Klefbom is the most impactful d-man and a #1

[83to48]

you should consult a sarcasm radar technician, yours appears broken

welp
I will take this L
I guess I'm a little rattled by the constant misinformation on this site
My apologies Rangers bro

 

[Aceboogie]

Klefbom is not the best D in the league as GAR is stating (although he does have really good analytics by most metrics). The important thing about GAR is it should shine a light on players you should probably consider more. For example Ellis or Spurgeon. Klefbom is a great example of this: you should look at how he ranks and go, "ok maybe I should watch him more, or re-evaluate how I watch him because hes doing something right"

GAR or any metric shouldnt be looked as this definitive ranking system but more of a "who should I pay attention to". If you dont watch him and then knock GAR or any metric- you are doing it extremely wrong

Klefbom is a great to elite skater with an incredible shot. Hes got a great slap shot and wrist shot and ability to get it on net. Hes loves to join the rush and has great sense to do it. Hes got great IQ offensively and relies on really good positioning. Hes also a great passer and great at breaking the puck out. His weaknesses are that he plays a bit too passively in his own end and relies more on positioning than assertiveness which can lead to plays being made around him that should probably be stopped if he was more assertive and challenge forwards more. When he is assertive defensively hes looks like a rock defensively but he is inconsistent at doing that, the issue with many young D

Going forward, Klefbom should be a #1 D and should be in conversation for top 10-15 D in the league. Besides being inconsistent defensively he has next to no holes but still has a ton of potential. Hes only at 201 games in the NHL, so by 300 we should see that inconsistancy worked on and out of his game. He is at the same age/spot as Hedman/Subban and OEL were when they broke out, so next year should be his break out year in the eyes of the masses. This year was his breakout year for anybody who watched him or had any objectiveness in evaluation, even guys like Friedman had him in their Norris consideration

NORRIS TROPHY:

The Serious Contenders: Mark Giordano and Victor Hedman. Hedman had an incredible year, but recent results indicate those who miss the playoffs don’t win (see Drew Doughty and Erik Karlsson). I think you have to be consistent with that when there are other legit choices.
Also Considered: Drew Doughty, Cam Fowler, Dougie Hamilton, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Seth Jones, Roman Josi, Duncan Keith, Oscar Klefbom, Ryan Suter, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Shea Weber.

 

[Draiskull]

Klefbom is the best 2nd pairing #1D in the league

 

[Machinehead]

Take a look at the W column.

That's nice.

Human waste like Girardi, Bieksa, and Alzner also play on teams that win games.

Now, Larsson is better than the three of them put together (Larsson isn't terrible by any stretch) but the point is, wins mean less than nothing on the individual level.

 

[83to48]

That's nice.

Human waste like Girardi, Bieksa, and Alzner also play on teams that win games.

Now, Larsson is better than the three of them put together (Larsson isn't terrible by any stretch) but the point is, wins mean less than nothing on the individual level.

We are all still waiting for you to post the stats that show Larsson to be as mediocre as you claim.

 

[Aceboogie]

People can think whatever wonderful things about Larsson they want; it doesn't show up anywhere.

It does tho. It shows up in GAR and basically kills your argument that Klefboms GAR is only good because its relative to Larsson. Larsson himself has a strong GAR ranking. Larsson ranks 39th overall in GAR. So its a little weird you pride yourself on valuing advanced stats and not knowing this. Either you were honestly unaware but still talking definitively like you knew, you outright lieing. Whichever one it is, I hope with the new information you have now you will stop parading this false narrative in any future threads

 

[Aceboogie]

Now your comment on McDonaugh being so high due to playing with a poor Girardi is correct:

 

[Machinehead]

We are all still waiting for you to post the stats that show Larsson to be as mediocre as you claim.

You want me to post stats just so you can tell me they're wrong? Get them yourself, it's all public.

It does tho. It shows up in GAR and basically kills your argument that Klefboms GAR is only good because its relative to Larsson. Larsson himself has a strong GAR ranking. Larsson ranks 39th overall in GAR. So its a little weird you pride yourself on valuing advanced stats and not knowing this. Either you were honestly unaware but still talking definitively like you knew, you outright lieing

Then what drove Klefbom to be (by this measure) head and shoulders the best defenseman in the world if he isn't feasting off of a teammate like McDonagh was?

The consensus among Oilers fans seems to be he's good but not THAT good. The numbers say he's the best player in the league...

 

[Hictor Vedman*]

Klefbom > Doughty, Karlsson, Burns etc.

/s

Klefbom > Lidstrom, Orr, Bourque, Stevens, Niedermayer, Potvin.

 

[Aceboogie]

You want me to post stats just so you can tell me they're wrong? Get them yourself, it's all public.



Then what drove Klefbom to be (by this measure) head and shoulders the best defenseman in the world if he isn't feasting off of a teammate like McDonagh was?

The consensus among Oilers fans seems to be he's good but not THAT good. The numbers say he's the best player in the league...

No, what do you think. You are the ones making the claim. Either:
A) you value advanced stats and now you see Klefbom is legit
B) You watch the games and you can make your own opinion yourself and do not need Oiler fans opinions

You cant be saying you like analytics and value them, then when they disagree with your preconceived notions your do an about face and disregard them almost entirely. I think you can give credit where its due instead of trying to wiggle out of this one

For what its worth, my thoughts on Klefbom is that he does things extremely well that get brought out in GAR and analytics (aka good shot metrics, effiecent/effective player). But hes does other things that really stick out in fans minds, even Oilers fans minds. He makes mistakes on goals that Oiler fans hate and will recall and remember weeks after that mistake happens. Yet will make dozens or even hundreds of smaller great plays that do not stick out in a game and are not remembered, but they are caught in GAR. I think a majority of people that watch him evaluate him like they did/do Subban. The odd bad goal they are responsible for get blown out of proportion and the numerous good plays are overlooked

Majority of fans still subconsciously value D by the major plays (big hit, shot block or eye catching move). Klefbom is the anti thesis of this. He wont make a big hit but will cut off a player on a rush and turn puck the other way. He wont dangle out a team but hell be in great position to get a pass on a rush. If you know what to watch for, Klefbom is amazing

On the flip side, I think the things Klefbom does well do get overrated a bit in the GAR model as I have noticed similar D get valued very highly. There is really intangible things Klefbom does that impact a game that get ignored by GAR. Such as an untimely goal allowed that can cost a game or prevent a come back. While these do get massively overrated by fans who remember this play for a long time after, there is still a really impact in that it might cost a team 2 points. So hes not as good as GAR shows, but better than what fans will say.

Lastly: GAR also weighs penalties drawn/taken and the regular fan typically pays little attention to have important this is. Klefbom ranked the best in penalties taken in the GAR model and this is a major boost to his overall GAR model. However he still ranks the best in EV offense and defense combined

 

[Draiskull]

Klefbom had the offense this year but wasnt really the #1 Dman for Oilers.. He was sheltered by Larsson defensively and physically. Klefbom is a good #3 but a good top pairing if paired with Larsson.

 

[lomiller1]

I don't even really understand the graph. Is there a link to how these numbers of calculated? ie., why is Klefbom's EV offence worth ~3 games above replacement?

3 goals. not 3 games. The best players in the NHL are worth ~5 games total.

Here is the first of the 5 part article that explains it

https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/10/24/a-primer-on-dtmabouthearts-war-model/

The offensive score is a combination of boxscore numbers like goals and assists and the players impact on expected goals.

xGoals looks at every shot attempt for where it was taken from, what type of shot, if it's a rebound/rush shot and who the shooter was to calculate how many goals were likely to be scored using league averages for similar shots. A statistical formula is used to look at every skater on the ice when the shot is taken to assign them a "share" of these expected goals based on all the shot attempts they are on the ice for over the whole season.

 

[83to48]

You want me to post stats just so you can tell me they're wrong? Get them yourself, it's all public.



Then what drove Klefbom to be (by this measure) head and shoulders the best defenseman in the world if he isn't feasting off of a teammate like McDonagh was?

The consensus among Oilers fans seems to be he's good but not THAT good. The numbers say he's the best player in the league...

I wouldn't say they are wrong just wanted to make sure we are looking at the same thing. Because nothing on Corsica indicates Larsson as generally bad, quite the opposite really.

 

[Aceboogie]

Klefbom had the offense this year but wasnt really the #1 Dman for Oilers.. He was sheltered by Larsson defensively and physically. Klefbom is a good #3 but a good top pairing if paired with Larsson.

Id disagree pretty whole heartidly with this. Klefboms metrics improve away from Larsson (not drastic tho). Not to mention, Klefbom metrics were amazing before Larsson. I would say they are a great fit together, but Larsson is not really saving his butt or carrying him. Here is his metrics last year from a screen grab I had

For all the reasons I feel Klefbom gets underrated by fans, I think Larsson gets overrated. Larsson will throw the big hits and fans will love him for that. Larsson does everything fans love and is a throw back style of defensive D the majority love to watch. Larsson also does great things not shown in GAR or other metrics

 

[Stuzchuk]

Karlsson doesn't carry his defence corps the way Klef carries his.

ok with the statement that you just made ,I see that you dont know much about hockey, the sport that is being played on the ice and not behind a computer.

Let me give you an advice, when you get back from work next regular season, when you cook your diner, put NHLCI on they have eastern teams playing on there, I HIGHLY suggest that you watch more hockey other than the Edmonton Oilers... you quickly discover that there's 30 teams (31 in 2017) and that there's phenomenal players playing for other teams

 

[lomiller1]

You cant be saying you like analytics and value them, then when they disagree with your preconceived notions your do an about face and disregard them almost entirely. I think you can give credit where its due instead of trying to wiggle out of this one

Machinehead has been on the analytics side of most of these arguments. Like many I think he's a little unsure how to regard GAR/WAR when it disagrees with more established techniques. Eg It likes Shea Weber when many of the techniques used for the last 6-7 years do not. The black box nature to the statistical model involved can make it hard to figure out what it's seeing to reach this conclusion.

 

[McDNicks17]

Id disagree pretty whole heartidly with this. Klefboms metrics improve away from Larsson (not drastic tho). Not to mention, Klefbom metrics were amazing before Larsson. I would say they are a great fit together, but Larsson is not really saving his butt or carrying him

Keep in mind that Larsson was used defensively(39% DZFO) while Klefbom was used offensively(37% OZFO) while they were separate.

I wouldn't say Larsson was carrying him, but I think he was covering a lot of mistakes that Klef was making during the regular season.

 

[lomiller1]

He'll probably tell me the same thing he already told me, which is that it's an imperfect model heavily influenced by teammates.

I have it in black and white from Hohl himself that McDonagh scored as high as he did because of Girardi.

Like I said I think you are misunderstanding it. GAR is removing the impact of teammates, in this case the impact it's removing is a strong negative which is why it causes McDonagh score to go up.

 

[Aceboogie]

Machinehead has been on the analytics side of most of these arguments. Like many I think he's a little unsure how to regard GAR/WAR when it disagrees with more established techniques. Eg It likes Shea Weber when many of the techniques used for the last 6-7 years do not. The black box nature to the statistical model involved can make it hard to figure out what it's seeing to reach this conclusion.

Thats true. Hell I dont fully understand GAR which is why I only treat it as a way to highlight certain players to further look at. But I do see really value in GAR because when it ranks players of the same team by GAR, the results more or less agree to fan concensus. Even tho it is blackbox, the results agree alot to generally held consensus (ofcourse with omittances or differences). So it must be doing something right

For example here is the GAR rankings for defensive impact:

On that list we see guys routinely ranked high by fans in terms for being good defensive D. Guys like Tanev, Brodin, Stralman, Vlasic, Weber, Doughty, OEL, Hamhuis. Do I think there is some exceptions even on this list? yes for example id question Lovejoy, Miller, Campbell. Also some guys probably missing. But more or less id say that list contains the right players. So for me Id probably say this list should highlight some players you probably didnt know were so good defensively, not use this a definitive ranking

 

[Aceboogie]

I wouldn't say they are wrong just wanted to make sure we are looking at the same thing. Because nothing on Corsica indicates Larsson as generally bad, quite the opposite really.

I agree. Generally all his relative stats are solid and so are raw stats. So when taking into consideration difficulty of minutes (2nd on Oilers), he analytics actually come out looking pretty good. Not sure how anyone can say his analytics look bad

 

[Ninety7]

That's nice.

Human waste like Girardi, Bieksa, and Alzner also play on teams that win games.

Now, Larsson is better than the three of them put together (Larsson isn't terrible by any stretch) but the point is, wins mean less than nothing on the individual level.

Larsson plays top competition every game. You're seriously trying to tell me that the oilers improvement this year (they were 29th last year), has nothing to do with larsson?

Okay man

You can point to all the colourful fancy graphs and one word twitter replies you want but it doesn't change the fact that you're just plain wrong.

And calling NHL players human waste is quite the statement. What do you do for your day job?

 

[83to48]

I agree. Generally all his relative stats are solid and so are raw stats. So when taking into consideration difficulty of minutes (2nd on Oilers), he analytics actually come out looking pretty good. Not sure how anyone can say his analytics look bad

If Larsson played third pair minutes his numbers would be mediocre. We both know he doesn't though and gets tasked with top comp. Not to the extremes of Vlasic and Braun but I think that's a good thing. No defenseman should be thrown to the wolves like that unless absolutely necessary like Larsson and Greene last year.

 

[Machinehead]

No, what do you think. You are the ones making the claim. Either:
A) you value advanced stats and now you see Klefbom is legit
B) You watch the games and you can make your own opinion yourself and do not need Oiler fans opinions

You cant be saying you like analytics and value them, then when they disagree with your preconceived notions your do an about face and disregard them almost entirely. I think you can give credit where its due instead of trying to wiggle out of this one

For what its worth, my thoughts on Klefbom is that he does things extremely well that get brought out in GAR and analytics (aka good shot metrics, effiecent/effective player). But hes does other things that really stick out in fans minds, even Oilers fans minds. He makes mistakes on goals that Oiler fans hate and will recall and remember weeks after that mistake happens. Yet will make dozens or even hundreds of smaller great plays that do not stick out in a game and are not remembered, but they are caught in GAR. I think a majority of people that watch him evaluate him like they did/do Subban. The odd bad goal they are responsible for get blown out of proportion and the numerous good plays are overlooked

Majority of fans still subconsciously value D by the major plays (big hit, shot block or eye catching move). Klefbom is the anti thesis of this. He wont make a big hit but will cut off a player on a rush and turn puck the other way. He wont dangle out a team but hell be in great position to get a pass on a rush. If you know what to watch for, Klefbom is amazing

On the flip side, I think the things Klefbom does well do get overrated a bit in the GAR model as I have noticed similar D get valued very highly. There is really intangible things Klefbom does that impact a game that get ignored by GAR. Such as an untimely goal allowed that can cost a game or prevent a come back. While these do get massively overrated by fans who remember this play for a long time after, there is still a really impact in that it might cost a team 2 points. So hes not as good as GAR shows, but better than what fans will say.

Lastly: GAR also weighs penalties drawn/taken and the regular fan typically pays little attention to have important this is. Klefbom ranked the best in penalties taken in the GAR model and this is a major boost to his overall GAR model. However he still ranks the best in EV offense and defense combined

I'm not completely disregarding it, I'm just trying to get to the bottom of Klefbom scoring the highest in the league.

I do think he's an excellent player, but I think we'll all agree he's not the best player in the NHL.

Maybe I'm wrong and it has nothing to do with Larsson.

I wouldn't say they are wrong just wanted to make sure we are looking at the same thing. Because nothing on Corsica indicates Larsson as generally bad, quite the opposite really.

It's not that he's bad, it's that he just...exists.

Over the course of his career, his relCF is just below -1. His relGF is barely, barely positive. His relxGF is barely, barely negative. These numbers are just a whole lot of nothing. White rice.

When he's on the ice, nothing happens. Nothing bad, nothing good, just nothing.

There's three types of players in this game - drivers who send play in the right direction, anchors who send play in the wrong direction, and passengers who just reflect what their teammates are doing. Adam Larsson is the definition to a T, of a passenger. There's nothing wrong with that. Ultimately, I think that's what the majority of players in the NHL are, and if you can eat minutes without being a negative, you're valuable in this league as a defenseman. That being said, I believe Klefbom is the driving force.

That's why I thought, Larsson, a guy who really doesn't leave a statistical dent, would cause his partner's impact numbers to go haywire.

Again, I could be wrong. Maybe there's some other reason Klefbom put up Bobby Orr numbers this year.

 

[Machinehead]

And calling NHL players human waste is quite the statement. What do you do for your day job?

I do my day job blindfolded better than a guy like Girardi does his, I'll just say that.

Talk about anchors; the Rangers are basically an AHL team when he's on the ice.

 

[lomiller1]

I'm not completely disregarding it, I'm just trying to get to the bottom of Klefbom scoring the highest in the league.

The short simple version is that it finds him to have decent offense, be one of the best in the league defensively and he takes very few penalties.

I guess the real question is why XPM (the only contributor to the 5v5 defense score) likes him so much defensively?

There's nothing wrong with that. Ultimately, I think that's what the majority of players in the NHL are, and if you can eat minutes without being a negative, you're valuable in this league as a defenseman. That being said, I believe Klefbom is the driving force.

That's why I thought, Larsson, a guy who really doesn't leave a statistical dent, would cause his partner's impact numbers to go haywire.

One scenario for why XPM likes Klefbom so much is that like you it finds Larsson to be ok, but not spectacular. If Larsson is a lot better defensivaly than XPM thinks, that defensive credit would get assigned to Klefbom instead elevating his score. Past history, however, suggests it's Klefbom driving the pairings considerable success and XPM is assigning most of the credit to him hence the high score.