
Red = Pavelec
Blue = Hutchinson
Green = Hellebuyck
The downtrend causes the ceiling to collapse more than the floor. However, the fact that the overall result is still higher, it is still more likely than not that Hutch (and Helle) is better than Pavelec, even though he may be worse and even though the results are trending down.
Helle meanwhile has better results than both, and even though he is also downtrending, he is more likely to be better than Hutch than not... but he could be worse and the smaller sample means there is a greater unknown.