Confirmed with Link: Laine signs, 4 years 8.7 AAV

[Marioesque]

Your logical fallacy is black or white

You presented two alternative states as the only possibilities, when in fact more possibilities exist.

yourlogicalfallacyis.com

Quite a few people here don't think either can be reasonably concluded at this time.

They're entitled to that. We could all use some full healthy seasons from Laine now, to finally gauge that real level.

I just personally think that level has been well proven by now. Nobody scores 18 goals a month by accident. And I won't understand those who emphasize a small sample over full context.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Nobody scores 18 goals a month by accident. And I won't understand those who emphasize a small sample over full context.

This is hilarious.

 

[Marioesque]

This is hilarious.

Only if you're a firm believer of "luck" because you need to extend some damn incredible luck his way over the majority of his career if the one fifth is the "real baseline".

I do not believe in luck. If a guy runs the 100m dash under 9.80 seconds 10 times and falls on his face twice, my conclusion isn't that "all he does is fall on his face".

Shocker, players play worse than their normal when injured. Are we going to assume he's always going to be injured and thus only reach his lowest anymore. A rational expectation isn't that.

 

[Halberdier]

I made it pretty clear my concern is about his play. It’s been implied 1) that I didn’t understand it 2) that I just have something against him personally and 3) that I don’t care about results. I genuinely asked for stats to support the notion that he’s elite - I was given one and I wondered if it didn’t show that he was very good rather than elite. I was told that he has shown the ability to be elite in stretches and glimpses and assured that he will do so again and more.

No, I implied that absolutely no-one understands fully the game of every player myself included. Or actually I did not just imply that, I explicitly said that loud. The best analysts out there make usually better job that us fans, but nobody is perfect and everyone has blind spots for certain types of players, and *therefore* we need to check the results.

Also no-one implied that you don't care about the results. That's ridiculous. My post was made in good faith and with all the respect and zero hostility towards you. Also at least I didn't imply that you would had anything personal against Laine. There is one obvious hater on the thread (and "Lazy Laine" is not the only target of his), but you certainly aren't.

However, I provided more than one stat. There is hardly just one stat that could tell someone is elite or not.

It also might be that we have different opinion about what is elite. Last season there were 1004 skaters on the league. Some top-30-50 of them must be pretty elite. Some top-10 of them superstars like Johnny. Top-1, maybe top-3 might be generational (Crosby, McDavid).

In addition to stats I did provide, jepjepjoo provided etc., there is a fun one. All time Columbus Blue Jacket top list sorted by PPG. For Laine, that includes his by far worst season, and all the worst parts of that season. Also his PPG for this period is lower than his PPG before CBJ. That said, it's not that Laine isn't doing fine on the list nevertheless. Now, is 0.76 PPG elite? It isn't, but his last season would put him 2nd on the list, ahead of Rick Nash that I would certainly regard as an elite skater:

 

[Dumais]

Been thinking about this contract. If he does work out, and in the next two seasons he wins (1) Rocket and couple PPG seasons. We (well at least I will) regret not signing him long term even at a higher cap hit. If he doesn't it's only 4 years and 8.75 on the final year of his deal at TDL is going to make him worth something to a playoff bound team.

But if he does succeed, and it's clear he's going to want a insane contract or headed to a big city in a couple years. He would make a great trade chip to get someone else or replenish the prospect pool. Plus with his and Voracek's contract coming off the books, we could re-sign all our prospects.

The more I think about this deal, the more I like it. Leaves a lot of options open for Jarmo. Really think he is getting better over the years as a GM.

 

[Ippenator]

Only if you're a firm believer of "luck" because you need to extend some damn incredible luck his way over the majority of his career if the one fifth is the "real baseline".

I do not believe in luck. If a guy runs the 100m dash under 9.80 seconds 10 times and falls on his face twice, my conclusion isn't that "all he does is fall on his face".

Shocker, players play worse than their normal when injured. Are we going to assume he's always going to be injured and thus only reach his lowest anymore. A rational expectation isn't that.

Quite well said. I also don’t believe that much in luck, or at least in it as a meaningful factor in sports. I believe that first of all you make your own luck, and the key factor is still skill. When you have special skills, it will more and more turn even desperate looking situations to your favor. It might often seem like luck, but it still is more than that most of the time.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Only if you're a firm believer of "luck" because you need to extend some damn incredible luck his way over the majority of his career if the one fifth is the "real baseline".

I do not believe in luck. If a guy runs the 100m dash under 9.80 seconds 10 times and falls on his face twice, my conclusion isn't that "all he does is fall on his face".

Shocker, players play worse than their normal when injured. Are we going to assume he's always going to be injured and thus only reach his lowest anymore. A rational expectation isn't that.

It’s hilarious because you mention an 18-goal month and then complain that people use what you call a small sample size.

Perhaps you are spot on about “luck” but it’s some pretty high mental gymnastics to think that not playing both sides of the coin.

You’re probably right in your other post because it’s hard to remember who posted what and quite frankly I’m bored again if this topic sonIm just going to let it be.

 

[Murky]

Let me inject a new point of view to the discussion. Laine has been 2nd in goal scoring behind Ovechkin, over a whole season in the NHL. I think that counts as elite? He also finished in top 10 as a rookie.

 

[Forepar]

Being an elite player, having an elite skill and having an elite season are theee different things in my book.

Being an elite player is not a season or two …it is stringing elite seasons together, not an occasional elite year (injuries or not). It is stringing consistent elite play night after night. It is eliminating almost all weak parts of one’s game.

Having an elite skill is the equivalent of Laine’s shot.

Laine has had two, maybe 2.5 “elite” seasons.

That doesn’t make Laine an elite player— yet. When he strings those types of seasons together, then yes, he would be elite. When he consistently improves some areas of play in which he is mediocre at best so that those areas do not detract from his other elite skills, then yes.

That doesn’t mean I think he won’t get there. NHL Network showed “Top 50 Prospects” last night…one of the qualifiers was 25 years of age or younger (also less than 25 NHL games, Laine is not a prospect by their definition). What Laine is - an established good/great player with an elite skill, some great other skills and some warts…and who is STILL just 24 and STILL developing.

He shows stretches of elite play. I am hopeful those stretches become longer and then a nightly occurrence. He may very well become an elite player. I agree with DSL. The constant back and forth over whether Laine is garbage (one poster who is being hyperbolic to make a point) and a few other Laine “trumpeters” has become tiresome.
Laine is ours, at $8.7M for 4 years. A fair deal. I hope he blows the doors off so that the next extension is a whopper. He has the talent and a great opportunity to do just that.

 

[Murky]

Being an elite player, having an elite skill and having an elite season are theee different things in my book.

Being an elite player is not a season or two …it is stringing elite seasons together, not an occasional elite year (injuries or not). It is stringing consistent elite play night after night. It is eliminating almost all weak parts of one’s game.

Having an elite skill is the equivalent of Laine’s shot.

Laine has had two, maybe 2.5 “elite” seasons.

That doesn’t make Laine an elite player— yet. When he strings those types of seasons together, then yes, he would be elite. When he consistently improves some areas of play in which he is mediocre at best so that those areas do not detract from his other elite skills, then yes.

That doesn’t mean I think he won’t get there. NHL Network showed “Top 50 Prospects” last night…one of the qualifiers was 25 years of age or younger (also less than 25 NHL games, Laine is not a prospect by their definition). What Laine is - an established good/great player with an elite skill, some great other skills and some warts…and who is STILL just 24 and STILL developing.

He shows stretches of elite play. I am hopeful those stretches become longer and then a nightly occurrence. He may very well become an elite player. I agree with DSL. The constant back and forth over whether Laine is garbage (one poster who is being hyperbolic to make a point) and a few other Laine “trumpeters” has become tiresome.
Laine is ours, at $8.7M for 4 years. A fair deal. I hope he blows the doors off so that the next extension is a whopper. He has the talent and a great opportunity to do just that.

Fair enough on the trumpeteer -part. Too bad that the admin doesn't agree with me about having a board for player specific threads. Most of this doesn't really belong on a CBJ board.

EDIT for clarity: by "most of this" I am referring to my own messages only.