Lafreniere Vs Stutzle/Sanderson

[Trueblue30]

The idea of Ottawa trading 3 and 5 for number 1 was discussed around here. So now that the players have been selected which would you rather have for your team?

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[EdJovanovski]

Lafreniere

 

[Taluss]

Playoff team or team just about over the mid pack hump : Laf. A team such as Ott with holes absolutely everywhere. Stutzle and Sanderson

 

[Oilers Propagandist]

Even if you have a SC contending team you take Stutzle and Sanderson.

 

[Krewe]

Assuming Ottawa drafted “correctly” and got the 3rd and 5th best players from the draft, then you would go with their guys unless Laf WAY over performs and becomes a bonafide top 2-3 player in the league

obviously we can’t know yet, but in how many drafts is the eventual best player worth more than the eventual 3rd and 5th best players?

 

[Krewe]

Just looking at 14 drafts from 2005 to 2018. Here is the best player in the draft vs the 3rd and 5th best players according to online redrafts

2005 Crosby vs Rask & Quick
2006 Toews vs Backstrom & Marchand
2007: Kane vs Subban & Mcdonagh
2008: Doughty vs Karlsson & Holtby
2009: Tavares vs O’Reilly & OEL
2010: Seguin vs Stone & Klingberg
2011: Kucherov vs Landeskog & Gibson
2012: Vasilevskiy vs Teravainen & Anderson
2013: MacKinnon vs Barkov & Horvat
2014: Draisaitl vs Point & Larkin
2015: McDavid vs Marner & Barzal
2016: Matthews vs Laine & Debrincat
2017: Pettersson vs Heiskanen & Suzuki
2018: Dahlin vs Hughes & Kotkaniemi

The trend I am seeing is that you have to hope you draft the best player (which for the point of this exercise we can assume Laf is) AND that A) he ends up being a top top player at his position in the league for years or B) it is a weak draft and the 3 and 5 are not very compelling. Over 14 drafts I had it 7-7 for which I would prefer of the 3rd and 5th best players from a draft. But even still, I’d rather bet on the two picks with Ottawa than the one pick with NY especially knowing the math behind pick value

 

[biturbo19]

It's so tempting to go for the "2 for 1" special. But i still have to go with the more known "name brand" commodity in Lafreiere.

 

[treple13]

Not as high on Sanderson as many, so I'll go Lafreniere. If I could pick someone else in that slot I might change my mind.

 

[Bouboumaster]

As a Habs fan, Lafrenière for damn sure. He's exactly what we need right now.

 

[Mickey Marner]

I would take Lafreniere, but neither team should do that trade.

 

[Regal]

Just looking at 14 drafts from 2005 to 2018. Here is the best player in the draft vs the 3rd and 5th best players according to online redrafts

2005 Crosby vs Rask & Quick
2006 Toews vs Backstrom & Marchand
2007: Kane vs Subban & Mcdonagh
2008: Doughty vs Karlsson & Holtby
2009: Tavares vs O’Reilly & OEL
2010: Seguin vs Stone & Klingberg
2011: Kucherov vs Landeskog & Gibson
2012: Vasilevskiy vs Teravainen & Anderson
2013: MacKinnon vs Barkov & Horvat
2014: Draisaitl vs Point & Larkin
2015: McDavid vs Marner & Barzal
2016: Matthews vs Laine & Debrincat
2017: Pettersson vs Heiskanen & Suzuki
2018: Dahlin vs Hughes & Kotkaniemi

The trend I am seeing is that you have to hope you draft the best player (which for the point of this exercise we can assume Laf is) AND that A) he ends up being a top top player at his position in the league for years or B) it is a weak draft and the 3 and 5 are not very compelling. Over 14 drafts I had it 7-7 for which I would prefer of the 3rd and 5th best players from a draft. But even still, I’d rather bet on the two picks with Ottawa than the one pick with NY especially knowing the math behind pick value

But why would we assume both the Rangers and Ottawa picked correctly? Players become much less likely to reach their potential as you get away from #1, who almost always ends up a star. How many 3rd and 5th picks end up better than the 1st overall is what we need to look at.

2005: Crosby vs. Jack Johnson & Price
2006: Erik Johnson vs. Toews & Kessel
2007: Kane vs. Turris & Alzner
2008: Stamkos vs. Bogosian & Luke Schenn
2009: Tavares vs. Duchene & Brayden Schenn -push
2010: Hall vs. Gudbranson & Niederreiter
2011: RNH vs. Huberdeau & Ryan Strome
2012: Yakupov vs. Galchenyuk & Rielly
2013: MacKinnon vs. Drouin & Lindholm
2014: Ekblad vs. Draisaitl & Dal Colle
2015: McDavid vs. Dylan Strome & Hanifin
2016: Matthews vs. Dubois & Juolevi
2017: Hischier vs. Heiskanen & Pettersson
2018: Dahlin vs. Kotkaniemi & Hayton

With this we have 8 for the 1st overall vs 5 for 3rd and 5th and 1 that's probably a push. We also see that almost all the drafts where there was a clear-cut #1 like Lafreniere end up being better for the 1st overall.

 

[Regal]

Even if you have a SC contending team you take Stutzle and Sanderson.

No you don't. Far more likely to get value out of Laf on an ELC that helps push you over the top

 

[Regal]

Playoff team or team just about over the mid pack hump : Laf. A team such as Ott with holes absolutely everywhere. Stutzle and Sanderson

I understand this viewpoint, but Ottawa also needs high end forwards if they'reever going to compete. Maybe Stutzle becomes that, but it's far more likely that Laf will.

 

[Oilers Propagandist]

No you don't. Far more likely to get value out of Laf on an ELC that helps push you over the top

I personally think Stutzle is very good and will max his value on his elc, plus they have Sanderson? Idk, I would take those 2 over laf any day.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

LAFAINEC. Those other two jokers are scrubs.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I’m not a huge fan of Sanderson, so this isn’t very hard. If it was Stuetzle and my fifth best player on my list, it’d be a harder question.

 

[bobholly39]

But why would we assume both the Rangers and Ottawa picked correctly? Players become much less likely to reach their potential as you get away from #1, who almost always ends up a star. How many 3rd and 5th picks end up better than the 1st overall is what we need to look at.

2005: Crosby vs. Jack Johnson & Price
2006: Erik Johnson vs. Toews & Kessel
2007: Kane vs. Turris & Alzner
2008: Stamkos vs. Bogosian & Luke Schenn
2009: Tavares vs. Duchene & Brayden Schenn -push
2010: Hall vs. Gudbranson & Niederreiter
2011: RNH vs. Huberdeau & Ryan Strome
2012: Yakupov vs. Galchenyuk & Rielly
2013: MacKinnon vs. Drouin & Lindholm
2014: Ekblad vs. Draisaitl & Dal Colle
2015: McDavid vs. Dylan Strome & Hanifin
2016: Matthews vs. Dubois & Juolevi
2017: Hischier vs. Heiskanen & Pettersson
2018: Dahlin vs. Kotkaniemi & Hayton

With this we have 8 for the 1st overall vs 5 for 3rd and 5th and 1 that's probably a push. We also see that almost all the drafts where there was a clear-cut #1 like Lafreniere end up being better for the 1st overall.

Thanks for posting - this is the much better comparable.

To me this is easily Lafreniere. Any #1 draft pick who was on the same tier or above Laf as a rookie is bolded in your list (Crosby, McDavid, Matthews, Dahlin - maybe Mack & Tavares (i'd pick Tavares).

I think in years where a prospect was as highly rated/regarded/slam dunk as Lafreniere is - he almost always ends up the best choice. Guys you didn't bold like Johnson, Ekbald, Hischier, RNH, Yakupov - those were all a tier below as prospects than what Laf is.

I think that's what it comes down to. Beyond that - it's just luck. The #3 and 5 picks can up being generational players for all we know - that's the more unpredictable part, but odds are Laf ends up the better value long term. Also - the much safer value

 

[Skolman]

I’m not a huge fan of Sanderson, so this isn’t very hard. If it was Stuetzle and my fifth best player on my list, it’d be a harder question.

That will change, future top pairing defenseman 100%.

 

[TheMule93]

There were a few combinations of stutzle and someone that I'd entertain over Laf... Stutzle/Sanderson is not one of those

 

[Sting]

I’m not a huge fan of Sanderson, so this isn’t very hard. If it was Stuetzle and my fifth best player on my list, it’d be a harder question.

Just out of curiosity, what's not to like? He's the unique blend of size and skating every team is looking for right now. His defensive game will translate perfectly to the NHL. His offensive game has improved considerably over the past year.

I guess people wanted Ottawa to gamble on one of the forwards? I wouldn't say Drysdale either as we already have Brannstrom/Thomson who play a very, very similar game.

 

[slimbob8]

We have the same conversation every year. All I can say is go back 25 years in the draft and compare pick #1 vs picks #3+5 in hindsight after they've played 5+ years in the league. Way more often than not you would have rather had pick #1 on your team given the choice. Everybody thinks their prospects are gonna pan out right after they're drafted; they're all bound to be superstars. But few pan out as consistently as #1 picks do.

 

[Fatass]

This poll is Laughable.

 

[Taluss]

I understand this viewpoint, but Ottawa also needs high end forwards if they'reever going to compete. Maybe Stutzle becomes that, but it's far more likely that Laf will.

True but I’d rather have 2 very good players than 1 star player on a team that has a lot of holes. Stutzle and Sanderson help fill that. Especially if Stutzle comes close to as good as Laf which who knows

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Lafreniere easily he’s the best hockey player plus the fact he’s hyped and a first overall pick he’s going to bring more money to the organization. A low revenue team like Ottawa especially needs players like him who will attract fans to games and sell jerseys.

 

[DomBarr]

I would take the 2 for 1...based on Hype and ceilings because they haven't played a game in the NHL yet...
I would take a top pair 2 way dman and a really good winger/center over an elite/franchise level winger