GDT: LA Kings 2013 NHL Draft

[Ziggy Stardust]

The Kings will have 10 selections in the 2013 NHL Draft.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=675365

57. Los Angeles Round 2
88. Los Angeles Round 3
96. Los Angeles (from Car. in Kevin Westgarth trade) Round 4
103. Los Angeles (from Phx-CBJ-Phi. in Simon Gagne trade) Round 4
118. Los Angeles Round 4
146. Los Angeles (from Mtl. in Davis Drewiske trade) Round 5
148. Los Angeles Round 5
178. Los Angeles Round 6
191. Los Angeles (from Dal. for 7th round pick in 2012) Round 7
208. Los Angeles

Click to read more...

 

[Fat Elvis]

I'm guessing DL doesn't use all 10. Maybe use a couple 4th's and a 5th to get another 3rd. So, my uneducated guess is that DL will draft 7-8 players on Sunday. And #57 will be John Hayden

 

[Tadite]

I think we have zero idea of who is on the kings radar. I haven't seen to many overagers getting hyped (except for a brief mention of a goalie from Slovenia.).

Who knows maybe someone like Zykov or another of the Russians drops and we make a trade up for him.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

A name that I like who may be around where the Kings' pick at 57:

Nick Moutrey, LW/C/RW (can play all three forward positions), 6'2" 208
http://www.nhl.com/ice/draftprospectdetail.htm?cat=1&dpid=82293&sort=finalRank&year=2013
http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/jr...er-nick-moutrey-saginaw-spirit-050332068.html
http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/nick-moutrey/
http://www.mlive.com/spirit/index.ssf/2013/06/saginaw_spirits_nick_moutrey_s.html







Game Highlight vs. Sarnia, Moutrey scores on an impressive breakaway in the first goal of the game:
http://www.saginawspirit.com/video/index/id/37806e86ba3adcc167f7743140909a4c

Go to 1:53 in this video against Windsor to see Moutrey make a smart play as he rushes the puck up ice and sets up a goal. I like his ability to protect the puck here and looks like he has a long range due to his size and the long stick that he plays with:
http://www.saginawspirit.com/video/index/id/fc351c30427fbd6db973f84acd882dcf

Moutrey sets up two goals with strong plays on both setups in this game against the Guelph Storm:
http://www.saginawspirit.com/video/index/id/1362942304

 

[palffytofrovlov]

I can see Moutry in the 3rd round...THN has him ranked 96th, Ryan Kennedy has him ranked 93rd... I think in the 2nd round it will be either one of Emile Poirier LW or Dillion Heatherington D

 

[King'sPawn]

I actually have been working on a project that guesses how much certain, random prospects have been on Lombardi's radar.

Obviously it's not a guess of who he will draft, but more of a reflection of how familiar he is with the players.

I will post the results and rationale later, when I get home from work.

 

[clearwater]

I can see Moutry in the 3rd round...THN has him ranked 96th, Ryan Kennedy has him ranked 93rd... I think in the 2nd round it will be either one of Emile Poirier LW or Dillion Heatherington D

Quite a few NHL teams have Moutrey ranked a lot higher. He is a big strong skilled power forward who has a powerful stride, vision, soft hands, great shot and high ceiling of potential

 

[DaAnimal]

grab Curtis Lazar if he's available

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

grab Curtis Lazar if he's available

I doubt he will be where the Kings are picking.

 

[DryIslandBartender]

Any chance we trade up into the first round? I think we're gonna see a lot of activity from DL in this draft. They'll be well prepared.

 

[King'sPawn]

So here are my results of my math, which was applied to every prospect I randomly (and not so randomly) looked at. I conducted a thread on LGK, and some other people threw some prospects out as well. I won't show the math, since this will be a long enough post. If people insist on it, I'll post it, but bear in mind this is all subjective anyway.

Also remember, as I said above, this is NOT a predictor of who Lombardi will draft. But, I looked at past players Lombardi has drafted, and used their circumstances to create a rudimentary system of where future prospects might be on Lombardi's radar. This, therefore, basically guesses how comfortable Lombardi is with each prospect.

Lombardi is very CHL dependent. Of his 55 picks in the previous 6 drafts, 15 have come from the OHL, 11 from the WHL, and 7 from the QMJHL. As such players from the OHL get a bit more weight than any other league. Players from the WHL get a little less, Q a little less, and so forth. He has drafted from the USHL (including the USNTDP) 6 times. He's also drafted from various other NA leagues, all of which have little weight.

He has made 7 picks out of Europe. 4 have been from Russia, 2 from Sweden, and 1 from Germany. This suggests he has most of his scouts focused in Russia and Sweden, and the additional hire of a Swedish scout earlier this year supports that. So players in the Russian and Swedish leagues have a bit more weight than players in other European countries.

I also noticed he has some position bias by league. For example, he has never drafted a goaltender from the OHL or from Europe. So, I decided to do more research, and found there's definitely a position bias; 9 of Lombardi's 15 picks from the OHL have been forwards, with the other 6 being defensemen. Conversely, only 2 of his picks from the Q have been forwards, 3 have been defensemen, and 3 have been goalies. I broke down every league from which he has drafted, and the position of players he drafted (I only separated by Forward, Defense, Goalie, since RW, LW, C can change over time and be subjective). So, players who play a position in a particular league will get more weight than players who play a different position in the same league, or players who play the same position in a different league. Still with me?

I also separated the players by height. Lombardi has drafted 12 players under 6'. He has drafted 25 players between 6'0 and 6'1. He has drafted 18 players 6'2 and above. The 6'0 and 6'1 players have the most weight. Even though big players arguably have more upside, they also have a longer learning curve. Similarly, smaller players may reach their peak sooner, but they have lesser upside. This is the rationale between the size differential.

I also considered using handedness as a factor, considering we know how much Lombardi loves right handed defensemen... but out of his 55 picks, it's split 50/50, so I considered that a wash.

I used home countries as a factor, since culture and relationships have a lot of weight. Lombardi has drafted 27 Canadians and 18 Americans. The other 10 players have come from Europe (4 Russians, 3 Swedes, and 1 each born in Germany, Finland, Czech Republic). Consequently, Canadian born players have more weight, Americans have the second most, etc.

Lombardi has drafted at least one player from the CHL Top Prospect tournament every year. So I added that to a player's score.

Mike Futa has his connections to Owen Sound, and we know they've used it before to land a player like Simmonds, so players in Owen Sound get bonus points.

A lot of the players Lombardi has drafted have competed internationally, so I added points.

Since Lombardi likes familiarity and family, and because I'm sure the Kings are watching their own prospects, I added to players who are/were teammates with a Kings prospect.

With all that in mind, here's how they rank, with their subjective familiarity number next to them.

Zach Nastasiuk, RW - OHL (51)
Bo Horvat, C - OHL (45)
Chris Bigras, D - OHL (44.25)
Kerby Rychel, LW - OHL (44.25)
Morgan Klimchuk, LW - WHL (42)
Curtis Lazar, RW/C - WHL (41)
Nicolas Petan, C - WHL (41)
Ryan Hartman, RW - OHL (40.95)
Myles Bell, D - WHL (39.3)
Justin Bailey, RW - OHL (37)
Oliver Bjorkstrand, LW - WHL (36)
Kyle Burroughs, D - WHL (35)
Frederik Gauthier, LW/RW - QMJHL (34.5)
Anthony Mantha, RW - QMJHL (34.5)
Laurent Dauphin, C - QMJHL (34.4)
Spencer Martin, G - OHL (33.8)
Shea Theodore, D - WHL (33.6)
Alex Gudbranson, D - OHL (33.4)
Sergei Tolchinsky, LW - OHL (32.45)
Philippe Desrosiers, G - QMJHL (32.2)
Tristan Jarry, G - WHL (32)
Nick Moutrey, LW/C - OHL (31.8)
Barclay Goodrow, RW - OHL (31.8)
Valentin Zykov, LW - QMJHL (31.45)
Adam Erne, LW - QMJHL (28.95)
Mirco Mueller, D - WHL (28.6)
Eric Roy, D - WHL (28.6)
William Carrier, LW - QMJHL (28.5)
Matt Buckles, C - OJHL (28.2)
Kayle Doetzel, D - WHL (27.8)
Hudson Fasching, RW - USHL (27.15)
Michael McCarron, RW - USHL (27.15)
Pavel Buchnevich, LW - MHL (26.85)
Dillon Heatherington, D - WHL (26.6)
Taylor Cammarata, LW/C - USHL (26.05)
Ryan Pulock, D - WHL (25.8)
Anton Slepyshev, LW - KHL (25.65)
Keaton Thompson, D - USHL (25.35)
Emile Poirier, LW - QMJHL (24.7)
Steven Santini, D - USHL (24.15)
Marko Dano, C - KHL (23.8)
Andrei Burakowsky, LW - Sweden (22)
Jacob de la Rose, LW - Sweden (21.3)
Patrik Bartosak, G - WHL (20.2)
Robert Hägg, D - Sweden (18.3)
Jonathan-Ismael Diaby, D - QMJHL (16.5)
Alex Coulombe, D - High School Prep (11.3)
Brett Pesce, D - NCAA (9.55)

Keep in mind that Zach Nastasiuk has the highest possible number, because he fits in every criteria:
* He's a forward, which is the position Lombardi drafts the most of
* He's in the OHL, the league Lombardi drafts the most out of.
* As a forward in the OHL, he would be the most common type of player picked
* He is a top prospect with International Experience, playing for Owen Sound and a teammate of Kurtis MacDermid (a Kings prospect)
* He's the most common size
* He's Canadian.

 

[BigBrown]

Any chance we trade up into the first round? I think we're gonna see a lot of activity from DL in this draft. They'll be well prepared.

That'd be great but unfortunately I doubt it. I mean what do we have to trade? A bunch of late picks aren't moving us up to the first round. We'd have to trade a high profile player like Williams.

 

[Sacha Baron Corbin]

I can still see us use a 6th or 7th on Slepyshlev, hopefully Dean goes with the best winger available in the 2nd and I see him taking a goalie around the 5th round.

 

[Telos]

I can still see us use a 6th or 7th on Slepyshlev, hopefully Dean goes with the best winger available in the 2nd and I see him taking a goalie around the 5th round.

We are guaranteed to take at least one goalie this draft, and I wouldn't be surprised if we grabbed two.

 

[McSorley 33]

Thanks KP for posting that.

 

[McSorley 33]

Nice pick Ziggy;I watched the videos and like it. He looks like Corey Perry a little bit there (facial features)!

 

[CNS]

Slepyshev, Slepyshev, Slepyshev. If we call his name, I'll be running around my house screaming profanities in a fit of pure joy.

 

[goosh]

Please, please take a flyer on Bartosak. He's so underrated.

 

[Captain Mittens*]

Nice pick Ziggy;I watched the videos and like it. He looks like Corey Perry a little bit there (facial features)!

I don't want a player that I want to punch in the face

 

[HairyBeastHockey]

I think Lombardi picks D Eric Roy and then trades up (uses our 3rd and one or two fourths) and drafts G Eric Comrie. But knowing Dean, he'll go off the board.

 

[FrozenRoyalty]

2013 NHL Draft Will Be A Bigger Crapshoot Than Usual For The Los Angeles Kings

 

[King'sPawn]

Hey Gann, you forgot to include the reason for the second 5th round pick: the Davis Drewiske trade.

 

[clearwater]

A name that I like who may be around where the Kings' pick at 57:

Nick Moutrey, LW/C/RW (can play all three forward positions), 6'2" 208
http://www.nhl.com/ice/draftprospectdetail.htm?cat=1&dpid=82293&sort=finalRank&year=2013
http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/jr...er-nick-moutrey-saginaw-spirit-050332068.html
http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/nick-moutrey/
http://www.mlive.com/spirit/index.ssf/2013/06/saginaw_spirits_nick_moutrey_s.html







Game Highlight vs. Sarnia, Moutrey scores on an impressive breakaway in the first goal of the game:
http://www.saginawspirit.com/video/index/id/37806e86ba3adcc167f7743140909a4c

Go to 1:53 in this video against Windsor to see Moutrey make a smart play as he rushes the puck up ice and sets up a goal. I like his ability to protect the puck here and looks like he has a long range due to his size and the long stick that he plays with:
http://www.saginawspirit.com/video/index/id/fc351c30427fbd6db973f84acd882dcf

Moutrey sets up two goals with strong plays on both setups in this game against the Guelph Storm:
http://www.saginawspirit.com/video/index/id/1362942304

Doesn't get all the attention and accolades like the others but watch for his name in the near future. The team that picks him is going to get a heluva a player, he is only going to get better.

http://www.mlive.com/spirit/index.ssf/2013/06/nhl_draft_preview_saginaw_spir_1.html

 

[Face Wash]

So here are my results of my math, which was applied to every prospect I randomly (and not so randomly) looked at. I conducted a thread on LGK, and some other people threw some prospects out as well. I won't show the math, since this will be a long enough post. If people insist on it, I'll post it, but bear in mind this is all subjective anyway.

Also remember, as I said above, this is NOT a predictor of who Lombardi will draft. But, I looked at past players Lombardi has drafted, and used their circumstances to create a rudimentary system of where future prospects might be on Lombardi's radar. This, therefore, basically guesses how comfortable Lombardi is with each prospect.

Lombardi is very CHL dependent. Of his 55 picks in the previous 6 drafts, 15 have come from the OHL, 11 from the WHL, and 7 from the QMJHL. As such players from the OHL get a bit more weight than any other league. Players from the WHL get a little less, Q a little less, and so forth. He has drafted from the USHL (including the USNTDP) 6 times. He's also drafted from various other NA leagues, all of which have little weight.

He has made 7 picks out of Europe. 4 have been from Russia, 2 from Sweden, and 1 from Germany. This suggests he has most of his scouts focused in Russia and Sweden, and the additional hire of a Swedish scout earlier this year supports that. So players in the Russian and Swedish leagues have a bit more weight than players in other European countries.

I also noticed he has some position bias by league. For example, he has never drafted a goaltender from the OHL or from Europe. So, I decided to do more research, and found there's definitely a position bias; 9 of Lombardi's 15 picks from the OHL have been forwards, with the other 6 being defensemen. Conversely, only 2 of his picks from the Q have been forwards, 3 have been defensemen, and 3 have been goalies. I broke down every league from which he has drafted, and the position of players he drafted (I only separated by Forward, Defense, Goalie, since RW, LW, C can change over time and be subjective). So, players who play a position in a particular league will get more weight than players who play a different position in the same league, or players who play the same position in a different league. Still with me?

I also separated the players by height. Lombardi has drafted 12 players under 6'. He has drafted 25 players between 6'0 and 6'1. He has drafted 18 players 6'2 and above. The 6'0 and 6'1 players have the most weight. Even though big players arguably have more upside, they also have a longer learning curve. Similarly, smaller players may reach their peak sooner, but they have lesser upside. This is the rationale between the size differential.

I also considered using handedness as a factor, considering we know how much Lombardi loves right handed defensemen... but out of his 55 picks, it's split 50/50, so I considered that a wash.

I used home countries as a factor, since culture and relationships have a lot of weight. Lombardi has drafted 27 Canadians and 18 Americans. The other 10 players have come from Europe (4 Russians, 3 Swedes, and 1 each born in Germany, Finland, Czech Republic). Consequently, Canadian born players have more weight, Americans have the second most, etc.

Lombardi has drafted at least one player from the CHL Top Prospect tournament every year. So I added that to a player's score.

Mike Futa has his connections to Owen Sound, and we know they've used it before to land a player like Simmonds, so players in Owen Sound get bonus points.

A lot of the players Lombardi has drafted have competed internationally, so I added points.

Since Lombardi likes familiarity and family, and because I'm sure the Kings are watching their own prospects, I added to players who are/were teammates with a Kings prospect.

With all that in mind, here's how they rank, with their subjective familiarity number next to them.

Zach Nastasiuk, RW - OHL (51)
Bo Horvat, C - OHL (45)
Chris Bigras, D - OHL (44.25)
Kerby Rychel, LW - OHL (44.25)
Morgan Klimchuk, LW - WHL (42)
Curtis Lazar, RW/C - WHL (41)
Nicolas Petan, C - WHL (41)
Ryan Hartman, RW - OHL (40.95)
Myles Bell, D - WHL (39.3)
Justin Bailey, RW - OHL (37)
Oliver Bjorkstrand, LW - WHL (36)
Kyle Burroughs, D - WHL (35)
Frederik Gauthier, LW/RW - QMJHL (34.5)
Anthony Mantha, RW - QMJHL (34.5)
Laurent Dauphin, C - QMJHL (34.4)
Spencer Martin, G - OHL (33.8)
Shea Theodore, D - WHL (33.6)
Alex Gudbranson, D - OHL (33.4)
Sergei Tolchinsky, LW - OHL (32.45)
Philippe Desrosiers, G - QMJHL (32.2)
Tristan Jarry, G - WHL (32)
Nick Moutrey, LW/C - OHL (31.8)
Barclay Goodrow, RW - OHL (31.8)
Valentin Zykov, LW - QMJHL (31.45)
Adam Erne, LW - QMJHL (28.95)
Mirco Mueller, D - WHL (28.6)
Eric Roy, D - WHL (28.6)
William Carrier, LW - QMJHL (28.5)
Matt Buckles, C - OJHL (28.2)
Kayle Doetzel, D - WHL (27.8)
Hudson Fasching, RW - USHL (27.15)
Michael McCarron, RW - USHL (27.15)
Pavel Buchnevich, LW - MHL (26.85)
Dillon Heatherington, D - WHL (26.6)
Taylor Cammarata, LW/C - USHL (26.05)
Ryan Pulock, D - WHL (25.8)
Anton Slepyshev, LW - KHL (25.65)
Keaton Thompson, D - USHL (25.35)
Emile Poirier, LW - QMJHL (24.7)
Steven Santini, D - USHL (24.15)
Marko Dano, C - KHL (23.8)
Andrei Burakowsky, LW - Sweden (22)
Jacob de la Rose, LW - Sweden (21.3)
Patrik Bartosak, G - WHL (20.2)
Robert Hägg, D - Sweden (18.3)
Jonathan-Ismael Diaby, D - QMJHL (16.5)
Alex Coulombe, D - High School Prep (11.3)
Brett Pesce, D - NCAA (9.55)

Keep in mind that Zach Nastasiuk has the highest possible number, because he fits in every criteria:
* He's a forward, which is the position Lombardi drafts the most of
* He's in the OHL, the league Lombardi drafts the most out of.
* As a forward in the OHL, he would be the most common type of player picked
* He is a top prospect with International Experience, playing for Owen Sound and a teammate of Kurtis MacDermid (a Kings prospect)
* He's the most common size
* He's Canadian.

I like your thinking here. Dissecting data to find trends is always a fun thing for us nerds to do. You've sorta missed something though. Most, not all, but most guys who play in the USHL or the US developmental program, while being drafted out of that program, go to college and play. Trevor Lewis is a rare player that didn't follow that route. Paul Ladue didn't either, but virtually everyone else Dean Drafted has. In fact, Lombardi has drafted 11 players that either were in college or went to college after the draft and I don't see much discussion of this in your analysis. And there's no way Dean and his scouts don't know precisely what their future plans are before he drafts them. You might not know, but they defintielty do know and that can tip your rankings in a significant way.

As I said, I like what you've done, don't get me wrong, nice work....but you have to take that obscure, little known organization called the NCAA into account with this as well, IMO.

 

[CNS]

I like your thinking here. Dissecting data to find trends is always a fun thing for us nerds to do. You've sorta missed something though. Most, not all, but most guys who play in the USHL or the US developmental program, while being drafted out of that program, go to college and play. Trevor Lewis is a rare player that didn't follow that route. Paul Ladue didn't either, but virtually everyone else Dean Drafted has. In fact, Lombardi has drafted 11 players that either were in college or went to college after the draft and I don't see much discussion of this in your analysis. And there's no way Dean and his scouts don't know precisely what their future plans are before he drafts them. You might not know, but they defintielty do know and that can tip your rankings in a significant way.

As I said, I like what you've done, don't get me wrong, nice work....but you have to take that obscure, little known organization called the NCAA into account with this as well, IMO.

Paul LaDue is going to North Dakota this year I believe.

Also, dissecting data is great and all but it sorta worries me that Dean can have these guys that really "fit". We haven't drafted well out of Sweden at all under him and that's a shame. The only European country that we draft well under him is Russia (and I love that because Lokti, Slava, and Porkins are my favorites) but it's troublesome that we can't seem to get quality players out of Finland, Sweden, Czech Republic, or anywhere else over there. It's not really a huge thing as long as Dean continues to draft as well as he does but I can't help but think he could maybe do even better if we strengthened our Euro scouting. Very curious for Tonelli's thought here as he's much better connected than I am.