khan : hronek flourishing

[WingsMJN2965]

Lock him up asap. 6-7 yrs, $4.5 seems fair for all. Kinda like Josi when he signed for cheap & long term on his prior contract.

You have to get the player to agree to that.

But it would be nice, especially with the TV deal and Seattle boosting the cap.

 

[Claypool]

I like Hronek but not enough to lock him up long-term just yet. This is his first full season in the NHL.

 

[Henkka]

Looked those defensive pairing -stats from Natural stat trick and did find some interesting things.

I usually combine many advanced stats to get a larger picture and not pointing for any single stat from where you could argue anybody being great and anybody being bad.

But so far, what I found, would be this:

Our best possible pairings:

DeKeyser - Green
Nemeth - Hronek
Cholowski - Bowey
Lashoff - Biega
(Daley)

Green has played his best games with DeKeyser and DeKeyser had also good combined stats with Cholowski. DeKeyser is now injured and Green proably traded, so we don't see this pair anymore at Red Wings.

Playing with Nemeth will make almost everybody look better than playing with somebody else. He really looks like a real deal to get extended contract, thanks to this.

What comes to latest games, Bowey-Hronek pairing really hurts defensively. Offensively they are great. Like ideally, Bowey-Green and Nemeth-Hronek would be more winning option (with better defence), so I can't think anything but Green is getting time with Nemeth to bolster his trade value. Could guarantee we'll see Nemeth-Hronek again after the deadline, is Green gone or not.

One thing what is almost crazy, is how good Cholowski and Bowey look together in defensive numbers. Like, both have look bad defensively with other defencemen, but together they have just clicked somehow.

Trevor Daley has sucked almost with everybody. Especially with right-handed defencemen, when playing on the left side. That's very weird.

Lashoff-Biega has decent numbers. No offence, but won't let goals either. That's rare in our current environment.

 

[raymond23]

Looked those defensive pairing -stats from Natural stat trick and did find some interesting things.

I usually combine many advanced stats to get a larger picture and not pointing for any single stat from where you could argue anybody being great and anybody being bad.

But so far, what I found, would be this:

Our best possible pairings:

DeKeyser - Green
Nemeth - Hronek
Cholowski - Bowey
Lashoff - Biega
(Daley)

Green has played his best games with DeKeyser and DeKeyser had also good combined stats with Cholowski. DeKeyser is now injured and Green proably traded, so we don't see this pair anymore at Red Wings.

Playing with Nemeth will make almost everybody look better than playing with somebody else. He really looks like a real deal to get extended contract, thanks to this.

What comes to latest games, Bowey-Hronek pairing really hurts defensively. Offensively they are great. Like ideally, Bowey-Green and Nemeth-Hronek would be more winning option (with better defence), so I can't think anything but Green is getting time with Nemeth to bolster his trade value. Could guarantee we'll see Nemeth-Hronek again after the deadline, is Green gone or not.

One thing what is almost crazy, is how good Cholowski and Bowey look together in defensive numbers. Like, both have look bad defensively with other defencemen, but together they have just clicked somehow.

Trevor Daley has sucked almost with everybody. Especially with right-handed defencemen, when playing on the left side. That's very weird.

Lashoff-Biega has decent numbers. No offence, but won't let goals either. That's rare in our current environment.

A healthy DeKeyser completely changes the outlook of that defense... still bad but at least capable of playing defense. Our organizational needs have quickly changed from rhd to lhd.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I'd be all for it.

Would Hronek though? Does he look at what he has accomplished so far and what happened with guys like Josi and Klingberg and demand more cash or less term?

Doesn't hurt to ask and point at Josi or Klingberg. Maybe you gotta go like 7x5.5 or something instead of 7x4, but I mean, like 38.5m over 7 years guaranteed is a nice chunk of change. A lot of these contracts for super young players are kind of approaching the "man, do I really want to risk giving up a guaranteed 30-50M for 7 years? Because you could sign cheap and have some jackass twohand your knee and all of a sudden instead of 50M, you get your 3x7 and nobody wants to sign you for more than a reclamation deal. This is really Hronek's first full season in Detroit. It's impressive as hell, but who knows.

 

[Henkka]

A healthy DeKeyser completely changes the outlook of that defense... still bad but at least capable of playing defense. Our organizational needs have quickly changed from rhd to lhd.

I think next season we*ll have:

Nemeth - Hronek
DeKeyser - Seider
Cholowski-Bowey

I still wonder that Cholo-Bowey working together. It's based havily using them on offzone faceoffs, but so be it, if it works. I think all DeKeyser, Nemeth, Seider and Hronek should split def-zone starts at next season, and that's the way to go if we don't sign any outsider which would change things.

 

[14ari13]

I am not for signing Hronek long term. It is a gamble. We cant afford to gamble here. We have had more than enough of bad deals.

 

[HisNoodliness]

I am not for signing Hronek long term. It is a gamble. We cant afford to gamble here. We have had more than enough of bad deals.

I'm in the opposite camp. Our bad contracts are slowly timing themselves out and we have no need for current cap space. Overpay Hronek now to have him cheaper later. If his play degenerates then that'd be unfortunate... But I don't think his cap would hurt us that much as without an effective Hronek we're going to be bad regardless for at least another 4 seasons.

The potential benefit of having him locked in for half price in 4 years if he's still good is so worth it. Having a few good underpaid players is key to winning in the cap era.

Also being risk-averse is a bad management strategy in general I think. It leads to your team following the natural path of slowly improving to middling playoff team before sinking back to middling lottery team. To access the ends of the distribution you have to accumulate more talent in a short period of time than the rest of the league can. That involves taking risks which don't always work out but that's where the fun is.

 

[Hen Kolland]

I am not for signing Hronek long term. It is a gamble. We cant afford to gamble here. We have had more than enough of bad deals.

The only long term deal that I have seen suggested is 4.5M over 6-7 years. I thumbed through some data and looking at the defensemen in the NHL with higher point per game averages on non-ELC deals and looked at their current salary. There are 20 players on their second or greater contract with higher PPG clips right now. The average salary is $6.13M.

He's currently 22 and under contract at 23. If you can lock Hronek up at $4.5M from the age of 24 through 30...that is an absolute steal. Even if he doesn't progress another iota, you have a strong contract for a good offensive defenseman.

And speaking from the other side, if I am Hronek or his agent, I don't accept that deal. I anticipate the team getting better next year, with more firepower, with more help on the blueline, and more competent goaltending than Howard. I believe my case grows even more next year.

 

[FabricDetails]

Should the Red Wings ever get back to intense and long playoff runs, I can see him being either the perpetrator or the victim of a really dirty and infamous play.

Off the top of my head I'm remembering Alfredsson on Tucker or Weber on Zetterberg and I think to myself, "I can totally see Hronek being a part of that kind of MOD..."

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

The only long term deal that I have seen suggested is 4.5M over 6-7 years. I thumbed through some data and looking at the defensemen in the NHL with higher point per game averages on non-ELC deals and looked at their current salary. There are 20 players on their second or greater contract with higher PPG clips right now. The average salary is $6.13M.

He's currently 22 and under contract at 23. If you can lock Hronek up at $4.5M from the age of 24 through 30...that is an absolute steal. Even if he doesn't progress another iota, you have a strong contract for a good offensive defenseman.

And speaking from the other side, if I am Hronek or his agent, I don't accept that deal. I anticipate the team getting better next year, with more firepower, with more help on the blueline, and more competent goaltending than Howard. I believe my case grows even more next year.

Doesn't hurt to offer it. They might say no... they might say kick it up to 5.5 instead of 4.5, which with the inflation of the cap, is about what Josi and Klingberg signed for on their deals. Right now is absolutely the time to gamble on a contract for a guy like Hronek. If he does exactly this for 7 years? He's worth 5.5M. He's quite likely to improve as this is his first full year in the NHL. Sign him now and you have the opportunity to have a deal like Josi's where it is an absolute steal. Would you rather have Hronek or Jake Gardiner? Jake Gardiner as a UFA got 4.15x4. I'd certainly take the risk on Hronek at 7x4.5 or 7x5.5 that he continues to get better and better.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Doesn't hurt to offer it. They might say no... they might say kick it up to 5.5 instead of 4.5, which with the inflation of the cap, is about what Josi and Klingberg signed for on their deals. Right now is absolutely the time to gamble on a contract for a guy like Hronek. If he does exactly this for 7 years? He's worth 5.5M. He's quite likely to improve as this is his first full year in the NHL. Sign him now and you have the opportunity to have a deal like Josi's where it is an absolute steal. Would you rather have Hronek or Jake Gardiner? Jake Gardiner as a UFA got 4.15x4. I'd certainly take the risk on Hronek at 7x4.5 or 7x5.5 that he continues to get better and better.

Of course. You have to gamble on this one, because if he’s not a guy, your rebuild is already going to stagnate

 

[ShelbyZ]

Hard to get a good read on how Yzerman handled RFA dmen in Tampa because there's a pretty sizeable gap where Hronek fits between Hedman and others that he signed, but just for comparison sake, this is what Hedman's 1st extension looked like:

-Signed early (Dec. 1) in the 3rd year of his ELC after 2 full seasons
-Backloaded 5 year $20M deal that took him into his first year of UFA eligibility
-Salary ranged from $3 to $5.75M a season
-$4M cap hit, which was around 6.2% of the cap at that time (a little over $5M in todays cap)

 

[Winger98]

I think next season we*ll have:

Nemeth - Hronek
DeKeyser - Seider
Cholowski-Bowey

I still wonder that Cholo-Bowey working together. It's based havily using them on offzone faceoffs, but so be it, if it works. I think all DeKeyser, Nemeth, Seider and Hronek should split def-zone starts at next season, and that's the way to go if we don't sign any outsider which would change things.

I'd let Cholo start the year in GR and work his way up for a change. Instead, sign someone like Andy Greene or Brenden Dillon to hold down that lost spot on the left side for a couple of years. Someone we could just as easily move to the pressbox and not really blink an eye at it, but who also won't be a total disaster to put on the ice next season.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

The only long term deal that I have seen suggested is 4.5M over 6-7 years. I thumbed through some data and looking at the defensemen in the NHL with higher point per game averages on non-ELC deals and looked at their current salary. There are 20 players on their second or greater contract with higher PPG clips right now. The average salary is $6.13M.

He's currently 22 and under contract at 23. If you can lock Hronek up at $4.5M from the age of 24 through 30...that is an absolute steal. Even if he doesn't progress another iota, you have a strong contract for a good offensive defenseman.

And speaking from the other side, if I am Hronek or his agent, I don't accept that deal. I anticipate the team getting better next year, with more firepower, with more help on the blueline, and more competent goaltending than Howard. I believe my case grows even more next year.

I proposed the 6-7 @$4.5m, but would go as high as $4.9/7yrs. We need our Keith/Josi type of contract steal, then pay him close to mkt.value @age 30 for 5 yrs.

 

[Tetsuo]

I proposed the 6-7 @$4.5m, but would go as high as $4.9/7yrs. We need our Keith/Josi type of contract steal, then pay him close to mkt.value @age 30 for 5 yrs.

I agree with these types of offers in principle but as we have seen with RFAs recently they may sacrifice long term security to be more likely to cash in on Seattle + the New TV deal. Something like 4.5 x 3 but the contract is backloaded so the qualifying offer is at least 6 or 7 million.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Hronek vs. NHL D: 28th in D pts., 29th p/gp, tied for 26th in EV pts w/Werenski (42gp), Fowler, Petry, Skjei. Top 30 or better in 3 offensive categories + 22nd in TOI. He hits 50+ next year with a better & healthy roster. Already defends like a low end #3, though he's had a rough few games, we know he looks worse b/c of our team.

Edit: also tied w/Chabot @31st for PP pts. Also the greatest EN goal of all time.

 

[Dotter]

Who would you compare Hronek to? What class/tier is he in with comparable players?

 

[Hen Kolland]

Who would you compare Hronek to? What class/tier is he in with comparable players?

I’d hope he can find himself in the same breath as some of the better offensive defensemen in the league at a certain point. Someone like Keith Yandle would be a nice player for him at his best. I don’t think Hronek will ever be the #1 for a good hockey team, but I think he could be the #1 powerplay guy and an effective middle pair guy at even strength once the team grows around him.

Ryan Ellis would be another one.

 

[Henkka]

Who would you compare Hronek to? What class/tier is he in with comparable players?

I think that "Faulk" is pretty close.

 

[Dotter]

I think that "Faulk" is pretty close.

Interesting. Good comparison I think. I didn't realize how many points Hronek has put up until I recently checked. All said and done, Hronek might be a better point producer than Faulk, but defensively, do you give the edge to Faulk?

Hronek has played under 100 NHL games and I might be too hard on him, but his defensive game leaves a lot to be desired.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Who would you compare Hronek to? What class/tier is he in with comparable players?

As someone mentioned, Ryan Ellis. @start of 18-19 camp I stated "Timonen/Zidlicky+". Glad SY hired that NSH guy this summer.

Edit:

compared him to " Torey Krug-lite?/ Kimmo Timmonen / Kenny Jonsson (NYI)"
https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/what-current-past-nhlers-do-our-prospects-remind-you-of.2538045/


& "Krug/Timmonen Hybrid or something like that"
Hronek will be our Krug/Timmonen Hybrid

 

[Winger98]

I'm still reminded of Letang. If not him, Daryl Sydor.

 

[newfy]

Hronek has played under 100 NHL games and I might be too hard on him, but his defensive game leaves a lot to be desired.

Definitely too hard on him. Its his first full season on the worst team in a long time. Yes his defense needs improvement but you even notice a big difference when hes paired with Nemeth compared to other guys. When the wings have talent around him it will mask some of that defensive issues and he also has another 4 years or so of developing to do. Hronek s probably the player on this team I'm the least worried about really.

His first 82 game she had like 9 goals and 42 points, thats top pairing production his first full season at 21 years old. Hes not perfect defensively but hes already playing D like a number 3 or 4 offensive dman at his age.

 

[deca guard]

it would help hroneks game if he quit constantly taking the big telegraphed wind up shots that goalies can easily track and add in a bunch of fake slappers that he holds up on while looking to pass or skate in closer for a wrister instead , wasting too many possesions on real low percentage shots . though i see a bunch of that being determined by the coach to happen