Confirmed with Link: Kirby Dach signed to 4 year contract (3.3625M AAV)

[ReHabs]

You’re welcome. I find Leclerc to be particularly interesting, always trying to bring fresh perspectives to his segments.

Unfortunately, he didn’t go into detail about how he parsed the stats he was using but one could backtrace his coefficients by calculating how McDavid’s NHL stats worked out to precisely 71.8% of his junior production.

OHL total ppg = 1.72 ppg
NHL total ppg = 1.43 ppg

1.43/1.72 = 0.83

His final OHL season = 2.55 ppg
1.43/2.55 = 0.56

Only McDavid's ELC years in NHL = 256pts in 209gp = 1.22ppg

1.22/1.72 = 0.712

Ignoring last season entirely, McDavid's NHL ppg is 1.41 (hardly different)
1.41/1.72 = 0.82

Yeah I'm not sure how to work backward to this. I'm stumped. Can you harass him and find out his methodology?

WHL first round picks tend NOT to pan out and live upto the hype. Sure you'll get the odd Draisaitl, and defensive prospects seem to do ok out of the WHL (Byram looks impressive).. etc but the list of top 5 whl busts is a long one. Provorov, Jake Bean, Cody Glass, Nolan Patrick, Sam Reinhart...

Dach does worry me in that regard.

I think those three Manitoba boys the TSN crew were hyping up in the recent draft will all bust lol

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

WHL first round picks tend NOT to pan out and live upto the hype. Sure you'll get the odd Draisaitl, and defensive prospects seem to do ok out of the WHL (Byram looks impressive).. etc but the list of top 5 whl busts is a long one. Provorov, Jake Bean, Cody Glass, Nolan Patrick, Sam Reinhart...

Dach does worry me in that regard.

I'm not sure Provorov and Reinhart are busts, but the rest are.

 

[BlackEye from Xhekaj]

You’re talking potential and upside. We all want him to thrive, so we are on the same page. But, as of writing, no matter how slick his hands are a 30pt non-physical player with potential upside is still a 30pt non-physical player. Hughes is betting on more from Dach and I’ve already commended his conviction.

For a fan of a team that doesn’t have scoring talent and never has ppg players, I am not immune to looking at the stat sheet. I’d rather boring point producers than slick lanky non-producers.

When it came to Slafkovsky talk, I disagreed with a lot of your points.. here I like the take you have where, yes, Dach has potential to be a very good player, but at the moment is still in that potential phase. He's only 21, a big bodied forward who's had injuries etc.. 3.36m won't hurt at all if Dach tips out at 40pts over the next 4 years, but I'd also bet on him surpassing that myself.. now let's hope that he's fired up and ready to be a big contributor to the team.

 

[SlafySZN]

When it came to Slafkovsky talk, I disagreed with a lot of your points.. here I like the take you have where, yes, Dach has potential to be a very good player, but at the moment is still in that potential phase. He's only 21, a big bodied forward who's had injuries etc.. 3.36m won't hurt at all if Dach tips out at 40pts over the next 4 years, but I'd also bet on him surpassing that myself.. now let's hope that he's fired up and ready to be a big contributor to the team.

I bet he hit 40 points next season or very close.

 

[417]

WHL first round picks tend NOT to pan out and live upto the hype. Sure you'll get the odd Draisaitl, and defensive prospects seem to do ok out of the WHL (Byram looks impressive).. etc but the list of top 5 whl busts is a long one. Provorov, Jake Bean, Cody Glass, Nolan Patrick, Sam Reinhart...

Dach does worry me in that regard.

Should we be worried about Kaiden Guhle?

Or the Canes about Seth Jarvis?

Or Rangers about Brendan Schneider?

I really don't think a player's association to a particular league (at least not in the CHL), plays any impact on their probability of being NHL players.

This is like believing that a Quebec born player would play "harder" for the Montreal Canadiens then other teams.

The truth is 1st round picks in general, tend to NOT pan out...whether that's OHL, QMJHL, WHL, Euro leagues, etc.

 

[Captain Mountain]

WHL first round picks tend NOT to pan out and live upto the hype. Sure you'll get the odd Draisaitl, and defensive prospects seem to do ok out of the WHL (Byram looks impressive).. etc but the list of top 5 whl busts is a long one. Provorov, Jake Bean, Cody Glass, Nolan Patrick, Sam Reinhart...

Dach does worry me in that regard.

Jones? Morrisey? Pulock? Theodore? Barzal?

Of the guys you listed, Patrick and Reinhart the only top 5 picks and only Patrick is busting (and injuries play a pretty big part).

Don't think there's anything to that compared to the OHL and CHL beyond the 2017 draft overrating the WHL class.

 

[Habs]

Should we be worried about Kaiden Guhle?

Or the Canes about Seth Jarvis?

Or Rangers about Brendan Schneider?

I really don't think a player's association to a particular league (at least not in the CHL), plays any impact on their probability of being NHL players.

This is like believing that a Quebec born player would play "harder" for the Montreal Canadiens then other teams.

The truth is 1st round picks in general, tend to NOT pan out...whether that's OHL, QMJHL, WHL, Euro leagues, etc.

No, I pointed out dmen from the WHL have a better transition and success rate than forwards.

 

[Habs]

Jones? Morrisey? Pulock? Theodore? Barzal?

Of the guys you listed, Patrick and Reinhart the only top 5 picks and only Patrick is busting (and injuries play a pretty big part).

Don't think there's anything to that compared to the OHL and CHL beyond the 2017 draft overrating the WHL class.

I mean I follow the WHL pretty close, go to a lot of games so I'm always rooting for the boys to make an impact in the NHL. It's just not common for top 5 WHL draft picks to carry on the same success they had in the WHL, not the last 15 years anyways. Of course you can find great players that have made it, but I'm talking TOP rated WHL players busting....

BTW I'm rooting for Dach, I hope he becomes the player he was drafted to be.

 

[Runner77]

Dach was also like 5'9" and hit a growth spurt coming into the WHL.. so his situation is certainly unique. You can look at someone like Getzlaf who actually produced less than Dach in his draft year.

The biggest issue for Dach was Chicago rushed him into the NHL.. he needed another year in the WHL, at least. Anyone could see that he was still growing and getting used to his body. They did a huge disservice there.

We will certainly see but his skill-set has always been undeniable and the potential is there. That Blades team wasn't very good either, tbf.

Didn’t Chicago also rush/ mishandle Dach’s return from his wrist injury?

 

[SlafySZN]

Didn’t Chicago also rush/ mishandle Dach’s return from his wrist injury?

Yes, they made him play 3 months after the incident. He came back put up 10 points in 18 games but he wasn’t fully healed so had to step back again and i guess last off season he wasn’t able to train properly because he still had to heal the wrist. He said it’s 100% ok now.

 

[Runner77]

I'm generally not a fan of making comparisons with players.

Just because Kotkaniemi and Dach were both chosen 3rd overall and are "lanky" (though i'd suggest Dach is/was more physically mature than Kotkaniemi was) doesn't mean one has to make parallels.

Joe Vrbetic and Cayden Primeau are both 2 big athletic goalies drafted in the 7th round, does that mean Vrbetic is the next Primeau?

That was Baseball Prospectus’ bread and butter. Different sport but same flawed thinking.

Physical comparables are too easy and are fraught with pitfalls as the intellectual component varies so much from one player to another.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

This f***ing guy hasn't scored yet. HuGo is a NoGo

 

[bsl]

Love these win-win structure contracts.

For the player it's a big difference to get a total 13.4 M compared to around 4 M for a bridge deal, basically being set financially for life and not have to worry about potential career ending injuries.

For the team obviously huge potential if the player improves + have him motivated to get a big contract down the line + having him still be RFA at the end of the contract.

Tough to get bargain contracts nowadays and this seems like a good way to do it - giving life changing money to younger players in exchange for potentially lower salary and better chances to keep the player long term at a reasonable salary if everything works out.

Shows Hughes really gets it when it comes to what players really need from their organization. Gives me hope the Habs can be this team that has a great reputation for treating their players right which will be crucial for building a contender long term in the cap era.

Intelligent post

 

[Habs13]

Another great move from Hughes. Risky, but high reward. I dig it.

 

[Runner77]

Another great move from Hughes. Risky, but high reward. I dig it.

Looks low risk to me. Even in a worst case scenario, a buy out would only cost one third of the contract given the player’s age.

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

Let's say Dach turns into a 50pt #2C in 2 years from now.

And we factor in a cap increase...how much would it cost the Habs to sign Dach to an extension then?

Certainly more than 3.3M...

Right?

Well...there's the reasoning.

Start by 30 points xD before 50
Reasoning could be off because the salary cap is supposed to be going up in 2 years by alot

 

[417]

Start by 30 points xD before 50
Reasoning could be off because the salary cap is supposed to be going up in 2 years by alot

Well hence why I said in 2 years...

So if the salary cap is going up then, in this hypothetical scenario, his contract would be up..

I'm guessing a 50pt C would cost alot more than 3.36M per year.

 

[HLLYWD99]

Consider Dach as revenge for 1971.

 

[Runner77]

Consider Dach as revenge for 1971.

How so? We picked Lafleuf first overall in 1971.

 

[Toene]

Consider Dach as revenge for 1971.

I don't get it

 

[Runner77]

I don't get it

He probably means the Doug Wickenheiser pick in 1980. I’m guessing he got the year wrong.

Jeez, that’s a hell of a long time to exact revenge.

Also, “revenge” on who or what — bad karma?

 

[Toene]

Love these win-win structure contracts.

For the player it's a big difference to get a total 13.4 M compared to around 4 M for a bridge deal, basically being set financially for life and not have to worry about potential career ending injuries.

For the team obviously huge potential if the player improves + have him motivated to get a big contract down the line + having him still be RFA at the end of the contract.

Tough to get bargain contracts nowadays and this seems like a good way to do it - giving life changing money to younger players in exchange for potentially lower salary and better chances to keep the player long term at a reasonable salary if everything works out.

Shows Hughes really gets it when it comes to what players really need from their organization. Gives me hope the Habs can be this team that has a great reputation for treating their players right which will be crucial for building a contender long term in the cap era.

Such a wise and outside-the-box move to hire an agent as a GM. The guy is a very astute negociator and knows what players want (and probably knows their agent to boot) and we're starting to see the results. My favorite Gorton move yet.

The cherry on top : he managed to grab a french-speaking one (who speaks better french than MB even if it's the former's second language ).

Quel coup.

 

[HuGo Sham]

He probably means the Doug Wickenheiser pick in 1980. I’m guessing he got the year wrong.

Jeez, that’s a hell of a long time to exact revenge.

Also, “revenge” on who or what — bad karma?

he's referencing 71 Stanley Cup habs won over hawks when Dryden was MVP.


what happened to my PK thread? lmao

 

[jrom]

A while ago HuGo said that he wanted to make MTL a place where players want to come play (MSL being a great example, the attention to locker room vibe, etc).

I think we’re starting to see some of that with Pitlick & Dach contracts.

Even the players being traded out don’t get shafted: Lek with his friend Rantanen, Toffoli, Kulak, Petry with the Penguin old timers, even Romy (seems Sorokin & him are great friends that played together on CSKA).

he's referencing 71 Stanley Cup habs won over hawks when Dryden was MVP.


what happened to my PK thread? lmao

Indeed…

 

[Runner77]

he's referencing 71 Stanley Cup habs won over hawks when Dryden was MVP.


what happened to my PK thread? lmao

So that Hawks fan is saying that Dach is a Trojan horse?

As for your thread, you got the first time rumour mongerer treatment. You should have insisted on NDAs.