I'll start by saying you're one of the best posters on HFOil and give thorough and detailed responses,but I have to strongly disagree on this one.
1) Your recall of the Varlamov deal. Many people thought that could be a top 10 pick. Just go back and look at the initial reaction on the main trade boards. Proof being the very next year they finish 2nd last. They were not "a goalie away" from being relevant. It would also be one thing if it were just the 11th pick in 2012, but that turned out to be Filip Forsberg. Just saying, Varlamov returned considerable value.
2) A lot of people seem to take this stance that goalies just magically appear, let someone else draft and develop them, then scoop them up for pennies on the dollar (like Varlamov????). Somebody has to draft them. What if everyone took the same approach- you'd never see a goalie drafted.
Tampa didn't need Vasilevsky when they drafted him, sure looks good they took him now though. Washington was able to trade Orpik's contract because of Grubauer/Samsonov. If you draft and develop a starter/NHL calibre goalie, you open a lot of doors for yourself. Imagine Tampa with no Vasilevsky - they're probably locked into Bishop 6x6 right now. You draft and develop a guy, it can help with negotiations with your current guy.
We should draft a goalie every year.
I recalled the Varlamov deal wrong, I thought it came after the year they made the playoffs, it didn't.
So my argument Washington is the best case scenario with the vast majority of teams not having that kind of hit rate or success with drafting goalies, the reasonable assumption is we won't hit with the same frequency as Washington, possibly cause we aren't as good at drafting goalies or as good at developing goalies, or some combination of the two.
If you hit a homerun with a goalie and let's say get a top 5-10 goalie in the league you are doing cart wheels and their trade value is generally pretty irrelevant cause you'll likely be keeping them and be very happy to do so. This is the case you are arguing for as drafting goalies can net you that top 10 goalie that is otherwise very hard if not impossible to get. Now with the rate we've been drafting goalies we likely want more than one of our goalies to pan out, or atleast it would be nice if that occurred. Being that you don't need 2 starting goalies you generally see the lesser of the two traded at some point (generally when they want more then back-up goalie money).
So what are goalies worth:
- Top 5 goalie in the league seem to never get traded so it's hard to gauge
- Top 10 goalies are rarely traded, the closest comparable might be Corey Schneider when he was traded he didn't play starter minutes, but he saw a lot more ice than most back-ups and had crazy good numbers. (traded for 9th overall)
- Top 10-20 goalies- kind of hard to say this batch of goalies is often comprised of goalies who had a brief stint as a top 10 goalie and their game slid a bit, so they are often a bit overpaid and their price often takes a hit cause of it. Let's just say a mid-1st round pick, but can be diminished by contract or age.
- Top 20-30 goalies are generally not worth much, anyone who has one in this range is usually looking to get their hands on a better goalie and they often get rotated around through free agency.
- Then you have your high end goalie prospects- who look like they have upside to be a top 20 or better goalie, these ones often get a decent and successful stint as back-up goalies prior to being traded and generally net a late 1st round pick or early 2nd round pick with some possible change. e.g. Talbot, Bernier, Martin Jones, Bobrovsky
- Then you have your 30-45th best goalies- the guality back-ups can net a 3rd or 4th round pick and the starters who lost their job to a back-up are albatrosses who get you nothing.
- Then anything after that is pretty close to non-existent value.
So in brief you get your superstar goalie who is one of the 10 best goalies in the world and you are very happy to keep them, you get a top 10-20 goalie in the world or an elite goalie prospect (let's say there is roughly 8-10 of them floating around at any one time) and you can likely get a pretty decent or good return if you traded them. So you've got 10 goalies in the world who might be considered franchise cornerstones that you'd want to keep and let's generously say about 15 more goalies in the world who can fetch a pretty good return in a trade (obviously a few top 20 goalies are either overpaid or are old and declining which tanks their value) , any goalie outside of that range is worth very little or absolutely nothing
Now if you look at centers what is the 26th best center in the world worth? Based on points this year that would be Sean Monahan and I'd say he'd probably fetch a small fortune, the 60th best center can likely fetch a pretty decent return as well and even the 90th best center in the world would likely fetch quite a bit more than the 30th best goalie in the world. You could do the same for defense men and the value drop off comes even later than centers, the number of goalies that carry real value is a tiny little island and it's easy to fall short of the mark. Basically every single goalie you draft you should be able to say to yourself that this goalie has the potential to be one of the 20 best goaltenders in the world, if that isn't the case they probably aren't worth drafting cause you can pick one up who falls short of that mark through free agency with relative ease, there are a lot of goalies and not that many spots for them.
I'm not saying goalies aren't worth drafting, cause if you hit that franchise goalie jackpot it's great, but every swing you take on a goalie should be aiming for a homerun swing where as with centers or D you can be a lot more comfortable going for a bunt. Drafting goalies on mass isn't a sound strategy for asset accumulation unless you are absolutely tremendous at it, more than likely you'll end up with less than you invested in it. Drafting goalies on mass does increase your odds of getting that franchise goalie, but I think if you are competent scouting staff you should be just picking out the guys you really believe in rather than the bird shot in a general direction approach and hope you get lucky strategy.
